096
FXUS64 KBMX 170514
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1214 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025

Low pressure will develop and strengthen over the Ohio Valley and
move northeast. A mid level jet around this low will move across
the area this afternoon. With low and mid level flow prevailing
out of the southwest and the higher winds with the jet, plenty of
warm and moist air will be advected, with PW values max
climatologically for this time of year. Diurnal convection will be
possible this afternoon, with a moderate chance for more
widespread coverage through the evening and early night. Strong
winds will be the main threat. Localized flooding will be a threat
in any of the stronger activity that can train. Wednesday will be
more of the same with diurnal convection.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025

By Wednesday night, a low pressure will move just south of the
Great Lakes region, and trailing a boundary across the eastern US.
This boundary is expected to move through the state in the
afternoon on Thursday, with convection developing through the
afternoon and the early part of the night. Low level flow out of
the southwest Wednesday will transition to more of a westerly flow
by Thursday. There should be plenty of moisture for high rain
rates, and with the flow parallel to the boundary, a localized
flooding threat may be higher on Thursday. The boundary will move
to somewhere in the southern half of the state before stalling
through Friday. Models are in decent agreement that the convection
on Friday will mostly be in the southern half of the state, with
higher PW values from the westerly flow along and south of the
boundary. North of the boundary, northwest flow will bring cooler
and drier air and limit the chance for much convection.

By Saturday, the boundary moves south with high pressure
strengthening over much of the southeastern CONUS. Scattered
diurnal activity will prevail each afternoon through the beginning
of next work week, with light wind profile and plenty of
instability bringing a chance for strong winds and small hail with
any activity each day.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region
over the next couple of hours. Have prevailed -TSRA at BHM/EET/ASN
with VCSH at TCL/MGM as activity has already passed through. Low
level stratus is expected to develop area wide by 09-10Z with VFR
returning by mid morning. Went ahead an introduced fog with this
update. Best chances for fog will come for those that received
sufficient rainfall today. Will likely need amendments once the
fog begins to develop. Another round of convection is in store
tomorrow afternoon so have include PROB30 groups for all terminals
during the afternoon hours.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A disturbed pattern will remain across the area, with showers and
thunderstorms remaining in the forecast through the weekend.
Given the moist airmass overhead, MinRH values will remain over
50% during this timeframe as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  87  69  89 /  30  80  40  60
Anniston    71  86  71  88 /  30  70  30  50
Birmingham  71  86  72  88 /  40  80  30  60
Tuscaloosa  71  86  73  89 /  40  80  30  60
Calera      71  86  72  87 /  40  80  30  60
Auburn      71  87  71  89 /  30  60  20  40
Montgomery  72  89  72  90 /  20  70  20  60
Troy        71  89  71  91 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24