691
FXUS61 KBGM 021832
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
132 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure system remains in place into Monday morning.
A weak front will pass through Monday afternoon with increasing
winds into Monday night. Most of the area will remain dry with
this frontal passage but winds remain gusty through Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns mid week into late week with better
chances of precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds in early this morning with much
calmer winds. Clouds will scatter out later in the morning as
dry air works its way to the surface with day time heating. With
a trough to the west, 850 mb winds strengthen out of the south
with some warming so once the sun is out, temperatures will warm
into the 50s. Warm air advection increases tonight as several
500 mb shortwaves pass through with a strong lobe of vorticity
well to the south and another weaker lobe dropping into the
Great Lakes. The southern love of vorticity will block most
moisture from advecting northward so conditions look dry through
Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 and west of Rome
NY may see a few rain showers late as Lake Ontario may provide
just enough low level moisture to get a few rain showers to
develop along a cold front moving in. A tightening pressure
gradient with the approach of the northern shortwave will see
winds increase through the day Monday. With 850 winds rising to
40 to 50 knots and cold air advection Monday afternoon helps to
steepen the low level lapse rates, gusts across the region could
approach 40 mph again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The week starts off breezy as a shortwave passes through the
Northeast. 850 mb winds remain 40 to 50 knots all of Monday
night and into the first half of Tuesday. Winds were increased
for overnight and through Tuesday with cold air advection
helping to keep the low level lapse rates steep through the
night then day time heating Tuesday helps with deeper mixing
later in the day. Chances of precipitation will remain
constrained to near and just downwind the Great Lakes with the
limited moisture in place.

Zonal flow takes over Tuesday night through Wednesday with warm
air advection developing. Rain chances return Wednesday as the
warm air advection leads to frontogenesis and a surface low
developing in the Great Lakes region. High pressure moving off
the Mid Atlantic coast helps open up the Gulf a bit with some
better moisture advection late Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term will have mostly zonal flow though there will be
plenty of shortwaves in the flow that move through mid to late
week. Given that all these shortwaves are clipper systems, their
timing is going to be tough to pin down so chances of rain
showers were kept through much of the long term. High pressure
remains off of the SE US coast so there will be available
moisture for any passing system to work with. While snow looks
unlikely right now, ensembles are starting to favor greater odds
of cold air later in the week. Chances are greater than 50% of
-5C 850 mb temperatures Thursday so freezing levels may get low
enough for any lake effect to start to have a change over to
snow at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Clouds will be increasing and ceilings lowering by late tomorrow
morning as showers approach, but any rain is expected to hold
off until around or just after 18Z. Winds are expected to be
rather light until late tomorrow morning when south to
southwesterly winds start to gust around 20 knots. There is the
potential for some borderline southwesterly LLWS early tomorrow,
generally between 10Z-15Z at the NY terminals, especially
around RME and SYR, so this may be included in future forecasts
if confidence increases.

The chance for any low clouds or fog overnight and early
tomorrow morning looks to be low with model soundings showing
increasing winds just above the surface during this time which
would hinder any fog formation.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Monday night...Rain showers likely and
associated restrictions, especially at the Central NY
terminals.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night...Rain showers becoming likely and associated
restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Thursday...Some lingering restrictions possible at the Central
NY terminals; otherwise becoming mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible and associated
restrictions late in the day or at night.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...DK