Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
153
FXUS64 KEPZ 271853
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, becoming more
isolated this weekend as overall coverage decreases. As
usual, the best chances for thunderstorms will be over area
mountains.
- Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially
in the Sacramento Mountains, and near recent burn scars.
- Better rain chances possible heading into mid to late next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025
As of Friday morning, the monsoonal moisture plume extends from
around Deming to Hatch and up to Salinas Peak and eastward. In
addition, surface moisture is reflected in this way as well where
dewpoints in far eastern areas of the CWA are in the U-50s/L-60s and
L-50s dewpoints found in western areas. This mornings 12Z sounding
shows quite the saturated column with PW values of 1.25" which is
just about the same as yesterdays 12Z sounding. The average PW for
this time of year is around 0.86", so we can expect well above
average PWs in the stream of monsoonal moisture. Model PWs are
suggesting around 1.0" on the western end of the plume and upwards
of 1.4" on the eastern side. In addition, slow low and mid level
flow will continue to allow for these storms to pop up somewhat high
and then fall back down triggering off new storms around the decayed
storm leading to flash flooding issues today. Can continue to expect
similar threats as yesterday where flash flooding from thunderstorms
will be the biggest threat. Some hail continues to be possible but
not expecting any severe hail today. Plenty of lightning will be
associated with these storms as well. Can expect storm activity to
initiate around 12 PM in the area mountains and spreading towards
the lowlands. Less intense thunderstorms expected out west where
moisture is lacking.
By Saturday, high pressure tries to establish itself over the area
leading to a little bit of drying/lesser thunderstorm activity
Saturday through Monday. Although high pressure is not very strong,
it will help to try and suppress some of the convection Sunday and
especially Monday as the high really tries to set up over us. Can
expect run of the mill monsoonal thunderstorms initiating over the
area mountains and spreading to the lowlands during the late
afternoon hours. Perhaps some localized flooding is possible due to
above average PWs and weak shear.
By Tuesday, long range models are suggesting a trough over southern
California moving eastward which will help to funnel moisture over
the Borderland once again. If this trend continues, we might be
looking at another round of efficient rain making thunderstorms
throughout much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Another round of monsoonal afternoon thunderstorms will be seen
today. Storms are already popping up over the higher terrain and
will spread to the desert lowlands in the late afternoon/early
evening. KTCS and KDMN have the best shot at seeing a storm
today/tonight as mentioned by the PROB30s but KLRU and KELP have a
chance, but models are suggesting thunderstorms fizzle out mostly
by the time they get to these terminals, but future amendments may
be needed. Gusty outflow winds from storms will be more common out
west near KDMN, but not expecting any severe wind gusts from
storms. Storm activity will diminish over the evening hours and
should cease by the overnight hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Rain chances expected each afternoon, but this weekend and early
next week will feature a bit of a downtick in activity as drier air
filters in. Critical min RH values return to the Gila region and
western lowland areas as soon as tomorrow and spread towards the
Rio Grande by Sunday. Locations along and west of the Continental
Divide are still highlighted for critical min RHs Monday but
better rain chances exist Tuesday and onward bringing min RHs
above critical areawide. Better moisture flushes in midweek
allowing for thunderstorms to be very efficient rain producers
which could bring trouble to recently burned areas.
Wind speeds stay below critical thresholds each day with surface
winds generally 5-15 mph each afternoon becoming calm overnight.
Ventilation rates will be fair to very good over the weekend
becoming good to very good Monday and Tuesday then fair to good
Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 72 94 73 97 / 20 10 10 10
Sierra Blanca 65 87 66 91 / 50 40 20 30
Las Cruces 66 91 67 95 / 20 10 10 0
Alamogordo 66 93 68 97 / 20 20 10 10
Cloudcroft 49 70 52 74 / 20 50 10 30
Truth or Consequences 67 94 69 97 / 20 10 10 10
Silver City 60 89 63 92 / 30 20 10 10
Deming 66 95 68 99 / 30 10 10 10
Lordsburg 65 95 67 99 / 30 10 10 10
West El Paso Metro 72 93 74 96 / 20 10 20 10
Dell City 68 91 68 95 / 30 20 10 20
Fort Hancock 71 93 72 97 / 50 30 10 20
Loma Linda 65 85 67 89 / 30 10 10 10
Fabens 70 93 71 97 / 30 10 10 10
Santa Teresa 69 91 70 95 / 20 10 20 10
White Sands HQ 71 93 73 96 / 20 10 20 10
Jornada Range 66 93 68 96 / 20 10 10 10
Hatch 66 95 67 99 / 30 10 10 10
Columbus 69 94 71 98 / 40 10 20 0
Orogrande 66 90 68 94 / 20 10 10 10
Mayhill 54 81 57 84 / 20 50 10 40
Mescalero 53 82 56 85 / 20 50 10 30
Timberon 51 77 54 81 / 20 40 10 30
Winston 53 87 56 89 / 20 10 10 20
Hillsboro 61 93 64 96 / 30 20 10 10
Spaceport 63 93 65 96 / 30 10 10 10
Lake Roberts 56 90 58 93 / 30 20 10 20
Hurley 60 90 63 94 / 30 20 10 10
Cliff 62 97 64 100 / 20 10 10 10
Mule Creek 59 94 62 96 / 10 10 10 10
Faywood 62 90 65 93 / 30 20 10 10
Animas 66 95 68 99 / 20 10 10 10
Hachita 64 93 66 97 / 40 10 20 10
Antelope Wells 66 93 67 97 / 40 20 20 10
Cloverdale 64 90 66 93 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher