Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
691 FXUS62 KCAE 300024 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 824 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers possible into Saturday morning and through the day. Slight chances for rain may creep into the southern part of the area Sunday, but the day is trending drier. A return of cooler and mostly dry weather is expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Increasing moisture tonight with isolated showers or sprinkles possible in the CSRA early Saturday morning. An upper level trough was noted on WV imagery sinking southeastward into western KY/TN. This trough will continue to move toward the region overnight reaching the forecast area around 12z Saturday. Low level flow ahead of this feature will become southeasterly and support moisture advection into the area with PWATs rising to around 1.7-1.8 inches in the CSRA with a gradient to lower values further north. Some isolated showers or sprinkles will be possible late tonight into Saturday morning as some weak isentropic lift interacts with the increasing moisture but no significant rainfall expected. Overnight lows should be slightly warmer than last night but still below normal in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Below normal temperatures continue. - Scattered showers and isolated storms Saturday. Increasing isentropic lift Saturday morning with a shortwave pushing through the area will lead to scattered showers developing near the southern portion of the forecast area. The limiting factor will be how far north the deep moisture can reach into the area. HREF members generally show a large spread in the northward extent. Scattered showers will be most likely in the Central Savannah River Area and areas south of I-20 with lower probabilities the farther north. While an isolated storm remains possible, HREF mean indicates instability will be weak. Showers will begin in the west and then shift to the east and as the shortwave shifts offshore, precip chances expected to decrease into Saturday night. Cooler conditions expected, especially in the CSRA where low clouds and showers will be the most likely with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure pushing into the Great Lakes will push a cold front through the area Sunday. This will lead to decreasing PWATs once again across the area with the trend among ensembles of drier weather for Sunday with GEFS mean PWATs about one standard deviation below normal. Blended guidance as a result has decreased pops for Sunday with most of the area expected to stay dry with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows Sunday night in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Cool weather persists through the long term. - Scattered showers and isolated storms possible by midweek. Ensemble mean 500mb pattern continues to favor troughing over the eastern portion of the US through next week. This will continue to lead to below average temperatures with blended guidance showing limited spread in temperature guidance through at least midweek. By the second half of next week, potential for a few disturbances to drop into the central US and approach the forecast area. This will lead to increasing chances for rain but also likely reinforce the cooler weather for our first meteorological fall, which begins on Labor Day this year. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions remain expected overnight with restrictions possible Saturday morning, mainly near AGS/DNL. Cumulus continues to diminish this evening, though a batch of mid level clouds are seen toward AGS/DNL/OGB where greater moisture resides. Overnight, winds become light to calm and mid level cloud cover likely increases ahead of an upper disturbance and surface front. The area likely stays dry overnight but near daybreak Saturday high res models continue to show some showers pushing in near AGS/DNL and possibly OGB. Due to this, I have included a TEMPO group for AGS and DNL starting at 12z for this activity while adding a PROB30 group for OGB where uncertainty is a bit higher. The NBM continues to show MVFR ceilings associated with this activity overspreading the Augusta terminals but GLAMP and HRRR guidance is a bit more optimistic. With increasing low level moisture this appears possible and thus I have maintained these ceilings at AGS/DNL. It is possible some of these lower ceilings spreads toward OGB, but confidence is not high. The remainder of the TAF period see`s some isolated showers that wane toward the late afternoon and ceilings that generally remain VFR with 5-7 kt winds out of the southeast to east. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions will be possible during the early morning hours due to stratus or fog this weekend and into next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$