381
FXUS61 KBTV 231144
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will spread from west to east today producing minor
accumulations, then tonight into Monday morning precipitation
will become terrain-driven in northwesterly upslope flow
supporting more snowfall in the mountains. A warm front will
bring light rain late Tuesday and provide above normal
temperatures into Wednesday. Then a cold front will bring more
showers on Wednesday followed by cooler weather for Thanksgiving
Day, when lake-effect snow and breezy conditions are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 223 AM EST Sunday...A thermally-weak clipper system is
bringing light snow today. Snow will overspread our area this
morning, resulting in light accumulations through noon almost
certainly across northern New York, as far east as our western
Clinton and western Essex County zones. The western Champlain
Valley will be more questionable with the first snow flakes
probably beginning late morning and not accumulating more than a
dusting. During the afternoon, light snow will then begin to
accumulate across Vermont, with measurable snow likely (~50-90%
chance) by 5 PM. Lowest elevations in the Champlain Valley and
Upper Valley have sharply lower probabilities of seeing snow
accumulate.

While no significant changes were made to the snowfall forecast,
it is a pretty challenging one with regards accumulation in
valley locations. With marginal temperatures and daytime
occurrence, precipitation type and amount uncertainty are
noteworthy; light precipitation rates make it difficult to
overcome above freezing surface temperatures. That being said,
predictability of snow versus rain has become increasingly well
defined, with a strong consensus showing surface wet bulb
temperatures rising above freezing in the St. Lawrence Valley by
around noon, supporting all rain after that time following
widespread snow accumulations up to 0.5". In the Champlain
Valley, near Lake Champlain in the very lowest elevations wet
bulb temperatures also point to mainly rain, but with just
slight elevation gain we`ll have more of a rain/snow mix,
beginning as snow and becoming more likely to mix with rain with
time as temperatures slowly increase. Again, precipitation type
looks strongly driven by elevation areawide especially due to
afternoon timing in Vermont, such that a mix of rain and snow
for instance is possible across the Winooski and White River
valleys and near I-91, when precipitation is particularly light,
but would tend to favor snow in steadier precipitation.

Then tonight we`ll switch gears into an upslope snow event as
favorable 310 degree wind direction in the 925-850 millibar
layer will develop on the backside of the clipper with
increasing wind speeds. Magnitudes are a little lighter than
what one would want to see for heavy upslope snow, but moderate
snowfall rates are possible, especially at the summits where
snow ratios will be substantially higher given relatively mild
air. Temperatures in the western slopes will be near freezing
with minimal cool air advection, but blocked flow and very moist
profiles with just enough saturation in the snow growth zone
look favorable for up to a few inches of wet snow accumulation
in localized areas, but mainly under an inch of new snow tonight
is expected. Some snow showers will linger into tomorrow
morning, with otherwise quiet weather as surface and upper level
ridging moves across our region. Low level thicknesses climb
substantially in response and surface temperatures should in
kind rise well above freezing with upper 30s to low 40s common
for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 223 AM EST Sunday...A couple of frontal systems, one
passing to our north and another approaching from the southwest,
will bring abundant cloudiness through this period but it will
mainly be dry through midday Tuesday. During the afternoon
precipitation chances start to increase from southwest to
northeast, although most model guidance shows precipitation
holding off until Tuesday night. Aside from the high terrain and
Lake Champlain, winds will remain fairly light as the pressure
gradient ahead of the incoming low pressure system (roughly a
1005 millibar low against a 1025 millibar high to our east)
looks meager. The weak thermal advection will boost temperatures
a bit from recent days, with highs probably in the low to mid
40s in most spots. Depending on cloud cover thickness Monday
night, low temperatures currently forecast may be a bit too
cold, but morning temperatures are most likely to be near or
below freezing to start the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 AM EST Sunday...Seeing better overall NWP consensus for the
mid-late week period, highlighted by mild temperatures for
Wednesday, followed by cooler and breezy conditions for Thanksgiving
Day with scattered rain/snow showers likely.

Continues to appear that leading shortwave trough and associated
surface warm front bring widespread light rain to the region during
Tuesday night. May see a brief rain/snow mix over Vermont`s
Northeast Kingdom at the onset of precipitation, but not expecting
any snow accumulation as temperatures generally hold in the mid-
upper 30s overnight and into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. PoPs
generally in the 70-80% range with rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.40"
likely in most locations from the Adirondacks eastward across VT
(may see slightly less rainfall in the St. Lawrence Valley based on
current indications).

Best synoptic forcing lifts to our north and east for Wednesday, but
appears low-level moisture/cloud cover will generally hold in place.
Looking for mostly cloudy skies, light to moderate S to SW winds and
high temperatures expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s. If we
reach 50F at BTV, it will be the first 50 degree day since November
8th.

A deep, vertically stacked low pressure system lifts from the
northern Great Lakes region into nrn Ontario/swrn Quebec for
Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Appears we`ll see additional
rain Wednesday night associated with occluded front and associated
frontal rain band. Behind this front, lapse rates steepen with gusty
westerly winds and developing low-level CAA for Thanksgiving Day.
Moisture advection from the Great Lakes will bring periods of snow
showers, likely mixed with rain showers in the lower elevations of
the North Country. May see some accumulation snow across srn St.
Lawrence County into the northern Adirondacks...and across the Green
Mtns...for Thursday and Friday associated with lake effect snow
showers and favorable orographic ascent. Have increased sfc winds
for Thanksgiving Day given better model consensus for strong W-WSW
gradient flow. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph and some gusts 30-35 mph are
possible for Thanksgiving Day. Not expecting any major travel
impacts with temperatures generally in the 30s to lower 40s for the
bulk of the daylight hrs on Thanksgiving, but we continue to ask
that you please follow the latest forecasts, especially if you have
any travel plans during this period. Some localized travel impacts
are likely in the higher elevations and across srn St. Lawrence
County due to lake enhanced snow shower activity. Those conditions
will persist into Thursday night/Friday, with gradually cooling
temperatures that will be somewhat more conducive for snow
accumulation late in the forecast period. Should see high pressure
bringing snow showers to an end Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Mainly VFR early this morning with
increasing mid-high level cloud cover from west to east and
light wind conditions. Approaching shortwave trough from the
Great Lakes region will bring periods of light snow, starting at
SLK/MSS by 13-14Z, and across the Vermont TAF sites after
14Z. Only light snow accumulation is expected...generally a
coating to 0.5", but vsby may occasionally drop to 1-2SM range
this afternoon into the early evening hours. Expect a mix or
transition to rain at KMSS this aftn with some warmer air
reaching the St. Lawrence Valley on southwesterly flow.
Temperatures will also get above freezing at BTV by 16-17Z,
which will limit accumulation on paved surfaces. Winds overall
generally light, mainly S to SW at 5-9kt during the late morning
through afternoon period and then becoming light nwly after
sunset with trough passage. Orographic snow showers will
continue during Sunday night, with 3-5SM -SHSN possible at
KEFK/KMPV and KSLK.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Chance
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Banacos
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV