Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240211
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1011 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest late Sunday, then
drop across the area Sunday evening into Monday morning. High
pressure will build in from the north Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered showers along stationary front to the north are
diminishing in areal coverage attm. Have lingered a low pop
through around midnight. Otherwise, have updated to lower sky
cover late in subsidence behind departing shortwave trough.
Remaining mild and muggy, with patchy fog late over the
piedmont. Early morning lows in the 60s out west to low 70s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

Very warm and still rather humid on Sunday, as winds will be
more W-SW in advance of an actual cold front approaching fm the
NW. Partly to mostly sunny with highs generally 90-95F.
Dewpoints should remain in the mid 70s during peak heating for
NE NC adjacent to the Albemarle Sound and this will result in
heat indices of 105-108F and a heat advisory has been issued. It
could be close in far SE VA as well, so the heat advisory may
need to be expanded. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms
(20-30%) are possible later Sunday aftn/evening, with a
lingering chc of showers into Monday morning. Lows Sunday night
will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Monday will be dry for
most of the area and slightly less humid, as high pressure
starts to build in from the north. Iso-sct (20-30%) sea-breeze
convection is possible in NE NE. Highs will mainly be in the mid
to upper 80s.

High pressure is forecast to build into the region Monday night
into Tuesday resulting in pleasant and dry conditions. Lows
Monday night range through the 60s to around 70F far SE,
followed by highs Tuesday in the low/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Saturday...

The big story in the extended will be the warming trend as a
strong and anomalous ridge centers itself over the NE states
through the end of next week. After temperatures close to normal
on Wednesday and Thursday with an upper trough moving through,
expect temps to rise into the middle 90s Friday and Saturday in
response to the 595+ DM high centered over New England. Other
than the chance of showers and storms Wed night into Thursday
with the frontal passage, expect mainly diurnally driven
afternoon/evening pop up thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Will
need to maintain chance pops each day Fri/Sat to account for
these storms, but it certainly does not look like widespread
rainfall these days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Saturday...

Showers and tstms continue to persist over the SE portions of
the CWA, especially Hampton Roads and NE NC. Convection to the
west has mostly diminished or completely dissipated. Some
scattered showers and tstms also continue over parts of
southern MD and might affect the Eastern Shore in the next hour
or two.

Frontal boundary across the region will generally move north of
the area on Sunday keeping the region in warm humid air. Expect
another afternoon/evening of scattered showers and tstms on
Sunday with the threats mainly being heavy rain and brief gusty
winds.

A cold front finally drops through the region Monday. Mainly
dry with a northerly wind. However, there is a slight chc of
aftn sea-breeze showers/tstms at ECG. High pressure and drier
air prevail Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure moves
offshore by Wednesday and Thursday with a chc of aftn/evening
showers/tstms by Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 415 PM EDT Saturday...

Have opted to drop the SCA for the northern coastal waters.
Latest guidance and current observations suggest the seas will
stay at or below 4 ft tonight into Sunday. Otherwise, south
winds tonight of 10-20kt will shift to the SW and weaken late
tonight into Sunday. A cold front moves through Sunday night
allowing winds to shift to the north. May see wind gusts to 15
to 20 kt behind the front, especially Monday night as the high
builds in. The high shifts offshore by Wednesday which will
allow winds to turn southerly.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning is in effect for the North Anna and upper
Pamunkey Rivers due to the combination of heavy rainfall and
increased dam releases at Lake Anna. The increased dam releases
have been terminated, but it will still take some time for the
water to flow through the basin. Therefore, the warning has been
extended through Sunday morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of minor coastal flooding near Bishops Head with
this evenings high tide, and coastal flood advisory has been
issued. After tonight, it does not look like additional coastal
flooding is expected.

A moderate rip current risk continues along the eastern shore
beaches with low risk at VA Beach and the northern OB.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RIC ended up with 7.61 inches of rain Friday. See RERRIC for details.
This is the second all time daily rainfall record at RIC. The all-
time daily rainfall record at RIC is 8.79 inches set on August 12,
1955 associated with Hurricane Connie. June 2018 (13.08 to date)
will be the wettest June on record at RIC.

In addition, ORF set a new daily rainfall record of 2.28 inches Friday.
See RERORF for details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>023.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ015>017-031-
     032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...



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