137
FXUS64 KEWX 030012 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- A cold front moves through overnight through Tuesday morning,
  with a few strong to severe storms possible over the Hill
  Country and Edwards Plateau.

- A drier airmass arrives Tuesday behind the front with cooler
  mornings and mild, but pleasant afternoons.

- Potential for another weak front Thursday/Friday, but
  differences in timing/rain exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1226 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The well-advertised cold front is noted on visible satellite over
eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle as well as based off of
area surface observations. An upper-level low is clearly shown on
GOES East Channel 9 Water Vapor band centered over northeastern New
Mexico. This will eject out over the Plains states, sending the
aforementioned cold front southeast over the next 24 hours. The
latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center lines
up with some of our latest thinking, pushing the Slight risk out of
our area and most of the Marginal now north of South Central Texas.
There is still a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms over
the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau late tonight, but the
bigger severe threat looks to be north of us closer to the better
jet dynamics and instability. In any matter, a line of showers and
storms will still roll through the region starting around 11pm and
containing its march southeast through sunrise Tuesday. The
entire front should be through the area by Noon Tuesday. Some
stronger storms may be embedded in the line, but storms should be
weakening by the time they reach the I-35 Corridor.

Tuesday afternoon will feature cooler afternoon temperatures,
however, more sunshine should break out after storms move east.
Tuesday night features more typical temperatures for the region in
early November, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

On Wednesday, a surface high will settle in for the day, resulting
in comfortable afternoon temperatures along with primarily sunny
skies. Return flow begins as early as Thursday morning despite mid-
level zonal flow through late week. Medium range guidance differs on
the evolution of our next storm system. While the GFS brings a few
showers through on Thursday with the passage of a weak front and
shortwave over north Texas, the ECMWF keeps this shortwave further
north, resulting in dry weather Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend, another shot at rain may arrive in the form of an
upper-level trough over northern Mexico. At this time, it is too
early to say how much of an impact this will have on our ambient
weather. If this trough is too far south, most areas would likely
remain dry Saturday, but if it is a bit further north as the ECMWF
has been advertising, then scattered showers are a better bet on
Saturday. Much cooler temperatures are forecast for highs Saturday
and Sunday as a front may bring an even cooler airmass into the
picture, making it feel very Fall-like for the first full weekend of
November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Overall, no significant changes have been made to the 00Z aviation
forecasts. We should see MVFR cigs develop along I-35 around
04-05Z, with a drop down to IFR anticipated around 08Z. Attention
will then turn to a cold front set to move through the region,
bringing a line of showers and storms during the early morning
hours. The timing has not changed significantly, with 09-13Z
favored along I-35. Out west at DRT, we will only mention -SHRA
between 07-09Z. North winds filter in behind the front and with
drier air moving in, VFR returns to I-35 around 16Z, with VFR
beginning 09Z at DRT. We did opt to increase wind speeds slightly
behind the front and may need to add some gusty conditions pending
observational trends and hi-res guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  76  55  76 /  80  50   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  77  50  76 /  70  60   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  78  52  76 /  60  70   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            65  73  51  73 /  80  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  77  54  76 /  50   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  75  50  75 /  90  40   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             67  79  51  77 /  70  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  77  51  76 /  60  70   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  78  53  77 /  20  60   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  78  53  76 /  70  50   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  78  55  77 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...Platt