Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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808
FXUS63 KBIS 182351
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
551 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...

Issued at 551 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Modified POPs based on latest radar imagery and surface reports.
Basically two areas of light snow, one over my east and the other
across my southwest. We start to loose ice aloft overnight, and
this will result in some patchy/areas freezing drizzle southwest
early Monday morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Current surface analysis places cold front stretching east to west
across northern North Dakota. Some snow is being reported in the
wake of the front, mainly in the Minot area. Upper level analysis
continues to show broad cyclonic flow over the region with weak
clipper zipping into the area. Ridge remains over the west coast.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, clipper will continue
its advance through the region with snow chances sliding
southward, although not much in the way of accumulation is
expected. After midnight precipitation chances will be mainly over
southwestern areas as a secondary wave slides into the area.

On Monday, snow chances linger into the morning. There will be
the potential for a little light freezing drizzle as ice aloft
comes into question. Quiet weather expected across the area in the
afternoon, with snow chances developing over the north central,
mainly in the late evening and overnight. By late night, a little
warmer air moving in aloft could result in a little bit of
freezing rain, but it would be short lived.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Upper ridge over the Pacific coast will gradually work its way
towards the east through the week, passing over our area on
Thanksgiving morning, bringing dry conditions to our area through
Friday morning. Precipitation chances then enter the forecast
through the rest of the period as pattern becomes active.

A northeast/southwest temperature gradient will remain through
the forecast period, though an overall warming trend is expected
through Thursday. Temperatures are then expected to cool behind a
passing cold front as the ridge pushes east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Issued at 551 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Widespread MVFR conditions with localized IFR conditions will
expand across the local region as a cold front moves south across
North Dakota early this evening. Areas of light snow and fog will
accompany the fronts passage. Some freezing drizzle will then be
possible after 06Z southwest through Monday morning. This includes
KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



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