Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 161430
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

No changes made to the current forecast with this update. Light
returns on radar continue to move south through the area, with
most observing stations reporting either light snow or mist/haze.
Clouds are still expected to clear from northwest to southeast
beginning late this morning into early this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

A broad area of low clouds under a shortwave is currently bringing
scattered light rain and snow across the CWA. Some sites are also
reporting haze and mist with some slight reductions in visibility.
Made some adjustments to PoPs to account for latest trends, while
also added in patchy fog to account for haze/mist being reported.
Overall expect these conditions to last through the morning hours,
with improving conditions this afternoon. High temperatures today
will be slightly warmer and in the 40s. Winds will also be light
today and generally from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Another cloudy and cool day is in store today, with scattered rain
and snow showers also expected. A weak 500 MB trough will push
through the region today and encounter abundant moisture that has
been trapped across the region. The result will be another mostly
cloudy day, with scattered light rain and snow showers. Abundant
cloud cover tonight has limited cooling. This will provide for
perhaps more chances of rain than snow today. Either way,
accumulations both for snow and QPF look to be minimal today.
Expect high temperatures today to be slightly warmer yet remain
below seasonal normals and generally be in the 40s.

Late this afternoon through tonight, high pressure ridge will
start to influence the region and begin diminishing clouds and
ending chances for precipitation from northwest to southeast.
This clearing will bring low temperatures slightly below normal
and in the 20s. Depending how quick skies can clear, some areas of
patchy fog will be possible tonight as winds also lessen.
Forecast confidence is low on this, and not currently represented
in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

After a mild and dry day on Saturday, a somewhat cool, active,
and breezy pattern looks to be found Sunday through about mid
week.

High pressure ridge will bring a seasonal and dry day across the
state on Saturday. Look for temperatures near normal and in the
50s, with a light northwest breeze found at times. A shift in the
weather then looks to be found Sunday and on through mid week.
Starting Sunday a cold front looks to push across the state from
north to south. This will bring areas of rain and snow, along with
breezy to potentially windy conditions. Temperatures on Sunday
will largely depend on the timing of the front, and could even
drop during the daytime hours. Precipitation amounts still remain
to be determined, although some areas in the west and south could
see a wetting rain during the day Sunday. As mentioned winds may
also be breezy with this front and generally out of the north.
Confidence for strong winds is low to medium at this point as
stack and strong winds aloft are lacking at this time.

Sunday night through Monday then looks to be cool and breezy
across the area. A large trough pattern on Monday could also
provide for some scattered light snow showers with minimal
accumulations expected. Look for high temperatures on Monday to
drop into 30s across most areas. Tuesday through the start of
Thursday then sees a generally dry northwest flow pattern. Each
day may be slightly warmer then the last, with perhaps some breezy
winds at times. High temperatures by Thursday may even return into
the 50s. Precipitation chance will also be limited through mid
week. Another sharp cold front may then come through sometime
later Thursday into Friday. This could bring the next chance for
widespread rain and snow, along with more breezy winds and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Showers and periods of low clouds look to bring MVFR to IFR
conditions the morning hours today. Showers look to be a mix of
rain and snow across most sites. Some areas could also see patchy
fog/haze/mist this morning under low clouds. Showers and patchy
fog look to diminish this afternoon, although lingering cloud
cover could still bring MVFR ceilings. Improving conditions will
continue tonight, with VFR to scattered MVFR cloud cover
expected across most sites. Some patchy fog may return again
tonight, although confidence is too low to include in the forecast
at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gale
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin


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