766
FXUS63 KBIS 172051
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow likely and strong winds tonight through Sunday,
  resulting in areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility.

- Wind Advisory and Winter Weather Advisory in effect tonight
  through Sunday afternoon for winds gusting up to 55 MPH and
  the potential for blowing snow.

- Active northwest flow continues next week, with chances for
  snow and gusty winds around the middle of next week.

- Below average temperatures continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Currently, strong north-northwest flow aloft with an initial
embedded S/WV moving south across central Alberta/Saskatchewan,
with a stronger wave to its northwest over the western Canadian
Rockies. Northwest winds continue to wind down over the east as
sfc high pressure develops south-southeast across our region,
with return flow increasing over eastern Montana and western ND.

Initial S/WV impulse will slide southeast across the Dakotas
this evening, along with a low/mid level warm front developing
east into central North Dakota. CAMs and other models in good
agreement with an area of light snow developing south-southeast
across the eastern half of the state later today into the
evening hours, in addition to temperatures warming through much
of tonight. Stronger S/WV follows the initial wave, developing
quickly south-southeastward across Saskatchewan and into central
North Dakota after midnight. This clipper will drag a strong
sfc cold front from north to south from late this evening
through early Sunday morning, resulting in scattered snow
showers and strong northwest winds in the wake of the FROPA. I
opted to increase the chances for light snow, and also the
aerial coverage and intensity of blowing snow (more so over my
east for blowing snow). BUFKIT profiles still show up to around
45 knots of wind within the mixed layer behind the cold front,
so did not upgrade the wind advisory. I did however opt to
replace the wind advisory with a winter weather advisory over my
east where there appears to be decent potential for blowing
snow impacts, despite we`re only forecasting an inch of snow
there. Consideration of the degree of blowing snow that
occurred a couple days ago there went into this decision, along
with still some blowable snow already on the ground there.

Though we are forecasting less snow central and west, upwards to
half an inch, we will need to monitor this area along with model
trends in case models increase snow amounts and/or any heavier
snow bands bring higher snow totals to certain areas. Lastly,
snow squalls will be possible, especially southwest and
especially Sunday morning, when some of the higher res models
are showing some decent lapse rates and sfc computed CAPE.

Snow ends by Sunday afternoon, with winds strong till Sunday
evening. Cold weather headlines are possible across the Turtle
Mountains Sun night/Mon morning.

A strong north/northwest flow aloft will remain in place through
the middle of next week, with models showing another 1-2 punch
of S/WV`s/clippers for the Tuesday-Wednesday period. Afterwards,
large area of Arctic low pressure is favored to develop south
across central Canada and into the northern Great Lakes region
by the end of the week. Very cold airmass accompanies the low,
though it remains uncertainty how far south this cold air mass
will move and to what degree of cold we will see in North
Dakota.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon to start the 18Z TAF period.
Expect northwest winds to gradually taper down today, becoming
more south/southwesterly ahead of our next storm system set to
arrive tonight. Winds will transition to northwest and increase
tonight along and behind a cold front, with gusts up to near 45
knots possible. Scattered snow showers and stratus will also
move in behind the cold front tonight through Sunday morning,
and will bring MVFR to periods of IFR ceilings and/or
visibility across western and central North Dakota. Strong
northwest winds continue through the day Sunday, with chances
for snow ending by late Sunday morning. With the strong winds,
BLSN will be possible all terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ Sunday for NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-
040>046.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH