183
FXUS64 KBMX 160510
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1210 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

- Heat: Major to extreme heat risk is expected to persist through
  the weekend into the beginning of the workweek, with heat
  indices reaching 105 to near 110 degrees. Heat advisories are in
  effect.

- Thunderstorms: After a break today, a summertime convective
  pattern returns Monday through much of the week with 20-40% rain
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026

Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast into
the middle of next week, keeping heat index values well into Heat
Advisory criteria. Rain chances will also start to decrease by
today, as the ridge shifts slightly to the west. This will allow
for more convergence aloft up north, keeping the isolated rain
chances mainly in our southern counties. These storms will
continue to be capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty
winds given the incredibly unstable airmass.

By the middle of next week, the ridge will slide to the west even
more, allowing for the region to shift into northwest flow
between the ridge to the west, and a trough over the Ohio Valley.
Guidance is already in pretty good agreement with a surface
boundary working into the region during this time, with medium
confidence in increased rain chances, and afternoon highs
dropping a few degrees by Friday. While this won`t be a wholesale
swing, any relief will be welcomed given this extended pattern
we`ve been stuck in.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are expected (>95% chance) through
the period due to a persistent upper-level ridge. Chances for
isolated SHRA/TSRA are very low on Sunday (10% or less) due to
ridging and dry air.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.

32/JDavis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As ridging builds this weekend, conditions will turn drier, with
MinRH values dropping into the 35 to 40 percent across western
and southwestern counties. Winds will remain light through the
period. Look for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the next several days, with the greatest
chances across our southern areas. Elevated fire weather concerns
will remain low over the next seven days, but may begin to
increase if rain-free conditions persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     99  77 100  75 /   0   0  30  10
Anniston    97  75  97  74 /   0   0  20  10
Birmingham  98  78  98  76 /   0   0  30  10
Tuscaloosa 100  78 100  76 /   0   0  30  10
Calera      98  77  99  76 /  10   0  40  10
Auburn      93  76  95  77 /  20   0  20  10
Montgomery  99  77 100  76 /  20   0  30  20
Troy        97  76  98  75 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...32/JDavis