Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
480 FXUS64 KFWD 161921 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 121 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday. Near record highs are expected at both DFW and Waco Monday, and at Waco on Tuesday. - Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Warm and largely cloud free conditions will persist across North Central Texas this afternoon through Monday, as a mid level ridge of high pressure lingers over the region. A weak cold front has pushed into our northern counties, and the light north to northeasterly flow has provided for afternoon temperatures which are several degrees cooler than those observed yesterday. However, as this front retreats northward this evening and washes out, a more pronounced south to southwesterly surface wind regime will set up areawide on Monday. The combination of warm advection, and modest downslope compressional heating will send afternoon temperatures well into the mid to upper 80s Monday, with 90s expected across pockets of western North Texas. These values will are anywhere from 18 to 25 degrees above normal for mid November. Some areas of stratus will likely push northward out of Central Texas in the pre-dawn hours Monday, creating some temporary partly to mostly cloudy conditions for areas east of I-35 and south of I-20. This cloud cover should steadily mix out by late morning as stronger southerly winds and diurnal heating commence. All areas should experience sunny conditions by Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 North Central Texas will experience a final day of dry and unseasonably warm conditions on Tuesday, before a major upper level pattern change begins to occur over the Southern Plains. Tuesday`s highs, while comparable to those of Monday, will actually threaten to break record highs at both DFW and Waco. As has been advertised for days now, an amplified upper level trough will move inland across California, into the Desert Southwest by Wednesday afternoon. Well ahead of this main trough, isentropic lift will become established across North Central Texas by Wednesday. The combination of this forcing for ascent and increasing moisture advection will facilitate the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area starting Wednesday afternoon and increasing Wednesday night into Thursday morning. QPF totals with this initial phase of the precipitation event are not expected to be overly generous, with most amounts on the order of an inch or less prior to midday Thursday. Model solutions as of this morning have become a bit more aligned with the evolution of the main upper trough, though the Euro ensemble height fields suggest a bit faster and more progressive eastward movement of this system, versus the GEFS ensembles. Leaning toward the Euro guidance, the upper trough will reach central New Mexico by Thursday afternoon, then rapidly pivot northeastward into Kansas by daybreak Friday. The strong forcing for ascent advertised with this system during this period should promote widespread showers and thunderstorms across all of the area from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, with at least a portion of this activity organizing into one or more primary lines of convection. Most of this precipitation should push east of I-35 by Friday morning. Moisture transport, courtesy of strong southerly low level winds, will be robust from Wednesday onward. By Thursday, precipitable water amounts will be extraordinarily high by November standards, reaching values on the order of 200-300% of climatological normal. While the slightly more progressive nature of the system might tend to limit the large and widespread QPF amounts that have been mentiond up to now, the presence of these extremely high PW values and the vigorous nature of the lift still warrants a healthy respect for the rain-producing potential with this system. Will continue to advertise widespread totals of 2 to 3 inches, with isolated values of around 4+ inches possible in the counties generally north through northeast of DFW. Some training of thunderstorm cells will likely occur across this portion of the area Thursday evening and overnight. These QPF amounts will produce a threat of flash flooding across much of the forecast area, especially during the latter half of Thursday into early Friday morning. While flash flooding will represent the primary hazard with this event, some potential for severe thunderstorms also exists, primarily Thursday and Thursday night. Model guidance is pretty divergent on the amount of CAPE present, though shear will exist in abundance. The main threat would likely be strong to severe straight line winds occurring with some of the line segments. This threat will likely come into better resolution in the next couple of days. As the system departs the region Friday morning, skies will clear from west to east during the day. Sunny conditions will persist on Saturday with mild temperatures more in keeping with November. Cloudiness will increase Saturday night and Sunday, and a few showers may reappear by Sunday as a new system approaches the region from the west. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 A very diffuse and slow moving cold front has pushed southward to near a Brownwood to Dallas to Sulphur Springs line as of midday, creating a variety of wind directions, albeit very light, throughout D10. This boundary has essentially exhausted its southeastward push, and should begin retreating northward this afternoon, before entirely dissipating by 00z. As this boundary shifts northward this afternoon, surface winds at all D10 terminals should gradually veer to a northeast, and eventually southeast direction by 00z. The overall pressure gradient remains quite weak, and wind speeds should remain less than 7 knots across the Metroplex. Waco, remaining well to the south of this boundary, will maintain stronger southwesterly winds of 10 to 13 knots through this afternoon. A more pronounced gradient should become established after 12z Monday as lee troughing evolves over eastern New Mexico. This will promote the development of stronger south to southwest winds across all of the region Monday, at speeds averaging 10 to 15 knots. VFR conditions will persist at all terminals this afternoon through most of the pre-dawn hours Monday. However, a shield of stratus will begin pushing northward through Central Texas after 06z, and this should create low MVFR or possibly even IFR ceilings at Waco from 11z to 16z. Farther north, this cloud mass should erode somewhat before reaching I-20 by mid morning. However, a few shreds of this cloudiness should overspread most of the D10 terminals after 13z. Not confident about ceilings across D10 tomorrow morning, but some patchy MVFR conditions are not totally out of the question, and will need to be considered in subsequent TAF issuances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 86 68 84 / 0 0 10 10 Waco 65 85 69 83 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 63 82 67 83 / 10 10 10 0 Denton 58 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 62 85 67 84 / 0 0 10 0 Dallas 65 87 69 86 / 0 0 10 10 Terrell 64 85 67 83 / 0 0 10 10 Corsicana 67 87 69 85 / 0 0 10 10 Temple 64 86 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 56 92 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw