293
FXUS64 KAMA 171122
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Low chances for isolated storms return to the northwest
  Panhandles and I-40 corridor this afternoon and evening.
  Damaging wind gusts and localized flooding from heavy rainfall
  will be the primary threats.

- High pressure is expected to build back over the region this
  week resulting in another round of 100+ degrees for the
  Panhandles starting on Tuesday. Heat advisories may be need for
  portions of the area some days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Radar shows showers storms draped across the northern Panhandles
as of 06z, which will linger through the early morning hours
before tapering off. Several sites across the area have measured
over 1 inch of rain already, and localized flooding from heavy
rainfall will remain a potential hazard until activity fully
dissipates.

This activity may leave a remnant outflow boundary across the
southern and eastern Panhandles this afternoon-evening, which
several CAMs show becoming a focal point for isolated storm
development along the I-40 corridor. High pressure is still degraded
enough to our southeast to provide upper level support for storms in
this area, but looking at 700mb theta-e forecasts, the window for
storm development may be short-lived. Deep layer moisture should be
sufficient at first, but drier air from the south will eventually be
advected northward, leaving the northwest Panhandles as the more
favorable area for storm potential later this evening. Regardless of
where storms develop, activity will be very hit or miss, meaning
only 15-25% chances for any single location to get rain. Forecast
sounding thermodynamic profiles don`t look as promising for severe
storm potential today, but severe downburst wind gusts and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storm just like recent days.

Another afternoon of heat "relief" is forecast today, with highs
mostly in the 90s. A few spots will likely reach triple digits in
the southeast TX Panhandle, but overall this is still relatively
mild compared to last week. Our warming trend resumes Tuesday as
the ridge of high pressure builds to the west, placing highs of 95
to 105 Panhandles wide. Breezy southwest winds return as well,
sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Despite the Panhandle thermostat getting turned up through most of
the week, global modals have been hinting that Wed - Thu could have
potential for more rain chances and "cooler" temperatures. The
culprit for such potential is a trailing trough on the southeast
flank of a large upper level low over the Hudson Bay of Canada.
This trough will dive southeast across the Plains late Wednesday
into Thursday, placing northwest flow atop the region. A weak
frontal passage will make its way over the area as well, resulting
in better moisture content and temperatures dropping a few
degrees by Thursday (highs mostly in the 90s). Model agreement has
improved regarding this potential, which places 20-40% storm
chances across the north and western combined Panhandles primarily
Wed evening and overnight. CAPE and shear profiles may be
sufficient for a low-end severe threat as well, but we will have
to wait and see how the thermodynamic environment pans out.

Unfortunately, high pressure is progged to translate from the Four
Corners region back to the Southern Great Plains late week.
Widespread triple digit heat promptly returns to end the week
through the weekend, and dry air will filter back to the region in
tandem. Rain chances will be slim to none for several days, as it
appears high pressure is here to stay.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the 12z TAF period,
with light and variable winds this morning gradually settling out
of the south at 10-15 kts today-tonight. Low chances for isolated
storms will exist again this afternoon and evening, but confidence
remains quite low for impacts at any one terminal.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38