978
FXUS64 KAMA 031834
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- An approaching system is expected to bring light snow to most
  of the Panhandles tonight into Thursday afternoon.

- Localized bands of moderate to heavy snowfall are expected to
  occur, which could lead to small areas receiving an extra 2 to 4
  inches of accumulation. This could lead to impacts for the
  morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Meteorological winter has only just arrived to the Panhandles, and
already we are seeing persistently increasing odds for snow to fall
across much of the Panhandles this evening into Thursday morning.
Colder temperatures are settling back in over the region today
behind a cold front, helping keep highs mostly in the 40s. As we
head into the evening and overnight hours, models show an upper
level system progressing towards the Plains, becoming more favorably
oriented upon its arrival. These trends have cumulatively increased
confidence that snow will fall tonight into tomorrow morning,
starting with the northwest Panhandles this evening,
spreading/shifting south and east through the morning hours
Thursday. Precipitation should exit the area and dissipate through
tomorrow afternoon, leaving cooler temperatures and drier air in its
wake.

Satellite and mesoanalysis observations show a positively tilted
500mb trough approaching the Four Corners region this morning, with
a pronounced core of moisture in tow. CAMs as well as regional and
global models have begun showing a larger swath of light snow
developing over the Panhandles tonight, likely due to better large
scale lift associated with the upper level system`s track/evolution.
Forecast soundings show quite favorable temperature profiles for
snow, especially overnight-early morning, with sub-freezing
temperatures throughout the column and decent saturation in the
Dendritic Growth Zone. To reiterate, this type of system generally
favors the aforementioned lighter snowfall as compared to widespread
heavy snow. However, a few narrow corridors of moderate to heavy
snow appear likely, due in part to areas of enhanced 700mb
frontogenesis ahead of the trough. Wherever these bands set up, snow
rates will be enhanced, leading to potential for some totals in the
2-4" range. CAMs have shifted the locations of these bands from run
to run, but have insisted that they will exist. Ensemble
probabilities highlight the northwest combined Panhandles as being
most favored to receive such a feature (30-60% chance for >2"), but
the southwest to central TX Panhandle also have opportunities for
heavier banding as well (20-40% chance for >2"). The gradient of
snow totals may be quite sharp within these bands, potentially going
from less than an inch to several inches over a relatively short
distance. The worst case scenario bulls eyes as of latest data,
could be as high as the 4-6" range on a very localized/outlier basis
(<10% chance).

Regardless, the chances to see any snowfall to even a dusting of
accumulation are medium to high for a majority of the forecast area
(40-80% POPs). Ground temperatures are already cold enough, and
especially with most snow falling after dark, the expectation is
that any snow that falls should accumulate rather than melt. For
this reason, we could easily see impacts to the morning commute, so
please allow yourself extra time in the morning and take it easy on
the roadways.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Long range models show a large closed low settling over the
Canadian Hudson Bay this weekend into next week, maintaining
northwest flow aloft atop the High Plains. Dry air will dominate
this time frame, leading to no mentionable opportunities for
precipitation for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures
will be on a warming trend as well, increasing back to the 50s and
60s by mid next week, with lows around or below freezing every
night.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low clouds and snow are expected to arrive at all sites this
evening into Thursday morning, creating MVFR to LIFR conditions.
Light snow is most likely to fall intermittently between 00-12z,
with chances for narrow bands to create heavier snow and reduced
visibility at times. The exact location and timing of this
potential is still up in the air and will continue to be adjusted
in future forecasts. Snow is expected to gradually taper off by
the end of the 18z period. Winds will be out of the east -
northeast before becoming more light and variable in the morning
hours.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST
     Thursday for TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016-017-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST
     Thursday for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38