447
FXUS63 KDDC 070850
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds and cold air will try to erode from southwest to
  northeast today across southwest Kansas. This will result
  afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 50s near the
  Colorado border to the mid 30s in the Hays and Larned areas.

- Fire Weather Risk will be on the increase Monday and Tuesday.

- Unseasonably warm Temperatures return early this week. Highs
  around 20 degrees above the seasonal normals for this time of
  year will be possible on Tuesday.

- Next significant shot of colder air will take aim on southwest
  Kansas Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Light rain/sprinkles developed earlier tonight as an upper
level trough moved across southwest Kansas. As of 2am this
trough was moving out of the area allowing colder air and low
clouds to move into the region.

Short term models remain in agreement today with the
reinforcing shot of colder air this morning will stall across
southwest Kansas before noon. This unseasonably cold air will
then be quickly pushed eastward this afternoon following the
passage of a shortwave trough and improving downslope flow. This
will create a temperature gradient this afternoon, with highs
ranging from near 50 degrees along the Colorado border near
Elkhart to the mid 30s in the Larned and Hays areas. If the low
clouds are able to erode quicker than currently expected the
highs may end up being several degrees warmer.

Fire weather risks will be on the increase early next week.
This cold air will quickly retreat from west to east tonight and
Monday as downslope flow continues to improve and unseasonably
warm 850mb temperatures spread across western Kansas. This
improving downslope flow will not only lead to a rapid warmup
early next week but will also likely cause gusty south southwest
winds, given the deepening surface pressures over eastern
Colorado. Based on model trends over the past few days, the
potential for increasing winds and warm/dry conditions means the
fire weather risk will be rising across southwest Kansas with
the higher risk being on Tuesday. Currently the latest ensemble
clusters and NBM guidance only suggest an elevated risk for fire
weather by Tuesday. However, we will be closely monitoring
this, given the improving downslope flow and potential for deep
mixing across western Kansas on Tuesday. Deep mixing supports
lower dew points and stronger winds reaching the surface. This,
combined with improving downslope flow, would favor lower
afternoon humidity values and stronger winds than what the NBM
currently forecasts. Confidence in this scenario is medium-high
(60-70%). Therefore, despite the risk level only being
highlighted as elevated, it would be wise to prepare for higher
fire weather risks on Tuesday.

A significant warmup is also expected early next week. Short
term models and ensemble clusters suggest 850mb temperatures
will quickly warm to >12C by Tuesday afternoon. This is greater
than the 90% percentile of the model climatology for this time
of year. Given this unseasonably warm temperatures forecast
across western Kansas combined with downslope flowtemperatures
often end up being warmer than NBM guidance. Currently the
forecast high temperatures are already about 15 degrees warmer
than seasonal normals. However, highs could reach the 90-95%
range, meaning Tuesday afternoon highs might be at least 20
degrees above seasonal temperatures. Despite this possible
warmup, these highs are expected to fall short by a few degrees
of the record highs for December 9th (Dodge City: 75F, Garden
City: 77F, Medicine Lodge: 74F).

These warm and dry conditions will precede a cold front mid
week. An upper level trough will cross the central United States
which will allow the front to move across the Central Plains.
Due to the progressive nature of this system mid week, the cold
frontal passage is expected to be dry, with limited colder air
reaching southwest Kansas. Following the cold frontal passage
temperatures will drop by about 10 to 15 degrees. Even with this
drop, mid week temperatures will remain at or above seasonal
normals.

This first cold front passage mid week will be followed by a
more significant one late this week as a surge of arctic air
moves south across the Central Plains. There is still
uncertainty about how cold this air mass will be late
week/early next weekend due to the upper ridge and the quick
development of downslope flow. Despite this uncertainty on
the magnitude of this cold air...all ensemble clusters do agree
that afternoon temperatures will be unseasonably cold
temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday. Current forecasts
suggest high temperatures only in the 30s on Friday with highs
ranging from 35 to near 45 on Saturday. This is currently the
most likely solution but there is a low probability (less than
25%) that some areas may not warm much higher than the mid 20s
on Friday and around 30 on Saturday, with single digit lows
possible. Anyone with plans Friday or Saturday should monitor
this next shot of cold air and be prepared.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Short term models appear to be in good agreement with a
reinforcement of colder air invading southwest Kansas between
03Z and 12Z Sunday. As the colder air moves in...an area of low
clouds (500 to 1000 ft AGL) will develop along with isolated
patchy fog (3-5sm br). These low clouds and patchy fog will
gradually give way to VFR conditions between 15Z and 18Z today
(Sunday). The north winds will decrease to 10 knots or less
after 15Z, and then gradually veer to the east southeast early
this evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert