Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
437 FXUS65 KABQ 011147 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 447 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 439 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Slick roads are expected mainly in the mountains near the CO border this morning, where accumulating snow will come to an end during the early morning. - Accumulating snow will again make roads slick in many locations from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward to the continental divide Wednesday night and Thursday, including portions of I-25 and I-40 from Moriarty to Clines Corners, Las Vegas, and Raton. The heaviest snow currently looks to impact the northern mountains, where travel over mountain passes may become difficult. - A strong west and southwest crosswind will impact travel over east central areas on Tuesday afternoon, then a potentially stronger west and northwest crosswind will impact travel over east central and southeast areas on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 High res models depict accumulating snow continuing in the mountains near the CO border until 9 AM or so this morning, as an upper level trough gradually exits east of NM. Then, sunny skies will prevail areawide. Although high temperatures will warm several degrees above Sunday`s readings on the eastern plains, today will still be cool with temperatures in most locations a few to around 13 degrees below 1991-2020 averages. In between systems on Tuesday, high temperatures will climb a few to 16 degrees above today`s readings, varying from 5 degrees below 30-year averages near the Four Corners to as much as 7 degrees above the average on parts of the east central and northeast plains. West and southwest wind gusts from 25 to around 40 mph mph are expected along the central mountain chain and eastward down the east central highlands and plains on Tuesday afternoon, thanks to a lee side surface trough south of a 1000 mb low pressure system over the northeast corner of NM. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1219 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 A deeper upper level trough and Pacific cold front will cross from the northwest with wintry precipitation beginning near the CO border Wednesday afternoon, then becoming widespread Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Precip will taper off rapidly Thursday afternoon as the upper level trough exits east of NM. Ensemble members are generally trending away from scenarios where the upper trough forms a closed upper level low pressure system near the Four Corners before crossing, but a minority of members still indicate this will happen. As a result, the snow forecast is a little lighter than what we were forecasting yesterday for the storm system. However, winter travel impacts are still likely with a 30-70% chance of at least 2 inches of snow accumulation at lower elevations along the I-25 corridor from Raton to Glorieta Pass, and a 30-60% chance along the I-40 corridor from Tijeras Canyon to Santa Rosa. A few inches of snow are also likely in the mountains north of Highway 60 (with chances only around 10-20% in mountains farther south), except for a 30-40% chance of over 5 inches of snow in the northwest mountains, and 40-80% in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. At this time, the greatest snow amounts look to reach around 8 inches on the highest peaks of the Sangres. Ahead of the upper level trough a backdoor cold front will dive southwestward through the eastern plains Tuesday night, then through gaps in the central mountain chain Wednesday night with modestly gusty east canyon wind gusts up to around 30 mph in Albuquerque and Santa Fe. High temperatures look to bottom out in most places on Thursday with readings around 5-20 degrees below 1991-2020 averages. In the wake of the storm system, dry and gusty northwest flow is forecast over the forecast area Friday through the weekend. At this time, the strongest gusts look to occur on Saturday when a lee-side surface trough will briefly strengthen as an upper level trough exiting the central Rockies clips northeast NM. Gusts in the 25-45 mph range look increasingly likely on Saturday along and east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will also trend warmer Friday through the weekend, except for some cooler readings on Sunday behind a backdoor cold front over northeast and far east central areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 A gusty Pacific cold front will continue to produce northwest winds and snow showers in the Albuquerque area for another hour or two, then skies will clear. Accumulating snow and mountain obscurations in the northern mountains will also diminish by mid morning, followed by clearing skies. Otherwise, northwest winds will probably be a little gusty over central areas today, and up around Clayton. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1219 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025 Minimum humidities are forecast to stay above 15 percent for the next seven days, except for a few pockets of near 15 percent humidity on Tuesday afternoon over northeast and east central areas. These will result in locally critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon, due to the breezy to windy conditions that are also expected. As mentioned previously, stronger winds are forecast across the east on Saturday, but minimum humidities should be in the 30-45 percent range by then. Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are forecast each day until Thursday and Friday, when poor ventilation looks to become widespread. The stronger winds in the east on Saturday will result in ventilation improvement, then vent rates will come up in many western locations as well on Sunday while pockets of poor ventilation persist near the CO border. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 44 21 44 26 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 10 44 15 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 39 15 43 20 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 13 48 20 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 42 18 47 23 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 45 13 52 20 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 44 18 53 23 / 10 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 47 25 53 30 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 44 21 52 26 / 10 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 53 19 58 24 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 60 24 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 37 10 39 15 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 41 22 44 26 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 43 20 48 23 / 20 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 16 43 20 / 30 0 0 0 Red River....................... 29 12 35 15 / 30 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 35 5 41 10 / 20 0 0 0 Taos............................ 41 11 45 16 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 42 17 51 20 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 47 17 50 19 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 42 23 45 26 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 19 45 23 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 28 48 32 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 23 50 28 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 22 53 26 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 23 50 28 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 53 19 53 22 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 50 23 52 26 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 52 18 52 22 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 50 22 52 26 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 52 20 52 23 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 44 26 48 29 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 23 51 27 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 57 25 58 28 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 23 44 26 / 20 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 43 23 45 27 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 20 47 23 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 13 49 18 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 42 20 47 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 21 48 27 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 22 49 26 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 50 26 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 26 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 34 15 51 20 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 40 12 53 19 / 20 0 0 0 Springer........................ 43 12 56 20 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 18 54 23 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 40 20 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 43 16 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 18 62 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 46 22 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 47 21 63 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 48 22 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 51 20 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 18 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 58 23 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 57 24 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 57 23 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ210- 213. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44