Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
223 FXUS64 KFWD 111914 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 214 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A shower or isolated storm cannot be ruled out across the Brazos Valley and parts of East Texas this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. - A quiet weather pattern is expected through much of the week with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s. - Chances for rain/storms return late Friday and continue through the weekend as the next storm system approaches. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 A remnant MCV continues to drift near the southeast edge of our forecast area early this afternoon, while the shortwave responsible for yesterday`s active weather continues to slide east-southeast across Texas. The cold front is now well south of the region, leaving North and Central Texas in a cooler post- frontal regime with northerly to northeasterly winds and temperatures mostly in the 70s. Most of the area will remain dry through the rest of the day, but weak mid-level ascent and localized lift near the MCV may still be enough for a few showers or an isolated storm across the Brazos Valley and our East Texas counties. Severe weather is not expected. The environment is just too stable and weakly buoyant for anything more than brief lightning, light to moderate rain, and perhaps a wind gust or two. Any lingering showers will shift east of the area this evening as the shortwave departs and weak subsidence spreads in from the west. Skies should clear for most areas tonight with lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A few patches of shallow fog cannot be ruled out late tonight into early Tuesday, mainly west of I-35, where clear skies and light to calm winds allow temperatures to briefly cool to saturation. The saturated layer should be quite shallow with drier air just above it, so any fog that does develop should be patchy and short-lived with limited impacts. Tuesday will be quiet and warmer as weak ridging begins to build overhead and surface winds gradually veer to the east and southeast. Moisture return will still be shallow, and meaningful ascent will be lacking, so rain chances will remain near zero through Tuesday afternoon. Highs should climb back into the lower to mid 80s regionwide. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Weak ridging will remain the main story through much of the week, keeping North and Central Texas warm and mostly dry. Southerly flow will become better established Wednesday into Friday as lee troughing strengthens, allowing humidity to gradually increase while temperatures return to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Despite the better moisture, the atmosphere won`t have much forcing to produce rain. Subsidence aloft, warm mid-level temperatures, and the lack of a focused boundary should keep convection suppressed through late week. The forecast becomes a little less certain by the weekend as the western U.S. trough begins to influence the Plains and weak disturbances move through southwest flow aloft. Moisture will be deeper by then, and at least some instability should be in place across North Texas. That said, the rain/storm chances remain low-end (less than 20%) for now because the better forcing may stay north of the area. The most plausible window for isolated to scattered storms appears to be late Saturday into Sunday, especially across North Texas and near the Red River, but confidence in timing and coverage remains low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Ceilings near 2-3 kft will continue to scatter and lift this afternoon as drier air gradually filters into North and Central Texas behind yesterday`s front. North to northeast winds around 5-10 kt will continue through the afternoon, then become light and variable tonight as surface high pressure settles overhead. Clear skies are expected overnight into Tuesday morning with winds gradually turning southerly to southeasterly after 15Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 59 81 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 54 80 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 56 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 57 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 61 83 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 57 81 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 60 83 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 60 82 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 55 82 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12