464
FXUS61 KBUF 121840
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect rain and wet snow focused northeast of both lakes
earlier in the day will continue to change over to rain through the
course of the afternoon. Lake effect precipitation will continue
Thursday and into Friday morning, though milder temperatures will
allow for mostly plain rain. A brief period of areawide dry weather
expected early this weekend before unsettled weather returns by the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures aloft will continue to warm this afternoon, allowing
for wet snow to gradually change over to plain rain across the
entire area. Showers both rain and snow will continue off the lakes
in response to a mid-level shortwave trough moving through the
region.

Off Lake Erie, lake effect rain/snow will change to all rain while
also shifting southward through the afternoon. Off Lake Ontario, a
band of lake effect rain/snow will settle south to the Tug through
the afternoon. Higher terrain snow will change over to rain through
the afternoon and into the evening. A slushy inch or two may be
possible before the changeover to rain occurs for the higher
terrain.

In the wake of the shortwave and as a strong ridge builds into the
Mississippi Valley, the flow will become more west-northwesterly
this evening and into tonight. The lake response will continue off
the lakes, especially southeast of Lake Ontario where deeper
synoptic moisture will remain. Upstream connections to Georgian Bay
and Lake Huron could bring additional showers to the rest of the
area. 850mb temps will remain around the -5C range, marginal enough
for the Lake Plains to continue seeing rain while wet snow mixes in
at the higher elevations. A slushy inch or so of snow could
accumulate across the hilltops of the Southern Tier and the Tug
Hill/Western Dacks.

As the larger and persistent trough over the region starts to shift
east, another shortwave trough will dig southeast across the Great
Lakes on Thursday morning. This will cause showers to continue
across much of the area, especially east/southeast of both Lake Erie
& Ontario with lake enhancement/effect expected.  Precipitation will
linger for most of the day on Thursday, with some decreasing spatial
coverage for areas south of Lake Ontario by the late afternoon. With
slightly warmer temperatures compared to earlier in the week, most
of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain. Mixing with and
changing to snow is expected across the higher elevations for
Thursday. Snowfall amounts of an inch or two will be possible for
areas of the higher terrain, especially across the Tug Hill.

Temperatures this afternoon and on Thursday will reach the mid 30s
to mid 40s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations.
Overnight lows tonight will cool to the upper 20s to mid 30s from
the higher terrain to the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow will continue Thursday night and Friday, with a
shortwave rounding the back side of a mid level low maintaining
chances for precipitation through this period.

Cooler temperatures will be found to the east, with lake response
most likely off Lake Ontario in the form of cold rain or snow.
Cyclonic flow will continue chances for light wintry mix east of
Lake Ontario Thursday night.

Surface high pressure will build towards our region Friday and
Friday night bringing an end to precipitation across our region.

Temperatures will remain near normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An amplified pattern to start this period will be impinged upon by
the northern branch of the jet stream, allowing the next storm
system to bear down upon our region this weekend.

There are still model differences with the timing of this shortwave
in the northern jet, but the model trend has been faster with warm
frontal rain later Saturday and into Saturday night (that may start
as freezing rain east of Lake Ontario) to be followed by rain
showers Sunday that will transition to wet snow through the
afternoon and evening hours with strong cold air advection aloft.
This faster timing, coupled with the warm nose aloft will likely
make Saturday the warmer day now...with lower 50s across much of
WNY, while lower 40s remain east of Lake Ontario.

Depending upon how fast the cold air with the upper level closed low
exits our region to start next week, a period lake effect snow or
mixed lake effect precipitation could linger downwind of the lakes
Monday with a southern stream system bringing back chances for
precipitation by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Uncertainty
remains high for the later portion of this forecast period as a
slower exit of this upper level trough Monday may linger lake effect
response longer, while also deflecting the southern stream shortwave
to our south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mixture of IFR and MVFR conditions (mainly CIGs) will prevail this
afternoon as lake showers continue off of both lakes. There may be
some brief improvements to VFR cigs at times between lower lake
clouds. East of Lake Ontario, precipitation is in the form of lower
elevation rain and higher elevations snow. East of Lake Erie
precipitation has changed to mainly rain. Reductions is VSBY to MVFR
and brief IFR will be possible in heavier rain showers at times, but
should be limited in duration.

Tonight, the lake effect precip will settle east-southeast of the
lakes, falling as rain across the Lake Plains (MVFR cigs/vsbys) with
wet snow on the higher elevations (IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys). The
main lake effect areas are expected to remain away from the TAF
sites, though chances for periodic impacts will be highest for KROC
and KJHW.

Thursday, a mixture of MVFR and IFR conditions east and southeast of
the lakes as additional lake enhanced/effect showers continue
through most of the day. Some higher terrain snow is possible,
causing further VSBY reductions.

Outlook...

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
freezing rain east of Lake Ontario at onset.

Monday...A mixture of MVFR/IFR with a potential for rain and snow
showers off the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A deepening surface low will meander across Newfoundland through the
day today as a much weaker wave of low pressure moves across the
Great Lakes. With a cold airmass remaining overhead, this will cause
gusty southwest to west winds to continue on the lakes through the
day before turning west-northwesterly tonight. Long duration SCAs
remain in place elsewhere as outlined below.

Waves are expected to remain 4 feet and greater through Thursday
evening on the eastern Great Lakes, and not until Friday when
surface high pressure approaches the lower Great Lakes will winds
and waves briefly fall below small craft conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP/SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...PP/SW
MARINE...PP/SW/Thomas