Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221343
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
843 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

The forecast remains on track. No changes needed for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

The cool and dry high pressure system was over Saskatchewan, with
its axis extending southeast into eastern Montana and western North
Dakota. Temperatures had dropped into the 20s over much of western
and south central North Dakota under the ridge axis, with clear
skies and light westerly winds. North central North Dakota through
the James Valley, especially along the Coteau, have maintained west
to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, and temperatures were mainly in
the lower and middle 30s. No changes needed this update, just minor
adjustments in hourly temperature trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Early this Monday morning, a cool and dry high pressure system was
centered over Alberta/Saskatchewan, with its axis extending
southeast across northern Montana and the western Dakotas. Meanwhile
a surface low was centered over western Ontario with a trailing cold
front extending from the low southwestward across southern Manitoba
and into northern North Dakota.

The cold front will continue moving south across North Dakota this
morning as the surface high moves southeast today into Manitoba and
western North Dakota. The result should be cooler conditions across
northeastern North Dakota and mild conditions in the southwest. We
are expecting high temperatures today in the 40s over the
northeastern part of the state into the Turtle Mountains and
northern James Valley, while afternoon highs in the mid and upper
50s are forecast for most areas along and south/west of the Missouri
River.

Northwest winds today should be a bit higher (around 15-20 mph) in
the Turtle Mountains and James Valley, with north/northwest winds of
around 10 mph in western North Dakota.

Tonight the surface high continues moving east/southeast, with its
axis situated along the Red River Valley by daybreak Tuesday.
Meanwhile, southeasterly winds develop over western North Dakota
with the departing high pressure. Temperatures should drop into the
20s over all of central and much of western North Dakota tonight
under clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Models depict an upper level low/trough moving into the west coast
Monday night/Tuesday with a downstream ridge moving east across the
Northern and Central Plains Tuesday. At the surface, the Canadian
high continues moving east towards Lake Superior with low pressure
developing in the lee of the Rockies. This sets up an increasing
surface pressure gradient for southerly winds over the Plains.
Southeasterly winds should increase over western North Dakota
Tuesday with 15-25 mph southerly winds, dry weather, and highs
ranging from the 50s over western North Dakota to 40s in the east.

On Wednesday, the stronger southerly winds expand across the state.
By this time, gulf moisture begins to make its way into the Northern
Plains along a southerly low level jet that becomes established from
the southern Plains northward into central Canada. The western upper
low/trough moves east across the Rockies, its stronger northern
branch moving east across southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and its
weaker southern branch moving east across Wyoming/Montana and the
Dakotas. The best chances for light rain are in central and eastern
North Dakota Wednesday and Wednesday night.

On Thursday, the GFS and EC begin to diverge in solutions. The
stronger upper level northern branch intensifies. The GFS sends it
diving southeast across North Dakota while the EC keeps it moving
east across south central Canada. The model consensus keeps mention
of precipitation mainly over eastern North Dakota.

The models keep a cyclonic flow over North Dakota Friday and
Saturday, with chances of light rain (or light snow) across our
area. Then a building western ridge brings a dry forecast for Sunday.

Continue mild conditions through the long term with highs mainly in
the 50s and lows mainly in the 30s to around 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Northwest
winds to increase to around 15 knots at KMOT/KJMS this afternoon,
with around 10 knots at KISN/KDIK/KBIS. Decreasing winds Monday
night, becoming northeast to easterly.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV


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