716
FXUS61 KBGM 161055
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through the remainder
of the week. A cold frontal boundary with our next chance of
showers moves in for Sunday and Monday followed by another cold
frontal boundary by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Higher pressure will continue to build into the region today. Model
inverted-V soundings show do show the potential for some higher
afternoon wind gusts around 20 mph. Highs should stay in the 50`s
for most of the region. Model soundings suggest quite a bit of
mixing as well which could lower RH values into the 30-40% range
during the afternoon hours. So, the possibility of favorable
conditions for fire spread is present. Tonight still looks to be the
coldest as winds become light allowing most places to fall to around
30. As a result, the potential for a more widespread frost and
possible freeze increases for the Finger Lakes and Wyoming
valley. Confidence is slightly higher in the Wyoming valley
where a frost advisory has been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to build into the region. With sunshine,
temperatures should recover well into the 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slow warming trend should occur for Friday night through
Sunday as winds switch to southwest on the backside of a high
pressure system. Still some timing differences with ensemble
guidance on the next cold front and shower chance in the Sunday
and Monday timeframe. A quick break looks to occur around the
Tuesday timeframe with the next cold front and shower chance
Wednesday and Thursday next week. Overall, a cool and showery
pattern with temperatures in the 40`s and 50`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with high
pressure in control. Some patchy valley fog is possible over the
next couple of hours, but with a light wind still in place and
10 to 20 knots of wind just above the surface, its formation at
ELM is not expected.

Breezy north-northwest winds are expected to develop around
14-15Z and continue through the afternoon with frequent gusts of
15 to 20 knots, along with occasional gusts to around 25 knots,
before diminishing this evening.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog each
morning.

Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible with a front moving
through, especially later in the day Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ044-047.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK