221
FXUS64 KBRO 021134 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
634 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

-Rain and thunderstorm chances continue today and return for the
 weekend.

-Heat Risk will remain Minor (level 1 out of 4) to Moderate
 (level 2 out of 4) for much of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A frontal boundary will remain draped across Deep South Texas
through Tuesday maintaining rain and thunderstorm chances across
the region. Overnight tonight, chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be generally 30 to 50% before increasing to 60
to 80% by Tuesday afternoon. PWATs will continue to increase
into Tuesday reaching 2 to 2.3 inches. This moisture load will
increase the threat of locally heavy rainfall with any
precipitation that develops, potentially leading to ponding of
water on roadways and low lying areas. Thunderstorms will also be
capable of producing gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning.

Rain chances taper off Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as high
pressure pushes into Deep South Texas with the front finally moving
south of the region. Rainfall chances Wednesday through Friday will
generally be less than 15% as drier air takes hold.

As we head into the weekend, another cold front moving into central
Texas will lead to moisture pooling and an increased chance of
showers and thunderstorms once again for the weekend into the first
part of next week. Saturday rain chances are 30-50% especially
along and east of US 281. Sunday through Tuesday rain chances
increase 40-60%.

Temperatures will remain near to above normal with heat indices
between 100 and 105 through the forecast period. The heat risk
will remain Minor (level 1 out of 4) to Moderate (level 2 out of
4).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Another round of convection is expected this afternoon, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along
a weak frontal boundary. Within these storms, MVFR to IFR ceilings
and visibility will be possible. Otherwise, predominately VFR
conditions are expected to persist through the period.
Light northerly winds are expected this morning, becoming
easterly or northeasterly late this afternoon. Calm winds and VFR
conditions are expected overnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate winds
and seas of 1 to 2 feet are expected through Sunday. A frontal
boundary draped across Deep South Texas will keep rain and
thunderstorm chances across the waters on Tuesday into early
Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will return for the
weekend. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will lead to
localized increased winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  77  94  76 /  70  20  10   0
HARLINGEN               96  74  97  72 /  70  10  10   0
MCALLEN                 98  77 100  77 /  70  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  75 100  74 /  70  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  81  89  80 /  50  20  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  77  92  75 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...60-BE