Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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400
FXUS63 KBIS 152355
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
655 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Isolated radar returns have popped up over the last couple of
hours across the southwest, central and east as we are at peak
heating and as an embedded mid level wave moves in from the west.
Thus expanded POPs for these areas. For weather type, will go
with isolated showers with a slight chance for a thunderstorm
given there is some instability out there. The remainder of the
forecast remains in good shape for tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

A weak flow pattern will bring warm and generally dry conditions
across the CWA tonight though Sunday. Weak instability may lead to
an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon, while dry conditions see
low RH values for much of the area. Light winds will limit the
fire weather threat for the rest of today. Tonight, a weak upper
level trough will push across the area. This could bring an
isolated shower to the CWA, with the best chances in the north,
east, and south. Confidence this wave will produce any showers if
fairly low to moderate at this point. For now only placed in
sprinkles to isolated shower mention in the forecast.

The mentioned wave moves out of the state Sunday morning, with
weak ridging building in for Sunday. A slight surface gradient
also develops in the afternoon, bringing some light southwesterly
breezes. warm temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are once again
expected. These warm dry conditions may bring an elevated fire
weather danger threat on Sunday, especially in the north and west.
At this time winds seem to be below critical fire weather
thresholds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Dry and warm conditions will bring an increased fire weather
danger threat to start the week, with potentially active weather
to end the week.

Upper level ridge strengthens on Monday creating more warm and
dry conditions. Meanwhile the surface gradient also strengthens as
a low develops in Canada. The result will be air temperatures in
the 80s, RH values in the 20s, and potentially breezy south
winds. This could bring some near critical fire danger, especially
to northern portions. Tuesday sees similar conditions, although
dewpoints may increase across the area raising the min RH values
in the afternoon. A weak upper level wave could also bring some
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

Wednesday through the end of the week then looks to have the
potential to have a bit more active of a weather pattern. A large
upper level trough enters the western US at this time, sending
weak disturbances across the area in southwest flow. Meanwhile a
strengthening high in the southeast allows more gulf like moisture
to reach the area. The end result could be some better chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the state. Increased PWATS could
mean better QPF may be found in these showers, and at the very
least could mean a relief from fire weather danger is possible
with improved RH values. The increase in moisture combined with
temperatures remain in the 70s could also mean increased
instability across the region and the potential for stronger
thunderstorms. Too early to pinpoint timing, location, and
strength of these stronger storms, but is worth monitoring for
those with any outdoor or severe weather interests later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z forecast period. SCT
to sometimes BKN cumulus clouds will persist through the evening
with some clearing northwest. An isolated shower or a stray
thunderstorm will be possible, so went with VCSH for all but KXWA
through 06Z. Winds remain light, but could see variable wind
speeds and direction this evening associated with any outflow
boundaries that may form. Sunday will see generally clear skies,
and winds out of the southwest.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...NH



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