499
FXUS61 KAKQ 201056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
556 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and cooler conditions prevail today. A low pressure
system will bring chances for rain Friday and Saturday. High
pressure builds back into the area Sunday into early next week
leading to dry conditions. Another low pressure system may
impact the area Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry, but cool and mostly cloudy today.

High pressure is stretched down across the Mid-Atlantic this
morning. GOES Nighttime Microphysics is showing an expansive cloud
deck that extends across a majority of our forecast area, leaving
only portions of the Eastern Shore without extensive cloud cover.
Patchy fog has developed in a few communities along the Eastern
Shore, though it is not widespread or dense enough to issue any
products for it at this time. While the low cloud deck will start to
lift, mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions will linger across the area
through the day as an onshore flow/weak CAD environment is probable
today. Temperatures will struggle to increase today due limited
sunshine and cooler airmass in place, with highs in the 50s likely
across the area. Dry conditions will continue through the day, with
no rain expected. High pressure will start to move offshore tonight,
as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Temperatures will
drop into the lower to mid 40s (upper 40s along the coast) tonight
under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer Friday, with low end rain chances as a warm front lifts
  through the area.

- Chances for rain showers Friday night/Saturday, drying out
  Saturday night.

A warm front will lift through the area Friday, bringing our first
chance of rain. The highest chance for rain during the day will
likely be seen in the piedmont and across the northern counties (40-
50%). There will be a temperature gradient across the forecast area,
with the southern half of the area expected to see highs reach the
lower to mid 60s, while the northern half will see highs in the
upper 50s to near 60F. Friday night and into Saturday, a cold front
will approach the area, bringing another round of higher rain
chances to the area. The highest rain chances remain concentrated
across VA and the Eastern Shore and start to lessen across far
southern VA and NE NC. Not expecting much QPF with this system, with
storm total amounts ranging from ~0.15" to 0.35" per the latest run
of the NBM. Probabilities for > 0.5" of QPF are only around 15 to
20% (highest across northern portions of the area). Rain chances
will start to diminish from NW to SE on Saturday afternoon as the
front makes its way offshore. Despite the rain and lingering cloud
cover, temperatures will still likely reach the 60s to even lower
70s across the south. A drier, cooler airmass will filter in behind
the front on Saturday night. Chilly overnight temperatures are
expected Saturday night, with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid
30s across the northern counties/MD Eastern Shore and the mid 30s to
low 40s across the remaining portions of the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather into early next week.

- Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the
  middle of next week.

High pressure will build across the region on Sunday in the wake of
the front, with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions returning.
No appreciable chances for below freezing temperatures through the
middle of next week at least. Temperatures will gradually moderate
back into the 60s Monday and Tuesday ahead of another possible
disturbance that will potentially approach the region around mid-
week. There are still some inconsistencies between global models in
the timing of this next system, but all guidance is suggesting that
the arrival of this disturbance will be the next time the local area
will possibly see another round of measurable rainfall. &&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Thursday...

IFR CIGs are currently plaguing all terminals expected for SBY,
which is experiencing MVFR CIGs. These lowered CIGs will linger
through near or just after sunrise before starting to lift. While
cloud cover will remain in place across the forecast area through
tomorrow night, VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals by 14z
at this time. Surface winds will remain light and generally variable
through the TAF period.

Outlook: The next chance for light rain arrives Friday into
Saturday with the next system, which could lead to additional
flight restrictions. At this time, Sunday looks dry and VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 555 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect early this morning for NC coastal
  waters, otherwise all headlines have ended.

- Benign later today through friday, SCA conditions possible in
  the wake of another cold front Saturday into Saturday night.

High pressure is starting to settle into the region, allowing
NNE winds to diminish, now mainly 10-15 kt or less. Seas are
3-4 ft, but are still hovering ~5 ft at buoy 44056, so SCAs
have been extended through 10 AM for the NC coastal waters.

Otherwise, winds will continue to drop off later this morning,
and will become light E-NE this afternoon, and then turn to the
SE but remain light through Friday. Waves will average 1-2 ft
with seas 2-3 ft (3-4 ft seas linger across the southern coastal
waters into this afternoon). High pressure translates offshore
on Friday ahead of the next front. The pressure gradient
tightens, with SW winds increasing Fri night (but winds should
remain below SCA thresholds). On Saturday, there are some timing
differences with the cold front dropping south through the
area, and this will lead to uncertainty regarding when the next
cool surge occurs, potentially as early as Saturday morning or
as late as Saturday evening. It does look like there is a good
chance at seeing a period of SCA conditions when the surge
occurs as winds become northerly at 15-20 kt with gusts to ~25
kt, with waves building to 3-4 ft in the lower Bay/mouth of the
Bay and seas building to 4-5 ft (at least across the southern
coastal zones). After that, high pressure returns, bringing
another period with relatively benign conditions Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...AJB/NB
LONG TERM...AJB/NB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...LKB/RHR