Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
967 FXUS64 KFWD 021815 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 115 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain will continue through Saturday, though coverage and intensity will generally decrease with time. - The threat for additional flooding continues to decrease. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM today, but an extension is not anticipated. - Rain chances will end by Sunday evening. Dry and increasingly warm weather is expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A slow-moving front remains draped across North and Central Texas early this afternoon, with a broad area of showers continuing mainly near and west of the I-35 corridor. Coverage has steadily decreased over the past several hours despite an anomalously moist airmass remaining in place, and this trend should continue through the afternoon as forcing becomes increasingly diffuse. Meaningful buoyancy is displaced from much of the rain shield, with the cool/post-frontal environment characterized by little useful instability. Therefore, showers should remain the predominant precipitation type with only isolated thunderstorms possible through the remainder of the day. While antecedent conditions remain quite wet following the past couple days of rainfall, the decreasing coverage and lack of appreciable instability should substantially limit the potential for additional flooding. The Flood Watch will remain in effect through its scheduled expiration at 7 PM, but an extension is not anticipated. Localized flooding could still occur where any heavier showers repeatedly affect saturated areas, though the overall flood threat will continue to diminish. A relative lull is expected this evening before shower coverage increases again overnight. This increase will be driven less by instability and more by continued isentropic ascent above the shallow post-frontal airmass as the weakening upper trough remains nearby. Scattered to numerous showers should spread back across portions of North and Central Texas overnight into Saturday morning, with only an isolated thunderstorm possible. The greatest coverage should generally favor Central Texas and areas west of I-35, though the exact placement of the overnight precipitation axis remains somewhat uncertain. The weakening trough will finally begin pulling away on Saturday while progressively drier air filters into the region. Showers may remain fairly widespread across parts of Central Texas Saturday morning, but coverage should steadily diminish through the afternoon, particularly across North Texas. Persistent clouds and occasional rain will keep temperatures below normal once again, with most locations topping out in the 70s and low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 The prolonged unsettled pattern will finally come to an end this weekend as the lingering upper trough weakens and departs. Most locations should be dry Saturday night, though a reinforcing cold front arriving Sunday may squeeze out one final round of scattered showers, primarily across Central Texas where deeper moisture will be slower to depart. Any remaining precipitation will end from north to south Sunday as drier air surges into the region behind the front. Surface high pressure settling into the Southern Plains will then provide several days of dry and pleasant weather, with cooler and less humid nights followed by increasingly warmer afternoons as abundant sunshine returns. The pattern will become increasingly dominated by mid-level ridging during the middle and latter portions of next week as the stronger westerlies retreat to the north. Subsidence and a dry column should maintain rain-free conditions through Thursday while temperatures steadily warm. Highs should return to the 80s across most of North and Central Texas by early next week, while overnight temperatures gradually moderate when southerly flow eventually returns. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 MVFR ceilings are likely this afternoon at all TAF sites as low- level moisture and increasingly isolated showers hang around through the day, but conditions may occasionally improve to VFR through sunset. Thunder potential remains too low to mention in the TAF due to a lack of instability, but a rumble of thunder or two can`t be entirely ruled out this afternoon, particularly at KACT. IFR ceilings are likely to return tonight behind the front, along with a slight drop in visibility. Model guidance has a low probability (20- 30%) of LIFR cigs for a few hours Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to include in the 18Z TAFs. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 77 68 82 / 60 60 30 10 Waco 69 80 68 82 / 60 60 50 30 Paris 66 76 64 84 / 30 40 30 10 Denton 66 77 65 83 / 60 60 20 10 McKinney 65 76 64 82 / 60 50 20 10 Dallas 69 78 69 83 / 60 60 30 10 Terrell 67 78 65 83 / 50 50 30 20 Corsicana 68 79 67 81 / 50 50 40 30 Temple 68 81 67 82 / 70 60 50 40 Mineral Wells 62 75 63 82 / 80 70 30 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ103>107-117>123- 130>135-143>147-156>161-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Fenske