Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
593 FXUS64 KFWD 011145 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 545 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - After a cold morning with lows in the teens and low 20s, temperatures will warm up to the 40s/50s by this afternoon. - The warming trend will continue over the upcoming week, with low rain chances returning to areas east of the I-35 corridor on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1211 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Another cold night is in progress across North and Central TX with most locations already in the low to mid 20s. Temperatures shouldn`t drop too much farther as the center of a 1035 mb surface high will continue to shift eastward overnight allowing a light southerly wind to become established prior to sunrise. A weak upstream shortwave is also moving through the Southern Plains tonight and has resulted in some mid level cloud cover across the northeast half of the CWA. Some light radar returns are noted and this is likely some light snow flurries, but it`s unlikely any of this is making it to the ground given the very dry sub cloud layer. This activity will move east of the area overnight with clearing skies by morning. Southerly winds will return on Sunday with temperatures climbing back into the 50s which will be about 20 degrees warmer than Saturday`s highs. The warmup will continue into Monday as a weak mid level ridge slides through the Southern Plains. Highs on Monday should top out in the mid to upper 60s. A strong upper trough will begin to dig into the Central Plains on Monday with a surface low over the TX Panhandle deepening. This will gradually pull some moisture northward into North Texas, primarily east of I-35. This moisture should result in increasing cloud cover through the day and will occur ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1211 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 The cold front will enter our northwest counties early Tuesday morning and we`ll likely see a few scattered warm advection showers across our eastern counties through the morning hours. Coverage will increase into the early afternoon as the front moves eastward, but the best moisture will quickly get pushed out of our area by evening. Coverage of showers will be highest across our southeast counties with areas farther to the north and west missing out on any rainfall potential with this system. Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the 50s and we`ll continue to monitor a low potential for temperatures to be considerably cooler than currently forecast. As the strong shortwave digs into the Southern Plains, very strong synoptic forcing for ascent will overspread North Texas through the day Wednesday. Model guidance has come in a little less aggressive with moisture, which means despite the strong lift, we won`t likely see any extensive clouds or precipitation. But, if there is a little more moisture, we could quickly go from mostly sunny skies to overcast conditions which would result in a significant deviation in temperatures from the current forecast. We`ll likely have a little better handle on this potential in the next 24-48 hours. Otherwise, mid level ridging will quickly build in behind the departing shortwave promoting a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday and Saturday. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 VFR conditions with south to southwest winds AOB 10 kts will persist today through Monday morning. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 10-15 kts after 18Z tomorrow. Outside of FEW-SCT mid- level clouds, no other impacts are expected through the period. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 35 68 48 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 55 34 66 54 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 47 30 63 47 / 0 0 0 20 Denton 53 31 66 43 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 51 32 65 47 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 55 36 67 52 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 52 32 66 50 / 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 54 35 69 53 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 57 34 69 53 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 60 33 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$