785
FXUS64 KAMA 041052
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
552 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

 -Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through the weekend,
  with locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible.

 -Heat Advisory for Friday afternoon for Palo Duro Canyon where
  high temperatures up to 105 degrees are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Still seeing a few scattered thunderstorms this Thursday evening for
portions of the southeast Texas Panhandle due to a weak perturbation
in the H500 W/SW flow. Reports of rainfall totals in some locations
topping out around three quarters of an inch from slow moving and
training storms. Latest 00Z AMA RAOB data sampled 1.33" for our PWAT
values so that puts us in the 75-99th percentile for PWAT climo for
our area, so when storms do form, they are capable of heavy rainfall
rates. After a break in the activity as storms decrease in intensity
and coverage overnight tonight, diurnally driven lift , and with
W/SW flow around western periphery of main H500 high advecting
perturbations, we should see more widespread 20-40 POPs for
thunderstorm development. We also included the eastern Panhandles
in a 15-30 POPs, based off where old outflow boundaries decayed
the previous night, which can act as a local area of lift for
storms by Friday afternoon. Any robust storms will have the
potential of strong downburst winds and/or heavy rainfall rates
which could produced localized flooding. High temperatures on
Friday will range from the upper 90s to a few locations in the
100-105 degree range, where PDC has a Heat Advisory for 105 degree
potential by Friday afternoon. Similar setup to start the weekend
on Saturday, with highest rain chances for our area closest to
the NM stateline where the best moisture transport axis will set
up. Highs on Saturday could be a degree or two cooler compared to
Friday with highs ranging from 95-103.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Latest global model data continue to show a potential range of the
main H500 high to meander between the central Plains and mid
Mississippi River valley through the remainder of the forecast
period. Any daily rain chances, if any, would favor the far
western Panhandles, while the remainder of the Panhandles remain
mostly dry. Above average temperatures expected to continue
through the remainder of early September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are favored this afternoon,
mostly across the Texas Panhandle. The relatively higher
confidence in impacts to a terminal exists in Amarillo, but still
only warrants a PROB30 group right now. Thunderstorms will produce
strong downdrafts. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely through
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52