Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
739 FXUS64 KCRP 261828 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas through the middle of next week. - Increasing rain chances by mid-week with heavy rainfall possible the latter part of next week. - Minor coastal flooding possible starting early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Heat remains a concern through the first half of the week with above normal temperatures continuing under a persistent ridge of high pressure. Hopefully, we will see some relief from the heat beginning Wednesday or Thursday when the ridge is progged to shift east as a long wave trough digs across the western U.S. This will allow increasing moisture to advect across S TX. The moisture combined with embedded short waves ahead of the main long wave trough, will be conducive for convective development. If a cold front can make it to S TX Wed/Thu, it will provide strong low level convergence and increase the rain chances even higher with 20-50% chance Wednesday and 50-80% Thursday with the highest chances across the Victoria Crossroads. Plus, PWATs are forecast to increase to 2.2-2.4 inches. This is almost 2 standard deviations above normal and is conducive for heavy rainfall/localized flooding. However, confidence remains low that a cold front will reach S TX. Latest models show the front moving into Central Texas and remaining north of S TX. Convection that develops over the Hill Country may produce an outflow boundary (mimicking a cold front) which could become the focus for heavier rain in S TX. If any of these features don`t reach S TX, rain chances may end up being much lower along with warmer temperatures the latter part of the upcoming week. Given we are still 5+ days out, and models have been somewhat consistent with increased rain chances, will maintain the higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures for now. As for minor coastal flooding, the P-ETSS indicates tide levels up to 1.8 feet above MSL for Tue-Wed during times of high tide. There is low confidence that water will reach the dunes due to light onshore winds through Tuesday, 15-25 knots from the south mid-week, swell periods of 7 seconds or less, and the moon phase will be approaching the 3rd quarter. None of which are favorable for tidal overflow. Will continue to monitor trends for any changes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 VFR conditions expected to prevail through most of the TAF cycle. Brief MVFR VSBY and/or CIGs will be possible after 09Z through mid morning Sunday. Winds will remain light, with a mainly east to southeast direction. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow is expected to persist, along with seas between 2-3 feet, through Tuesday. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) by mid-week as low pressure deepens over West Texas and a cold front approaches the Hill Country. Small Craft Advisories may be needed by Wednesday. Low to very low rain chances continue through Tuesday, then increase to a medium chance Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 72 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 92 79 91 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 90 81 89 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...TE/81