260
FXUS63 KBIS 101145
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler but near normal temperatures through mid week. After a
  brief warmup on Thursday, much colder and below normal
  temperatures are expected this weekend.

- Windy conditions may return Thursday, with medium to high
  chances for rain and snow.

- Medium to high chances for accumulating snow this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Generally quiet weather can be found across western and central
North Dakota this morning. In the southwest, patchy ground fog
has developed, with the odd station reporting visibility as low
as 2 miles. Have added patchy fog across the west through the
mid morning, by which time it is expected to lift. Otherwise,
no major adjustments to the forecast were performed at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A somewhat active southwesterly flow pattern is found over the
northern Plains this morning as longwave troughing lingers over
the region. With moderate to strong Fgen and modest lapse rates
developing to the south of the forecast area, another round of
wintry precpitation is expected to develop later this morning
and afternoon. While the bulk of this precipitation is expected
to remain to our south, the northern extent of this system may
skim across our southern counties through the afternoon and into
the early evening. Considering this, we have low chances (10 to
30 percent) for a trace of snow along the ND/SD border for
today. PoPs should rapidly diminish through the evening as the
system is displaced further east by high pressure sinking out of
the southern Canadian Prairies. Otherwise, for today,
seasonable highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures
tonight drop into the lower teens northeast up to the lower 20s
west and south central.

Generally quiet weather is then expected on Wednesday as high
pressure lingers over the forecast area, though breezy
conditions may develop across the west this afternoon as steep
low to mid level lapse rates move in. With this, gusty west
winds with speeds up to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH are
possible Wednesday afternoon through the early evening. High
temperatures on Wednesday remain normal, from the lower to mid
30s central to the upper 30s and lower 40s west.

Flow over the northern Plains is expected to turn northwesterly
late Wednesday and through the day Thursday as the longwave
trough is displaced further to the east. There is decent
agreement between ensemble member families on a strong shortwave
and an associate low pressure system dropping out of the
southern Canadian Prairies early Thursday morning through
Thursday night. The greatest uncertainty regarding this system
is its track, which has ramifications on the type of
precpitation we can expected, and the strength of potential
winds. A majority cluster (approximately 60 percent of ensemble
members) favors a more northerly track of this low pressure
system. In this scenario, precpitation would be expected to fall
as rain and snow through the afternoon, as much of the south
remains under the warm sector of the low. Of more concern is the
potential for very strong winds in this scenario. CAA is
expected to increase sharply through the late afternoon and
early evening as the trailing cold front moves in from the
northwest which, along with steep low and mid level lapse rates,
would allow winds from a moderate to strong 700mb jetstreak to
mix down toward this surface. With this, at least Wind Advisory
criteria winds could be anticipated, if not approaching High
Wind Warning criteria. There may be also be some concerns for
blowing snow in this scenario, though that may depend on how
quickly a changeover from a rain-snow mix to all snow would
occur in the late afternoon and evening. A minority cluster
(approximately 40 percent of members) also exists, which instead
advertises a more southerly track for the low pressure system.
With this, mainly snow would be anticipated across the forecast
area as we remain on the cool side of the low. In this scenario,
the strongest winds will remain well to the south of the
forecast area, with perhaps only gusty winds possible in the far
southwest. The uncertainty in the winds between these two
scenarios is reflected well by the EFI during this period, with
only a low highlight of 0.6 across the southwest, but with a
shift of tails across much of the west and the south central
during this period. In either scenario, overall accumulations of
snow are expected to remain fairly light, with only a chance
(20 to 40 percent) for portions of the north to exceed 2 inches
overall.

Behind the Thursday system, strict northwesterly flow is
anticipated to persist across the northern Plains through the
early weekend allowing for a cooling trend to bring us back down
to near to slightly below normal temperatures for this time of
year. This flow pattern would also allow for a number of
shortwave perturbations and associated clipper system to promote
chances for precpitation across western and central North
Dakota. As of the current forecast cycle, much of western and
portions of central North Dakota has low to medium chances (30
to 55 percent) to exceed 2 inches of additional snowfall Friday
through Sunday, and a low chance (10 to 30 percent) to exceed 6
inches of snowfall through this same period. The majority of
additional snow during this period would be associated with a
comparatively deep trough moving across the region Saturday
through Sunday. Behind this trough, there is high ensemble
confidence on strong ridging push into the Great Plains through
much of the coming week, promoting a warming trend that will
again promote slightly to well above normal temperatures for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A widespread low stratus deck promoting MVFR to IFR ceilings can
be found over the southwest central this morning. Ceilings are
broadly expected to lift from west to east through the late
morning and afternoon, though may linger over portions of south
central North Dakota through the early evening. Light winds this
morning will turn clockwise through the day today, from the
southeast this morning, to the north northwest this evening into
early tonight. Winds will then turn westerly and gradually
strengthen overnight into early Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam