823
FXUS63 KDDC 120512
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1112 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer temperatures today with widespread highs in the
  70s and places out west over 80 degrees

- Elevated to Near-Critical fire weather conditions expected to
  continue over the next few hours west of highway 83 before
  winds weaken

- A low pressure system will approach the Central and Southern
  Plains late this weekend, however large uncertainties continue
  in the forecast for precipitation across our southwest Kansas
  region

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The synoptic pattern over the CONUS continues to be headlined by a
very deep upper-level trough over the northeastern portion of
the United States. Other than that, there is not a dominating
system over the CWA. Some ridging is building into the rockies,
but otherwise it is a quieter pattern aloft. Ensembles have this
ridging continuing to build and eventually have a stronger
influence towards western Kansas.

Aided by some strong downslope, temperatures have quickly recovered
from the cooler weekend with temperatures already into the 70s
across SW Kansas. Some areas near the KS/CO border are
surpassing 80 degrees and more of far SW Kansas is expected to
follow today. Relative humidities have dropped to 15% or below
along highway 83 and westward. Winds have remained below the
threshold for a Red Flag Warning. Even if the winds strengthen
and reach criteria for a brief period, the forecast continues to
be that winds will not meet criteria for the 3 hour duration of
a Red Flag. Around 01Z, winds are forecast to weaken
significantly and move to a primarily light and variable regime.
As a result, the day remains without a headline. Even with
continued low relative humidities over the next few days,
lighter winds will help mitigate the risk.

Through Friday, the entirety of the area is at a near 0% probability
for precipitation. The marginal fire weather risk is the only
foreseeable concern. Highs are forecast to continue to be
warmer than average with this meteorological regime in the low-
to-mid 70s. The more interesting, and more uncertain, aspect of
the forecast is as the benign pattern aloft breaks down and wet
weather chances return this weekend. Ensembles have a mid/upper-
level low developing in the eastern Pacific. By Sunday,
precipitation chances rise to around 20% along the southern half
of the forecast region. Into Monday, models have widespread
rain chances at around 25-50%. Early glimpses are trending
towards there not being enough convective ingredients for severe
weather to develop. Uncertainty remains high on the specifics.
Different long range models have distinct differences and
ensembles do not hold a great amount of temporal consistency.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Aviation weather will remain tranquil through this period with
widespread VFR flight category continuing. Light and variable
winds tonight into early Wednesday will become southerly around
12 knots later in the day.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Umscheid