Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
056 FXUS64 KBMX 031842 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1242 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1241 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026 - Mid-Week Focus: Keep an eye on tonight into Wednesday as rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up. The severe weather threat is low, but heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding. - Cooldown Ahead: Get the jackets ready for the end of the week. A passing front will drop our temperatures, leaving us with lows in the 40s and potentially mid to upper 30s for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1241 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026 By later this afternoon, our next system approaches as a low moves out of Eastern Kansas across to Iowa and Michigan by Thursday. As it does so, it will drag a front across much of the Gulf Coast States including Central Alabama. We could see scattered thunderstorms with enough forcing from the front, along with heavy rain at times. Latest guidance looks to weaken storms as they get closer tonight with some of the flow potentially slow at times with the lower stream system. This is pointing more toward heavy rain/localized flooding potential for tonight into Wednesday morning than severe, more so in the NW half of Central Alabama. Behind it for Thursday, there will be a small chance for some wrap-around showers behind the front as the upper trough pushes across Eastern Conus. Then on Friday a second front, with a small to medium chance for a few showers with it, is expected to bring down a much colder Canadian air mass to lower the temperatures back into the 40s (and maybe some mid to upper 30s) for lows for Central Alabama as the weekend progresses and into the first part of next week. There is a medium chance that we could see our first frost by Monday night. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2026 All terminals will carry a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings through 03/21z, before briefly mixing back out into VFR category. From here, rain chances will increase past 03/23z, with all terminals carrying SHRA overnight. Periods of thunder are expected over the next 24 hours, but confidence is currently not high enough to pinpoint the highest thunder probabilities, so TS has not been introduced in any FM groups only in PROB30s. Otherwise, ceilings will fall once more past 04/06z, with all terminals falling into IFR category through the end of the period. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. Rain returns to the forecast this afternoon. East to southeast winds with gusts near 20 MPH at times, generally during the afternoon hours, will become southeast to southwest on Wednesday as our front moves into the area. Drier and cooler conditions return late this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 76 57 77 / 80 100 20 10 Anniston 65 77 61 77 / 70 90 40 10 Birmingham 65 76 57 75 / 80 90 10 10 Tuscaloosa 65 77 54 77 / 80 80 0 0 Calera 66 76 59 76 / 80 90 20 10 Auburn 66 77 65 78 / 50 90 60 40 Montgomery 66 81 63 79 / 60 80 40 20 Troy 64 80 63 80 / 60 80 50 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...16