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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 250201
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1001 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure slides into the Canadian maritimes
overnight. A warm front pushes north across the area Tuesday.
Low pressure approaches the Mid Atlantic coast from the
southeast Tuesday night, then pushes offshore Wednesday. A cold
front moves into the middle Atlantic Wednesday night, then
stalls across the far southern part of the local area on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 950 PM EDT Monday...

Just isolated to sctd showers or patchy drizzle expected mainly
acrs the nrn third of the region overnight. Otherwise, the
wedge continues across the Mid Atlc, likely being reinforced by
the rain falling across MD and PA, with low stratus having a
tough time scouring out over much of the VA nrn neck WSW into
the VA Piedmont counties. The wedge should persist overnight,
but will gradually start to break down somewhat, as the parent
high over nrn New England moves into the Canadian maritimes.
As such, will maintain cloudy conditions across the north and
Piedmont, although the SE part of the forecast area should
remain clear/partly cloudy. Lows will range thru the 60s into
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Low level flow turns more southeasterly as low pressure off the
NC/SC coast moves northwest toward the Outer Banks on Tuesday.
NWP suggest that the moisture associated with this system will
start to impact the SE part of the forecast area Tue aftn/night.
Other than some scattered showers/storms am not expecting much
more from this system as it is forecast to remain just offshore
with the best lift and moisture remaining offshore or to the
south. Meanwhile, moisture associated with the Great Lakes
trough will remain west of the region, but given the increased
sunshine due to the wedge breaking down there will be at least
some scattered afternoon/evening diurnal showers and storms.
Better chances for showers/storms late Wed night through
Thursday as the Great Lakes upper trough moves east allowing the
sfc cold front to move through the area. The frontal boundary
slows down and stalls out over the SE part of the forecast area
Wed night into Thursday as it becomes parallel to the upper flow
aloft. Meanwhile, an upper wave moves across the area in the SW
flow aloft. This will allow for Thursday to be a generally rainy
day and have gone likely pops across much of the forecast area.
Highs on Tuesday rise into the 80s most areas and mid-upr 80s on
Wednesday. Rain and clouds combined with developing NE flow will
yield temps back into the upr 60s NW and mid 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Monday...

Forecast period starts with a cold front pushing through the
area on Friday, as broad high pressure builds to the north of
the area Friday night into Saturday. GFS remains a bit quicker
to bring cooler and drier air through post-frontal during the
day on Friday, so did lower pop slightly Friday afternoon, but
did maintain a slight chance mention for all but far NW piedmont
zones. Weekend looking a bit cooler and drier, or at least
relatively speaking...as temperatures look to fall back toward
climo normal w/high pressure building over the region. Highs
generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday through
Sunday with dewpoints dropping off slightly each day late Friday
into the weekend. Lows generally upper 50s to low 60s inland
and upper 60s to low 70s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 805 PM EDT Monday...

IFR to low end MVFR conditions continue at all sites except ECG
this evening, as the wedge remains in place. Expect IFR to LIFR
conditions to prevail through the night in Rain and drizzle and
low ceilings at RIC/SBY, with IFR at PHF. Meanwhile, MVFR to low
end MVFR conditions will prevail at ORF/ECG. The wedge breaks
down by Tuesday so all sites should become VFR by late Tue
morning.

Outlook...Scattered showers/storms possible Tue afternoon,
however a better chance for showers/storms Wed afternoon-Thu as
a cold front moves into the middle Atlantic and stalls out by
Thursday. Could see IFR conditions on Thursday similar to today
as another wedge establishes itself.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 805 PM EDT Monday...

Quick update to raise SCA flag once again for a few hours this
evening over the rivers. Gradient/channeling should diminish
enough to allow flags to lower for rivers and most of the Bay by
midnight...though north of Windmill, expect winds to hang on
longer. Have therefore pushed SCA north of Windmill Pt through
08z/4a EDT.

Previous discussion...

Latest observations show easterly flow of 15-25 knots across
the marine area. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect
for the rivers, bay, and coastal waters. Waves and seas are
elevated as well while easterly flow persists today. Winds
should begin to subside this evening and overnight as parent
high pressure across New England, responsible for our easterly
flow, begins to move away to the east and relax the local
pressure gradient a bit. As this transition takes place during
the overnight hours, our winds will take on a southeasterly
component for Tuesday into Wednesday but will retain at least
some onshore character through about mid week. Small craft
conditions are expected to continue for the coastal zones
through at least Wednesday as large seas will be slow to subside
after the wind takes on a greater southerly component by mid
week.

The latter half of the week looks somewhat unsettled as a cold
front with associated showers and storms approaches the area
late Wednesday and into Thursday, allowing local winds to
briefly take on a northerly component in its wake.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 930 PM EDT Monday...

Surge of onshore winds allowing for slightly higher than
expected tidal levels this evening in the lower Bay. Did add a
Coastal Flood Statement for lower Bay and Middle Peninsula,
mainly for Sewells Pt/Mobjack and Jamestown which should all
approach minor thresholds this evening.

Went with an advisory tonight over northern neck counties and
Ches Bay side of the lower eastern shore (MD). Tidal anomalies
will once again increase at bit for much of the area through
Tuesday, with possible shallow/minor flooding with tide cycles
through Tue night (esp for counties in VA/MD invof middle and
upper Ches Bay).

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX is offline due to an equipment issue. Parts are on order
and technicians hope to have radar online after parts are
received. However, no return to service time is available at
this time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075-077-
     078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635-
     636-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ631-632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG/MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
EQUIPMENT...AKQ