093
FXUS61 KAKQ 291034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
534 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions persist through tonight. The next
chance for light rain arrives Sunday with widespread rain likely
on Tuesday. Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain
across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Otherwise, generally cool weather continues through
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 530 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Remaining chilly and mostly sunny today, though with less wind.

High pressure is centered near or just W of the forecast area this
morning. The flow aloft is quasi-zonal behind a departing trough
over New England. Well to our W (over the Plains and CO Front
Range), a mid-level trough and attendant sfc low have developed.
Cold temperatures prevail locally early this morning with current
observations depicting upper teens to lower 20s inland and
upper 20s-lower 30s on the Eastern Shore and near the coast of
SE VA and NE NC, where there is still some mixing. A very cold
morning for late November.

The Canadian high will settle overhead later this morning and
afternoon. As a result, expect much lighter winds today with daytime
wind chills warmer than yesterday, despite similar temps in the mid
40s. Sunny/mostly sunny skies are also expected through most of the
afternoon. Thicker high clouds then overspread the region tonight as
the high shifts offshore. Although modest WAA is expected ahead of
the next system, overnight lows should still be quite cold and in
the 20s inland and 30s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly light rain expected Sunday, with cooler temps W/NW and
  warmer temps E/SE.

- Drying out Monday with temps remaining below normal.

Moisture overspreads the region early Sunday in advance of a cold
front. A period of overrunning rain is possible by the mid-morning
hours across the far W/NW Piedmont, with the chance of rain
spreading eastward in the afternoon (and to the coast by the
evening). While temps initially will be cold, WAA should allow temps
to rise above freezing before any precip arrives. Any frozen precip
will likely be confined to areas W of our CWA and especially in the
higher terrain of the Blue Ridge. With light precip and clouds
lingering across the NW for most of the day, temps will struggle to
get out the 40s. In fact, some of the cooler guidance (NAM/MET)
keeps our far NW Piedmont counties in the upper 30s Sunday. Will not
go this cool, but it remains a possibility. Further E and SE, temps
warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with the rain/showers arriving
later in the day. The cold front clears the area in the evening as
cool high pressure again builds in from the west. Cold advection and
gradually clearing skies Sunday night leads to sub-freezing lows
inland, with 32-37 F across far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Winds also
become breezy post-frontal at the immediate coast, with gusts up
to 25-30 MPH.

Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high pressure again taking
control. Forecast highs are in the mid-upper 40s. Temps initially
fall into the 20s and 30s overnight Monday, but a developing low
pressure system to our SW will bring a significant increase in
clouds late in the night. Therefore, temps are likely to level off
or increase a few degrees early Tuesday morning. Some light precip
potentially overspreads the area after 09z/4 AM Tuesday morning, but
will discuss this in the Long Term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cool weather continues through next week inland with
  occasional days of mild weather across far SE VA and NE NC.

- A widespread wetting rain is likely on Tuesday with greater
  than one inch of rain possible across SE VA and NE NC.

- Rain may start as a brief period of freezing rain across
  portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday
  morning.

Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the
area Tuesday. A shortwave is progged to eject out of the
Intermountain West region late Monday into early Tuesday, with a
weak surface low developing along the western Gulf coast during this
time. Meanwhile, over the local area, high pressure initially
remains in place early Tuesday, before quickly retreating to our NE
later in the day. The low should then track along the Southeast
coast Tuesday afternoon and then move overhead or just S of the area
in the evening. Cold air will initially be in place Tuesday morning,
though it remains uncertain if precip will arrive soon to enough to
lead to any frozen p-type concerns. There remains some temporal
differences among the guidance with the GFS and CMC quicker than the
ECMWF with the initial precip onset. Mid-level WAA will also
compromise the depth of the cold air as the sfc high retreats, so
any initial precip that falls in this cold airmass would be light
freezing rain or perhaps ice pellets/sleet if the cold air is a bit
deeper (versus snow). NBM probabilities for 0.01" of ice are around
20% across our NW Piedmont counties (Louisa/Fluvanna), with the 0.1"
only around 5%. Will initially show a slight chc of freezing
rain and sleet across the NW at onset, transitioning to rain and
freezing rain for these same areas for the rest of the morning.
With (slowly) increasing temps, don`t foresee this event being
a major issue and will limit any measurable freezing rain (only
0.01" at that) to Fluvanna and western Louisa counties. Should
sfc temps trend warmer and/or precip trend even later, any
threat for winter precip would drop to zero.

Later in the afternoon and evening, broad ascent downstream of the
trough and favorable right entrance jet streak forcing will favor
widespread precip as the low moves through, which could be locally
heavy at times. There is increasing confidence in a soaking rainfall
with PoPs 90-100% for the entire area. Probabilities for >1" of rain
from a NBM/LREF consensus is ~60+% across the SE half of the
CWA, with lower, but still non-zero, probs further NW. For
>0.50", probs were generally in excess of 80-90% areawide.
Localized totals of >2" are possible and would likely be
confined to SE VA and NE NC. WPC has maintained a Marginal
(level 1 out 4) excessive rainfall outlook for most of our area
(minus the far W/NW), although the current thinking is any
flooding threat is very low due to antecedent dry conditions and
the longer duration of the rainfall. Precip quickly ends from W
to E Tuesday night and dry conditions return Wednesday and
Thursday. Another southern-stream system could bring additional
precip later Friday into the first part of next weekend. At this
time, predominantly rain is expected, but cannot rule out some
frozen precip inland (confidence is very low).

A tight temp gradient is expected Tuesday with highs ranging from
the upper 50s/lower 60s SE to upper 30s/lower 40s NW. Cooler temps
prevail Wednesday through Friday, with Thursday likely the "mildest"
day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will
range through the 20s inland and 30s near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 530 AM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through tonight with dry wx expected. A
5-8 kt N/NW wind is expected at SBY/ORF/ECG today, with light
and variable winds elsewhere. High clouds overspread the region
and thicken this evening and tonight ahead of a cold front.

Outlook: Rain chances arrive Sunday, mainly during the day
inland, shifting to the coast late in the aftn through Sun
night. Not looking like a lot of rain, but some flight
restrictions to MVFR are possible. Winds become N behind the
front overnight Sunday and Monday morning, and will be elevated
through midday along the coast. Another system will bring a more
widespread rain Tuesday, with flight restrictions likely.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday...

- Extended Small Craft Advisories through 7 AM this morning due
  to elevated NW winds.

- Benign conditions return today into early Sunday with high
  pressure, but then another period of SCAs is likely Sunday
  night/Monday behind the next cold front.

- A complex coastal low pressure system brings degraded marine
  conditions Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with SCAs
  likely and low-end gales possible.

NW winds are gradually diminishing over the coastal waters this
morning as high pressure builds into the area from the west.
Observations over the Bay still show winds in the 15 - 25 kt range
with a few gust near 30 kt and similar conditions on the coastal
waters off of the Delmarva, though not right near the coast.  As the
area of high pressure, now centered over Southern WV moves over the
waters later today, expect the winds to continue to diminish.  For
now, the SCA headlines remain in effect until 4 AM.

The area of high pressure quickly moves from being centered over the
Mid Atlantic states to offshore by Sunday morning with a shift in
the winds to the SE and then S on Sunday ahead of a rapidly
approaching cold front.  The models are in sync with the timing of
the front moving through the area Sunday evening.  There should be
enough cold air moving in to allow sufficient mixing for SCA level
winds.  The only potential issue could be the upper trough is
lifting NE away from the area, which could limit the southern extend
of the SCA level winds.  So for now, will not add a new headline for
possible SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday.

High pressure again returns over the area on Monday midday into
Early Tuesday Morning.  This will allow a period of calmer
conditions before a stronger southern stream storm system arrives
for Tuesday into Wednesday.  Initially, winds should be out of the E-
SE as the main low pressure system heads into the Ohio Valley with
the surface high retreating to the NE.  But as a coastal low
develops, expect the winds to switch to the NW and intensify as the
low pressure off the coast deepens as it heads NE. While gale
conditions are possible with this system, there is still uncertainty
with the track of the sfc low and how quickly the low pressure
strengthens that could impact the timing and strength of the
winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...RMM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ESS