Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
908 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Issued at 852 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Light radar returns continue crossing over portions of the
forecast area, mainly in central ND. Still not expecting much more
than sprinkles at this point in time for now. However, ceilings
are starting to lower a bit and dewpoints depressions have come
down significantly. Most CAMs suggest better shower activity won`t
begin to occur until later tonight. However, the RAP suggests
scattered showers in central North Dakota around this time.
Depending on how things evolve over the next hour or so, may add
scattered showers through the remainder of the evening into early

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Light radar returns continue from northern Stutsman through
eastern Mountrail counties and north. However, very dry air
persists with dewpoint depressions generally 20 degrees or more,
and ceilings of 10 kft or more. Therefore, most returns are virga
with a few sprinkles reaching the ground. In addition, with
transient clouds over most of the forecast area, increased sky
cover over areas that were limited in coverage.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Chances for rain and high temperatures in the 60s and 70s
highlight the short term.

Currently a band of light rain stretching from Glasgow to
Bismarck is moving east through the area. This band is associated
with a very small short wave trough embedded in the general ridge
aloft. Most of this rain is not reaching the ground based on low
reflectivity and surface observations. The only location that has
reported rain is Williams County. This rain band should continue
to work eastward through the rest of the afternoon, slowly
weakening as the shortwave moves east. Mid to upper level clouds
cover most of the western half of the state currently, and should
continue through most of the night and into Tuesday.

Tuesday morning a little disturbance in the flow from the Northern
Rockies moves through North Dakota bringing widespread chances of
rain for the area. A clipper also works south from Canada at this
time bringing another slight chance of rain to our far northeast
Tuesday night. Clouds will decrease from west to east as that
disturbance moves out.

Temperatures through this period will still be mild, thanks to the
ridging aloft. The lows tonight will be in the upper 40s, with a
few locations only getting down to the lower 50s. Highs Tuesday
range from the lower 60s in The James River Valley, to the mid 70s
in the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon
May 16 2022

More chances of rain and some cooler temperatures are the main
highlights for the long term.

Wednesday morning the aforementioned clipper moves off to the
east, as a shortwave ridge starts to builds in from the west.
High temperatures will be similar to Tuesday, ranging from the
lower 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south. Thursday
morning another Alberta clipper develops and starts to push the
ridge off to the east. The ridge axis moves to our east as
southwest flow starts to take over early in the morning.
Widespread rain is likely with this clipper, along with cooler
temperatures and breezy conditions. Highs will struggle to reach
the the 60s, with most locations staying in the 50s. This chance
of rain looks to continue through Friday, where we will see our
coldest temperatures of the week. Highs look to only reach into
the upper 40s, with maybe a few cities touching the 50s. A
positive tilted trough develops with this clipper. The chance for
rain will then end when this trough axis moves east of our area.
On the Cluster analysis, a great amount of uncertainty remains
with the timing of this trough. This signal has remained
consistent over past few days.

The chance to see a few snowflakes is also possible in the west
with this system. Models have temperatures at 850mb below
freezing Friday through Saturday. With snow mixing with rain and
surface temperatures well above freezing, no snow will accumulate
of course. Saturday evening another shortwave embedded in the
back side of the trough could move through, giving us another
slight chance of rain.

Sunday looks to be dry, with temperatures warming back
into the 60s through Monday. Another Alberta clipper could move
through Monday, bringing another chance of rain to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

For the most part, VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected
through the TAF period, although KBIS may drop to MVFR ceilings
late Tuesday morning and into the afternoon. In addition,
scattered showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of thunder, across
the area could result in brief reductions in ceilings and
visibilities for every TAF site. The exception is KXWA which
looks likely to remain west of any rain showers.




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