Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
261 FXUS64 KFWD 151835 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain may increase the threat for flooding during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Expect this weekend to remain relatively quiet as ridging continues to dictate our regional weather pattern. Afternoon highs today will be 15-25 degrees above normal for mid-November standards, ranging from the 80s for most to the low 90s in our northwestern counties. A broad shortwave currently moving over the Canadian Provinces of Manitoba and Ontario will dig south- southeast across the eastern CONUS over today and tomorrow, sending a weak cold front southward. This front is expected to move into North Texas late tonight through tomorrow morning. Winds will shift from south to north as the front passes, and will eventually veer further out of the east tomorrow afternoon. The upslope component of the winds will aid in keeping temperatures behind the front slightly cooler, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s - low 80s near the I-20 corridor and areas north, to the mid-upper 80s south of I-20. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Over Monday and Tuesday of this upcoming week, a longwave trough will become established across the western CONUS with the ridge over the Southern Plains gradually breaking down. A closed low near the base of the main trough will eject into the Central/Southern Plains closer to midweek, with increasing moisture advection and cloud cover expected to move overtop the region out ahead of the low. As the low moves closer, minute disturbances out ahead of this low will interact with the increased moisture, bringing a return of periodic rain chances Tuesday night through Friday. The highest rain chances still look to be late Wednesday through Thursday as the strongest lift from the system moves through the Southern Plains, bringing more widespread showers and storms to the region. PWATs in the 90th climatological percentile or higher and long, skinny CAPE profiles in forecast soundings are indicative of periods of heavy rainfall, with a widespread 2-4 inches of total rainfall most likely during the latter half of the week. Isolated higher totals are not out of the question, but exact locations of those higher-end amounts are still uncertain this far out in time. The latest cluster analysis now has ~60-65% of ensemble members homing in on a slower, deeper mid-level shortwave trough as compared to yesterday`s measly ~25%, which means confidence in a heavy rain event is increasing. There remains a limited potential for strong to severe storms mid-late next week, aside from of the threat for flooding. However, the extent of the severe threat and associated hazards still remain a bit uncertain and will depend on the amount of instability and shear which evolves over the area. With multiple hazards possibly in play, make sure to keep updated with the forecast as we head into this upcoming week. We may see a short break in the rain next weekend before another low swings across the Plains and brings additional rain chances as we enter Thanksgiving week. However, this is currently beyond the scope of the long term forecast and will start to be included in future forecast packages. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Occasionally gusty S-SW winds will continue through this afternoon at the TAF sites, though will decrease in intensity this evening. Low cigs will again surge north-northeast overnight into Sunday morning, but should remain to the east of the airports and cause no impacts at the terminals. A weak front will approach D10 overnight, forcing winds out ahead to veer towards the west. This westerly shift will occur near/just after daybreak, but the front itself will not move through the D10 airports until closer to 14-15Z. Winds behind the front will shift northwest, then gradually veer more towards the east-northeast over the course of the day staying below 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 80 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 59 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 10 Denton 53 79 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 58 80 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 61 82 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 60 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 59 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 54 83 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater