984
FXUS64 KBMX 011754
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

- Widespread Rainfall: Showers and storms return to the forecast
  by Friday, with the best chances Sunday through Monday. Rainfall
  amounts will generally be between 1 to 2 inches across the
  southern and central sections of the region, with locally higher
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

Deep moisture will continue streaming into the region from the
south, although generally dry conditions will persist across much
of the area through Saturday. Moisture return will gradually
increase through the weekend, albeit somewhat delayed as a cold
front stalls to the north and Gulf moisture is partially
intercepted by coastal convection. By Sunday, a shortwave impulse
is projected to track north-northeastward out of the Gulf into
southwestern Central Alabama. This feature will aid in lifting
heavier rainfall farther inland rather than confining it to the
coast. Monday night into Tuesday, a deepening trough over eastern
Canada will kick the cold front southward through the area. In
its wake, a cooler and drier air mass will filter into the
region, bringing a return to seasonable temperatures through
midweek.

Confidence remains moderate that the approaching cold front will
stall far enough north to allow Sunday`s shortwave to traverse a
significant portion of the local area. This setup is expected to
produce widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches through
Monday. Given the moderate-to-heavy nature of the precipitation,
locally higher amounts exceeding two inches are possible, with
probabilities of exceedance around 50 percent across central and
southern portions of the forecast area. PoPs were lowered
slightly for Saturday to reflect recent guidance trends showing
reduced coverage, and further reductions may be necessary in
subsequent updates.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026

As high pressure slides eastward, southeasterly winds will
increase slightly to around 7-9kts this afternoon. Moisture will
also begin to increase, but VFR conditions will continue. There
will be a low (20%) chance of a shower in the vicinity of MGM
this afternoon, but this probability is too low to mention in the
TAF.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will persist through most of Friday, with isolated
rain chances overnight primarily limited to southern areas. As
southerly flow returns, humidity levels will increase into the
50s and low 60s on Friday. Rain chances increase significantly
Sunday into Monday, with the highest probabilities across
southern and central sections.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  91  69  88 /   0  20  20  50
Anniston    68  90  70  88 /   0  20  20  40
Birmingham  69  90  71  88 /   0  20  20  40
Tuscaloosa  70  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  50
Calera      69  91  70  88 /   0  20  20  40
Auburn      69  88  70  85 /   0  20  20  60
Montgomery  70  91  71  88 /  10  30  20  70
Troy        69  90  70  86 /  10  40  30  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16