Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
447 FXUS64 KBMX 011752 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1252 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 At the surface, a subtle inverted trough is centered near the Mississippi River. It will influence isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the north/northwestern portions of the area today and tomorrow. Most locations should remain dry with partly cloudy skies, but a passing shower is not out of the question. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s during the day with lows in the 60s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 A shortwave will move into the Lower MS River Valley on Wednesday. Mid-level moisture will be lacking so that should keep rain coverage from becoming widespread, but scattered showers and a few storms will be possible area-wide. A cold front will pass through the area on Thursday with yet another frontal passage expected over the weekend, possibly early next week. Doesn`t appear that mid-level moisture will ever rebound behind the first shortwave, so precip along the frontal boundaries looks limited to scattered coverage at most, but PoPs could increase as we get closer. Temperatures towards the end of the week have also trended warmer in the most recent updates with some communities reaching the low 90s from Thursday through Saturday. Humidity values remain seasonably low and could trend even lower behind the frontal passage this weekend. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025 Look for some fair weather cumulus and cirrus today with VFR TAFs expected for the next 24 hours. Light/variable to E-SE winds 6-8kts are possible this afternoon. While there are low rain chances in the forecast at times for the NRN TAF sites, chances are too low to mention for most. I have included a PROB30 for SHRA for BHM tonight, but activity outside of that for the NRN sites should be more isolated. The better coverage of SHRAs will be across far NRN AL into C TN. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values will range from 40-55% this afternoon with chances for isolated to scattered showers across northern portions of the area through Wednesday associated with shortwave activity. Moisture values will remain relatively steady for the next few days, and will be above critical thresholds. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 83 62 85 / 20 20 30 40 Anniston 62 83 63 85 / 20 20 10 30 Birmingham 66 85 65 86 / 30 30 20 30 Tuscaloosa 67 87 66 88 / 20 20 20 30 Calera 65 86 65 87 / 20 20 10 30 Auburn 63 84 64 85 / 0 10 10 10 Montgomery 64 87 64 90 / 0 10 10 10 Troy 62 86 62 88 / 0 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...08