Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
697 FXUS64 KFWD 101145 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through the week with a couple of chances for rain on Tuesday and again late Friday into next weekend. - Above normal temperatures and low humidity west of I-35 may continue to support a grass fire threat through the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 542 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Overnight wind speeds remained elevated across much of the region, with sustained southerly winds around 10-15 mph and occasional gusts to 15-20 mph. This maintained a more mixed boundary layer through the pre-dawn hours and resulted in morning lows being slightly more mild than expected. Most areas remain in the low 60s this morning with parts of the Metroplex still hovering closer to the mid 60s. No other notable changes were made to the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1217 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Cloudy skies and unseasonably mild conditions will continue today as mid/high clouds thicken ahead of a (so far) nearly stationary cutoff upper low near the Baja coast. Precipitation chances will gradually ramp up through the afternoon and into the evening as forcing for ascent increases across North and Central TX. Despite favorable large-scale lift, a persistently dry sub-cloud layer will continue to limit the quality and quantity of precipitation. Forecast soundings show insufficient low-level saturation, particularly during the daylight hours, which suggests that any daytime precip will likely take the form of sprinkles or patchy drizzle with little to no accumulation. While isolated light showers may develop over the western counties by midday, more widespread coverage will likely hold off until later in the afternoon and evening as a weak cold front begins pushing into the region and mid-level saturation improves. This window will offer the best opportunity for measurable rain, but even then totals are expected to remain light with most locations seeing just a few hundredths of an inch. We cannot rule out a few spots totaling closer to a tenth of an inch while others miss out on measurable precip entirely. The latest suite of high-resolution guidance continues to offer some spread in the timing of the front. The HRRR leans earlier, bringing the boundary through the Metroplex as early as 3-5 PM, while the other CAMs continue to favor a slightly later arrival, pushing FROPA closer to 6 PM. Regardless of the exact timing, a shift to northerly winds behind the front will coincide with the eastward ejection of the upper wave, leading to a gradual decrease in rain coverage by Wednesday morning. Lows will fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s by daybreak Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1217 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Dry and seasonably mild weather returns Wednesday as post-frontal northerly flow ushers in slightly cooler and drier air. Mornings clouds will give way to some clearing through the afternoon, though lingering cloud cover and weak cold air advection should keep highs in the 60s and lower 70s which is still above normal for mid-February. Temperatures will rebound Thursday and Friday as southerly flow strengthens and an upper ridge builds eastward into the Plains. Attention then turns to a more dynamic system approaching from the Southwest U.S. Friday into Saturday. Guidance has trended toward a more organized closed upper low developing over the southern Rockies before pivoting into the Southern Plains on Saturday. With this expected evolution, confidence has increased in the potential for widespread rainfall, particularly during the Friday night through Saturday timeframe. While the thermodynamic environment appears modest for now, the presence of stronger forcing aloft and increasing shear could potentially support a few isolated strong thunderstorms in Central TX. Given lingering uncertainty regarding moisture return and timing, details remain to be ironed out but the overall trend favors a sharp uptick in rain chances beginning Friday which could impact outdoor plans heading into the weekend. Behind this system, rain chances will taper off later Saturday or early Sunday with dry conditions expected Sunday and Monday as upper ridging builds back in from the west. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with mid/high clouds gradually thickening throughout the day. MVFR ceilings observed this morning across parts of East and Central Texas should remain well east of all TAF sites until lifting to VFR. A wind shift remains on track to arrive later this afternoon as a cold front moves south across the region. The latest GFS LAMP has trended slightly earlier, closer to the ongoing HRRR solution, so the wind shift timing has been adjusted slightly within the existing 22-00Z arrival window across the D10 airspace. Scattered light showers remain possible following FROPA this evening, generally after 00Z, so VCSH will remain in place at all North Texas TAF sites. Early radar returns this afternoon may primarily be virga with no visibility or ceilings impacts expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 50 67 49 / 10 60 0 0 Waco 74 54 72 51 / 10 30 10 0 Paris 75 51 69 46 / 20 50 10 0 Denton 76 44 67 43 / 20 60 0 0 McKinney 76 48 67 46 / 10 60 10 0 Dallas 77 52 69 50 / 10 60 10 0 Terrell 76 50 69 47 / 10 50 10 0 Corsicana 77 55 72 51 / 10 40 10 0 Temple 75 51 73 51 / 10 30 10 0 Mineral Wells 77 45 69 44 / 30 60 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12