324
FXUS61 KAKQ 040519
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
119 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Updated Aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is
expected through Sunday.

2) Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter
conditions is expected through Sunday.

This afternoon, a cold front is located south of the area over
southern North Carolina. Meanwhile, high pressure (~1030 mb) is
centered over the eastern Great Lakes and ridging south into the Mid
Atlantic. Widespread cloud cover and much cooler conditions over a
majority of the area this afternoon as wedge airmass develops over
the local area. Seeing two areas of showers on radar currently,
light to moderate rain over roughly the northern half of the area
and area of steadier rain just to the south of the forecast area
over North Carolina. Tonight, the front will remain stalled well
south of the local area with waves of low pressure likely moving
along the front. In addition, another front will begin to approach
from the NW later tonight into Sunday. Tropical moisture streaming
up between the fronts (PWATs 1.6-1.8", 2 sigma above normal) will
bring additional rounds of rain tonight through Sunday.

Overcast, cool, and showery conditions continue through the day on
Sunday. The heaviest rain will likely be across far southern and SE
portions of the area (closer to the front). ~1.00"+ QPF is possible
closer to the Albemarle Sound and portions of northeast North
Carolina. Lighter rain/drizzle is expected for much of the remainder
of the area with the CAD airmass in place. Instability will be
minimal, with any thunder chances restricted to the far SE.
Persistent clouds and rain will cap Sunday highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry next week.

Any rain comes to an end from NW to SE late Sunday night into early
Monday morning as a second, stronger cold front crosses the area.
Clearing skies and a brief downslope flow will allow for high
temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 70s on Monday. A
stronger surge of cold air advection arrives Monday night as ~1024
mb high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows fall
into the upper 40s NW to mid 50s SE. A high confidence, autumn
pattern takes hold Tuesday through late next week as strong high
pressure anchors over the Eastern US and subtle troughing sets up
aloft. Highs will start out in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday,
gradually warming each day. Efficient radiational cooling is possible
each night with lows dropping back into the 40s and 50s. The next
chances for rain are likely not until next weekend (at the
earliest).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Sunday...

Widespread low clouds with IFR and LIFR conditions in place at
the local terminals. CIGs are higher near SBY but most model
guidance suggests degradation to IFR over the next few hours.
Expect continued low clouds through the day with on and off rain
and/or drizzle. This will also favor VSBY restrictions, as low
as 2-4 SM in the heaviest activity. Overall, the coverage of
rain has trended lower for most of today, but will show
prevailing RA/DZ in the TAFs due to uncertainty with exact
timing. Lower VSBY should improve later this afternoon as precip
begins to taper off. However, IFR-LIFR CIGs are expected to
prevail through the period. Winds will generally be quite light
out of the north today, except NE at SBY.

Outlook: Conditions gradually dry out Sunday night into Monday,
with VFR conditions eventually returning by Monday afternoon.
VFR conditions are then expected through much of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Northeasterly winds continue to diminish this evening.

- A stronger cold front crosses the waters Monday night into
  Tuesday with additional Small Craft Advisories possible.

1028mb high pressure is centered just north of Lake Erie, ridging to
the south and east across the local area in the wake of this
morning`s cold front. Waves are 2-3 ft in the bay with seas 3-4 ft
(highest S) offshore. Winds have started to decrease across the
region but remain 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. All Small Craft
Advisories have expired or been cancelled as the pressure gradient
continues to slacken. Sub advisory conditions and variable wind
directions persist on Sunday as a weak boundary passes through
the area Sunday night. NW flow strengthens Monday afternoon and
becomes N or NE Monday night into Tuesday behind a stronger
frontal passage. 12z guidance has come in somewhat weaker with
the post-frontal wind surge vs overnight model runs. Still
looks like at least the southern Chesapeake Bay/lower
James/Currituck Sound will see a period of 15-20 kt winds. 4-5
ft seas and ~20 kt winds are expected for the southern coastal
waters Monday night into Tuesday. It now appears that winds and
seas will fall short of SCA thresholds for the northern coastal
waters during this period.

A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches on Sunday and
all beaches on Monday. A Moderate (or potentially high) Rip Risk is
forecast for the southern beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR