258
FXUS63 KBIS 151400
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
900 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog and drizzle through this morning.

- Seasonable temperatures through the remainder of the week,
  except Thursday, which will see above average highs in the
  east and south central.

- Periods of rain through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
  possible mainly this evening through tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Surface observations are still reporting some areas with patchy
dense fog in isolated locations, but conditions will improve as
daytime heating warms surface temperatures. Gloomy overcast
conditions will persist through the day today with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the region later today. No updates are
needed to the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Webcams and observations show that pockets of dense fog have
developed mainly in the north central. Therefore, an SPS has
been issued until 8 am CDT. Will reevaluate at that time, though
suspect these pockets of dense fog will probably stick around
until late morning. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Low level stratus is present over the entire state early this
morning and is producing areas of fog and patchy drizzle.
Visibility is generally in excess of 2 miles, though does dip
lower in some locations, especially in the north central. While
a little patchy dense fog developing this morning isn`t entirely
out of the question, soundings seem to favor the status quo of
low level stratus with visibility mostly in excess of 2 miles,
along with patchy drizzle. Models suggest ceilings should rise
a few hundred feet during the day today, which may at least end
or limit any fog and patchy drizzle during the afternoon.

Surface low pressure will continue organizing over Colorado
through the day today before lifting up through the central and
eastern Dakotas tonight through Thursday night. This will
produce periods of rain that should start in southwestern ND
this morning before expanding across much of the state today
through tonight. The highest probability for moderate to heavy
rainfall is in the west and north central where there is over a
70 percent chance of a half inch or more of rain, and a similar
probability for an inch or more in the northwest. Probabilities
for a half inch or more of rain decrease rapidly further to the
south and east.

With this system, relatively moist air is expected to advect
into southern ND tonight with mixed layer dewpoints returning
to the 50s. This will bring some instability into the state,
though models generally limit it to around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE.
While there is also plenty of shear, storm development is not
likely until the overnight hours. Therefore, while some small
hail is possible, the potential for any strong to severe storms
is low. Should any strong storms develop, they would most likely
be near the ND/SD border this evening. General thunderstorm
chances may persist through Thursday morning in the south
central and east.

Once this system clears out, mostly dry conditions are expected
through the weekend before low precipitation chances return to
start the next workweek. High temperatures will be seasonable
through the remainder of the week and mostly in the 50s. The
main exception is on Thursday where the south central and
northeast will likely reach the 60s, while the southeast may
even reach the low 70s. Lows will be mostly in the 40s through
Thursday night, then mostly in the 30s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas of fog and drizzle are expected to continue through this
morning, including pockets of dense fog mainly in the north
central. Ceilings may improve later this morning and into the
early afternoon, especially in northern parts of the state.
However, any improvement is likely to be short lived with LIFR
ceilings returning across all of western through central ND
tonight. Scattered showers will likely develop today mainly in
western ND, after which showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected across most of the state this evening and through the
overnight hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Johnson/Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken