225
FXUS64 KBMX 070538
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

 - Medium to high chances of dense fog developing overnight.

 - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below
   average, with an extended period of below freezing nights
   possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 539 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

Continuing to see strong signals in the guidance for dense fog
tonight with an advection fog setup along with very low clouds
bases. The late-afternoon clearing across the north may also aid
development from a radiational perspective. Will keep an eye on
temperatures in the far northeast counties which may drop to right
around freezing for any patchy freezing fog, but chances of any
impacts from that remain very low. Will likely be issuing a dense
fog advisory this evening for much if not all of the area. Added
some slight chance PoPs for during the day on Sunday with models
indicating some very low QPF with a surge in 850mb moisture, but
expect this to be more drizzly in nature. Higher chances for light
rain will come Sunday night with as shortwave and associated cold
air aloft.

32/JDavis

Previous discussion:
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

One more day of rain is expected tomorrow, before the trough and
cold front finally push through the region during the early morning
hours of Monday. This rain will generally be showers, with most
locations only seeing an additional tenth of an inch or less of
rainfall ahead of the frontal passage.

Widespread fog is expected tonight, as the boundary to our south
slowly begins to shift north. This should keep mixing to a minimum,
and keep dewpoint depressions very small. While most of this fog
will be patchy, areas of dense fog are likely to develop in our
southern zones. There is a question as to how far north the densest
fog makes it, but reduced visibilities are expected nonetheless.

Surface ridging will quickly begin to build in along the Gulf Coast
behind the front, with temperatures slowly warming through the
middle of next week. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the
warmest days of this forecast, with highs ranging in the upper-50s
to mid-60s. However, another deep trough and cold front will begin
dropping SE through the Midwest by Thursday. This trough should work
through the region by Friday, dropping temperatures once more. It`s
worth noting that there`s already a pretty strong signal in the long-
range guidance that multiple systems will follow this same route
through next weekend. In turn, each system would deepen the already
cold airmass. Friday onward has the chance to be the coldest
sustained air of the season, with afternoon highs not even making it
out of the 40`s for some people.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025

A low cloud deck has brought IFR cigs to all terminals as it has
moved northward across Central Alabama. Cigs should deteriorate to
LIFR at most terminals by the early morning hours. Additionally, fog
is still somewhat likely during the overnight hours, so have
maintained lowered vis at all sites and IFR vis at most. Should see
IFR cigs hang around until roughly midday before improving to MVFR.
Light drizzle may occur at times during the morning and afternoon.
Rain will move in from Mississippi west to east across the area
after 0z, with MVFR cigs and occasional low vis expected.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light rain returns to the area tonight. MinRH values will remain
above 50% through Monday, and above 40% Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next rain chance comes Thursday night. Fire weather concerns remain
limited through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     31  54  37  50 /   0  20  60   0
Anniston    34  56  40  51 /   0  20  60   0
Birmingham  36  55  41  50 /   0  20  60   0
Tuscaloosa  38  58  41  53 /  10  20  60   0
Calera      37  58  41  53 /   0  20  60   0
Auburn      41  56  45  54 /   0  20  70  10
Montgomery  42  58  44  54 /  10  20  60   0
Troy        42  58  45  55 /  10  30  70   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION...12