140
FXUS65 KABQ 011930
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1230 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

- A strong west and southwest crosswind will impact travel over
  east central areas on Tuesday afternoon, then a potentially
  stronger west and northwest crosswind will impact travel over
  east central and southeast areas on Saturday.

- Accumulating snow is expected Wednesday through Thursday
  morning, with the northern mountains and adjacent highlands
  receiving a few inches.

- Travel may become difficult through mountain passes and along
  Interstates 25 and 40 due to falling and accumulating snow
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Breezy north to northwest winds aloft behind a trough axis continue
to clear out the skies across the Land of Enchantment today. A few
breezes up to 30mph are likely to occur through Farmington,
Albuquerque, and out near Clines Corners. Otherwise, temperatures
remain below average today as a cold air mass continues to reside in
eastern NM. Overnight, calm and clear conditions will work to bring
down temperatures area wide, especially across eastern NM. Many
locations will very likely see lows in the teens to low 20s across
the area, with mountainous regions getting into the single digits.
Concurrently, upper level westerly flow over the central mountain
chain increases (~20-30kt 700mb winds overnight), creating breezy to
windy conditions across the mountaintops of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. This includes the chances for mountain waves to form, as
cross sections show a well defined area of negative omega with
sloping, packed isentropes. Throughout Tuesday morning and mid
afternoon, upper level flow further strengthens (~40-45kts at 700mb)
and a surface trough develops across northeast NM. The combination
of these two provides a setup for breezy conditions across eastern
NM, mainly from Clines Corners eastward along I-40. 40mph and
greater gusts are likely near Clines (70% chance) and are possible
near Tucumcari and Clovis (30% chance). These west winds will flow
down the sloping terrain in eastern NM, raising temperatures up to
the high 50s and low 60s, good for near to slightly above early
December averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Into Wednesday, flow aloft decreases ahead of the next approaching
trough. This trough is expected to dive down through the
Intermountain West to the Four Corners region on Wednesday, before
moving through NM Wednesday night into Thursday. Models and
ensembles are in very good agreement that this system should remain
an open wave rather than becoming a closed low. This should allow
the system to move through the area quicker than if it were to be a
closed low. Another feature that will assist this system is a
backdoor cold front pushing into northeast NM through the day
Wednesday. With the upslope surface flow against the central
mountains along with the synoptic ascent provided by the trough, the
northern mountains and adjacent highlands have a very good chance to
see accumulating snow. Current probabilities have at least a 50%
chance for 2" of snowfall from Clines Corners to Glorieta, with
increasing probabilities further north for the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. For the northern mountains, there is a good chance that
another round of Winter Weather Advisories may be needed due to
snowfall accumulation. Locations along the I-25 corridor of the east
slopes of the Sangres have a solid chance (50-60%) to see slick and
icy roads resulting in minor travel impacts from snowfall. Similar
probabilities exist for I-40 from Moriarty to Santa Rosa. All in
all, while the mountains have seen several snowfall events so far,
some lower elevation locations may see their first appreciable
snowfall event of the season.

After this next system passes, northwest flow dominates the region.
Breezy conditions are favored through the afternoons of the late
week into next weekend, with Saturday favored to feature the
strongest winds up in the 40-45mph range of highest gusts.
Temperatures should response by gradually increasing through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Clearing skies continue through the late morning and early afternoon
hours with breezy northwest winds (gusts 20-30kts) along a general
line from KFMN to KAEG to KCQC to KSRR. Winds taper off after 00z
west of the central mountain chain. Upper level westerlies increase
along the ridgetops of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains after 06z,
raising the potential for mountain wave activity along and east of
the mountains. Concurrently, gusts across eastern NM from KCQC to
KTCC begin to increase past 12z, with a good chance of 35kt gusts
near KCQC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days. Breezy conditions are likely across eastern NM Tuesday
afternoon, as well as across the mountaintops of the central
mountain chain. Humidity values may drop low enough where a few
locales may see extremely brief periods of critical fire weather
conditions, but there is very little concern for any rapid fire
spread as ERCs remain well below the 50th percentile. Snow returns
to the northern mountains and some of the eastern plains Wednesday
through Thursday, then breezy conditions return to end the week.
Humidity values are likely to remain much too high for any rapid
fire spread concern with these breezy conditions returning, and the
recent rain and snow should continue to lessen concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  22  44  26  42 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  10  43  16  41 /   0   0   0  50
Cuba............................  16  43  21  40 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  14  47  21  41 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  19  47  24  41 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  14  52  21  46 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  19  52  22  47 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  25  54  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  22  52  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  20  58  23  53 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  25  62  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  10  39  15  35 /   0   0   0  50
Los Alamos......................  22  44  26  39 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  19  47  24  42 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  17  42  21  37 /   0   0   0  50
Red River.......................  12  35  15  28 /   0   0   0  60
Angel Fire......................   2  41   9  34 /   0   0   0  40
Taos............................  12  45  17  40 /   0   0   0  40
Mora............................  16  50  21  38 /   0   0   0  20
Espanola........................  18  50  20  46 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  23  45  26  42 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  19  46  23  44 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  29  48  32  49 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  24  50  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  22  52  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  25  51  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  19  53  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  25  52  27  50 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  19  52  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  23  52  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  21  52  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  27  47  30  46 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  25  51  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  25  58  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  23  45  26  44 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  24  45  27  45 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  20  47  24  46 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  12  50  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  19  45  24  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  21  49  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  22  49  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  27  53  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  26  50  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  14  50  19  32 /   0   0   0  40
Raton...........................  11  53  19  37 /   0   0   0  50
Springer........................  12  57  20  41 /   0   0   0  30
Las Vegas.......................  17  53  23  40 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  19  56  27  38 /   0   0   0  20
Roy.............................  16  57  25  41 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  16  61  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  22  56  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  18  62  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  19  58  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  18  60  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  16  61  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  22  63  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  23  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  21  61  33  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77