227
FXAK67 PAJK 040652 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
952 PM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
Made a few adjustments to the near term in the northern
panhandle. Drier, drainage flow has decoupled winds in Haines and
Skagway, resulting in light to westerly or northerly respectively.
Not expecting any change going forward, as the drainage flow is
expected to keep stable air flowing into the area, keeping the
stronger southerlies of northern Lynn Canal from mixing down to
the surface. Otherwise, made several adjustments to wind
directions over communities to match current observations, as
conditions are not expected to drastically change in the next 6-12
hours.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Thursday evening/
A wide variety of flight conditions this evening as onshore flow
keeps low clouds and isolated showers across the panhandle.
Looking at obs around the area, TAF sites range from isolated
pockets of VFR & LIFR to predominate and widespread MVFR & IFR
with CIGS AoB 3500ft and visbys between 3 to 6SM within rain and
mist. Through Wednesday night flight conditions will overall
continue to worsen, generally bouncing between MVFR to LIFR flight
conditions with CIGS AoB 2500ft and visbys around 2 to 4SM by 15z
Thursday morning across the panhandle, with low ceilings
persisting and visbys slow improving through Thursday afternoon.
Winds should remain around 10 kts or less overnight, going near
calm and variable by 12z, increasing once more into Thursday
afternoon to around 5 to 10kts. No LLWS concerns through the TAF
period.

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 427 PM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - An exiting front brought mainly rain to the panhandle today.
   Lingering rain will diminish tonight and tomorrow.

 - Onshore flow will keep the warmer-than-normal temps in place
   through Thursday. Colder weather begins to slide south into the
   area Friday night.

 - Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
   hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
   closely

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...

The exiting front from today brought rain and brief elevated
winds. But as it moves out, wind speeds will continue to decrease
with the lingering rain diminishing.

Going into Thursday, continued onshore flow will keep the rainy
and cloudy weather in place with continued warmer-than-normal
temperatures.

Overall, a quiet short term when compared to the pattern change
coming this weekend.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...A pattern change going
into this weekend is looking to bring cold temperatures, heavy
precipitation, and strong winds to the panhandle into early next
week.

A system advancing into the northern gulf through Friday will
send a front into the panhandle overnight Friday before stalling
in the northern gulf through the weekend, funneling consistent
moisture over the panhandle. This front will bring moderate to
heavy rain rates to the area, with around an inch expected for a
majority of locations and persisting at similar rates through the
weekend. A cold air mass aloft shifts into the Yukon and continues
to moves southward through the weekend. A tightening pressure
gradient over the northern panhandle will increase outflow winds
through the weekend, helping to funnel the colder air south into
the panhandle. Decreasing temperatures with ample available
moisture will increase the potential for heavy snowfall in the
northern panhandle, extending south through the weekend and into
next week. Highest confidence of snowfall remains across the far N
Panhandle and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Haines and
Skagway starting Friday night, continuing through Saturday.
Looking elsewhere, Yakutat will also see higher amounts of snow,
but currently expecting just below warning levels. Forecast
becomes more of a challenge moving towards the Icy Strait
Corridor, starting as rain and transitioning into a mix by
Saturday, limiting potential amounts initially. Snow level drop
south following the colder temperatures, snow potential will also
move further south towards the corridor, and the rain/snow mix
will then follow into the central panhandle. Stay tuned to the
forecast moving into the weekend as details come into clearer view
regarding potential amounts and refined timing for the Icy Strait
Corridor and Yakutat.

As the gale force low moves into the northern Gulf and a high
sets up to the north of the panhandle into this weekend, northerly
flow begins to set up over the northern panhandle into Lynn
Canal. This cold air mass to the north contributes to the colder
temperature trend over the weekend and into early next week,
alongside bringing stronger winds down Lynn Canal. These winds
will begin to increase Saturday into Sunday with northerly gales
in northern Lynn Canal with 35 to 40 kt winds by Sunday afternoon
as the gradient tightens over the northern panhandle. Winds will
increase in Skagway at this time, however the stronger sustained
winds will likely stay below 30 mph, with the northerly wind not
being expected to be strong enough to dry out the air too much
enough to reduce the snowfall amounts. Other land areas will see
an increase in SE winds as the front moves through, with
diminished winds between the waves of precipitation that push
through this weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: A front is exiting the area this afternoon.
Behind this front wind speeds have been decreasing. And these
winds will continue their downward trend tonight and into Thursday
as ridging passes over the Gulf waters. Seas will lower to
between 7 and 9 ft for Thursday. Winds and seas look to rise
Thursday night into Friday, especially from Cape Edgecombe south,
as a low will track east through the southern Gulf and towards
Haida Gwaii. For the weekend, a forecasted low near the northern
Gulf will give the eastern Gulf waters 25 to 30 kts with areas of
35 kts. These elevated winds will last into next week.

Inside waters:
A front is exiting the area this afternoon. Winds will continue to
diminish behind the front with lighter onshore flow setting up.
Winds continue this diminishing trend across the inner channels
into Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf. Then, winds are
expected to begin to increase Thursday night into Friday with a
system passing to the south of the southern panhandle, with brief
northerly/easterly outflow developing to the north. Southerly
winds return by Friday morning but Friday night, northerly flow
returns to Lynn Canal. Speeds in the inner channels pick up to 20
to 25 kts by Friday night with the weekend seeing 25 to 35 kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday
     night for AKZ318-319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NC
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GJS

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