774
FXUS63 KBIS 220329
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
929 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of light snow is possible late tonight through
  Wednesday (30 to 40 percent chance) as a cold front moves
  through the state. Only light accumulations are expected.

- Temperatures are expected to be somewhat variable through the
  rest of the work week, but still still generally be near
  average. Windy conditions are anticipated most days as well.

- More light snow is possible (20 to 40 percent chance)
  Thursday night through Friday. The probability of exceeding
  one inch of snow with this system is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

It seems like most of the light snow has now moved out of the
area and over to the Minnesota border. That being said, it
wouldn`t be surprising if there were a few flurries falling from
any of the lower clouds floating around out there. The next
round comes in late tonight through Wednesday. No major changes
were needed for this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

The forecast looks to generally be in good shape. Some pockets
of light snow continue across the area, mainly northeast and
southwest. Some more light snow will cross the state late
tonight and into Wednesday as the main clipper scoots through.
No major changes were needed at this time, just blended in the
latest observations to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

This afternoon, a surface low was analyzed in western Manitoba under
northwest flow aloft, with a trailing warm front extending south and
bisecting the forecast area. Light radar returns have been
persistent on both sides of the frontal boundary, with intermittent
snow observations across the area. Southerly winds have shifted to
westerly behind the front, with gusts up to 35 mph. As the upper
impulse moves off to the south, snow chances will taper off this
evening across the far south. Highs today will range from the
upper teens southeast to around 30 degrees F in the southwest.

A shortwave trough and attendant cold front are progged to drop
south through the region on Wednesday, although the bulk of energy
is expected to remain west of the forecast area. We introduce POPs
along the International Border late tonight, expanding chances
(generally 30 to 40 percent) for snow south through the day,
tapering off Wednesday evening. A few tenths of an inch of
accumulation is likely, but the probability of any one location
exceeding one inch of new snowfall is low. Behind the front,
winds will shift more north-northwesterly and will be windy,
with sustained winds up to 25 mph that will diminish late in the
day. Based on the current forecast timing of the front,
locations across northern North Dakota will likely see their
daytime highs in the morning, before cooling off through the
rest of the day. Highs will be in the 20s across the forecast
area.

In the post-frontal air mass on Thursday, temperatures will be a bit
cooler, with highs mainly in the lower teens to lower 20s. Winds
will be quite a bit lower, however, and more areas will likely see
some sunshine compared to other days this week. Cloud cover
will increase late in the day as ensemble guidance is
advertising another shortwave dropping south from the Canadian
Prairies. Similar to earlier in the week, this wave looks to
bring a push of wind and a 20 to 40 percent chance of snow
across the area, with again low chances for exceeding an inch
per latest blended guidance. There is high confidence in
seasonable on Friday, with highs in the mid 20s to lower 20s,
before cooling back down on Saturday into the lower teens to
lower 20s.

For the start of next week, cluster analysis is in relatively good
agreement on a prominent ridge building in over the western CONUS,
with some question on how far east the ridge will extend and
subsequently, how warm we will end up. However, there is a
decent signal in NBM temperature percentiles for a moderate
warmup into the middle of next week, with low chances for
precipitation during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to start the period but MVFR
ceilings will move into the area late tonight or early Wednesday
morning. Some light snow will be possible through Wednesday with
low chances at any one specific point. Thus, we decided to lean
heavily on PROB30 groups across our southern sites (KDIK, KBIS,
and KJMS) on Wednesday for snow. Expect some enhanced low level
wind shear for the next couple hours at KBIS and KXWA. All sites
will see bouts of breezy winds out of the northwest through much
of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...ZH