Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 051730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1130 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Fog continues to slowly erode this morning and should be
completely gone within the next hour or two. It is shaping up to
be another warm day across the southwest with highs in the upper
60s. Fog is once again possible tonight, though it does not appear
that it will be as widespread or dense as it was last night due to
a more southerly component to winds and not so much easterly.

UPDATE Issued at 932 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory for a few counties along the
periphery, but extended the Advisory for a an hour elsewhere.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Quick update to expand the Dense Fog Advisory to Stark and
Hettinger Counties. Fog is slowly pushing westward. The latest
trends in observations and short-term model guidance suggest dense
fog will make it as far west as at least the central portions of
these counties. Fog will then begin to shrink across the western
and eastern edges and come to an end across the Highway 83
corridor last.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Based on satellite observations, decided to expand the Dense Fog
Advisory to include Grant and Sioux counties. Also decided to
cancel the advisory for Foster county as the eastern edge of the
fog continues to advect west. Stutsman and Wells counties are
probably not too far behind, but will hang on to the advisory here
for now as small portions of each county are likely still
experiencing dense fog. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be in
good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Dense morning fog followed by another mild and dry day.

Early this Friday morning, dense fog continues to develop and
expand along a wide swath from the northwest corner of the state
to the southern James River valley. Several sites across the area
have been reporting visibility readings of a quarter mile or less
for multiple hours. As the sun comes up, fog should start to lift
in the mid morning hours. After the fog lifts, another mild and
dry day is in store. Some clouds may linger through the day
across portions of the north and east. Where clouds do linger,
temperatures will be cooler than in previous days, in the lower
40s to lower 50s. But further west and south, temperatures should
be fairly similar to recent days, in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Stratus may develop tonight across portions of the west and much
of the central, but fog potential will likely be more limited as
winds will be a bit on the high side.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 416 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across the
southwest on Saturday. Mild weather continues for much of the
long term forecast period with the warmest day likely on Saturday.
For high temperatures on Saturday, we continued to nudge towards
the higher NBM percentiles given the upper ridge axis directly
overhead. The result produces a range of highs from the lower 50s
across the Turtle Mountains, to the upper 60s and even a few lower
70s across the southwest. Very dry conditions are expected across
much of the southwest, where afternoon relative humidity values
may dip to around 20 percent. Additionally, winds will be quite
breezy (up to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph) out of the southeast ahead
of an approaching cold front. Thus, will continue to message near
critical fire weather conditions across the southwest on Saturday
in the Fire Weather Forecast and Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Sunday will not be as warm, but highs should remain well
above normal with widespread readings in the upper 40s to lower
60s. Behind the cold front, winds will once again be breezy Sunday
afternoon, but out of the northwest.

The flow becomes more zonal on Monday as a broad western trough
approaches Tuesday into Wednesday. This could be the start of a
more active period, but trends suggest that only light
precipitation amounts are likely through the long term. Split flow
continues to keep any organized cyclogenesis well east of the
region. Ensembles and blends have continued the trend down on QPF
as well. However, with southwest flow aloft and at least some
forcing likely on Tuesday and Wednesday, will maintain slight
chance to chance PoPs.

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be cooler with
more cloud cover (especially Tuesday and Wednesday) but still well
above normal for this time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Mar 5 2021

MVFR/IFR conditions at KBIS/KMOT will give way to VFR within the
next couple of hours. VFR is expected at all sites through the
rest of the day. Fog and/or low stratus is once again expected
tonight across central North Dakota, but we do not anticipate it
being as widespread or as dense as it was last night. Breezy
southerly winds are expected tomorrow.




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