Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
887 FXUS64 KFWD 270741 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 241 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas today. - The overall fire threat will be lower today due to increased cloud cover and lower wind speeds. However, continue to take caution to avoid sparking wildfires. Smoke from ongoing wildfires will continue to reduce visibility in some areas. - Storm chances will be low today, mainly across western North Texas and Central Texas. There will be a potential for small hail and strong outflow winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 The Southern Plains remains positioned on the eastern periphery of a mid-level area of high pressure, currently centered over the Four Corners region. This has allowed shortwaves to migrate southward into our region, bringing periods of showers and storms to the region. A weak boundary remains draped across the region early this morning with showers and storms ongoing eastern Central Texas. Given the 15-20 degree dew point depressions and modest instability, a few of these storms have become strong with gusty outflow winds and small hail. This activity is expected to continue moving south through the next few hours with mostly precipitation-free conditions closer to sunrise. A surface low will continue to deepen across Southeast Texas, influencing our region with north to northeasterly winds through much of the day. Even with the northerly wind component, temperatures this afternoon will manage to climb in the upper 90s to around 101 degrees. Hot temperatures combined with dew points in the mid to upper 60s will result in heat index values between 100-109. The warmest "feel-like" temperatures will generally be along and east of the I-35 corridor, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Low rain chances will once again return this afternoon as weak forcing remains near the stalled boundary. Coverage should stay limited, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop, especially across Central Texas and western portions of North Texas. The dry sub-cloud layer will limit rainfall totals, however, stronger cells will be capable of strong outflow winds and small hail. Tonight, expect precipitation chances to come to an end with temperatures in the 70s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 Mid-level ridging highlighted in the short term discussion will continue to be the dominant feature through the rest of this forecast period. While the center of the high will remain well west of our region tomorrow, it`s expected to start building back to the east this weekend. With increasing heights overhead, subsidence will help shunt precipitation chances away from our region. This translates into slightly warmer temperatures next week with widespread triple digit highs across much of North Texas. The position of the high will continue to influence our weather next week as models now shift the center of the high east of our region, bringing deep southerly flow by the latter half of the week. This could bring better moisture, helping temperatures drop by a few degrees. Unfortunately, even with the potential for slightly cooler temperatures, heat index values are still going to remain in the "it`s too hot" category. Given the lack of wetting rainfall expected, the threat for new fire starts will continue across the region. Vegetation remains dry with afternoon relative humidity in the 20-30% range through the middle of next week. Remember, you can help avoid wildfires! Do not burn if a burn ban is in effect and never throw cigarette butts out your window! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026 VFR conditions are ongoing across North Texas with northerly winds in place. Expect a rather tranquil day today with minimal wind variation through the afternoon and passing high clouds. For Central Texas, thunderstorms are currently passing near the terminal in the wake of a southward surging cold front. The thunderstorm activity will persist through around 09z before shifting south and dissipating. Given the front will stall near KACT today, wind direction may vary through the day. Regardless, overall wind speeds will remain below 10 kts. For the D10 TAF sites, wind direction will become more easterly this evening and persist through much of the night. This easterly component will revert back to northerly after 12z, therefore, expect northerly winds to be added in the next TAF cycle. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 78 99 79 / 10 10 0 0 Waco 100 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 0 Paris 96 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 99 74 99 74 / 10 10 0 0 McKinney 98 74 98 74 / 10 10 0 0 Dallas 101 78 100 79 / 10 10 0 0 Terrell 99 73 99 73 / 10 10 0 0 Corsicana 100 75 98 75 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 101 75 99 74 / 20 20 10 0 Mineral Wells 101 72 100 72 / 20 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-102>107- 117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez