616
FXUS65 KABQ 262021
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
221 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Rises will continue on some area rivers and streams through
  tonight, notably the Pecos River at Lake Arthur and the Rio
  Puerco at Bernardo. Low-lying farmland, fields, pastures, and
  property near these rivers may experience minor flooding.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture will arrive Sunday night and
  continue through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms with long-
  duration periods of moderate rainfall may result in another
  stretch of flooding, especially in areas already saturated by
  recent heavy rainfall.

- Isolated pockets of fog may return to valley areas of northern
  and western New Mexico tonight. Low visibility may lead to
  locally difficult travel.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Spectacular weather today will give way to increasing clouds thru
Sunday. The chance for any showers or storms will be very low and
confined to areas around the southern high terrain and southeast
plains today and again Sunday. There is a <15% chance for patchy
fog to redevelop late tonight over northern and western valleys.

Folks are encouraged to take advantage of the nice weekend weather
to prepare for the next round of heavy rainfall. Moisture will begin
surging northeast into western NM Sunday night as an upper level
trough approaches from the west and the remnant circulation from
Hurricane Polo moves northeast toward the Baja. Precip chances rise
quickly along and west of the Cont Divide Sunday night. However, QPF
amounts are insignificant so the risk for any flooding before Monday
is very low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Rich moisture will continue surging northeast into NM Monday with
cloud decks thickening and lowering thru the day. The focus for
heavy rainfall will be along and west of the Cont Divide Monday
afternoon as forcing from the upper level trough strengthens over
eastern AZ and western NM. The focus then shifts eastward into
the central mt chain Monday night. WPC has a large `Moderate Risk`
area of excessive rainfall (40% chance of flash flooding within
25km of any point). Rain rates may not be high enough to support
significant flash flooding over western NM given a lower threat
for thunderstorms with limited instability. The more likely
scenario is for a large area of light to moderate rain developing
over western NM Monday to push slowly east into central NM Monday
night. There may be a window of opportunity for heavier rainfall
rates within central NM Monday afternoon before the main area of
widespread rainfall shifts east. Antecedent soil conditions would
be more supportive of flash flooding within central NM compared to
northwest NM where several days of drier weather have assisted
soil recovery.

Models are still in good agreement with slowing the H5 low over AZ
Tuesday while abundant moisture from Polo surges northeast into NM.
PWATs rise to near +3.5 standard deviations (1.2"+) Tuesday. The
greater instability focuses over eastern NM where antecedent soil
conditions are already saturated. A large `Moderate Risk` for flash
flooding will be in place across nearly all of NM. Rainfall rates
are likely to be highest over eastern NM and the flash flood risk
may be elevated to `High`. Meanwhile, long duration moderate rain
will impact northern and central NM. Area rivers will continue to
rise with additional river flooding developing Tuesday night.

The entire system continues to trend slower into Wednesday with
widespread rainfall continuing over the area. The GFS and ECMWF are
in excellent agreement with showing the H5 low near the ABQ metro
Wednesday while the remnant wave from Polo slides into eastern NM.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is now expected to
continue thru Wednesday with antecedent soil conditions favorable
for another day of potential flooding. WPC has a 25% flash flood
threat painted over northeast NM but this may get expanded south and
west if model trends continue to slow. Convective instability is
limited again Wednesday so the event may be more widespread rain
rather than intense rates from storms. QPF amounts are impressive
with another widespread 1 to 3" expected. These amounts will
push most areas above their record wettest September and leave
the official end of the monsoon season above normal (mostly thanks
to the second half of September). The NBM 90th %tile QPF with
support from several deterministic models show localized rainfall
amounts over 4". Mid level temps are cold enough to support a few
inches of snow in the Sangre de Cristo Mts >10,000 ft Wednesday
night and Thursday morning as wrap around precip continues on the
north side of the departing H5 low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Any lingering low cloud patches this morning will clear thru
noon. Cirrus will increase from west to east today while fair
weather cumulus form around the higher terrain. There is a <15%
for a shower or storm between KSRR and KROW later today. Cirrus
will continue to thicken tonight with low chances for patchy fog
in valleys of northern and western NM before sunrise Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns for the foreseeable
future. Widespread record rains over the past 2 weeks along with
more rain forecast next week will continue to assist containment
efforts on any fires lingering over the region. The risk for burn
scar flooding will continue with heavy rain over saturated soils.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  79  56  66 /   0   0  40  80
Dulce...........................  37  74  44  61 /   0   0  60  90
Cuba............................  47  70  50  61 /   0   0  30  90
Gallup..........................  46  75  49  64 /   0   0  50  80
El Morro........................  45  73  48  63 /   0   0  40  90
Grants..........................  48  75  52  65 /   0   0  40  90
Quemado.........................  48  75  52  67 /   0   5  30  80
Magdalena.......................  52  73  55  68 /   0   0  10  80
Datil...........................  47  72  50  66 /   0  10  20  80
Reserve.........................  49  80  52  75 /   0  10  30  60
Glenwood........................  56  85  58  79 /   0   5  20  60
Chama...........................  41  68  45  55 /   0   0  60  90
Los Alamos......................  50  70  54  62 /   0   0  20  80
Pecos...........................  48  74  51  66 /   0   0  20  70
Cerro/Questa....................  47  71  49  62 /   0   0  20  80
Red River.......................  33  68  38  57 /   0   0  20  70
Angel Fire......................  32  68  36  59 /   0   0  20  70
Taos............................  43  72  46  63 /   0   0  20  80
Mora............................  45  71  48  66 /   0   0  10  60
Espanola........................  49  76  53  68 /   0   0  20  80
Santa Fe........................  51  71  55  65 /   0   0  20  80
Santa Fe Airport................  50  72  54  66 /   0   0  20  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  76  58  68 /   0   0  10  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  76  57  69 /   0   0  10  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  77  57  70 /   0   0  10  80
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  76  59  68 /   0   0  10  80
Belen...........................  55  76  57  71 /   0   0   5  70
Bernalillo......................  55  77  57  69 /   0   0  10  80
Bosque Farms....................  54  77  55  71 /   0   0   5  70
Corrales........................  55  77  57  70 /   0   0  10  80
Los Lunas.......................  55  77  57  71 /   0   0   5  70
Placitas........................  55  74  57  67 /   0   0  10  80
Rio Rancho......................  56  76  58  69 /   0   0  10  80
Socorro.........................  57  81  60  76 /   0   0   5  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  70  54  63 /   0   0  10  80
Tijeras.........................  49  72  51  67 /   0   0  10  80
Edgewood........................  46  73  50  68 /   0   0  10  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  74  49  71 /   0   0   5  70
Clines Corners..................  50  72  53  69 /   0   0   5  60
Mountainair.....................  48  73  52  70 /   0   0   5  60
Gran Quivira....................  50  73  53  71 /   0   0  10  50
Carrizozo.......................  57  77  58  75 /   0   0   5  40
Ruidoso.........................  51  73  53  73 /   0   0  10  50
Capulin.........................  50  73  52  69 /   0   0   5  30
Raton...........................  48  77  50  71 /   0   0   5  30
Springer........................  47  77  50  73 /   0   0   5  40
Las Vegas.......................  48  73  50  68 /   0   0   5  60
Clayton.........................  56  81  57  76 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  51  77  54  72 /   0   0   0  40
Conchas.........................  57  83  59  80 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Rosa......................  56  79  58  77 /   0   0   0  30
Tucumcari.......................  57  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  59  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  58  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  84  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
Roswell.........................  57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  56  81  57  80 /   0   0   0  40
Elk.............................  53  80  55  79 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42