Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 231847
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
147 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will track northeast along the
mountains today and Thursday. The associated warm front lifts
continues to lift north of the region through this afternoon. The
trailing cold front crosses the area Thursday. High pressure
builds in again for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 115 PM EST Wednesday...

Latest analysis indicates sfc warm front lifting NNW and now
placing most of the CWA in the warm sector. Any rain chances
will be minimal and limited to the far western portions of the
CWA this aftn. With a breezy southerly flow and partial
sunshine, gridded forecast was updated earlier to raise highs
several degrees into the lower-mid 60s for most of SE VA/NE NC,
and into the mid/upper 50s to lower 60s for much of central and
eastern VA and the eastern shore. Only areas with highs that may
struggle to reach into the 50s will be over the far west
(especially Fluvanna/Louisa).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

The warm front should be north of the entire area this evening
leaving the fa in the warm sector overnight. Meanwhile, moisture
from the second area of low pressure overspreads the region
starting late in the evening over the west then over the rest of
the area after 06Z. Chc to low end likely PoPS this eve ramp up
to high end likely and categorical after midnight. Some mdt to
locally hvy rainfall enters the Piedmont late. Much warmer with
nearly steady temps thru the night from the mid 40s NW to
mid/upper 50s SE.

The low tracks ne across the region Thu morning with the trailing
cold front crossing the area thru the day, pushing offshore by 00Z
Fri. Data shows a decent slug of srn stream moisture combined with
strong lift btwn 12Z-18Z just ahead of the cold front. Some convective
elements noted for a band of locally heavy downpours. Thus,
added some R+ for a few hr period. Pcpn quickly tapers off to
some light rain or showers Thu aftn west to east as the front
pushes all the deep moisture towards the coast. Mild with highs
55-60 north to 60-65 south. Can`t rule out some elevated thunder
along the sern beaches in the aftn, but left thunder out of the
fcst thinking it remains offshore closer to the Gulf Stream
wall. QPF arnd one inch.

Clearing and colder Thurs night as high pressure builds in from
the nw. Lows mid 20s nw to mid 30s se. Back to below normal
temps Fri and Fri night. Plenty of sunshine Fri. Highs upr 30s
nw to mid 40s se. Lows Fri night upr teens nw to upr 20s se.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EST Tuesday...

The extended looks fairly quiet at least for our region as the
main storm systems stay north or west of the area...or well
offshore. High pressure over the area Saturday gradually shifts
NE through Sunday with the ridge axis staying in place across
the area. A weak upper disturbance moves well north of the area
later Sunday which may allow for some light precipitation
Sunday night, but given the lack of moisture will keep just a
slight chance of rain (or snow across the NW). Warm advection
again develops Monday into Tuesday as upper heights build ahead
of another Great Lakes low pressure system. The associated cold
front is expected to approach the area on Tuesday with chance of
rain across the west and north.

Highs over the weekend will be seasonably cool with temps in the
40s Saturday and mid 40s-lower 50s Sunday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Wednesday...

Rather strong gradient between approaching low pressure west of
the Appalachians and retreating but still strong sfc high
pressure off the coast. South winds have become gusty this
afternoon (to 20-30kt) and this will continue tonight through
Thu morning. Also continuing to highlight LLWS btwn 45-60 KTS
at 2K FT due to a strong low level jet tonight/early thu morning.
Rain overspreads the area west to east, mainly between
06-12Z/Thu along with lowering CIGS. This trend is a slower
arrival of rain and thus no IFR conditions are expected until
after 12Z at main terminals. Rain expected to be heavy from
12-16Z and expect to see lowest VSBYS with the rain and lowest
CIGS probably lag by 1-2 hrs. Some brief gusts to 35-40kt will
be possible during the period as well, especially if a more
organized line of showers develops (though chance for
tstms/lightning is very low).


OUTLOOK...
Cold front will be pushing off the coast by 18Z/Thu, with rain
coming to an end from west to east and winds shifting to the WNW
at 10-20 kt. High pressure briefly returns Thu night...before
another cold front/sfc trough crosses the area on Fri. Lighter
winds and VFR/dry Fri night/Sat. Winds shift around to the south
Sat night and Sun as low pressure tracks through the Great
Lakes but conditions look to remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 930 AM EST Wednesday...

Seasonally strong surface high pressure continues to move offshore
early this morning with winds across the marine area becoming
southerly at 5-15 knots. Waves are 1-2 feet in the Bay with 2-4 foot
seas offshore.

A digging upper trough across the central portion of the country is
allowing surface low pressure to deepen across the Mississippi
Valley. Increasingly steep pressure gradient between the departing
high and approaching low will allow winds to increase in magnitude
through the course of the day and especially into the evening and
overnight hours tonight. Southerly winds in the Bay increase to 15-
20 knots this afternoon with 20-25 knot southerly winds by this
evening offshore. Small Craft Advisories will begin for the Bay and
northern offshore zones shortly after noon and all the rivers,
Currituck Sound, and remaining offshore zones following suit a
few hours later. Winds and seas will increase further overnight
into Thursday as a secondary area of low pressure forms along
the trailing cold front. Winds in the Bay will run 20-25 with
gusts to 30 knots by Thursday morning while winds offshore
increase to 25-30 with gusts to 35 knots. A few gusts could
exceed 35 knots during this period, especially across the
northern offshore zones. Opted not to issue a Gale Watch with
this package due to the relatively brief window for Gale
conditions and the less than climatologically favored southerly
wind direction, however, will continue to watch this period
closely in subsequent forecasts. Seas will build as winds
increase Thursday morning with 8-12 foot seas possible across
the northern offshore zones, slightly lower to the south where
5-9 foot seas are expected. Will have to monitor for the
potential for a High Surf Advisory on Thursday from roughly Cape
Charles Light northward. Winds will become northwesterly behind
the surface cold front late Thursday afternoon. Cold advection
behind the front appears rather anemic with northwest winds
15-20 knots in its wake, decreasing further Thursday evening.
Seas will be slow to subside Thursday and SCAs for offshore
zones will likely need to be extended into Friday to cover this
threat.

High pressure builds into the region on Friday with tranquil marine
conditions in store through the upcoming weekend.

&&


.EQUIPMENT...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

The KAKQ radar remains down due to a pedestal slip ring
assembly failure. Due to the time to procure/ship the needed
parts, and the repair time, the radar will remain down through
at least Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...TMG/RHR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ


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