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FXAK67 PAJK 101311
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
411 AM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SHORT TERM...A low entering the Gulf of Alaska continues to track
to the north and east this morning. Both global deterministic as
well as hires guidance continues to show a track farther to the
east which will bring more moisture and better dynamics to the
area. With the increased moisture and improved dynamics, snowfall
amounts are expected to be higher along the Klondike highway today
through tomorrow thanks to SW flow up Lynn Canal into the Skagway
area as well as orographic lifting. For the rest of the
panhandle, the weakening front is still expected to bring
increased winds and more rain to the area. Across the southern
panhandle, rain is already being reported as well as an increase
in returns from the radar on Biorka Island. As the low moves
closer to the coast throughout the day today, onshore flow will
persist bringing the continued chances for showers throughout
today after the initial front passes over as well as tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...
As the low pressure system moves north and diminishes
through Tuesday, lingering showers will bring times of light
precipitation to the panhandle. Cooler temperatures and drier
conditions quickly develop after Tuesday as a low pressure system
moves to the south of the panhandle. This will bring weak outflow
and northerly winds across the inner channels as a high develops
over the Yukon. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near
Skagway and Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales are
most likely, but the gradient could increase as we get closer.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler temperatures
across most of the panhandle with overnight lows getting below
freezing across the panhandle Thursday night. These temperatures are
nothing atypical for this time of year, but it would be the coldest
some places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the gulf
Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds across the
gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this end
of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold air
in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central panhandle.
We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The stronger the
outflow is, the more likely the chance for snow will be.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Monday night/...
A front extending from a gale force low out in the gulf will
spread rain across SE AK on Monday, with snow possibly mixing in
at PAHN and PAGY. Expect MVFR flight conditions to develop Monday
morning. Periods of IFR VIS and CIGs with possible under
steadier/heavier precip as the front passes through. Behind the
frontal passage, onshore flow will keep the rain and MVFR flight
conditions across SE AK into Monday night.

Winds will increase ahead of the front, becoming 12-20G22-30kt
across much of the region. LLWS will also develop out of the S to
SE, becoming 35-45kts Monday afternoon, then turning SW 30-35kts
behind the front Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A weakening gale force low continues to work into
the Gulf of Alaska this morning. This low continues to track
farther to the east which will bring some gale force winds to the
offshore waters, especially around the backside of the low. But
the front is expected to be a weakening gale force front is still
expected to move into the outer coast later this morning before
moving ashore and dissipating. Right now, the best chance for gale
force winds looks to be near Cape Spencer before the front while
most of the coast could see fresh to strong breezes with some
pockets of near gales. Seas with this front are expected to
increase to around 13-16 ft from Cape Spencer down to the Dixon
Entrance midday. Seas should diminish slightly behind the front
but then are expected to increase again as the low center moves
closer to shore bringing closer to 20-25 ft seas tonight into
tomorrow from Cape Fairweather down to Cape Decision.

Inside Waters: Conditions across the Inner Channels this morning
range from gentle breezes to some areas of fresh breezes. Ahead of
the next front approaching, winds are expected to diminish
slightly before increasing to strong breezes to near gales. The
strongest winds are expected to be along the front as it passes
over. Behind the front, winds are expected to remain between fresh
to strong breezes as onshore flow persists bringing continued
showers to the area. Winds continue to diminish heading into
tomorrow as the low continues to weaken before high pressure moves
into the Gulf for the middle of the week.

&&


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon AKST Tuesday for
     AKZ318.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM this morning to noon AKST today for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from noon AKST today through this afternoon for
     AKZ325-326-329-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-662>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-
     651-652-661-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...SF

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