Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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566
FXUS63 KBIS 150714
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
114 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Cancelled the Wind Chill Advisory with this update. Temperatures
will continue to slowly warm through the night under extensive
cloud cover and in the warm sector of low pressure across eastern
Saskatchewan.

UPDATE Issued at 1156 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Quick update to increase PoPs for a High-PoP/Low-QPF scenario
across much of western and central North Dakota with widespread
light snow in low level warm air advection and ahead of a mid
level impulse across north central North Dakota as of 0555 UTC
that will continue to propagate southeast through the night.

Will monitor wind chill trends as cloud cover may allow for the
Wind Chill Advisory to be cancelled early from the Turtle
Mountains through the upper James River Valley.

UPDATE Issued at 852 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Band of snow is moving through central North Dakota this evening.
Fairly narrow and short lived, we will updated pops and Snow
chances for the evening. The remainder of the forecast looks ok.

UPDATE Issued at 555 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

High pressure over the eastern Dakotas will continue moving
southeast tonight. A weak trough of low pressure in Montana will
move east into North Dakota overnight. The trough will be the
focus for light snow across the north half of the state. Current
forecast still holding ok, but will add some fog across the
southwest where light fog has been reported at Hettinger and
Dickinson.

Otherwise, we will see cold wind chills tonight from Bottineau
through Rugby, Harvey and Jamestown. Increasing clouds later
tonight will likely help to warm temperatures a bit after
Midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be wind chill
headlines east and a shot of light accumulating snow tonight
northwest into central areas of the state along to north of I94.

Currently, northwest flow aloft with embedded impulses pushing
southeast across the Northern Plains. Surface high pressure
positioned over the eastern one half of the state. Along to west
of the sfc high pressure ridge, extensive area of clouds are
present along with a few areas of light snow showers, which
diminish as they stream southeast towards the ridge.

A more defined S/WV impulse will move into northeastern Montana
by around 00Z, then moves east-southeast across northwest and
north central ND this evening, and into southeastern ND overnight.
At the same time, the sfc high will develop southeast into
southern Minnesota by 12Z. Models in good agreement bringing an
area of light accumulating snow with this wave for the
aforementioned areas, with up to half an inch of snow possible
from my northwest, north central, and across the northern James
Valley. Increased POPs earlier and will maintain them with this
forecast issuance, with snow ending over my east central 12-14Z
Sun.

Return flow in the wake of the high will enable WAA from west to
east tonight, with low temperatures occurring in the evening west
and central, with steady to rising temperatures overnight. It will
take a bit longer for the warmer air and clouds to arrive over my
east, and as a result this is where we expect the colder
temperature tonight. When combined with return flow southerly
wind, will again see wind chills at or below -25F east so will
hoist a wind chill advisory there for tonight.

Should see more sunshine for Sunday along with much warmer
temperatures ranging from the teens east to mid 20s southwest.
Another cold front then arrives across the north Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Quiet and milder weather highlight the extended forecast.

Cyclonic northwest flow aloft to begin the week is forecast to
transition to mean upper level ridging across the Northern Plains
mid to late in the week by global models. This favors a recovery
to above normal high temperatures, and a prolonged period with
minimal precipitation chances.

Some signal we return to a more active flow pattern during the
week of Christmas, though extreme uncertainty regarding any
specifics at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 112 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus and light snow across
western and central North Dakota tonight. Stratus may remain
across most of the area on Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...PA



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