605
FXUS65 KABQ 041137
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
437 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 427 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Snow showers will taper off tonight around the region. Slick
  travel is likely for the Thursday morning commute in many areas
  and patchy freezing fog in eastern New Mexico may reduce
  visibility at times.

- Strong northwest crosswinds will create difficult travel across
  east central New Mexico Saturday, especially for large and high-
  profile vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1248 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

There are currently two batches of precipitation ongoing around the
area tonight (as of Midnight). The first batch of precipitation is
almost all snow and is located in central NM, extending from I-40
northward to Red River. This showery snowfall (mostly graupel) is
associated with the cold center of the 500mb Low, located in west-
central NM. This area of snow will slowly trek eastward over the
next few hours, with convective showers continuously regenerating.
This will generate brief periods of snow in the Albuquerque metro
where temps are currently hovering just above freezing. Temperatures
will fall overnight, allowing for localized accumulations up to 1",
which will make for slick travel in the morning. The Santa Fe and
Los Alamos areas will likely receive another 1-3" between now and
sunrise, with slightly higher amounts over the surrounding high
terrain in the Jemez mountains, southern Sangre de Cristo mountains,
and the Sandia/Manzano mountains where hi-res models are the most
bullish for additional accumulations.

The second area of precip in south-central and eastern NM is
associated with a SW/NE oriented jet streak with max winds around
130kts. The divergence aloft has generated widespread light
rain/snow, which will accumulate anywhere from a trace to 2" across
the eastern plains. Temperatures have just recently dropped below
freezing along I-40 between Santa Rosa and the TX border. While snow
likely won`t accumulate on major roadways in this portion of the
state, sub-freezing temps overnight will create areas of black ice
for the Thursday morning commute.

Water Vapor imagery shows that dry air has begun to punch into
southwestern NM, with subsidence and clearing skies in the wake of
the trough axis. This along with the exiting jet streak will rapidly
end precipitation during the early morning hours, with only a few
lingering snow showers in the eastern plains and Sangre de Cristo
mountains after sunrise. Areas of freezing fog are expected to
develop throughout central and eastern NM after snow ends early this
morning, adding to the already tricky travel. Fog may persist
through the late morning hours, until the trough axis swings through
and sfc humidities drop. Fog and low clouds will give way to mostly
clear skies in the afternoon around the region. It will be a chilly
early winter day with highs in the 30s and 40s in most areas, which
is around 5 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. Temperatures warm
slightly Friday, remaining below seasonal averages areawide. A light
northwest breeze will develop in the afternoon in the highlands east
of the central mountain chain, with light winds elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Northwest flow will continue over New Mexico next week as ridging
slowly builds over the eastern Pacific. Gradually rising heights
will result in progressively warmer temps each afternoon, rising to
as much as 15 degrees above seasonal averages by the end of next
week. These warm temps combined with mostly sunny skies each
afternoon will likely melt much of the fresh snow outside of the
high elevations >9500 feet. This pattern will be conducive for the
development of a northwest breeze in the typical windy areas east of
the central mountain chain each afternoon, with minor impacts
confined to traveling high profile vehicles.

Towards the end of next week, a minority of ensembles (~20%) are
showing the ridge breaking down just enough to bring the jet stream
far enough south for a few storm systems to skirt the northern
mountains of New Mexico. Even if this scenario pans out, any
significant precipitation looks unlikely through the second week of
December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Snow showers in central and eastern NM will taper off by 15Z. MVFR
to IFR cigs are present across most of central and eastern NM as
of 12Z. Low cigs will be more persistent in eastern NM, while
they are more intermittent in central and northern areas. Freezing
fog has begun to develop east of the central mountain chain and
will likely expand in coverage the next few hours before
diminishing after sunrise. Low clouds and fog will clear from west
to east through the morning, with clearing likely by around 21Z.
There is a moderate chance that IFR cigs develop near the
northwest high terrain tonight, with a low chance (10-20%) that
these cigs push into KFMN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1248 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Snow showers will taper off early this morning, giving way to
dry conditions the rest of the day. Northwest flow will persist over
the region for the next 7+ days, with temperatures gradually rising
each of the next several days until they`re well-above average by
the middle of next week. Afternoon humidities will trend down as
temperatures rise as well, with sub-25% afternoon humidities in
portions of southwest and east-central NM each afternoon next week.
A light to moderate breeze will develop in eastern NM each
afternoon, with the strongest winds on Saturday afternoon in the
Central Highlands where gusts could reach as high as 45 mph.
Ventilation will be best on Friday and Saturday when winds are
slightly stronger, with widespread poor ventilation prevailing on
all other days through next Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  37  19  39  21 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  36  10  39   9 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  36  13  38  17 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  40  13  45  17 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  39  16  43  20 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  44  13  47  17 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  39  14  43  19 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  43  22  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  41  18  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  51  16  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  55  20  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31   8  35  11 /  10   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  35  18  38  23 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  36  18  42  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  32  13  36  17 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  32   9  35  12 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  30   3  36  11 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  34   9  36  12 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  38  14  43  17 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  41  16  44  17 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  36  21  39  22 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  38  17  39  19 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  25  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  20  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  22  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  46  17  47  18 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  44  21  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  45  17  46  17 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  45  20  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  46  18  47  19 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  39  23  41  26 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  44  22  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  51  23  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  35  18  37  23 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  38  18  40  25 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  38  15  40  21 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  14  40  17 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  33  17  36  20 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  39  18  42  22 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  20  43  22 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  47  25  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  42  26  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  34  13  42  18 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  36  13  46  15 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  39  11  45  13 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  14  43  18 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  37  20  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  34  15  44  17 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  42  17  49  19 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  40  25  47  25 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  20  51  22 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  43  26  54  25 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  44  27  55  25 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  25  53  26 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  47  23  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  44  25  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  47  22  56  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16