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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200023
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
823 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening into early
Saturday. An upper level low will be slow to lift away to the
northeast over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 425 PM EDT Friday...

Significant wx expected acrs the CWA fm late this aftn into
early Sat morning, as numerous showers/tstms right in advance of
a cold front and well ahead of a digging upper trough to the
west, will push ENE acrs the region. A potentially volatile
combination of wind shear and instability, along with PWATs
between 1.5-1.7 inches, will result in the possibility of strong
or severe storms, along with concern for heavy rain/flash
flooding.

The main threat with any severe storms will be for damaging wind
gusts, especially in any bowing line segments that form. However,
model forecast soundings continue to indicate 100 to as much as
300 m2/s2 of 0-1km storm relative helicity, which would support
a continued threat for embedded supercellular structures and
associated tornado potential within the convective line. The
pcpn and cold front will push offshore during Sat morning, with
at least partial clearing fm west to east very late tonight thru
Sat morning. Lows tonight mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 440 PM EDT Friday...

Most of the region will become at least partly sunny during Sat,
as pcpn pushes out to sea and upper low pressure remains west of
the area. A few isolated showers could move into extrm wrn
counties late in the day. Highs on Sat will range fm the mid 60s
to lower 70s. Upper low pressure will then move into and acrs
the region Sat night into early Mon morning. This will result in
more clouds along with a slgt chc to chc PoPs for showers. More
sunshine will return to all areas during Mon, as the upper low
moves away to the NE.

Lows Sat night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Sun in the
60s. Lows Sun night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Mon in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

The extended period begins with the upper trough that will
impact the region this weekend finally exiting the area and a
stronger upper level ridge building in and across the
southeastern US. As the ridge builds in, expect to see a period
of warmer weather and also drier conditions on Tuesday.

There is a great deal of uncertainty from Wednesday through
Friday however as several shortwave troughs try to break down
the SE ridge and push a surface front through the area. The
models are showing little consistency between themselves and
little run to run consistency either. The 00z ECMWF was quicker
to push the surface front south of the area as it was more
progressive with the upper level shortwave trough and had the
surface front south of the region by Thursday before lifting it
back north on Friday. The 12z GFS on the other hand was slower
to move the front through waiting until Thursday night to push
the front through as a stronger northern stream trough
approaches on Friday. Then the 12z ECMWF completely changed
things by being so slow that is never has the front reach the
area and amplifies the upper trough over Texas and holds the
front northwest of the area into Friday night. So confidence in
the over pattern is low. For now, have added a generally low
chance of showers into the forecast from Wednesday into Friday
and it will all be dependent on the position of the front.

For temperatures, have gone a touch warmer on Tuesday into
Wednesday with readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. But a
touch cooler on Thursday and Friday with readings in the mid
70s. But if the front does stay to the north, readings could be
a little warmer toward the tail end of next week. Overnight lows
should stay on the milder side in the 50s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Friday...

Synoptic southerly winds at 10-20 knots with gusts to around 30
knots will continue thru early tonight at the TAF sites, outside
of showers/tstms associated with the cold front. Otherwise,
heavier showers and strong or severe tstms will push ewrd acrs
ern TAF sites tonight into early Sat morning, with localized
restrictions to MVFR (IFR?), as the frontal boundary pushes into
and acrs the area. The pcpn and cold front will push offshore
during Sat morning, with VFR conditions returning for the
remainder of Sat.

Outlook: Upper low will be slow to move into and acrs the region
Sat evening into early Mon morning. This will result in more
clouds (still mainly VFR CIGs), esply over RIC/SBY/PHF, along
with the slgt or sml chc for showers.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Deep low pressure will track NNE over the Piedmont late this
aftn and evening with an intensifying LLJ over the Mid-Atlantic
coast. A S wind will increase to 20-25kt through this aftn, with
occasional gusts to ~35kt as showers/tstms track NNE along the
wrn shore of the Bay. A S wind will increase to 25-30kt this
evening with the potential for 35-40kt gusts (and potentially
stronger with convection later this evening, which can be
handled with SMWs). The Gale Warning has been added to the Bay,
Lower James, and nrn ocean as observed gusts to ~35kt have
increased over the past 1-2hrs. Waves to build to 4-5 ft on the
Chesapeake Bay, seas to 7-10 ft (by late today into tonight).
Winds are expected to diminish overnight tonight post
convection.

Low pressure will be slow to exit the region during the
weekend. Will maintain a S wind 15-20 kt Saturday for most
marine areas (aob 15 kt on the rivers), becoming SW for Saturday
night, Sunday with further lowering of speeds expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 350 PM EDT Friday...

Latest guidance depicts potential minor tidal flooding for the
Bay-side of the lower MD Ern Shore where tidal departures are
expected to average 1.0-1.5ft MLLW. Additional minor flooding
is possible along the Albemarle Sound with a strong S wind. A
coastal flood advisory has been issued for the MD Ern Shore from
midnight to 7 am Saturday, and a coastal flood statement has
been issued through 8 am Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ021>023.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ