593
FXUS61 KBGM 221843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
143 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak clipper system will bring a chance for rain and wet snow
showers at times Sunday into Monday. High pressure builds
overhead on Monday with sunny and mild conditions. The next
low pressure system arrives later on Tuesday into Wednesday
bringing periods of rain, but warm temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Brief ridging overhead this afternoon and tonight. Northwest
flow will keep broken strato cu over the area. A clipper system
is trending a bit stronger and further south for tomorrow. Scattered
snow and rain showers in the morning will push in from the west,
with PoPs increasing through the day. T850 warms to around
-2 or -3C during the day, and surface temperatures should rise
 into the 40s, making rain the most likely p-type during the
 day. However, before sunrise until about mid morning there is a
 chance for light snow accumulation in central NY, mostly on
 grassy surfaces before a change to rain occurs. Precipitation
 amounts are forecast to be light; less than a tenth of an inch
 on Sunday.

Temperatures will get close to freezing again Sunday night
across the Tug Hill Plateau. Some lake effect snow showers will
be possible overnight and more light accumulations will be
possible in the higher terrain areas before sunrise on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Lingering showers Monday morning will give way to high pressure.
This will bring decreasing clouds and seasonable temperatures.
Monday night, there will be increasing mid and upper level
clouds ahead of the next weather system. Tuesday morning should
stay dry, before rain moves in later in the day. Warm front
passes Tuesday night with periods of rain/showers, but very
mild overnight low temperatures are expected in the upper 30s
to mid-40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

This period starts off with above average, warm temperatures on
Wednesday, as a deep southwesterly flow advects warm air into
the forecast area. It will still be mainly cloudy with chances
for showers as the cold front approaches from the west later in
the day or overnight. Cold front pushes through Wednesday night
into Thanksgiving morning. T850mb potentially drops to -8/-9C
through the day. Expect mostly cloudy and breezy conditions on
Thanksgiving Day, with a chance for lake effect snow. The cold
air advection (CAA) will also bring strong westerly wind gusts
to around 25 to 30 mph and dropping temperatures through the
day, with highs likely occurring during the morning hours.
CAA continues to strengthen over the area Friday into Saturday
with T850 hovering between about -10C to -12C. Lake effect snow
showers will be likely over the area. Exact details such as
lake effect orientation, amounts and extent remain uncertain
this far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 18Z TAF
period. Gusty winds for some terminals will decrease in the late
afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Sunday...Scattered rain/snow showers and associated
restrictions possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday into Thursday...Chance for rain showers and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL