930
FXUS61 KBGM 281851
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers, some heavy at times will continue
into tonight across portions of Central NY. Scattered snow
showers and flurries will be around for the rest of the forecast
area. A brief period of dry weather returns Saturday afternoon
with partly cloudy skies and seasonably cold temperatures. The
next low pressure system will bring a period of light snow,
mixing with rain on Sunday to the region. Drying out under
partly sunny skies for Monday, before another, potentially
larger storm system approaches Tuesday with the more widespread
snow possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The main concern in this period will be the continuation of heavy
lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario and to some extent Lake Erie.
Lake effect snow warnings remain in effect for Onondaga, Madison and
Oneida counties until Saturday morning. Snowfall totals have been
increase slightly with this update; now looking for storm totals of
4-9 inches, locally 14" in Oneida county....8-18 inches for most of
Madison county. Across southern Onondaga county expect 3-6 inches
south of US-20, 6-16 inches between US-20 and I-90, with locally up
to around 20 inches of snow near or north of I-90 in the county.

Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the counties just
south of the warning zones; including S. Cayuga, Cortland, Chenango
and Otsego counties. An advisory is also in effect until 1 AM EST
for Steuben county, with the long inland extent snow off of Lake
Eries here. Additional snowfall of generally 1-4 inches is expected
in these advisory counties; expect locally higher in the far
northern portion of these counties, especially NW Otsego county
where 4-8 inches additional is expected near Richfield Springs,
Cherry Valley and Leonardsville.

The heaviest snow is ongoing and expected to continue through this
evening and into the overnight. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour, or locally higher (3"/hr) are expected in the core of the lake
effect snow band this evening. The most likely locations to see
these rates and the highest totals will be in and around Syracuse,
Baldwinsville, Liverpool, Clay, Chittenango, Canastota, Verona,
Vernon and Waterville. Temperatures will be holding in the lower to
mid-30s through the afternoon hours, then dropping into the 20s this
evening and overnight. The snow will become drier and more powdery
this evening and tonight.

Outside of the main lake effect areas there will still be plenty of
scattered snow showers and perhaps even isolated snow squalls this
afternoon and evening. There is drier air in place for the Wyoming
Valley and surrounding locations, so not expecting too much snow
shower activity that far south.

The snow will begin to gradually taper off heading into Saturday
morning, and finally be down to lingering flurries in the afternoon
across  northern portions of the CWA. Further south, across the Twin
Tiers and NE PA, we should see partly sunny conditions by Saturday
afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 30s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

The next low pressure system will be tracking across the Central
Great lakes heading into Saturday night. Southerly winds and warm
air advection develop over our area. Some light snow should breakout,
especially for western and northern portions of the forecast area,
after midnight, where we now have likely to low end categorical PoPs
for the snow. QPF amounts less than a tenth of an inch are expected
by daybreak Sunday. Overnight lows will be quite cold in the low to
mid-20s for most of the area. This should allow for efficient snow
accumulations with dustings to 1 inch or so expected from Towanda--
Binghamton--Cooperstown north and west.

Light snow continues for most of the are Sunday morning, but begins
to mix with and change to rain in the valleys as the southerly warm
air advection pattern continues. The low will track well off to the
north and west of our area, across southern Ontario. Light
additional snow accumulations are expected Sunday morning, before
the changeover to mainly light rain showers occurs in the afternoon.
Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid-30s to lower 40s in
the afternoon. The southerly flow may upslope into the southern Tug
Hill plateau area, bringing 2-4 inches of snow to northern Oneida
county...otherwise totals for the rest of the area will be under 2
inches in CNY and less than a 1/2 inch in NE PA.

Colder NW flow takes hold for Sunday night into early Monday morning,
with lake effect snow showers likely. At this time, the short window
of lake effect looks to keep accumulations on the minor/low side.
Colder with lows in the upper 10s to 20s over the forecast area.

High pressure settles overhead Monday afternoon and evening,
bringing at least partly sunny skies, light winds but still cold
temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s for highs. Clouds increase
quickly Monday evening, with a chance for snow arriving after
midnight, and especially toward daybreak Tuesday as the next storm
system approaches. It will be very cold with lows in the 10s to
lower 20s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Uncertainty remains in the forecast for Tuesday, in regards to
timing, low pressure track and even thermal profiles. The 12z GFS
remains much further NW and therefore milder with the storm system.
Meanwhile the 12z CMC and ECMWF show a further east/southeast low
track....are little slower to get precip/snow into the area and have
lower QPF amounts. These two deterministic models would keep precip
type as all snow for our CWA, including NE PA/Wyoming Valley.
Overall, most of the guidance seems to be shifting toward a
stronger, more amplified and further NW solution; including the
latest 12z ECMWF AIFS and 12z AI-GFS guidance. The 12z GEFS are
showing 60-75% chance for more than 3 inches of snow in the 1 AM
Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday 24 hour period over the southeastern half
of the CWA, including Binghamton, Oneonta, Scranton and Wilkes-bare.
The 12z CMC ensembles are further southeast, with 40-50%
probabilities for more than 3 inches of snow in that same
timeframe....mainly across NE PA and the southern Catskills. Looking
at all of the available ensemble data, the 13z NBM is showing 40-60%
chances for more than 3 inches of snow over most of the forecast
area in this timeframe. Overall, the trend is definitely up for a
widespread, accumulating snowfall for Central NY and Northeast PA.
The details such as amounts, and exact locations most impacted
remain somewhat uncertain still. Model guidance should start to
converge on a solution, increasing our confidence over the next day
or two. For now, will mention the increasing probabilities for
accumulating, impactful snow in the HWO.

The storm system will depart the area by Tuesday night or early
Wednesday morning. Behind this system more cold air builds into the
area with weak clipper systems and intermittent lake effect snow
showers through the end of the upcoming workweek. Temperatures could
be quite cold by the end of the week, with overnight lows
potentially down into the single digits and teens Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue to impact CNY terminals into the
evening hours. The heaviest snow is currently near SYR and RME.
The snow band will wobble around the area into the evening
hours, with conditions bouncing from MVFR to IFR to LIFR and
back. ELM/BGM will also continue to see snow showers off Lake
Erie this afternoon that will produce periods of IFR
restrictions. By the evening, showers are forecast to lighten
up and thus MVFR restrictions are expected into the evening,
with VFR overnight. ITH should see the least impact from the
snow as the bands are focused north and south of the terminal. A
few periods of MVFR is expected this afternoon. IFR could
briefly occur of a heavier snow shower moves overhead, but
confidence in this happening was too low to include in the TAF.
AVP will be VFR through the TAF period.

Winds will be gusty throughout this TAF period. The highest
gusts of around 30-35 kts are expected through the evening. LLWS
is forecast at BGM and ELM tonight, with 45kts of shear possible
up to FL020 from 00z  to 06z.


Outlook...

Saturday...Some lingering restrictions possible in lake effect
clouds and flurries, otherwise gradual improvement.

Sunday and Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in
scattered rain and snow showers.

Tuesday...Snow showers possible and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-
     018-036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ017-
     044>046.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC