Area Forecast Discussion
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687
FXUS64 KEPZ 091724
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 - Drier and somewhat breezy conditions through Friday.

 - Remnant tropical moisture will flow over the area Saturday
   through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain
   threat will be favored in southern and western areas with
   flooding possible.

 - Temperatures will be near or above normal through Saturday,
   then cooling early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Models continue to have agreement of a trough/ridge/trough pattern
for much of the U.S. through the forecast period. The ridge will
remain just off to our east with a couple of troughs/upper lows
moving into the Pacific Coast. There are 2 tropical systems
Priscilla and possibly Raymond which will get picked up in this
pattern and brought up into the region bringing the threat for
heavy rain.

The period will start out fairly quiet with just a few showers
mainly over the mountains before the tropical moisture moves in.
Temperatures will continue warming up above normal through Friday
with highs in the 80s for the lowlands with occasional breezy
east-southeast winds.

As we go into the weekend, the remnants of Priscilla will get
drawn north into AZ and it looks like most of this moisture will
be north of us, there will still be some moving into the west by
Sat afternoon as trough to the west moves into the Great Basin.
There will not be much instability any day, but any convection
that can develop will be very efficient rain producers with PW`s
approaching 1.5" at times which is very high for early/mid Oct.
Precip will spread east Sat night then with SSW to SW flow
persisting rain chances will continue into early next week. The
moisture from what could develop into Raymond moves in for
Sun/Mon. There has been a downtrend in the operational GFS for
total QPF amounts, but the ensemble mean is up slightly for Sat-
Tue. At this point it`s hard to pinpoint a period of greatest
flooding threat, but it`s more likely going to be Sun/Mon as soils
saturate. NBM PoPs generally high chance to low likely and didn`t
make many changes. The way the pattern seems to be developing, the
further south you go, the higher the rainfall amounts will likely
be. Overall would expect 1-1.5" being the average with some areas,
especially over far SW NM where 2-3" are possible.

Temperatures will be cooling down nicely with plenty of cloud
cover and precipitation. Most areas by Sunday will have a tough
time getting out of the 70s with some 60s possible in the areas
with the highest rainfall amounts.

There could continue to be some rain chances continuing even into
the middle of next week, but this will depend on if the upper flow
stays more SW like the EC which taps into drier air or the GFS
which is more southerly and continues to tap some subtropical
moisture. Kept some 20 PoPs going into the middle of the week with
this chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 through most of the period. Any
precipitation will be isolated and confined to area mountains.
Winds will continue to be out of the E to SE at 5-15G25KTS with
the strongest winds at KDMN and west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Low level moisture will remain in place through the period with
min RH`s in the 30s early on but by Sunday into Tuesday will be up
into the 40s to 60s. Generally dry through Friday, but precip will
start moving in early Saturday from the west and spread east by
early Sunday. Chances for rainfall will continue through at least
Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall amounts possible leading
to flooding. The rain looks more stratiform with isolated embedded
thunderstorms, so it will be more of a moderate, prolonged rain
event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  86  69  87 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca            61  81  59  83 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               63  82  64  82 /  10   0   0  20
Alamogordo               59  83  62  83 /  10  10   0  20
Cloudcroft               44  60  45  62 /  10  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    61  80  61  80 /  10  10  10  30
Silver City              56  76  58  76 /  10  10  20  60
Deming                   63  84  66  83 /  10  10  10  40
Lordsburg                63  83  65  80 /  10  10  20  60
West El Paso Metro       67  84  69  86 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City                59  84  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             65  88  66  89 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               61  77  60  80 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                   65  86  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             63  83  66  84 /   0   0   0  20
White Sands HQ           63  83  65  84 /  10   0   0  20
Jornada Range            61  82  63  83 /  10   0   0  20
Hatch                    61  84  64  86 /  10  10   0  30
Columbus                 63  84  66  84 /  10   0  10  40
Orogrande                59  81  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  51  70  49  73 /  10  10   0  10
Mescalero                52  72  49  73 /  10  10   0  20
Timberon                 50  69  48  71 /  10  10   0  10
Winston                  51  72  51  73 /  10  10  10  40
Hillsboro                58  79  58  79 /  10  10  10  40
Spaceport                58  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  30
Lake Roberts             54  75  53  76 /  10  10  20  60
Hurley                   58  78  58  77 /  10  10  20  50
Cliff                    59  84  62  79 /  10  10  20  60
Mule Creek               56  80  58  77 /  10  10  30  70
Faywood                  58  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  50
Animas                   63  84  63  81 /  10  10  20  60
Hachita                  61  83  63  84 /  10   0  20  50
Antelope Wells           60  84  61  83 /  10  10  20  50
Cloverdale               60  80  61  78 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz