366
FXUS61 KALY 160841
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
341 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly and blustery today and tomorrow with lake effect and
upslope snow showers. The highest snowfall amounts resulting in
hazardous travel conditions are expected in the western and
southern Adirondacks as well as the southern Green Mountains.
Then, high pressure takes control for the middle of the week
before temperatures trend milder for the end of the week ahead
of our next disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories go into
  effect today starting at 10 AM and 1PM for the western and
  southern Adirondacks and southern Greens given high confidence
  for lake effect/upslope snow ranging from 6 to 14 inches. The
  combination of moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds can
  lead to reduced visibility and hazardous travel.

- There is a 50 to 90% chance for 24 hour maximum wind gusts
  today through tomorrow to exceed 40mph mainly down the Mohawk
  Valley, Greater Capital District into western MA. If
  confidence in wind gusts exceeding 46mph increases, a wind
  advisory may be needed.

Discussion:

Widespread rain exits to our east early this morning with a few
lingering showers through the pre-dawn hours as a the main cold
front sweeps from west to east through eastern NY and western
New England. Temperatures will continue to warm a few degrees
ahead of the front rising into the mid-30s to low-40s across the
region, including the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens
ending the freezing rain/slippery travel potential. Once cold
front should sweep through by 4-7am this morning, expect a wind
shift to the west-northwest with winds becoming quite gusty as
strong cold air advection begins. Sustained winds range 10 to
20mph with wind gusts peaking between 30 to 45mph. Confidence
remains high for the strongest winds to be focused in the Mohawk
Valley into the Capital District and western MA due to
channeling effects; however, given incoming stratus clouds and
lake effect and upslope rain to snow showers through the
afternoon, the mixing depths could be low enough to limit the
potential for gusts to exceed 46mph (wind advisory criteria).
Probabilistic guidance still shows 50 to 90% chance for gusts to
exceed 40mph but concerns about the effects of clouds/snow
showers limits confidence enough to hold off on a wind advisory.
The strongest winds are expected this afternoon into this
evening once the parent shortwave and its associated trough axis
swings through and the true colder air mass tracks overhead,
steepening lapse rates. Speaking of the incoming colder air
mass, this will result in temperatures staying rather steady
this morning before falling this afternoon. With incoming 850hPa
isotherms ranging -8C to -10C and passing over Lake Ontario
where lake water temperatures are still around +10C, the +18C
to +20C delta-T will be more than sufficient to elicit a lake
effect response by late morning continuing well into the
afternoon and tonight. In fact, the colder air mass, broad
troughing aloft and west to northwest flow extending from the
Great Lakes into the Northeast will also support a multi-lake
connection from the Georgian Bay.

Once the parent shortwave and trough axis tracks through this
afternoon and 500 hPa isotherms drop to -28C to -30C in its
wake, lapse rates will steepen further supporting stronger lake
effect bands/squalls and heavier upslope snow. Given the west-
northwest wind shift behind the trough axis, lake effect bands
look to be directed south of the Mohawk Valley/I-90 corridor and
focus more into the northern/eastern Catskills. High res
guidance including the RGEM and 3km NAM show the multi-lake
connection and high inversion heights supporting an impressive
single lake band this evening extending well inland off Lake
Ontario directed right into the eastern Catskills. Moderate
instability on forecast soundings and strong forcing
intercepting the DGZ should support moderate snowfall rates up
to 0.5"/hr per the HREF but this band is not very long lived and
weakens by Midnight. As winds back further to the northwest
overnight, the fetch off Lake Ontario weakens and lake bands
become more fragmented. 1-3 inches of snow expected in the
northern/eastern Catskills overnight including the sawtooth area
of southern Herkimer County. Should lake bands extend further
east, coatings of snow could even be found in valley areas.

The persistent strong west to northwest winds through tomorrow
will favor a long duration upslope snow event along the western
Adirondacks and the spine of the southern Greens where the
highest totals are expected and where we issued winter storm
warnings/advisories through tomorrow evening. Latest HREF even
shows potential for moderate snowfall rates up to 0.50 to
0.75"/hr at times this P.M through tonight. Gusty winds and
persistent snow will result in reduced visibility and potential
hazardous travel. Motorists should drive cautiously if
traveling. It was a close call whether to issue a winter storm
warning in the southern Greens where we have 48hr snowfall close
to 6-8" near/above 2000ft but held off given the long duration
of the event (albeit most of the snow falls through tonight).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Upslope snow persists into Monday but gradually weakens
through the day.

- Next chance for widespread precipitation looks to hold off
  until Friday into Saturday. Low confidence for brief wintry
  mix at the onset before confidence increases for mainly plain
  rain for most of the region.

Discussion:

Our clipper deepens to ~975hPa by Monday and stalls in the
Canadian Maritimes with high pressure from the MS/TN valley
building northeastward, maintaining the cold air advection and
tight sfc pressure gradient/gusty winds. However, the northwest
wind shift should weaken lake effect snow showers through the
day as we lose the multi-lake connection. Upslope snow showers
in the western Adirondacks and southerns Greens continues into
the morning hours but gradually weakens through the afternoon.
While moderate to 30-60% probabilities for gusts greater than
30mph continue through the morning, probabilities weaken through
the afternoon. With the heart of the chilly air mass overhead,
high temperatures will likely fall below normal and there is at
least a 60% chance that most fail to exceed 40 degrees. Combined
with the gusty winds, it will feel even chiller. Upslope snow
should finally weakens initially in the southern Greens Monday
P.M before ending in the western Adirondacks as inversion
heights drop.

Tuesday through Thursday should feature mainly dry conditions as
high pressure builds overnight but temperatures remain near to
slightly below normal. Temperatures trends milder for Friday as
our next disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. There
remains discrepancies on the overall track of the incoming sfc
low but there is low to moderate confidence in widespread
precipitation overspreading the region Friday into Saturday.
Depending on the timing and thermal profiles, the initial onset
of precipitation could feature brief wintry mix before
transitioning to plain rain but not enough confidence to include
wintry mix in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions prevail early this
morning as widespread rainfall continues across much of the region.
This stratiform axis of rain will begin to shift out of our area to
the east over the next couple of hours as a warm front tracks
through Eastern New York and western New England, but elevated low-
level moisture will maintain less than ideal flying conditions with
lowered ceiling heights throughout the remainder of the overnight
period for most. As the cold front associated with the ongoing
system begins its swift passage through the region, ceilings will
begin to lift, becoming VFR by about mid morning or early
afternoon. Rising ceilings will be met with winds becoming gusty
out of the northwest with sustained speeds ranging from about 15 to
20 kt and gusts reaching 20 to 35 kt. Lake effect and upslopes snow
showers will develop behind the departing system this afternoon,
potentially forcing the return to MVFR and IFR conditions primarily
at KALB and KPSF but a brief period of snow showers cannot be ruled
out at KGFL this afternoon. Finally, low-level wind shear is
anticipated to impact the KALB terminal between about 10-14z this
morning courtesy of a passing low-level jet.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ032.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ033.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Monday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...37