179
FXUS63 KDDC 011747
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1247 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood potential continues this afternoon with ongoing
  showers and thunderstorms producing high rain rates finally
  ending west to east later this evening.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures likely tonight and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low transitioning east through
the high plains of western Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and
Texas. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary attendant to a
low in extreme southwest Kansas extends northeast into southeast
Nebraska.

Based on radar trends/CAMs, ongoing showers/thunderstorms will continue
to develop southward across much of southwest Kansas this afternoon,
then end west to east later this evening as the SREF indicates a closed
upper low opening up as it begins to accelerate eastward through the
Central Plains tonight, giving way to a more zonal flow aloft across
the Western High Plains Friday. The main focus the next several hours
will be for possible flash flooding as already saturated ground from
prolonged rainfall the previous day lends to a heightened flooding
potential through early evening. This is supported with most models
showing high QPF signals as well as SPC Mesoanalysis indicating PW
values nearing 1.5 inches. A much drier pattern is forecast to take
hold across the region through the weekend as a developing upper level
ridge begins to amplify across the Intermountain West while much drier
air in the lower/mid-levels dominates the Western High Plains.

The coolest temperatures of the season are likely tonight as cooler
air begins to spill into western Kansas behind an advancing cold front,
dropping H85 temperatures below 10C across much of southwest Kansas
by daybreak Friday. According to the latest HREF, there is a better
than 90% probability of temperatures slipping below 50F in west central
Kansas into central Kansas in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to a 50-70%
probability of temperatures dropping below 55F in south central Kansas.
So, look for lows down into the 40s(F) northwest to the lower 50s(F)
southeast. For a change, unseasonably cool temperatures are forecast
Friday as departing surface high pressure through the Upper Midwest
reinforces a cooler air mass in place across the high plains of western
Kansas within a northeastly upslope flow, holding H85 temperatures
down around 10-12C. With the HREF painting a widespread 90% probability
of temperatures exceeding 60F, expect afternoon highs up into the
60s(F) with the warmest highs in south central Kansas where there
is a 80-90% probability of temperatures topping 65F. Rebounding
temperatures are to be expected Saturday as surface high pressure
continues to push farther off to the east through the Great Lakes
while lee side troughing redevelops in eastern Colorado, returning
southerlies to western Kansas. This will tap into slightly warmer
air to our south, helping push H85 temperatures above 13-15C. Under
ample sunshine, expect more seasonable temperatures with fairly
widespread 70s(F) for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Ongoing showers/thunderstorms are expected to further develop
southward across west central Kansas into southwest Kansas through
late afternoon while individual cells track westward on the back
side of a closed upper low shifting east through central Kansas into
eastern Kansas, affecting the vicinity of KHYS, KGCK, and possibly
KDDC. Otherwise, prevailing low level stratus stretching from central
Kansas southwestward into extreme southwest Kansas in vicinity of
a stalled frontal boundary attendant to a surface low is expected
to begin spreading southeast this afternoon as the boundary finally
nudges southeast into northwest Oklahoma, allowing MVFR/IFR cigs
to persist/redevelop in vicinity of all TAF sites through late
evening. Northeast winds around 20 to 30kt with gusts up to 40kt
are forecast to initially develop northwest to southeast generally
after 18-20Z this afternoon as the aforementioned surface low slides
southeast into western Oklahoma, then begins to gradually slacken
off through tonight as surface high pressure slides southeast out
of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson