003
FXUS63 KDDC 101648
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1048 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures today followed by a significant warmup on
  Thursday.

- Limited to isolated elevated fire weather conditions may exist
  Thursday west of a Hugoton to Ulysses line Thursday afternoon.

- The roller coaster of temperatures will continue into the
  weekend. Another cold front will cross the Central Plains on
  Thursday night bringing another cool down to southwest Kansas
  on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

As of 2am this Wednesday morning a cold front was exiting
southern Kansas. Behind this cold front through mid morning the
potential will exist for gusty north winds of 15 to 25 mph with
higher gusts, especially along and east of highway 183 where a
50 knot 850mb jet will be located early this Wednesday morning.
These windy conditions will gradually subside through the day as
an area of high pressure at the surface builds in from the
northwest. These gusty north winds earlier this morning were
ushering in some cooler, more seasonable air back into western
Kansas today. Based on the cooling trend forecast in the short
term models of the boundary layer and 850mb temperatures today,
along with the NBM guidance spread from the 25th to 75th
percentile being less than 4F, it appears the high temperatures
will likely (>80% confidence) range from the low to mid 50s.


What cooler air that does return on Wednesday to southwest
Kansas early today will quickly get shunted east tonight as
improving downslope flow develops ahead of our next northern
branch upper level trough that will be exiting southwest Canada
and moving into the northern plains as the upper ridge over the
west coast amplifies. The short term ensemble 850mb mean
temperatures once again has 850mb temperatures at 15C or greater
which places this in the +95 percentile for this time of year.
Based on this and the multiple run consistency of this occurring
there is no reason not to go with highs on Thursday at least as
warm as what the NBM guidance currently has forecasts. Highs in
the upper 60s to near 75. Enjoy Thursday if you can because
another cold front will bring some colder air back to southwest
Kansas by Friday.

This unseasonably warm air mass on Thursday will increase fire
weather conditions across extreme southwest Kansas. Latest short
term model ensembles currently show a 30-50% chance that
afternoon relative humidity will drop below 20% across Johnson,
and Morton Counties. However, winds are expected to average 10
to 20 mph. These conditions will support limited to isolated
elevated fire weather conditions west of a line from Ulysses to
Hugoton.

The next cold front that will impact southwest Kansas arrives
late Thursday night. Similar to Tuesday, expect a period of
gusty winds immediately behind the front. While models still
agree on the fronts timing, there is a trend now towards less
cold air reaching southwest Kansas due to a more easterly track
of the coldest air crossing the Northern Plains given a more
progressive upper ridge crossing the Western United States and
better downslope flow east of the Rockies. The coldest
conditions are now expected to track mainly east of the Hays,
Larned, and Coldwater areas. Despite the moderating trend,
temperatures will still be noticeably colder on Friday compared
to Thursday, especially northeast of Dodge City, where highs
are forecast only in the 40s. Also northeast of Dodge City
given the cold air advection combined with persistent gusty
north winds and potential cloud cover there is a chance (20-30%)
that highs may struggle to reach the lower 40s.

A brief warming trend may offer some relief on Saturday but
another shot of colder air will take aim on southwest Kansas on
Sunday as another upper- level trough dives out of Canada and
settles over the northeast United States.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Thursday. Light westerly winds through late afternoon are
expected to turn southwesterly generally after 23-01Z this
evening as surface high pressure slides southeastward out of
the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson