200
FXUS63 KDDC 111640
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1040 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, near-record temperatures with widespread highs in the
  lower to mid 70s this afternoon.

- Arctic air mass will impact Kansas the latter half of the
  weekend, and lows Sunday morning likely in the lower teens (if
  not colder)

- The dry pattern will continue through the end of the 7-day
  period, and temperatures will warm right back up as downslope
  winds return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A significant warm-up is still on track for this afternoon as
classic downslope conditions maximize this morning through the
afternoon. Our latest forecast will follow 75th to 90th percentile
temperatures this afternoon, resulting in highs well into the 70s,
especially farther southwest toward Elkhart. It would not be
surprising if Elkhart reached 80 today. As far as records are
concerned, the DDC record for today is 78 degrees and our latest
forecast will call for 73, so the likelihood if this record being
reached is fairly low. The GCK airport record is only 69, since the
airport period of record only goes back to 1948. A fairly deep
surface low will move east-southeast across Nebraska, and our winds
will become northerly late tonight. A rather massive arctic air mass
awaits up north, ready to be unleashed southward toward Kansas,
although not until the weekend.

The brief period of north winds on Friday will become southeasterly
Friday Night/early Saturday as another surface low develops along
the arctic front over southeastern Wyoming. The second, weaker
surface low will shift southward into West Texas by Saturday
evening, and the flood of arctic air will then push into Kansas. The
timing of this initial arctic air cold advection is still somewhat
in question, and for now, our hourly temperature forecast for
Saturday will still follow a standard diurnal rise, but if the front
arrives faster (which usually happens), then the Saturday highs will
occur early in the day with falling afternoon temperatures through
the 40s and eventually 30s. Sunday will be the coldest day for our
forecast area of southwest Kansas, but this arctic air mass will
skirt our area with the core of the coldest air pushing across the
lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valley. Nevertheless, Sunday
morning temperatures should be quite cold with lows well down into
the teens. Latest NBM 10th percentile lows are 8 to 10 degrees for
much of the forecast area Sunday morning, and it is possible we will
see official lows for Sunday morning trended downward to these
current 10th percentile values. Given the very cold start early
Sunday morning, it will be a struggle for temperatures to rise much
above 32F. During the day Sunday, though, the winds will quickly
turn around to the south again and much warmer downslope air will
impinge on southwest Kansas again as the arctic air mass loses its
grip on southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail with some high clouds through
tonight. Winds will be from the west this afternoon, becoming
light this evening, then shifting to the north behind a weak cold
front overnight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42