Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 142012
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
212 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

A light wintry mix northwest, north central, and into the upper
James River Valley late tonight into Thursday highlights the short
term forecast.

Deep layer forcing will increase across northwest and north
central North Dakota late tonight into early Thursday morning with
the arrival of a potent shortwave and the left exit region of the
upper level jet as a weak clipper propagates along the
international border. A weak warm layer aloft supports a possible
initial wintry mix through 12 UTC, with mostly snow thereafter as
the profile cools. New snow amounts of less than one inch are
expected.

Windy conditions are forecast on Thursday, especially southwest
and south central in the wake of a cold front extending from the
clipper. The steepest low level lapse rates will be confined to
the far southwest and south central, coupled with only modest
isallobaric forcing. Thus, a Wind Advisory is not anticipated at
this time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Accumulating snowfall potential late Thursday night into Friday
southwest and south central highlights the extended forecast.

In general, the 12 UTC global suite has trended a bit higher with
QPF associated with a clipper system that will propagate along the
baroclinic zone of the leading of the next cold high pressure
system Thursday night into Friday. Moderate frontogenesis and deep
layer forcing will couple to favor a band of snow. One to three
inches are favored from Watford City through Steele, and points
south and west through Beach, Dickinson, Fort Yates, Linton, and
Ashely. Snowfall amounts will quickly drop off away from these
locations. Overall instability is modest, favoring a slightly
broader snow band. Cannot rule out a brief wintry mix at the
beginning of the event with a weak warm layer aloft. A cold
Saturday will follow with cool high pressure in place with
temperatures in the teens to the lower 20s. Cyclonic flow aloft is
forecast to transition to mean upper level ridging mid to late
next week with a moderating temperature pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 209 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota this morning through this evening. A wintry mix with
MVFR/IFR conditions will develop across northwest and north
central North Dakota tonight through Thursday afternoon. Low level
wind shear is possible across southwest and south central North
Dakota tonight into Thursday morning with strong winds off the
surface.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA


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