206
FXUS61 KAKQ 171956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure becomes centered over the region tonight into
early Tuesday. The high moves offshore Tuesday afternoon ahead
of a low pressure system, which will bring a quick chance of
rain Tuesday night. Primarily dry Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Clear and chilly tonight as high pressure settles over the
  area.

A potent upper trough is located over New England and Atlantic
Canada this afternoon, with strong ~975mb low pressure lingering
over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Meanwhile, ~1020mb low
pressure is centered over the Midwest. Dry NW flow continues
over the Mid-Atlantic between the high to the W and the low to
the NE. Sunny this afternoon (aside from scattered cumulus over
the MD Eastern Shore) with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Dewpoints range from the mid teens to mid 20s, with RH
values ranging from 15-25% for most of the area and 30-35% over
the Eastern Shore. High pressure builds in from the W tonight
and becomes centered over the region by early Tuesday. A clear
sky, combined with a calm to very light wind and a dry airmass
should result in rather ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Forecast lows are in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, with mid
20s possible in some favored cold spots. Lows along the coast
will mainly be in the mid 30s to around 40F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moves in later Tuesday into Tuesday night with
  rain chances for the local area.

High pressure slides offshore Tuesday morning. Clouds increase
and thicken later Tuesday morning into the afternoon (from NW to
SE) ahead of a weakening surface low pressure system
approaching from the WNW. Rain will attempt to arrive from W-E
late Tuesday afternoon, but will initially have to overcome a
rather dry airmass as forecast soundings depict a rather dry
sub-cloud layer. The highest rain chances, 60-80% are primarily
along and north of the US-460 corridor Tuesday evening, then
shifting ESE overnight, with PoPs tapering to 30-50% from
southern VA into NE NC. The latest trends amongst 17/12z
ensemble systems and blends is for median QPF of 0.25-0.4" N to
0.1" or less S. Overall, a beneficial rainfall is not expected,
and if locally higher amounts do occur, they would likely be
from the Northern Neck to the Lower MD Eastern Shore. The bulk
of the rain likely falls Tuesday evening, lingering closer to
the coast overnight/early Wednesday morning. High temperatures
Tuesday will range from the upper 50s/lower 60s in the far
south, to the lower 50s for the north, with some upper 40s
possible in the northern piedmont if thicker cloud cover arrives
earlier. Low temperatures will not be as chilly given clouds
and rain, and range from the upper 30s N to the mid 40s S.

Low pressure pushes offshore Wednesday with weak high pressure
building in from the W. Mainly dry aside from low rain chances
along the coast early Wednesday. Becoming partly sunny with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s N to the mid 60s S
(though will note there is some spread in guidance as the 17/12z
NAM continues to keep some low clouds in place most of the
day). Partly cloudy Wednesday evening, with increasing clouds
overnight. Lows will be mild, generally ranging through the 40s.
Partly sunny Thursday with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s NE to the mid/upper 60s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming temperatures are expected for the remainder
  of the week.

- Passing disturbances bring chances of light rain late Thursday
  night into Saturday.

Weakening low pressure tracks front the Great Lakes to the
northeast Thursday night into Friday, with the trailing (but
weakening) cold front dropping into the area Friday night into
Saturday. This will produce occasional low-end light rain
chances (greatest N) later Thursday night through Saturday.
Spread in the model guidance has improved some by later in the
weekend and early next week, and overall shows weak high
pressure and dry conditions by Sunday and Monday. A gradual
moderating trend is expected Friday and Saturday with highs
mainly in the 60s Thursday (50s NE), then upper 60s to lower 70s
Friday and Saturday, with mid 70s possible S both days.
Forecast lows are in the mid 40s to lower 50s Friday morning,
and then the 50s Saturday morning. The latest blended guidance
depicts slightly cooler, but still near to above average
temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Monday...

VFR, sunny, and dry as of 18z with FEW-SCT CU at SBY. The wind
is NW ~15kt with gusts ~25kt, NW 10-15kt with occasional gusts
to ~20kt at most sites, and locally lighter at ORF. The wind
should diminish quickly ~21z at most sites and closer to 23z at
SBY. VFR and dry tonight with a calm to light generally NW wind
as high pressure builds across the region. Continued VFR
Tuesday. High pressure slides offshore in the morning with a
light E to SE wind developing. High clouds increase and thicken
Tuesday aftn as low pressure approaches from the W.

Rain becomes likely from RIC to SBY Tuesday night, with a
chance of light rain farther south as the aforementioned low
pressure system tracks across the area. Degraded flight
conditions are expected st SBY, with brief sub-VFR conditions
possible at RIC, and the latest trends indicating predominant
VFR conditions elsewhere. Primarily VFR Wednesday through
Thursday as weak high pressure returns. Another chance for light
rain arrives Friday into Saturday as low pressure tracks N of
the area Friday, followed by the associated cold front dropping
into the region Saturday. The best chc for light rain is at the
northern terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters north
  of Parramore Island and the Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill
  Point into early tonight.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected from Tuesday through
  Friday.

- Winds become elevated and northerly behind a cold front late Friday
  night into Saturday.

Afternoon surface analysis depicted a strong area of low pressure NE
of Maine (~976mb) with a ~1022mb area of high pressure building in
from the west. The pressure gradient between these two features
remains tight enough across the northern waters for NW winds of 15-
25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt to continue into early tonight. As
such, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
north of Parramore Island and the Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill
Point into early tonight. Farther south, the weaker gradient has
allowed for lighter NW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this
afternoon. The area of high pressure builds into the region from the
west overnight, centering over the local waters by Tue. As such,
expect winds to gradually diminish overnight before becoming light
and variable on Tue. A period of generally benign marine conditions
is expected from Tue through Fri with sub-SCA conditions likely. The
next chance for SCA conditions isn`t until Fri night or Sat when N
winds become elevated behind a cold front. However, confidence is
quite low at this time.

Seas of 3-5 ft this afternoon subside to 2-3 ft by late tonight
(earlier across the southern coastal waters). Meanwhile, waves
gradually subside from 2-3 ft this afternoon to 1-2 ft by late
tonight. The next chance for elevated seas of 4-5 ft is Sat behind
the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...

An IFD/SPS has been issued from late morning through 5PM across
all VA-MD zones. High pressure will be slow to build in from
the W today as strong low pressure lingers across eastern Quebec
and Atlantic Canada. We have had relatively poor RH recovery
early this morning (though some sheltered locations have started
to de-couple and RH may reach >80% for a few hrs this morning).
Either way, a very dry day is expected with min RH values
dropping to 15-20% along and W of I95, to 20-30% most other
places (28-35% eastern shore). The pressure gradient will remain
strongest over the Eastern Shore Monday as well as the western
shore of the Ches Bay where a NW wind is expected to be 15- 20
mph with gusts to 25-30 mph over the Eastern Shore and 10-15 mph
with gusts ~25 mph along the western shore of the Ches. Bay.
Farther inland, there should be enough pressure gradient
combined with a dry well- mixed airmass to support a NW wind of
10-15 mph with gusts ~20 mph, at least through mid- afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630-650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RMM
FIRE WEATHER...