333
FXUS64 KFWD 162344
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures will continue Monday and
  Tuesday. Near record highs are expected at both DFW and Waco
  Monday, and at Waco on Tuesday.

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through
  early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding
  during this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Warm and largely cloud free conditions will persist across North
Central Texas this afternoon through Monday, as a mid level ridge
of high pressure lingers over the region. A weak cold front has
pushed into our northern counties, and the light north to
northeasterly flow has provided for afternoon temperatures which
are several degrees cooler than those observed yesterday. However,
as this front retreats northward this evening and washes out, a
more pronounced south to southwesterly surface wind regime will
set up areawide on Monday. The combination of warm advection, and
modest downslope compressional heating will send afternoon
temperatures well into the mid to upper 80s Monday, with 90s
expected across pockets of western North Texas. These values will
are anywhere from 18 to 25 degrees above normal for mid November.

Some areas of stratus will likely push northward out of Central
Texas in the pre-dawn hours Monday, creating some temporary partly
to mostly cloudy conditions for areas east of I-35 and south of
I-20. This cloud cover should steadily mix out by late morning as
stronger southerly winds and diurnal heating commence. All areas
should experience sunny conditions by Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

North Central Texas will experience a final day of dry and
unseasonably warm conditions on Tuesday, before a major upper
level pattern change begins to occur over the Southern Plains.
Tuesday`s highs, while comparable to those of Monday, will
actually threaten to break record highs at both DFW and Waco.

As has been advertised for days now, an amplified upper level
trough will move inland across California, into the Desert
Southwest by Wednesday afternoon. Well ahead of this main trough,
isentropic lift will become established across North Central
Texas by Wednesday. The combination of this forcing for ascent
and increasing moisture advection will facilitate the development
of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area
starting Wednesday afternoon and increasing Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. QPF totals with this initial phase of the
precipitation event are not expected to be overly generous, with
most amounts on the order of an inch or less prior to midday
Thursday.

Model solutions as of this morning have become a bit more aligned
with the evolution of the main upper trough, though the Euro
ensemble height fields suggest a bit faster and more progressive
eastward movement of this system, versus the GEFS ensembles.
Leaning toward the Euro guidance, the upper trough will reach
central New Mexico by Thursday afternoon, then rapidly pivot
northeastward into Kansas by daybreak Friday. The strong forcing
for ascent advertised with this system during this period should
promote widespread showers and thunderstorms across all of the
area from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, with at least a
portion of this activity organizing into one or more primary lines
of convection. Most of this precipitation should push east of
I-35 by Friday morning.

Moisture transport, courtesy of strong southerly low level winds,
will be robust from Wednesday onward. By Thursday, precipitable
water amounts will be extraordinarily high by November standards,
reaching values on the order of 200-300% of climatological normal.
While the slightly more progressive nature of the system might
tend to limit the large and widespread QPF amounts that have been
mentions up to now, the presence of these extremely high PW
values and the vigorous nature of the lift still warrants a
healthy respect for the rain-producing potential with this system.

Will continue to advertise widespread totals of 2 to 3 inches,
with isolated values of around 4+ inches possible in the counties
generally north through northeast of DFW. Some training of
thunderstorm cells will likely occur across this portion of the
area Thursday evening and overnight. These QPF amounts will
produce a threat of flash flooding across much of the forecast
area, especially during the latter half of Thursday into early
Friday morning.

While flash flooding will represent the primary hazard with this
event, some potential for severe thunderstorms also exists,
primarily Thursday and Thursday night. Model guidance is pretty
divergent on the amount of CAPE present, though shear will exist
in abundance. The main threat would likely be strong to severe
straight line winds occurring with some of the line segments. This
threat will likely come into better resolution in the next couple
of days.

As the system departs the region Friday morning, skies will clear
from west to east during the day. Sunny conditions will persist on
Saturday with mild temperatures more in keeping with November.
Cloudiness will increase Saturday night and Sunday, and a few
showers may reappear by Sunday as a new system approaches the
region from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue at D10 airports this TAF
period. MVFR cigs will approach and possibly enter far southeast
D10 in the 10-16Z timeframe on Monday morning, but are not
anticipated to reach the Metroplex airports. Light easterly winds
this evening will veer to southeasterly overnight and southerly on
Monday, with speeds increasing to around 12 knots after 16Z.

For KACT, VFR conditions are expected most of this TAF period
except between 11-16Z when MVFR cigs will spread over the airport.
South winds 5-10 kts overnight are anticipated to increase to
12-15 knots after 16Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  86  68  84 /   0   0  10  10
Waco                65  85  69  83 /   0   0   0  10
Paris               63  82  67  83 /  10  10  10   0
Denton              58  85  64  85 /   0   0   0  10
McKinney            62  85  67  84 /   0   0  10   0
Dallas              65  87  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
Terrell             64  85  67  83 /   0   0  10  10
Corsicana           67  87  69  85 /   0   0  10  10
Temple              64  86  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       56  92  62  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Shamburger