748
FXUS64 KBMX 190246
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
946 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 944 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

- There is a (Level 1 to 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening across much of Central Alabama. Damaging
  winds and large hail will be possible.

- There is a (Level 1 to 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms on
  Tuesday evening for portions of Central Alabama. The best
  chances will be generally along and northwest of the Interstate
  85 corridor. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

Very small update this evening to adjust overnight PoPs based on
the current trends, and overall forecast thinking.

/44/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

This afternoon.

A zonal flow prevails aloft over the area with the strong
shortwave that supported the morning activity now over northeast
georgia while another shortwave was moving east over our western
counties. Longwave ridging extended from over Southern Louisiana
northward to over Western Minnesota while a deep trough extended
from over Eastern Washington State southeast to over the Central
Rockies. Weak surface high pressure was analyzed across South
Georgia while a stationary front extended east from surface low
pressure across Western Oklahoma across the Mid-South and into
Southern Tennessee.

Expect ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across portions
of our northwest and west-central counties to continue to move
east, affecting our north-central counties through mid afternoon
and affecting our northeast and east-central counties later in the
afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop in the vicinity of this morning`s convective outflow
boundary across portions of Coosa/Tallapoosa and Chambers Counties
that will move east with time. Elsewhere, Scattered (50-60%)
chances for additional showers and storms will exist across the
northwest half of the area this afternoon with isolated (35-50%)
chances across the southeast portion of the area. Winds will be
from the southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from
the lower 80s in the higher elevations east to readings in the
upper 80s southwest and far south.

Tonight.

Longwave ridging aloft will approach the Mid-South and Lower
Mississippi River Valley Regions from the west while another
shortwave disturbance is progged to develop over North Mississippi
and move east overnight. Surface low pressure will deepen with
time near the Front Range of the Rockies with the warm front
extending southeast across the Ozarks into the Mid-South Region
and further eastward across Southern Tennessee.

At least isolated (20-40%) chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected this evening with the additional disturbance
aloft moving east over the area. Some patchy fog will be possible,
particularly across portions of the central and southern portions
of the area after the heavy rainfall that moved east across the
area. Winds will be from the south at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 60s northeast to readings near 70 far west
and southwest.

Monday.

Longwave ridging will move east over the area during the day on
Monday while the upper trough deepens over the Intermountain West.
Intensifying surface low pressure will continue to deepen across
Kansas and Nebraska while the associated warm front will continue
to extend from the Central Plains southeast across the Mid-South
and Southern Tennessee Valley Regions.

Look for partly cloudy skies south with more clouds north and
northeast through the day. Isolated (10-30%) chances for some
shower and thunderstorm activity will exist generally along and
northeast of the Interstate 22 and U.S. Highway 280 corridors,
closer to the warm front to our northeast. Winds will be from the
southwest at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the upper
80s north to readings around 90 far south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

Forecast thinking is similar for the extended forecast. Biggest
area of concern continues to be activity expected for late Tuesday
ahead of a cold front. System continues to trend in direction to
necessitate the addition of tornadoes to messaging for Tuesday
with all modes of severe possible. Outside of Tuesday, cooler/not
as hot conditions are expected for Thu/Fri. Rain chances return
for next Saturday with weak upper NW flow disturbances possible to
traverse through the flow and low pops across the NRN counties.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

A cold front will approach Central Alabama on Tuesday evening, with
a threat of severe thunderstorms across the region. With dew points
in the low 70s, supercell formation is likely during the afternoon
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee. This is likely to grow
upscale into a more linear storm mode as it passes through Central
Alabama, posing a damaging wind threat. Hail and an isolated tornado
will be possible as well, with a bigger threat of hail initially
with more cellular activity. Current timing is still broad but is
potentially late evening to overnight Tuesday night for much of the
area.

Behind the cold front, the rest of the week will be dry, with
surface high pressure in place. Temperatures will be cooler, with
most areas in the 70s to near 80 Thursday and Friday. Rain chances
will return across the north by the weekend.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025

Conditions will slowly clear, with most terminals returning to VFR
category in the next hour or so. There is a change at some
MVFR/IFR VIS past 19/06z, but confidence was only high enough to
introduce that at KASN and KANB or the time being.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop and move across
Central Alabama through this evening. Minimum RH values on this
afternoon and Monday will be in mid to upper 40 percent range
across portions of the southeast and far southern counties. Dry
conditions return Wednesday after a strong system moves through on
Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  89  67  89 /  20  30  10  30
Anniston    68  89  69  88 /  20  20   0  20
Birmingham  70  89  70  89 /  20  20   0  30
Tuscaloosa  71  89  70  89 /  20  10   0  30
Calera      69  88  70  88 /  20  10   0  20
Auburn      69  88  69  88 /  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  70  91  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
Troy        69  91  68  91 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...02