Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
690 FXUS64 KFWD 222329 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 529 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening through Monday evening. Localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will be the primary threats Sunday night into Monday morning. - A low severe weather threat may materialize south of I-20 and along/east of I-35 Monday afternoon and early evening with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. - The middle and end of next week, including Thanksgiving Day, looks cool and dry with highs in the 50s and 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Last night`s cold front is now settled along the Texas Gulf Coast with light north winds prevailing across all of North and Central Texas as of this morning. Expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon, outside of some scattered low clouds along the Red River, and high temperatures in the 60s across most of the region. High clouds will increase later this evening into tonight ahead of our next weather-making system. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s across the forecast area. By Sunday morning, a stout upper-level low will be shifting east- northeast across the Desert Southwest. Low-level flow will turn back southeasterly after sunrise Sunday morning beginning a period of moisture return over the state of Texas. A plume of deeper boundary-layer moisture will first develop over parts of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle by midday Sunday shifting east toward the Big Country later in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may approach our locations along and west of HWY 281 as early as 3-4PM Sunday afternoon. More widespread rain coverage is expected Sunday night into Monday morning as mid/upper-level troughing shifts over the Southern Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will quickly spread along and north of the I-20 corridor as synoptic-scale ascent increases as we head into Sunday evening and overnight. Expect multiple rounds of light to moderate showers and storms across North Texas with embedded heavier pockets of rainfall generally after 7-8PM Sunday evening through Monday morning. All of this activity will remain elevated, keeping the severe weather threat through Monday morning very low. MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range may allow for a few more robust cores capable of producing small hail during the overnight hours. Isolated cases of flash flooding will be the primary threat during the Sunday night-Monday morning timeframe, especially over areas that observed the highest rainfall totals in the previous rainfall event. By mid-morning Monday, a surface low will shift east along the Oklahoma/Kansas border dragging a Pacific front/dryline across our forecast area during the day Monday. A final, disorganized line of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop along this surface feature by midday Monday near the I-35 corridor. This activity will shift into East Texas by Monday evening exiting our forecast area by 6-8PM. Ahead of this line, a plume of SBCAPE ~750-1250 J/kg is forecast to surge northward Monday afternoon. Sufficient shear and access to surface-based instability will likely promote a several-hour period of severe weather potential generally along and east of I-35 and south of I-20 Monday afternoon and early evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat, but forecasted soundings suggesting 100-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH will be present will also support at least a low end tornado threat. This threat would be maximized in any cells that are able to develop out in the narrow warm sector ahead of the primary line of storms, however, it is uncertain if this warm-sector activity will ultimately materialize. Most likely rainfall totals through Monday evening will fall in the 1.5-3" range with isolated 4+" totals along/north of I-20 over North Texas and 0.5-1.5" down in Central Texas. A drier airmass will usher in behind this system Monday night and remain settled over North and Central Texas through the remainder of the work week. A stronger cold front (dry FROPA) will push through the region Tuesday night bringing much cooler conditions to the region for the Thanksgiving holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday through Friday. Several rural and low- lying locations may dip to freezing Thanksgiving morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 VFR will prevail for much of the period but changes are on the way. Thicker high clouds will continue to overspread the region tonight with north winds 5-10 kt continuing. A more east-southeast flow will set up by late Sunday morning with cloud heights continuing to lower throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across West Texas late in the day Sunday and will overspread North Texas late Sunday night into Monday. At this time, we`ll have a VCTS from 3-6Z in the latest DFW TAF with coverage of showers/storms expected to increase after midnight Sunday night and continuing into Monday morning. Until then, VFR will prevail with no immediate aviation concerns expected. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 49 67 57 71 / 0 20 90 90 Waco 46 68 60 72 / 0 20 70 100 Paris 46 66 54 66 / 0 0 80 100 Denton 43 66 53 71 / 0 30 90 90 McKinney 45 66 55 69 / 0 10 90 100 Dallas 49 68 57 71 / 0 20 90 100 Terrell 46 68 57 71 / 0 10 80 100 Corsicana 49 69 61 74 / 0 10 70 100 Temple 47 69 61 74 / 0 20 60 90 Mineral Wells 44 70 55 76 / 0 60 100 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Dunn