963
FXUS61 KBTV 171737
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
137 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat will increase through Thursday with daily chances of
afternoon thunderstorms and periods of moderate to heavy rain
showers. A cold front moving through the region on Thursday
will bring increased chances of stronger storms that could
produce damaging winds and downpours potentially leading to
localized flash flooding. Unsettled conditions will linger into
the weekend before high pressure builds over the eastern U.S.
bringing the potential for dangerous heat next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 127 PM EDT Tuesday...The current forecast remains in good
shape, with just a few minor adjustments made to better reflect
the current showers across southern Vermont. Temperatures this
afternoon have generally warmed into the 70s, although locations
east of the Green Mountains have only warmed into the 60s.

Previous Discussion...A quasi- stationary frontal boundary
remains draped over portions of the Northeast. This will provide
the focal point for rain today, especially across southern and
eastern Vermont as a trough moves along the boundary. A few
thunderstorms will be possible mainly across northern New York
and the northern Champlain Valley this afternoon and evening.
Behind the trough the surface boundary will linger and become
the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
PWATs will be rising over 1" with some areas exceeding 1.5-2
inches suggesting potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with
any thunderstorms Wednesday. Stronger storms are not out of the
question Wednesday with CAPE ranging 500-1250J/kg, especially
over northern New York as a trough drops out of Canada over the
afternoon hours. This could be a decent trigger for
multicellular clusters and possibly a line of storms to develop.
Apparent temperatures will be climbing with dewpoints rising
Wednesday displacing recent dry air. Highs will be rising from
the mid/upper 70s to near 80 today into the low/mid 80s for
Wednesday pushing apparent temperatures close to 90 degrees by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Warm and humid conditions will persist
Wednesday night as 850mb temperatures increase by a couple degrees C
throughout the course of the night. Precipitable water values of
1.40-2.00 inches are expected across the forecast area as well. This
will result in increased cloud cover by early Thursday morning as
well as additional showers and thunderstorms, potentially heavy at
times, riding the upper level ridge into northern New York and
eventually northern Vermont. Any heavier shower or thunderstorm will
prime the soil for additional precipitation Thursday to be
potentially hazardous. These warm, humid conditions will also result
in one of the warmest nights of the week as lows hover around the
60s and lower 70s and dew points in the 60s.

An upper level trough and associated cold front are expected to
impact the region on Thursday, meeting an air mass that`s primed
with heat, humidity, and instability. 925mb temperatures are modeled
in the 20-27 C range while surface highs are forecast in the upper
70s and 80s F and models project Pwats approaching two inches for
some. Surface CAPE values are expected to be around 1500-2000 J/kg
(isolated up to 2500 J/kg) and 6km bulk shear around 40-60 knots.
Some areas could even have 60-80 knots of bulk shear, though the
main caveat is that shear seems to manifest after the period of most
favorable instability, arriving slightly late to the event for
maximum severe potential to develop. Regardless, warm cloud layers
are projected around 10,500 feet, paired with a low level jet 30-40
knots paired with the aforementioned pwat values could indicate
any showers or thunderstorms will be heavy raining in nature.
The Weather Prediction Center continues to place our entire
forecast area in a Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall,
indicating there`s at least a 5% chance of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance in or around a given location.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Temperatures and humidity will take a
brief dip following Thursday`s activity with Friday`s highs in the
70s and lows both Thursday night and Friday night in the upper 40s
to lower 60s. A shortwave could trigger some scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday, then again Saturday night. Next week, strong
ridging still looks good to build across the mid-Atlantic buoying
temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Monday. With lows
in the mid 60s to lower 70s returning as well, the potential
for heat stress and heat related illnesses will be increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions
currently prevail across the region, with some light showers
across southern Vermont. Ceilings are expected to lower
throughout the overnight hours, with increasing cloud cover
expected to slowly overspread the area. While most terminals
will remain MVFR, some terminals such as KMPV and KRUT will
likely see IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings develop. Some
additional showers will be possible this evening, before
tapering off towards tomorrow. Towards 15Z tomorrow all
terminals should begin to improve towards MVFR. Winds generally
remain southerly, with gusty winds in the Champlain Valley.
Gusts should subside later this evening, although winds look to
remain 8 to 12 knots overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer