Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
858 FXUS64 KFWD 241833 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1233 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Tornado Watch is in effect for the Brazos Valley and eastern Central Texas through this evening. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including the potential for a couple tornadoes. - A return to cool and dry conditions is expected by the middle of the week through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances return next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A loosely-organized line of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from the Arklatex Region southwest toward the Austin MSA along an effective outflow boundary laid out by this morning`s activity. A warm front is quickly surging northward drawing low 70s surface dewpoints and a moderate plume of surface-based instability over the Brazos Valley early this afternoon. Steepening mid-level lapse rates with the approach of a mid-level shortwave and peaks of sun through the low-level cloud cover will aid in the development of a swath of 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE south of the warm front this afternoon. 15-25 kts of 0-1km shear and a stout 30-40 kt LLJ is producing an area of 100-200 s2/m2 of low- level SRH over much of the now uncapped warm sector. This environment will favor supercellular structures capable of producing all severe weather hazards, including a low potential for a couple tornadoes, both along and ahead of the line of storms currently near the I-35 corridor. The tornado threat seems highest across our far southeast (Freestone, Anderson, Leon counties) where a confluence band of supercells may track over in the next 2-3 hours. Back toward the west along the line of storms, the tornado threat may take on a more QLCS-like mode, unless continued semi-discrete cell regeneration occurs on the southwestern periphery of this boundary. All of this to say, the storm mode is quite messy over our southeastern counties, and that will likely hinder the tornado threat from being much higher today. A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for our Brazos Valley and eastern Central Texas counties through 7PM this evening. All storm activity should exit into East Texas by ~7PM this evening as a Pacific front/dryline extending out of a surface low near the Kansas/Oklahoma border surges out of the west this afternoon ushering in a much drier airmass. This system`s actual cold front will push through North and Central Texas later tonight. Cool and dry conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the short-term forecast period. Expect afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Tuesday afternoon beneath sunny skies. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1233 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A stronger push of cool air will arrive late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night (dry frontal passage) which will knock high temperatures back into the mid 50s to low 60s through the remainder of the work week, including the Thanksgiving Holiday. Enjoy the sunny and cool weather on Wednesday and Thursday, because by Friday, increasing moisture ahead of our next system will lead to more expansive cloud cover and greater rain chances as we head into the weekend. Post-Thanksgiving Holiday travel over the upcoming weekend could be impacted by an incoming storm system and wet conditions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 An expansive deck of IFR/MVFR cigs will gradually erode from west to east this afternoon as drier air ushers in from the west. Expect low stratus to lift and clear the D10 terminals and KACT by 20Z-21Z. South winds will shift out of the west-southwest as clouds clear with an eventual northwest wind shift expected later tonight as this storm system`s actual cold front pushes through North and Central Texas. Precipitation impacts are largely finished over the Metroplex, but VCTS/VCSH could continue near KACT for a couple more hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 69 43 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 49 71 44 58 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 49 65 40 55 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 45 68 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 48 68 40 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 52 69 44 57 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 49 70 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 52 73 45 60 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 49 74 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 46 73 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld