131
FXUS61 KBGM 021746
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1246 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A general 3 to 7 inches of snow is expected across most of the
area today with the steadiest snow tapering off during the early
to mid afternoon. Lingering light lake effect snow showers and
flurries are expected tonight, followed by dry conditions
Wednesday. A sharp cold front will bring snow showers on
Thursday, with much colder temperatures in the forecast for
Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
835 AM Update

On going winter weather event this morning remains well on
track. Only minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF and snow based on
the latest radar and observational trends....along with the
latest HRRR model guidance. Steadiest snow is occurring now and
for next 4-6 hours over the area. Latest predicted end time for
the steady snow is noon-1PM over the central southern tier, 3-4
PM along the I-81 corridor and 4-6 pm over our eastern forecast
zones in the Catskills and eastern Poconos. Snowfall amounts
still on track for 3-7 inches across the forecast area, with 5-9
inches in Sullivan county. Snowfall rates are coming in as
expected, around or just over 1"/hr this morning. Temperatures
are steady to slowly rising in the mid to upper 20s. High
temperatures are forecast to reach into the 30s later this
afternoon. Light south-southeast winds turn Northwesterly this
afternoon behind the departing low and increase up to 7-15 mph.

Previous Discussion Below

**Winter Weather Advisory in effect for much of the forecast area
late tonight through early Tuesday evening. Winter Storm Warning for
Sullivan County**


An elongated low pressure from the Deep South and Ohio Valley
will send moisture into the region that will be lifted into a
fairly widespread area of snow as the low moves northeast. This
snow looks to move this morning through most of the afternoon
hours. QPF amounts have come down slightly given some dry air at
the surface. Still the general expectation of a quick hitting
3-6 inches, locally 8 for Sullivan NY remains. 700mb FGEN
forcing suggests the highest rates to be around an inch per hour
for the course of the event. Also the potential for two slightly
higher local maximums near the NY/PA line and in the
Poconos/Sullivan NY is still present. With temperatures in the
20`s to low 30`s, ratios look to be around the typical 10:1
values.

Mesoscale modeling is picking up on some additional light snow
shower and flurry development over the Finger Lakes and
portions of CNY later this afternoon and evening. Incorporated
these models for POP given the NBM`s typical struggles in this
area. Any additional accumulation would be minor. With clouds
hanging around, temperatures should only fall to around 20 for
most of the region.

High pressure builds into the region for a short stay Wednesday.
Clouds will be slow to erode but the potential for some peaks of
sun is present in the afternoon with temperatures nudging into
the 30`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures won`t fall much Wednesday night with warm air
advection on the backside of the high. However, a sharp arctic
cold front looks to push through Thursday. Temperatures may end
up falling slightly Thursday into the 20`s.

A favorable setup for some snow showers and snow squalls is
present as well. Momentum transfer off of sounding data shows
the potential for some 20-30 mph gusts coupled with slight
amounts of CAPE around 30 J/KG. The falling temperatures also
brings a flash freeze potential unlike earlier events this
season. Quick accumulations up to an inch could occur with this
snowfall. more of the fluffy variety (higher ratios).

The window looks to be short for any lake effect in the
traditional locations off of Lake Ontario Thursday evening with
high pressure building into the region. Still some additional
fluffy accumulation could occur. For the rest of us it`s a race
to see if we can clear things out or not in terms of low
temperatures. If we do clear out lows should fall into the
single digits due to snow cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold but drier Friday is currently anticipated under high
pressure. Ensemble guidance has come into better agreement
sliding a system to our south Friday night. A broad northwest
flow with weak clipper systems looks to take hold this weekend
with additional chances for snow showers. This looks to be
followed by another shot of arctic air Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Snow is beginning  to taper off slightly earlier than expected
this afternoon. As a result we have already started to see
improvements in visibilities at ELM/ITH. Improvements will
continue from west to east as the system moves out of the
region. Lingering IFR or worse conditions expected at
RME/SYR/BGM/AVP early in this period before the snow ends.
Otherwise MVFR ceilings and visibilities will return for
through the remainder of the period.

There is a low chance of spotty lake effect snow showers or
flurries behind the system, but no IFR restrictions are
expected. Winds will be less than 10 knots through the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow
showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow
showers, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Sunday...Restrictions possible as a frontal system approaches
the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ039-
     040-044-048-072.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ038-043-047.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-
     036-037-045-046-056-057.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES