537
FXAK67 PAJK 152331
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
231 PM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Snow/rain showers across the area expected to diminish this
  evening. Possible snow accumulation around 1 inch in extreme
  northern panhandle and Yakutat.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
  Alaska. Possible fog in some inner channel areas.

- Next front incoming from the W on Monday.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ A 990 mb low is currently
twisting its way through the central gulf this afternoon while its
associated front lies north to Cape Suckling and then E across
the far northern panhandle. That front brought some snow to the
northern half of the panhandle last night with morning
accumulations ranging from around 1 inch in the Mendenhall Valley
to up to 6 inches at Snettisham. Snow is still being consistently
observed around Skagway and Haines this afternoon as the front is
still hung up in that area though rates are starting to diminish.
The rest of the panhandle is dealing with post frontal showers,
mainly in the form of rain with temps in the low 40s (exception is
Hyder where cold air lingering in the valley has kept temps
around freezing today). Generally lighter winds around the
panhandle with Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage being the stand
outs with 15 to 20 kt southerly winds.

The movement of the gulf low to the E and S through the night
will eventually cause flow over the panhandle to switch to a more
easterly then northerly direction overnight. Shower activity
should diminish as a result by late tonight. Skagway, Haines, and
Hyder expected to remain cold enough for snow, but with decreasing
shower activity accumulations should only be around a inch or two
at most. Skies are also expected to start showing some breaks in
the cloud cover overnight, starting over the central inner
channels. This could lead to fog developing first over the central
inner channels before spreading to the south late so some patchy
fog has been added to the forecast.

Into Sunday and Sunday night, the forecast is rather quiet with
ridging building over the gulf. Cloud cover will still be
somewhat present over the northern panhandle due to some slight
onshore flow there, but the southerly half of the panhandle will
likely see clearer skies with northerly offshore flow dominate
over the area. The result will be colder overnight low
temperatures Sunday night with many areas likely getting near
freezing. Some fog could also develop again mainly over the
southern panhandle. The next front will just be entering the
eastern half of the gulf late Sunday night so all the wind and
rain will remain well offshore of the panhandle at that point.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/... The next front moves
into the outer coastline late Monday morning, pushing eastward
over the rest of the panhandle by the afternoon and evening. This
will be followed by more onshore flow lasting through midweek as
upper level shortwaves push through and allow for waves to
continue impacting the panhandle. This overall onshore flow from
the S to SW will bring up temperatures and snow levels across the
panhandle, with 850 mb temperatures increasing to around -4 to -5
degrees C over the northern panhandle from this warmer air
impacting the area. Temperatures will drop overnight to below
freezing in the northern panhandle as well as some lower snow
levels over Haines northward, allowing for some snow overnight and
mixing in the morning for Icy Strait corridor northward as showers
still impact the northern panhandle before the front begins to
push in. This will soon change to rain Monday as the front advects
in warmer air to the not exceptionally cold airmass over the
northern panhandle, as the largely easterly winds and lingering
onshore showers will not really be ideal for getting colder air
into much of the northern panhandle overnight Sunday into Monday.
The only areas seeing snow during the frontal passage Monday will
be the higher elevation areas including the Klondike and Haines
Highways, with snow amounts for Monday being 3 to 5 inches near
the border. The rest of the northern panhandle will see up to 1
inch of accumulation from the light snow showers in the morning,
before transitioning to rain when the front moves in. The outer
coast around Yakutat is expected to get around 1 inch in 24 hours
of rainfall, with between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for the rest of the
panhandle.

Following shortly behind this front will be another quick
shortwave moving through, continuing to bring precipitation
across the panhandle Tuesday morning and lingering longest over
the northern panhandle into Tuesday night. Overall the QPF
expected for Tuesday will be even less for the panhandle, with
less than 0.5 inches for the panhandle as this wave moves quickly
through, and another 1 to 2 inches of snow for the highways.
After this is where models begin to show some lack of agreement,
with the low moving into the southern Gulf Wednesday. The clusters
are not much in agreement, as the GEFS appears to have the low
moving northward closer to the panhandle while the EPS has it
moving more south of Haida Gwaii. So far leaning towards the
grand ensemble`s solution of having the low in between these two
solutions, still allowing for a front to move across the panhandle
but largely impacting the southern half of the panhandle. The QPF
amounts are still expected to be highest across the southern
panhandle Wednesday, with between 0.75 and 1.25 inches in 24
hours expected largely along the southern coastline around PoW,
and decreasing to less than 0.5 inches in the northern half of the
panhandle. This is still expected to be largely rain, with the
highways seeing another 1 to 3 inches of snow in 24 hours
Wednesday. The QPF amounts across the northern panhandle and even
the winds along the coast and inner channels may increase if the
the low tracks more northward, however this solution is only being
shown by 20% of the ensemble clusters, making it more likely to
see the low staying further to the south.

&&

.AVIATION...Rain and snow continue to be a headache for the far
northern inner channels, though less so than this morning. For the
rest of the panhandle, showers will continue to diminish over the
area later tonight. Heavier showers capable of bringing gusty
erratic winds and ice pellets down to the surface have been
observed and remain possible, primarily for the central and
southern panhandle through this evening. CIGs range from 1000 to
2000 ft in the northern inner channels to AoA 5000 ft for the rest
of the panhandle. Shower activity will lead to variable CIGs as
well as potentially significant drops in VIS for brief periods.
General improvements are expected across the board as a low in the
gulf continues to move southeast out of the area over the next 24
hours. No significant LLWS expected over the TAF period, through
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Channels: Winds will be switching back and forth between
onshore and offshore as the low in the gulf slides southeast
affecting pressure gradients across the channels. We will be
starting out with onshore south/southeast flow this evening with
Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage having winds up to 15 to 20 kt to
start with. This will switch to lighter N and NE flow late
tonight and Sunday as the gulf low slides south of the area. The
channels then switch back to S/SE flow again late Sunday night as
we start to feel the affects of the next front that will be
approaching from the west. Winds are not expected to be that
intense with 20 kt this evening being the highest expected. Seas
will remain mostly 4 ft or less for most areas with seas up to 10
ft near ocean entrances due to high SW swell in the gulf.

Gulf Waters: With the low in the south central gulf, winds will
generally be from the S and E tonight with the highest winds of 25
kt expected near the low center. Winds start switching direction
from the E to the W Sunday as the low moves out of the area and
ridging builds in. Sunday night into Monday will see the winds
switch again to the S and start to increase to 25 kt as the next
front begins to move in from the W. Expect the highest winds from
this front to be mainly on Monday. Seas are mainly dominated by a
8 to 10 ft SW swell (period 11 to 15 sec) at the moment with low
wind wave giving combined seas of 11 to 13 ft. Seas are expected
to peak this evening around 13 to 15 ft, mainly due to the SW
swell, before diminishing down to 8 ft into early Monday as swell
diminishes down to 4 ft from the SW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau