Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201923
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
223 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Pesky stacked low pressure system continues to spin over southern
SD/northern NE this afternoon, bringing a few light showers
across far southwest ND. Expect the low to slowly drift off to the
southeast tonight into Thursday, with high pressure building over
the Black Hills. This will allow for dry weather, pleasant
temperatures, and light winds through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

A closed mid/upper level (700mb/500mb) will slowly scoot across
southern Montana Thursday night, and into South Dakota by Saturday.
In doing so, precipitable water values/Pwats, rise to between 1.0
and 1.4 inches across the west and into portions of west central
ND. Light winds through the column, especially within the steering
flow (700mb-500mb layer), could lead to pockets of heavy rainfall
mainly across western North Dakota Friday evening, and again
Saturday afternoon/evening.

With the upper low shifting into southeastern Montana Friday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
west through the day Friday. The NAM/GFS show mixed layer Cape
values between 1000-1500 J/Kg across the west, but no deep layer
shear. However, forcing/omega increases after 00z Saturday, thus
we could see a couple of locally heavy rain producers. Additional
forcing arrives Saturday afternoon and evening per GFS BUFKIT
soundings across the west, and hence heavy rainfall is once again
a possibility. With weak flow, a lingering upper trough across the
Northern High Plains, high Pwats, and additional shortwaves
traversing through Sunday and Monday, expect continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms will continue.

Tuesday looks dry at this time with a shortwave ridge sliding
across western/central ND. This is followed up by a surface cold
front Tuesday night/Wednesday with another chance for
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period, with
northeast winds around 5-10 kt becoming light and variable
overnight.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hollan
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Hollan



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