691
FXUS61 KBUF 142349
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
749 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will be possible at times from the Southern Tier
northeastward to interior portions of the North Country...with dry
and uneventful weather otherwise expected through Monday. A warm
front will move northward Tuesday...ushering in warmer and
increasingly unsettled conditions as we push through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some measure of clearing has continued to take place across the S.
Tier and a small portion of the western Finger Lake region this
evening. That said...nocturnal cooling/moistening within the pool of
lingering low level moisture in the vicinity/south of the inverted
trough will likely result in the lower clouds expanding back
somewhat northwestward again tonight...with some lower stratus/areas
of fog expected to redevelop across the higher terrain...especially
across portions of the S. Tier where it rained the other night and
this morning.

On Sunday...the lower clouds should then tend to thin and
lift from northwest to southeast again with renewed diurnal heating
and mixing. While chances are `low`, 30% or less, there will be a
chance of a stray shower during peak heating hours. Overall...not
too bad of a day with highs found in the upper 60s (less sunshine)
to low and mid 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian sourced high pressure will slowly loosen its grip on our
region this period as it migrates eastward, extending from Quebec to
the northwestern Atlantic by Tuesday before moving entirely offshore
Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave crossing into the
Ohio Valley from the central Mississippi Valley will cause a stalled
frontal boundary in the region to begin lifting back northwards
towards the eastern Great Lakes as a warm front. While stronger
forcing for showers and thunderstorms won`t arrive until the
shortwave and warm front move in on Tuesday, we may contend with
some spotty light showers at times through Monday night with weak
isentropic lift and weak low-level convergence in the vicinity. NBM
is much drier than global ensemble guidance for Monday in
particular, with the former showing null QPF and the latter (mainly
the GEFS/ENS) showing 60-80% for measurable rainfall over our
region. Have hedged above NBM though still only spotty light QPF
amounts given the nebulous forcing in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A phasing shortwave pattern will carve out a deeper longwave trough
across the Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. A strengthening
wave of sfc low pressure ahead of this trough will track northeast
from the Upper Midwest to Quebec in tandem. This will lift the
previously stalled frontal boundary even further north and firmly
place the forecast area in the system`s warm sector, with much more
summer-like air advecting into the region. The increased heat,
humidity, and instability will be accompanied by stronger LLJ
forcing to also increase chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the area. Details remain murky at this range, mainly in
regards to track of the low and timing of the system`s cold front,
but the general setup could be supportive of heavy rainfall and more
robust convection should all the parameters favorably align.

Overall activity should begin to wind down Thursday night, though
could be some lingering showers as the upstream trough looks to hang
back quite a bit and not cross the region until later Friday. There
are indications that much stronger ridging (and thus warmer and
drier weather) may build across the central/eastern CONUS over the
weekend, though confidence is low in this being preceded by some
"ridge runner" shower/tstorm activity Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The presence of the inverted trough and lingering low level moisture
along and to its south will allow for a mixture of ceilings this
evening.

Tonight....nocturnal cooling/moistening of the lower levels again
will take place...with areas of low stratus and fog expected to
redevelop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes. Further north and west conditions should remain VFR...though
some lower-end VFR ceilings will probably still make it into KBUF-
KROC-KART for at least a time.

On Sunday renewed diurnal heating and mixing should then result in
improvement to higher-end MVFR/lower-end VFR across the Southern
Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes...with VFR conditions
prevailing elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially southern portions of the area.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slide from Quebec to offshore of the Canadian
Maritimes through the rest of the weekend...while several waves of
low pressure ripple along a stalled out frontal zone across Ohio and
Pennsylvania. The pressure gradient between these features will
maintain northeasterly winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a
moderate chop on both lakes.

As the high shifts further eastward Sunday night and Monday...winds
will veer southeasterly and weaken on both Lakes. The weakening and
offshore flow component will allow waves to subside, with little to
no chop expected for the start of the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...AR/JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR/JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA