924
FXUS63 KBIS 160038
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
638 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is expected along and north of Interstate
  94 Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- Medium chances for at least 6 inches of snow along and north
  of Highway 2, where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.

- Precipitation could begin as light rain or freezing rain
  Tuesday morning, likely transitioning to rain for all areas
  Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

- Strong east-southeast winds Tuesday turning to the northwest
  Wednesday could produce areas of blowing snow.

- Well above normal temperatures through Tuesday, then a rapid
  switch to below normal for the second half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

No major changes are needed for this update. Current conditions
and trends have been blended into the forecast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Stalled frontal boundary will continue mild temperatures through
this evening, with some near to above record highs in the south.
Along this boundary could be a few rain or snow showers in the
north, with limited impacts expected. This front then moves
south as a weak cold front tonight. There could be a few rain or
snow showers along this weak front tonight, although dry air in
place will make it difficult for precipitation to reach the
ground. Have some 10 percent chances for this precipitation,
although the forecast currently remains dry. Some hi-res models
indicate at least patchy fog may return tonight for some central
and eastern portions. Soundings are overall dry, and there could
be some lingering mid to high clouds. Given fog formation with
similar conditions the past few nights, added in patchy fog for
these central and eastern locations. Low temperatures tonight
will generally be in the 20s, although some cooler temperatures
in the teens behind the mentioned front are expected in the
north. Another mild and mainly dry day is then in store for the
Washington`s Birthday Holiday. Except for the far northeast,
highs will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in these northeastern
locations. Record highs in the mid to upper 50s may be
approachable yet tough to beat given some lingering cloud cover
and a switch to southeasterly flow. An isolated rain shower is
also possible along a stalled front, although confidence was
not high enough to include PoPs at this time. A brief ridge
aloft moves over the state Monday night, increasing the surface
gradient and bringing some breezy east southeasterly winds.
Mild overnight lows in the 20s and 30s are also expected, along
with mainly dry conditions.

A dynamic storm system is still forecast to move across the
region Tuesday through Wednesday. NAEFS data show a strong low
for this time of year developing in southeastern Montana during
the day Tuesday with southwest flow aloft from a quite
negatively tilted trough. Mild and breezy conditions will be
found ahead of these features during the day Tuesday as a
result, with highs in the 30s north to the 40s and 50s south. A
head of this low could also be some rain showers, with perhaps a
wintry mix in the north. This pattern is also favorable for
drizzle and freezing drizzle (if cold enough) ahead of the low
on Tuesday. As this surface low and upper level trough moves
through Tuesday night and Wednesday widespread rain changing to
snow is expected. Where the higher and more impactful amounts
of snow remains still remains an area of uncertainty. About 70
percent of clusters favoring a more northern track for this low,
putting the more impactful snow near the Canadian border and
especially along and north of Highway 2. The remaining 30
percent of clusters show a slightly more southern track. Given
the higher confidence in this more northern solution decided to
issue a Winter Storm Watch for areas along and north of Highway
2 for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. These areas have
at least 50% chance for 6 inches or more of snow, with the
higher probability coming near the Canadian border as also
favored by ECMWF EFI values. Elsewhere, accumulating snow is
still likely with accumulations highly dependent on the low
track. The chance for at least 2 inches of snow is anywhere from
10 percent south to 90 percent north. Of concern is the blowing
snow potential with this system. Overall the favored northern
low track with the heavily tilted trough could make lining up
the strongest winds with the heavier snow amounts. ECMWF EFI
values currently favor southwestern North Dakota for the
strongest winds. There still could be enough wind to produce
patchy to areas of blowing snow, especially on Wednesday. Cold
air filters in from west to east Tuesday night. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be much cooler than recent days,
and generally in the 20s and 30s. A break in the snow could then
come Wednesday night, with lows below zero northwest to the
teens southeast.

Trough pattern could continue mid to late this coming week,
lingering chances for at least light snow and colder
temperatures. The chances for over 2 inches of snow shift more
to the southern half of the state to end the week, although
remain low at 10 to 30 percent. NBM temperatures may also be
skewed too high given the recent warm trend. Thus colder than
forecast temperatures are possible through late week. This
combined with lingering breezy winds, may bring some near Cold
Weather Advisory wind chills. Depending on snow accumulations,
these breezy winds could also bring at least some patchy blowing
snow during this time period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some
patchy fog could develop once again across central and eastern
North Dakota tonight into Monday morning, but is not expected to
impact any TAF sites at this time. Winds will become light and
variable later this evening through tonight, then southeasterly
around 10 kts Monday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening for NDZ001>005-009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan