Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Issued at 927 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Satellite and surface observations confirm smoke is again
becoming more prevalent across the northern plains so will add
areas of smoke back in. Otherwise cooler air is moving in behind
the cold front. The showers and scattered thunderstorms will
gradually end southeast this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

No significant changes other than updating pops based on latest
radar and populated latest sensible weather elements. First
glimpse of visible satellite with surface obs seems to indicate
smoke may be clearing slower than indicated. Day shift may need to
re-visit smoke clearing during the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms and smoke will be the main
forecast issues in the short term period.

Upper level low over the high plains of eastern Wyoming with an
elongated surface low from around Ellendale ND to Pierre SD.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are lifting northward from
north central SD into the James River Valley. Scattered stronger
storms late last night and earlier this morning have trended
downward within the past hour or so with increasing CIN. Could
still be some small hail with the strongest storms. The greatest
threat remaining this morning surface would be some locally heavy
rainfall over the southern James River Valley as storms track
across the same area early this morning and with possibly another
round of storms again later today.

Smoke was quite thick over northwest and north central ND behind
the cold front that is dropping south through the state. Stronger
northerly flow is helping to mix the smoke down to the surface.
Visibilities have been in the 3-5 mile range over northern ND into
southern Saskatchewan. The latest RAP/HRRR/Canadian smoke models
do indicate a break in the smoke later today with smoke clearing
from north to south.

Much cooler today with highs generally in the 70s, and some 60s
over the southern JRV where clouds and showers will likely remain
through most of the day.

Quite cool tonight with overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Cool conditions linger through Tuesday with a northwest flow aloft
and high pressure at the surface. Highs will be in the 70s Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures gradually warm mid to late week with
highs mainly in the 80s Wednesday through Friday, then cooling
slightly on Saturday. The next significant chance of
precipitation will be Thursday through Thursday night with the
next shortwave trough and associated cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Rain showers and occasional thunder to begin the TAF period at
KJMS, lasting another hour or so. Otherwise MVFR visibilities
at times this morning in smoke with a breezy northerly wind.
Smoke is expected to clear this afternoon from north to south.
Winds diminishing this afternoon with mainly clear skies tonight.




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