664
FXUS61 KBGM 172351
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight with warm air advection with
this weekends temperatures expected to be above average. A
strong cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday with
rain showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging is building in this afternoon with some mid and
high clouds moving through. Some precipitation is moving in from
Canada but with a deep dry layer near the surface, little if any of
the precipitation will reach the ground. With warm air advection
overnight, lows will be much warmer than the last few nights. A deep
trough digs in the central US with strengthening SW flow, 850 mb
temperatures rise above 10C Saturday unto Saturday night leading to
above average surface temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the central US trough moves east, it becomes negatively tilted
with strong southerly flow Sunday. Day time heating will bring some
of these winds to the surface later in the day, favoring the Finger
Lakes region and the hills south of I-90 with the strongest gusts
(25 to 35 mph). As the trough moves in, a coastal low will begin to
develop with showers and thunderstorms moving in late Sunday into
Sunday night. 0-6 km shear is looking very strong, in the 50 to 70
knot range but there is little to no surface instability. With
recent model runs starting to favor a stronger, more dominant
coastal low late Sunday into Monday, that may limit the ability to
get storms to trigger in CNY into NEPA with the more favorable
conditions for strong storms south and east. Still with the given
shear, any storm that is able to develop and get any depth to it,
will likely have the ability to produce damaging surface winds.

As the coastal low deepens Monday as it moves into New England,
winds switch out of the NW. The pressure gradient on the back side
of the low is not too impressive so winds Monday will be lighter as
there is another surface low moving into the Great Lakes region.
Some wrap around precipitation is likely Monday, largely favoring
CNY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another area of low pressure moves in mid week with more chances of
precipitation. Moisture will be limited with this low as the weekend
low will have scoured out most of the surface moisture and there
will not be enough time for return flow to bring any meaningful
moisture back into the northeast. As this low moves off the coast
Wednesday into Thursday, strong cold air advection takes over with
good odds of 850 mb temperatures falling back below 0C. Forecast
soundings also have steeper lapse rates on the back side of the low
as we sit under a long wave trough leading to some lake effect rain.
It does not quite look cold enough to get snow to mix in with the
lake effect at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. NW flow will
bring scattered to broken cloud decks into the overnight hours,
increasing to overcast for much of the area into the morning
hours. Guidance is showing a small hint at fog at ELM, but with
the cloudy skies hindering radiational cooling and warmer air
expected to move in from the SW, confidence in fog occurring is
low at this time.


Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday and Monday...MVFR or IFR Restrictions likely (greater
than 70 pct chance) with a front moving through, especially
later in the day Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday...A few MVFR/IFR restrictions possible (40-50 pct)
during the day Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...ES/JTC