068
FXUS61 KAKQ 311045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with
below average temperatures today into mid week. A cold front
approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a
chance for showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining dry today, becoming breezy along the coast of SE VA and
  NE NC.

Remaining dry with below normal temperatures once again today,
though with sfc high pressure slowly building E-SE from the Great
Lakes, and a developing sfc trough off the Carolina coast, NE winds
increase across SE VA and NE NC, especially near the coast, with
gusts in the 20-25 mph range by late morning into the afternoon. The
upper trough approaches from the NW with a low amplitude short wave
moving through the base of the larger trough, resulting in more
clouds by afternoon/evening. High temperatures look to be primarily
in the mid to upper 70s with dew points from the upper 40s/lower 50s
NW to the upper 50s in the SE. Clouds thin out overnight with temps
in the low 50s W and NW to the low/mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday
  and Tuesday.

Basically a persistence forecast Monday and Tuesday with highs in
the 70s to low 80s and dew points in the 50s. Remaining breezy near
the coast Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Think the
low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area
but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX
Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds
expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be
similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Cool and dry
again Tuesday night with lows back into the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Continued dry on Wednesday with slightly higher temps and humidity.

- Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into
  Friday as a front approaches the region from the west and
  potentially interacts with a weak coastal low.

High pressure over the region moves offshore on Wednesday, allowing
winds to swing around to the SE and S. Temperatures increase into
the low 80s for much of the area with dew points increasing into the
mid and upper 50s to low 60s. Latest guidance keeps the area dry
overnight with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Clouds increase on Thursday with a slight chance for showers across
most of the area, slightly higher in the Piedmont and along the SE
coastal counties as the surface cold front and another coastal
trough interact. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest
increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid
60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday,
especially across the northern half of the area. 00z guidance begins
to diverge thereafter with the GFS keeping unsettled conditions into
the upcoming weekend while the ECMWF is dry and comfortable. Will
stick close to the blended guidance, keeping temps in the upper 70s
to low 80s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the mid 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/31 TAF period. Mostly
clear skies noted on satellite and surface observations with
some clouds across the far northwest and into NE NC. Winds are
generally light inland and NE 5-10 kt at ORF and ECG. NE winds
5-10 kt resume this morning at RIC, SBY, and PHF. ORF and ECG
generally 10-15 kt with gusts ~20 kt. Passing short wave aloft
will allow for SCT/BKN cirrus today. Some scattered CU is also
possible late morning into the afternoon hours.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through
midweek. Remaining breezy at the coast Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

- A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected
  beginning this afternoon and continuing through Monday. Small
  Craft Advisories have been issued for a portion of the coastal
  waters and lower Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday
  night.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered north of the area
(over the Great Lakes). Meanwhile, ~1012 mb low pressure is located
just off the far northern FL/southern GA coast. Winds range from E
to NE over the waters, with wind speed ~5 knots north to 10 to 15
knots south. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and waves in the
Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet.

High pressure will remain in place (slightly north of the area) into
early this week. The area of low pressure that is currently located
off the FL/GA coast will start to move further to the NE and develop
off the Carolina Coast over the next day or so. The gradient between
the high to our north and low to our south will tighten, leading to
increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters,
starting this later this morning and continuing through at least
Monday. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time
(highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot (locally 20-25 knot)
winds is likely this afternoon into Monday, mainly on the coastal
waters S of Parramore Island. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for coastal waters S of Parramore Island, the Currituck
Sound, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. These this afternoon in
the southern coastal waters, sound, and bay and tonight in the
northern waters. Have also raised Small Craft Advisories for the
lower Chesapeake Bay (south of New Point Comfort) and the far
northern coastal waters, starting late this afternoon in the bay and
tonight for the far northern coastal waters. These higher winds will
also increase the seas to 4-6 ft, potentially a ft or so higher S of
the NC/VA border. SCAs may also be needed for the remainder of the
Chesapeake Bay around sunrise Monday AM, but will let the next shift
reevaluate. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with
mainly sub- SCA winds in the forecast late next week.

Seas will remain at 2-3 ft in the Ocean and 1-2 ft in the Bay this
morning ahead of the wind surge. The persistent onshore flow will
result in building seas later today into Monday, with 4 to 6 feet
seas forecast by tonight and Monday (and continuing through Tuesday
before slowly subsiding).

Rip Currents: The rip current risk will remain moderate across the
southern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk across the northern
beaches. As winds increase and become more onshore, the moderate
risk will expand to the northern beaches on Monday and Tuesday. A
high risk is now expected at the southern beaches Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Based on the
forecast for the 31st (Sunday`s) temperatures, the best
estimation is:

- RIC: 7th or 8th coolest on record, coolest August since 1992.
- SBY: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 2008.
- ECG: 3rd or 4th coolest on record, coolest August since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...LKB/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/SW
CLIMATE...