878
FXUS65 KABQ 142345 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Isolated thunderstorms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph
  across far eastern New Mexico for the next couple of afternoons.
  Gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms are also possible
  around the southern high terrain each afternoon.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas today
  through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures.

- Gusty west winds will return on Tuesday. The dry and gusty
  conditions may allow any recent wildfires that were started by
  lightning to grow rapidly, especially over western New Mexico
  where fuels are very dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A ridge of high pressure is strengthening over southwestern NM and
will continue to do so through Sunday. This will bring rising
temperatures, drier air, and reduced shower and storm coverage to
northern and central NM, but it will not fully suppress
precipitation. Storms are currently initiating off of the eastern
foothills of the Sacramento mountains with some hail cores evident
on radar, despite the very hot temperatures and high freezing
levels. As the evening approaches, storms are expected to produce
mostly a wind threat, given the large dewpoint depressions in the
boundary layer. Still, a couple more hailers cannot be ruled out,
particularly in northeastern and southeastern zones where CAMs
are pinpointing development. The Buck and Trout fires are getting
quite active again today in the hot, dry, and unstable conditions,
and smoke will be observed in Catron and Socorro counties
periodically tonight into Sunday with a more diffuse haze
expanding beyond.

For Sunday, the dome of high pressure looks to reach about 595
decameters at 500 mb as it centers more directly over NM. A weak
surface boundary is modeled to sag into northeastern zones Sunday
morning with winds veering easterly into the afternoon and
providing upslope flow on the east faces of the Sangre de Cristos.
CAMs are latching onto this and generating convection in
northeastern NM Sunday afternoon. Farther south, a dryline
boundary with sufficient surface and moisture convergence will
lead to more isolated storms in eastern NM. The marginal risk from
SPC is placed a bit farther east for Sunday, but a few strong to
severe cells (mostly downbursts, but a few hailers) will be
possible, as wind profiles will be veering with height despite
relatively light speeds. The Heat Advisory has not been altered
with lower elevations in the Rio Grande and Pecos valleys reaching
their 100 to 105 F temperature criteria. Cells would dissipate
shortly after sunset Sunday with a gradual clearing, but still
warm, night ahead.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

On Monday, a shortwave trough will move into CA, offering more of
a westerly wind component to the flow over NM. This will start to
shove the heat dome slightly southward with moderate westerly
afternoon breezes taking shape, mostly west of the Rio Grande.
Dewpoints will start to lower a couple to a few degrees with less
shower and storm activity. For now, POPs have been limited to 10
percent or less, mainly in the southwestern mountains and along
the central mountain chain, but the latter area may need to be
increased a bit once we get within range of the higher resolution
CAMs.

The shortwave trough will cross the Rockies on Tuesday with still
a bit of timing differences showing up. This will induce stronger
winds with 700 mb flow of 20 to 30 kt mixing down to the surface.
Temperatures will only trend down a couple degrees in western
zones, so it will still be quite warm to hot. In eastern zones,
readings will continue to climb within the downsloping
compressional warming, and many triple digits are in store for
east central to southeastern zones.

The polar jet then relaxes into Wednesday and the remainder of the
week, allowing the ridge to regain its perch over NM. After an
initial cooldown Wednesday in the wake of the wave and associated
front, temperatures will rebound Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A few thunderstorms will persist across northeast and southeast NM
through the evening hours. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are the
main concerns with these storms. Outflow winds may top 40kt. Quiet
conditions are expected overnight. Hi-res models suggest a little
more convection can be expected across eastern NM on Sunday.
Storms should again favor northeast NM (along a weak boundary)
and southeast NM (off the higher terrain) initially, but may fill
in across east central NM after 00Z Mon. Gusty outflow winds and
small hail will be the main concerns with these storms. Otherwise,
smoke from the Buck and Trout fires will cause limited visibility
across portions of southwest NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Very hot and dry conditions are in place over western NM which is
allowing fuels to cure and dry more. In the eastern zones, better
low layer moisture remains, even with very hot temperatures there
too. A few strong, high-based storms will remain possible through
the early evening, mainly in northeastern and southeastern NM with
mostly gusty winds threatening, but a few hail cores will also be
observed. Tonight`s RH recovery will be best in the eastern plains
where 70 to 80 percent will be attainable by dawn, but western and
central zones will again observe abysmal recoveries of only 15 to
25 percent. On Sunday, there will be a returning dry lightning
threat over the southwestern mountains with additional storms (mix
of wet and dry) over the eastern plains in the afternoon and
early evening. Storm prospects would reduce some on Monday, but
may not fully disappear over the southwestern mountains and along
and just east of the central mountain chain. If anything does
develop on Monday, it would likely be of a drier variety.
Concerns are high for Tuesday, a higher potential (50-70 percent)
critical day, as winds will be increasing from the west as a
Pacific disturbance crosses the Rockies. These gusty winds
combined with very low humidity (5 to 10 percent areawide), drying
fuels (much of of western NM at or above 75th percentile Energy
Release Components), and will pose large growth potential for
ongoing fires and any sleepers from recent lightning activity.
Temperatures will cool by just a few degrees on Wednesday in the
wake of the wave and attendant front, but readings will climb,
especially in western zones, during the latter part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  97  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  91  45  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  55  93  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  46  94  48  93 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  90  53  89 /   0   5   5   0
Grants..........................  50  95  52  94 /   0   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  53  93  55  93 /   0   5   5   5
Magdalena.......................  60  93  63  94 /   0  10   5   0
Datil...........................  53  91  56  92 /   0  10   5   5
Reserve.........................  51  98  52  98 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  56 102  58 102 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  47  86  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  63  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  58  91  57  91 /   0   5   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  51  87  52  88 /   0   5   0   5
Red River.......................  40  80  41  80 /   0  10   5   5
Angel Fire......................  29  82  30  83 /   0  10   0  10
Taos............................  47  91  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  51  87  51  88 /   0  10   0  10
Espanola........................  57  96  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  60  92  61  93 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  58  96  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  98  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  99  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  61 101  62 102 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65 100  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  57 101  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  63 100  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  56 101  61 101 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  63 101  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  56 101  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  64  97  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  99  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  67 103  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  92  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  61  94  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  55  94  57  93 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  94  52  94 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  58  89  58  90 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  57  94  58  94 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  58  94  59  94 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  65  97  65  98 /   0   5   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  54  90  56  91 /   5  20   5  10
Capulin.........................  52  85  52  88 /  20  20  20  10
Raton...........................  52  90  52  93 /   5  20  10  10
Springer........................  51  92  52  95 /   0  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  53  90  54  92 /   0  10   0  10
Clayton.........................  61  90  61  95 /  20  20  20  10
Roy.............................  56  90  57  93 /   5  20  10  10
Conchas.........................  62  97  62 101 /   5  10  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  61  96  61  98 /   5  10  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  65  95  63 100 /  10  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  67  98  65 100 /  10  10  20   5
Portales........................  66  99  65 101 /  20  10  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  65 100  63 102 /  10  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  70 104  69 106 /  10  20  10   5
Picacho.........................  63  97  63  98 /  10  20  10  10
Elk.............................  61  95  62  96 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ219-220-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...34