333
FXUS61 KBGM 151924
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold frontal boundary will move through the region tonight
bringing a round of rain showers. Colder air will move into the
region Sunday and Monday with some lake effect snow showers.
Weak low pressure slides to our south Tuesday night with high
pressure building in for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure will track through northern New England tonight.
Enough lift and moisture will lead to the development of fairly
widespread showers by evening. A slight amount of elevated
instability is showing up on modeled soundings as well which is
already resulting in a thunderstorm or two across the Finger
Lakes. The potential for thunder should extend further east
early this evening. Temperatures should stay steady through most
of the night.

The cold front pushes through Sunday morning. Cold air advection
will start up with west-northwest flow off of Lake Ontario. This
should promote the development of rain and snow showers in the
afternoon that change to snow showers. Model soundings once
again have an inverted V look showing the potential for some
strong 30-40 mph wind gusts during the afternoon hours as well.
A heavier snow shower with the wind could reduce visibility
quite a bit, so a snow squall or two can`t be ruled out after
sunset. Impacts of any snow accumulations should hold off for
the most part till the evening hours when some slick spots
could form.

Given the slight amount of instability showing up it may be
tough for the snow showers to organize into bands off of Lake
Ontario. That and some changes with wind direction will lead to
some variability with the locations of the lake effect snow
keeping maximum totals fairly light at any one location.
Temperatures should fall into the 20`s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Broken lake effect snow showers/ bands should continue through
Monday night. Temperatures warming to near and above freezing
may reduce snow ratios closer to 10:1 compared to the typical
15:1 with lake effect. Additional light accumulations should
occur in spots that see more persistent snow showers. Total
snow accumulations may creep into the 4-6 range for a few spots
in Madison, Onondaga and Cayuga county. However, these totals
will be over a 36 hour plus window. With that in mind, did not
issue a headline for snow at this time. Temperatures generally
in the 20`s and 30`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Lake effect snow showers should decrease early Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the region. A fairly notable northward
trend has occurred with a weak area of low pressure passing to
our south Tuesday night. A fair cluster of ensemble and
operational models now bring measurable precipitation into NE
PA Tuesday night. With temperatures falling below freezing some
light snow accumulation could occur if the northward trend
continues. Daytime temperatures though should warm well into the
30`s and 40`s through Thursday. High pressure should lead to a
fairly quiet Wednesday and Thursday.

Warm air advection behind the high pressure should result in a
gradual warning trend late this week. NBM guidance is likely to
fast bringing in showers Thursday, so lowered pops and raised
temperatures based off of the southerly flow pattern. Rainfall
from the next system should move in Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While conditions are VFR at the start of the TAF period,
ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR to Fuel Alternate as the
rest of the afternoon progresses as rain showers move into the
area. There is also a low chance for thunder, but confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. MVFR to
Fuel Alternate restrictions are expected to continue through
most of the remainder of the TAF period (at least through 18Z
Sunday), although it is possible that KAVP and KELM return to
VFR by mid-morning Sunday. There is chance for some IFR ceiling
restrictions this evening as well, mainly at KBGM, KSYR, and
KRME.

Southerly winds at 10-15 kts are expected this afternoon before
winds start gusting up to 20kts overnight tonight and then up to
30kts by Sunday afternoon. LLWS is also expected for a brief
window this evening.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon...Rain and snow showers, transitioning to all snow
showers. Restrictions expected in any steadier snow showers.

Monday...Scattered rain/snow showers possible along with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Lingering lake effect rain/snow showers with
restrictions still possible; especially CNY terminals.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG