989
FXUS65 KABQ 270700
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

- A backdoor front on Saturday will drop lows into the teens and
  20s overnight.

- Some slick and icy roads from light snow across the northern and
  west central high terrain Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Colder early next week with high temperatures slightly below
  average across western and central New Mexico and well below
  average across eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2025

A splendid Thanksgiving Day is expected across the Land of
Enchantment with weak upper level ridging moving overhead.
Temperatures will be around average across eastern NM and 5 to 10
degrees above average across western and central NM with light winds
areawide. A blanket of high clouds will move in from the southwest
during the day. Mid to high level clouds over the state Thanksgiving
night into Friday morning ahead of an upper level trough over the
Pacific NW and northern Rockies. South-southeast return flow and low
surface dewpoint depressions will help result in the development of
low clouds across southeast NM around sunrise Friday before burning
off midday as southwest flow mixes down to the surface. Mid and high
level clouds across the rest of the state will gradually exit east
during the day. 700 mb winds of 25 to 30 kts ahead of the
aforementioned trough over the northern Rockies along with the
development of a surface lee low over eastern CO and northeast NM
will result in some breezy conditions across the central highlands
and east central plains along the I-40 corridor. This west and
southwest flow will result in above average temperatures by around 5
to 10 degrees areawide.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2025

The upper level trough mentioned in the short term quickly moves
southeast through the central Rockies Friday night into Saturday
morning and over the Great Plains and central U.S. Saturday. A few
light snow showers cannot be ruled out near the NM/CO early Saturday
morning. Pacific and backdoor fronts will move the the state
Saturday morning in the wake of the trough cooling temperatures
closer to normal for most except across northeast NM where highs on
Saturday will be 3 to 10 degrees below average. Peak north wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph near the TX border behind the backdoor front
Saturday afternoon.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance is getting into better agreement
over the next upper level trough Sunday into Monday and coming into
line to what the AI solutions depicted last night. The positively
tilted trough will move southeast across the Intermountain West
Sunday, sweep through western and northern NM Sunday night into
Monday morning before exiting east to over the Great Plains by
Monday evening and Monday night. This track would result in some
light snow across the west central and northern high terrain Sunday
night trough midday Monday with skies clearing during the 2nd half
of Monday. Sunday will be colder across eastern NM with highs 15 to
20 degrees below average due to continued CAA behind Saturday`s
backdoor front. Highs across central and western NM will cool down
to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the wake of Sunday night`s
and Monday`s morning system while highs across the eastern plains
remain around 10 to 15 degrees below average. Temperatures rebound
around 8 to 12 degrees across eastern NM on Tuesday due to downslope
westerly flow ahead of the next upper level trough over the Pacific
NW and northern Rockies. Extended guidance shows this trough diving
south and southwest and closing off into a low over southern NV and
CA and AZ come the 2nd half of the work week with low precipitation
chances favoring areas along and west of the central mountain chain
for now.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours with mostly
light winds, except for a moderate northerly drainage wind at KSAF
late tonight through Thursday morning. High clouds will increase
in coverage across the forecast area again from the southwest
Thursday afternoon, then persist through Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM MST Thu Nov 26 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid next
week. Mild with mostly poor ventilation on Thanksgiving Day and good
to locally very good ventilation across the higher terrain Friday.
Cooler for most to colder across far northeast New Mexico Saturday
behind Pacific and backdoor fronts with good ventilation across the
higher terrain and eastern plains. Colder early next week with
temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal across eastern New Mexico
Sunday and 5 to 15 degrees below normal areawide Monday as a storm
system quickly sweeps the northern part of the state. This system
will bring some light snow to the northern and west central high
terrain Sunday night into Monday morning. Good ventilation across
central and southern areas Monday afternoon. Temperatures warm up
closer to normal mid next week with generally poor ventilation for
most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  50  17  57  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  50  24  54  26 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  56  22  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  54  29  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  57  22  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  58  27  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  56  33  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  57  29  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  63  26  66  28 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  66  29  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  45  20  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  48  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  51  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  47  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  39  22  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  45  15  52  17 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  50  19  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  57  27  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  54  24  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  51  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  37  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  29  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  56  24  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  57  30  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  56  24  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  57  30  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  56  27  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  53  34  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  31  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  61  32  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  30  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  50  31  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  52  26  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  21  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  50  27  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  54  27  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  52  27  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  34  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  34  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  51  24  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  51  22  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  54  22  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  56  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  51  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  53  26  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  62  27  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  60  29  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  27  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  30  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  57  28  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  56  27  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  57  31  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  34  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  64  32  63  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44