


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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664 FXUS61 KBGM 172351 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 751 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in tonight with warm air advection with this weekends temperatures expected to be above average. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday with rain showers and a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging is building in this afternoon with some mid and high clouds moving through. Some precipitation is moving in from Canada but with a deep dry layer near the surface, little if any of the precipitation will reach the ground. With warm air advection overnight, lows will be much warmer than the last few nights. A deep trough digs in the central US with strengthening SW flow, 850 mb temperatures rise above 10C Saturday unto Saturday night leading to above average surface temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As the central US trough moves east, it becomes negatively tilted with strong southerly flow Sunday. Day time heating will bring some of these winds to the surface later in the day, favoring the Finger Lakes region and the hills south of I-90 with the strongest gusts (25 to 35 mph). As the trough moves in, a coastal low will begin to develop with showers and thunderstorms moving in late Sunday into Sunday night. 0-6 km shear is looking very strong, in the 50 to 70 knot range but there is little to no surface instability. With recent model runs starting to favor a stronger, more dominant coastal low late Sunday into Monday, that may limit the ability to get storms to trigger in CNY into NEPA with the more favorable conditions for strong storms south and east. Still with the given shear, any storm that is able to develop and get any depth to it, will likely have the ability to produce damaging surface winds. As the coastal low deepens Monday as it moves into New England, winds switch out of the NW. The pressure gradient on the back side of the low is not too impressive so winds Monday will be lighter as there is another surface low moving into the Great Lakes region. Some wrap around precipitation is likely Monday, largely favoring CNY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Another area of low pressure moves in mid week with more chances of precipitation. Moisture will be limited with this low as the weekend low will have scoured out most of the surface moisture and there will not be enough time for return flow to bring any meaningful moisture back into the northeast. As this low moves off the coast Wednesday into Thursday, strong cold air advection takes over with good odds of 850 mb temperatures falling back below 0C. Forecast soundings also have steeper lapse rates on the back side of the low as we sit under a long wave trough leading to some lake effect rain. It does not quite look cold enough to get snow to mix in with the lake effect at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. NW flow will bring scattered to broken cloud decks into the overnight hours, increasing to overcast for much of the area into the morning hours. Guidance is showing a small hint at fog at ELM, but with the cloudy skies hindering radiational cooling and warmer air expected to move in from the SW, confidence in fog occurring is low at this time. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday and Monday...MVFR or IFR Restrictions likely (greater than 70 pct chance) with a front moving through, especially later in the day Sunday into Monday. Tuesday...A few MVFR/IFR restrictions possible (40-50 pct) during the day Tuesday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG AVIATION...ES/JTC