Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
941 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Issued at 940 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Only minor adjustments were made to the forecast for this update
based on current observations and trends and the latest available
short-term high-resolution model guidance. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have increased in coverage west and south of the
Missouri River over the past hour or so. Expect these to pivot
into north central North Dakota by the afternoon. Daytime high
temperatures were lowered by a few degrees from southwest into
north central North Dakota.

Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Initial surge of showers and thunderstorms rotating
north/northeast more into northern and eastern ND. As the mid
level S/WV trough swings east-northeast into western ND this
morning, showers will redevelop west into central as forcing
increases across the area. Modified POPs to better depict this
scenario and based on latest radar and near term trends.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain the main threat, then
chances decreasing rapidly this evening.

Currently, mid level low centered over southeastern Montana, with
a potent embedded wave lifting north across central North Dakota.
Surface trough now orientated from south central ND
north/northeast through the western Devils Lake Basin area.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to move north across
much of the Dakotas early this morning, with the far western
Dakotas seeing a momentary reprieve. Well defined MCV associated
with the embedded wave lifting north across central ND around
eastern Lake Sakakawea. The overall severe threat has decreased
and have allowed all thunderstorm watches to expire. Will also
allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire with this forecast issuance
as the bulk of the heavy rain should be over. Flash flood warnings
should do, and are valid for another several hours through just
before sunrise, where the heavier rain fell this past
evening/early morning.

Mid level low/trough swing northeast into western North Dakota
later this morning, north central and northeastern ND this
afternoon, exiting into southern Manitoba/Ontario tonight. Surface
trough pushes ahead of the mid level feature, exiting into eastern
ND later this morning. Showers and thunderstorm coverage will
decrease through 15Z south central and southeast as a dry slot
works its way northeast across the Dakotas, with redevelopment of
showers/isolated thunder west into central later this
morning/early afternoon as the parent low moves into our region.
Kept thunder in the forecast through the afternoon with models
showing enough CAPE coupled with the strong forcing. Still expect
to see a brief period of gusty northwest winds today in the wake
of the sfc trough and along a pressure rise bubble. Strongest
winds look to reside along to south of the I94 corridor.

Showers come to an end quickly from west to east after 21Z as
forcing departs to the northeast, ending across my area entirely
by mid to late evening. Dry and chilly overnight, with lows
forecast in the 40s. Would not be shocked to see a few upper 30s
west early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Sunday through Monday night will be dry with sfc high pressure
over the region Sunday and a S/WV ridge moving east across the
Northern Plains Monday. Left exit region of an upper level jet
pushes across our area Tuesday, along with associated mid level
PVA. Some instability present with this forcing so mentioned
thunder in the forecast Tues aft/eve.

The 150 KT upper jet pushes east-southeast across the northern
CONUS into mid-week, and will carve out an upper trough from
central Canada south across the northern tier of the US. This
results in cool temperatures for Wed with highs in the 60s.

Upper jet remains aloft or near the Northern Plains through the
remainder of the week, resulting in chances for showers and
keeping temperature below seasonal averages, with highs in the 50s
to low 60s, and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Frost
headlines may be needed under this type of pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)

Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will redevelop
this morning and afternoon as a mid level short wave trough moves
into western North Dakota. A mix of low VFR, MVFR to IFR cigs can
be expected this morning, with conditions slowly improving this
afternoon and especially this evening. Some gusty northwest winds
can also be expected today at times.




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