183
FXUS61 KAKQ 031516
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1016 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails today through Thursday bringing dry and
cool weather for the middle of the week. A low pressure system
tracks across the region Friday into Friday night with a
potential for light snow or a light wintry mix across portions
of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Below average temperatures with sunny and dry conditions are
  expected today.

- Mostly clear and cold tonight.

A ~984mb low pressure was centered E of Cape Cod early this
morning with a trailing cold front now well offshore. Meanwhile,
a ~1023mb high pressure was centered over the lower Mississippi
Valley and Mid-South. Temperatures as of 10 AM ranged from the
upper 30s to around 40F. High pressure continues to build in
from the W today. Mostly sunny and cool today with high
temperatures in the mid 40s, which are ~10F below seasonal
averages. The wind is expected to diminish this afternoon as the
high moves into the area. High pressure remains centered in
vicinity of the coast tonight. Mostly clear, calm, and chilly
with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather continues Thursday and Thursday night.

- There is increasing potential for light snow and a wintry mix
  Friday into Friday night.

High pressure slides offshore Thursday resulting in moderating
temperatures, but still slightly below seasonal averages.
Forecast highs range from the mid/upper 40s N to the lower 50s S
with increasing cirrus clouds. A dry cold front drops through
the area later Thursday afternoon and evening with 1028-1030mb
high pressure building to the N Thursday night into early
Friday. Low temperatures once again drop into the mid 20s to
lower 30s, with lower 20s possible across the N if enough
clearing occurs. The airmass behind this front is rather cold
locally for the first week of December, and dry with dewpoints
potentially dropping to 15-20F across the NW by early Friday.

High pressure gradually retreats to the NE Friday with the cold
front becoming stationary well S of the local area. The flow
aloft will generally be zonal to begin the day, but will amplify
to some extent as a trough digs into the upper Midwest. A
powerful upper jet upwards of 175kt is progged to extend from
the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. A wave of low
pressure is expected to develop along the stationary front
Friday beneath the RRQ of the upper jet with some assistance
from a sheared shortwave trough from 700-500mb. There is
increasing potential for a period of snow transitioning to a
wintry mix or rain Friday across most of the area, remaining
wintry longer to the NW, and mainly rain for far SE VA and most
of NE NC. The 00z/03 EPS and EC AIFS each depict 50-80% of >1"
of snow for most of the area (assuming a 10:1 ratio and
idealized accumulation), with probs dropping sharply for >3".
The 00z/03 GEFS remains lower, but has trended up to 30-50%
through 12z/7 AM Saturday. As moisture shallows Friday night
precipitation could change to light freezing rain from central
VA to the Piedmont where a light ice accretion is possible.

Temperatures will potentially be quite cold for early December
during the day Friday. The EPS/GEFS show 2m temperatures roughly
15- 20F below average at 18z Friday (especially inland), which
could result in high temperatures struggling to get out of the
lower 30s, with some colder guidance showing temperatures
remaining in the upper 20s over the Piedmont. Below average, but
not as cold for far SE VA and coastal NE NC. Lows Friday night
area forecast to range from the mid/upper 20s NW to the upper
30s/around 40F SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Wednesday...

- Below average temperatures continue this weekend and early
  next week.

- Mainly dry aside from a secondary low pressure system
  potentially clipping the coast Sunday night and early Monday.

The 00z/03 EPS and GEFS show PW values falling below normal
Saturday into Sunday, so generally dry conditions are favored
despite the NBM trying to hold on to low PoPs Saturday into
Saturday night. An upper trough and cold front push across the
region Sunday night into early Monday with a wave of low
pressure potentially developing offshore of the Southeast coast.
Most guidance is generally dry locally, with the more amplified
00z/03 GFS being an outlier at this time. Below normal
temperatures are favored this weekend into early next week, with
the aforementioned cold front reinforcing colder air Monday and
Tuesday. A moderating trend toward seasonal averages in
possible by the middle of next week with dry conditions favored.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Wednesday...

High pressure is building in from the W as of 12z in the wake
of low pressure and a cold front. Primarily VFR under a mostly
clear sky with a NW wind of 8-12kt, with occasional gusts
approaching 20kt. However, there are some bands of SC along the
coast with patchy MVFR cigs ~3kft. VFR conditions are expected
to prevail today into tonight, aside from occasional BKN MVFR
cigs at ORF through ~15z, with generally a clear/sunny sky. The
wind will remain NW 8-12kt through mid-aftn, before diminishing
and shifting to W/SW. By tonight, the wind will be calm to very
light.

VFR conditions continue Thursday as high pressure remains over
the region. A low pressure system will bring the potential for
degraded flight conditions Friday into Friday night with
potentially snow turning to a wintry mix for the northern
terminals and mainly rain for the southeastern terminals. Drier
conditions return by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into the morning
  hours as winds begin to subside.

- Another round of elevated winds is expected late Thursday
  into Friday.

Early morning surface analysis shows the low pressure system
that developed off our coast yesterday now located just offshore
of Cape Cod with its trailing cold front also offshore. The
departure of this system allowed for colder, drier air to rush
into our local area causing increased northwesterly winds. As of
this writing, winds continue to come down a bit, but are still
well within SCA criteria at 18-24kt with gusts up to 25-30kt.
Waves in the Bay are 2- 4ft with seas reaching 4-6ft, with some
7-8ft across the south. Thus, the SCAs will remain in place for
the rivers and Sound until 7am, the Bay until 10am, and the
coastal waters until noon due to lingering seas of 5+ ft. High
pressure will build in overhead this morning allowing winds to
continue to decrease and become 10kt or less this afternoon and
into the overnight hours. Seas and waves will decrease as well
to 2-4ft and 1-2ft respectively.

A dry cold front will push through the Mid-Atlantic during the
day on Thursday turning winds out of the north/northwest and
increasing speeds once again. Guidance indicates SCAs will be
likely for the Bay Thursday afternoon into the early overnight
hours of Friday. Confidence in SCA wind speeds is less for the
coastal waters, though some 5ft seas may build back in. Some
variability in model solutions remains regarding the next
weather system on Friday. Another surface low may develop off
the coast, which could have impacts to our waters depending on
the track/timing. Stay tuned to future forecast updates for more
info. We may stay in a more active weather pattern for the
weekend and beyond as well. This could bring more frequent
periods of elevated winds.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/HET
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP