402
FXUS61 KALY 091140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
640 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and a frontal boundary will bring
periods of rain and a light wintry mix this morning over the Lake
George Region and the southern Adirondacks.  A developing coastal
low pressure system near southeast New England Monday morning will
bring additional showers with some snow showers over the higher
terrain north and west of the Capital Region.  Veterans Day will be
blustery and cold with lake effect snow showers and flurries.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory for southern Adirondacks and portions
  of the Lake George Region until noon today for a light wintry
  mix including some freezing rain.

- High confidence for below normal temps Monday and Veterans
  Day, with lake effect snow across the western
  Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley late Mon night thru Tue.

Discussion:

As of 154 AM EST...A stationary front remains near the NY-PA
border early this morning with a low pressure system moving out
of the Ohio Valley towards PA and w-cntral NY. High pressure
near southern Quebec continues to funnel south/southeast into
upstate NY some shallow cold air. Over running pcpn and
isentropic lift continues to increase over w-central NY into
eastern NY with light rainfall developing this hour. Clouds
continue to thicken and lower with temps cooling off into the
lower to mid 30s over the southern Dacks and the Lake George
Region. The southwest low-level jet will continue to increase
advecting into the region low-level moisture for the coverage of
rainfall to increase towards 12Z/Sun or daybreak. Due to wet
bulb cooling, expect pcpn to begin as snow over the
south/southwest Dacks, the Lake George Region and possibly the
southern Greens. A rapid transition to some sleet and some
freezing rain looks to occur based on some of the CAMs and the
HREFs. The freezing rain does not look like it will last long.
We kept the current advisory up. We may have to issue an SPS for
a brief period of freezing rain for portions of northwest
Saratoga Co, and the southern Greens before temps rise above
freezing. Snow and sleet accums will be an inch or less with a
light glaze or less than a tenth of an inch of ice in the
Advisory area.

The warm front will break through portions of the Mohawk Valley
and the Greater Capital Region and western MA/southern VT, as
low pressure approaches w-cntral PA and central NY. Max temps
will get into the upper 40s to mid and spotty upper 50s in the
valleys with some cooler readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s
over the Adirondack Park, Lake George Region and the southern
Greens. A brief respite in the showers will occur with the dry
slot before a narrow cold frontal rain band ahead of the low
pressure approaches from the west/southwest 22Z/Sun to 04Z/Mon.
Not much instability is shown on the CAMs, such as the 3-km
HRRR and NAMnest but plenty of deep shear. Some gusty winds
with a rumble of thunder may occur early this evening. The
primary low moves over northern NY near Lake Champlain around
midnight, as a secondary low begins to form south of Long
Island. Colder air begins to drain back into the southwest
Adirondacks early Monday morning for a light wintry mix to
snow. Temps will be tumbling in the wake of the cold front into
the mid/upper 20s to mid 30s over the southern Dacks/western
Mohawk Valley/Lake George-Glens Falls area and upper 30s to
lower/mid 40s south and east.

The secondary low moves quickly towards southeast New England, as
periods of rain begin to develop again from the Hudson River
Valley eastward. Enough cold air drains into the system for a
mixture of rain and snow showers west of the Hudson River Valley.
The steadiest pcpn looks to align from the I-87 corridor
eastward with the H500 upper low moving over the lower Great
Lakes Region/western NY and PA. The colder air looks to spread
eastward over the forecast area into the mid to late afternoon
with falling temps and for some snow showers over the western
New England higher terrain possibly mixed with sleet. Snow
accums during the day may be up to an inch over the western
Dacks. Low pressure moves toward northeast ME and New Brunswick
Mon night with cold and brisk conditions. Some lake effect and
west/northwest upslope snow showers develop overnight. Lows fall
back into the 20s with some teens over the higher terrain.

Veterans Day look like a winter day with blustery and cold
conditions with lake effect snow showers continuing off Lake
Ontario. H850 temps will be a few standard deviations below
normal based on the NAEFS/GEFS. West to northwest winds will be
10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. We used the 75th
percentile of the NBM winds and the strong sfc pressure gradient
supported it. Snow accumulations may range from 1-3" for the
western Dacks. Highs will be 10-15 degrees below normal. We
shaded to the colder MAV/MET values from the NBM. Highs will be
in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The low max record for Albany is
31F set back in 1987. It does not look that cold, but the high
may only get to 37F at Albany. Expect mid 20s to lower/mid 30s
over the high terrain. Wind chills or "Feels-like" temps will be
in the teens and 20s with some single digits over the mtns. The
low to mid level flow backs Tue night ahead of the next short-
wave approaching from the Great Lakes Region. Some snow showers
and flurries will persist with some accums of an inch or two
over the west/southwest Dacks and the southern Greens. Some
coatings to a few tenths may occur in the lower elevations. Lows
will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of
the week along with some mixed rain and snow showers.

We will remain under an upper level trough pattern through the
remainder of the week with multiple additional shortwaves passing
through the area. Following a cold Veteran`s Day, the air mass will
begin to moderate by Wednesday with daytime temperatures in the 30s
and 40s each day through the end of the week, still about 5-10
degrees below normal. As westerly flow continues over the Great
Lakes, lake effect rain and snow showers will continue Wednesday
into Friday with the greatest coverage across the Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley. Snow showers will be primarily favored across the
higher elevations. The trough begins to depart by Saturday with high
pressure building into the area with a drier start to the weekend.
High temperatures on Saturday will continue to run below normal with
values in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z/Mon...Complex and low confidence TAF forecast
through the period. An area of low pressure will move across the
region today through tonight with periods of rain showers and
variable cigs. Timing of rain showers looks to be from
12-17z/Sun then again from 22z/Sun onward to 12z/Mon. Thus far,
cigs have fluctuated from VFR to IFR and this variability trend
will likely continue through tonight. TEMPO groups have been
included to address any variability over the next 6 hours but
adjustments to the TAFs will likely be needed based on trends.
Winds will be less than 10 kt through the TAF period and could
be in variable directions, though mainly from the northerly to
easterly direction. A period of LLWS could occur at KPSF Sunday
afternoon into the early evening as winds at 2000 feet increase
to 35 kt out of the southeast with surface winds only around 5
kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Veterans Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ032-033-
     042-043-082.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...33