Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
279 FXUS64 KFWD 070004 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 704 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return Friday and linger over the weekend as our next storm system and cold front move through. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 The cold front has completely exited our southern CWA boundary as of 2 PM, leaving all of North and Central Texas underneath northerly flow and continued cloud cover. Lingering clouds and those northerly winds will help keep this afternoon fairly cool, with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 70s. Isolated to scattered elevated showers and occasional storms will continue to stream SW to NE mainly over Central and East Texas through early this evening as a passing minute disturbance swings across the Plains. Coverage of any storms remains a bit uncertain due to both a lack of meaningful afternoon heating, and that the better lift from the shortwave remains confined to our north. Any storm that is able to develop will have the potential to become strong with a hail threat as latest RAP analysis still shows up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and ~7-7.5 degree lapse rates. As such we`ll continue to carry a chance for storms through this afternoon, though most areas will likely remain dry the rest of today. Any activity that occurs this afternoon will dissipate over this evening. Thursday will be drier as the aforementioned shortwave passes across the Plains. The post-frontal surface high will slide through the region during the day, eventually culminating in the return of southerly winds late in the afternoon and evening. Cloudy skies will persist across much of North and Central Texas tomorrow, though temperatures will still be able to peak in the low-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Well to our west, a lagging shortwave disturbance will deepen and become a closed low near the Desert Southwest U.S.-Mexico border. This low will persist in its eastward movement as we head into the weekend. On Friday, more meaningful moisture advection will ramp up along with increasing lift beginning to spread across the region out ahead of the incoming shortwave. Expect showers and storms to return late Friday into Saturday as lift and moisture interact with the unstable environment (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 7.5-8 degC/km lapse rates). Any storm that develops will be elevated in nature, posing a threat for hail. However, both the severe threat and exact coverage are uncertain at this time as forecast soundings show more marginal deep layer shear. which may inhibit storm development. We`ll continue to keep an eye on the potential for storms going into the weekend, and will provide more details as they become available. Unsettled weather is expected to persist through this upcoming weekend as multiple disturbances round the base of the parent longwave trough. By early next week, the longwave trough should be exiting to our east, dragging a cold front south through the region late Sunday into Monday. Rain chances will ultimately come to an end by Monday as the front exits to our south and upper- level ridging begins to build in the wake of the departing trough. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 The post-frontal showers that developed over the Metroplex have already weakened substantially this evening and should dissipate/shift east shortly. MVFR ceilings lingering at DFW, DAL, and GKY are expected to lift within the next hour or two, with VFR then prevailing across the D10 terminals through the remainder of the evening and overnight. Northerly winds will continue, but speeds will ease as surface high pressure settles over the region tonight. A return to southerly flow is expected after 00Z Friday. Farther south, confidence remains higher in another round of stratus affecting KACT overnight into Thursday morning. Ceilings are expected to lower again later tonight, with a brief period of IFR ceilings possible toward daybreak. Conditions should improve by late Thursday morning as the low clouds scatter, while northerly winds persist areawide through the end of the current TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 75 58 81 / 0 0 10 10 Waco 57 74 59 79 / 0 10 20 60 Paris 51 72 52 79 / 10 0 0 10 Denton 51 73 53 81 / 0 0 10 10 McKinney 52 74 56 80 / 0 0 10 10 Dallas 56 75 59 82 / 0 0 10 20 Terrell 55 73 56 80 / 10 0 10 20 Corsicana 57 76 60 80 / 0 0 10 50 Temple 58 74 59 79 / 0 10 20 70 Mineral Wells 50 72 53 81 / 0 0 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...12