085
FXUS64 KFWD 281850
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous travel impacts due to lingering ice and re-freezing
  on roads will continue across North Texas tonight into Thursday.

- Another round of freezing fog is possible tonight into Thursday
  morning, mainly for areas near and east of Interstate 35.

- Much colder temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected
  Saturday into Sunday. Wind chills on Saturday will range from
  -5 to 15 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A warmer, sunnier day is expected today as upper-level ridging
continues to build into the region in the wake of a departing
shortwave disturbance. Afternoon highs will be able to peak in the
upper 30s to upper 40s today, with much less dense cirrus
spreading in from the west. These conditions will prove much more
efficient for melting the snow/sleet and ice still coating much of
the ground. However, the fly in the ointment is that any slush or
water still on the ground will refreeze tonight as temperatures
drop below freezing once again. While the last couple of nights
have been cold, observations have been warmer than the base NBM
guidance. As such, I have warmed overnight temperatures a tad,
with morning lows expected to bottom out in the mid 20s to just
below freezing. Returning southerly winds will allow for better
warm advection tonight. This advection will promote another round
of patchy freezing fog, mainly near and east of the I-35 corridor.
One thing to keep an eye on is the temperatures and cloud cover.
If we end up even warmer than currently forecast, it may inhibit
fog formation. If freezing fog forms, light ice accumulations will
be possible, which would increase the potential for black ice on
roads. Make sure to give yourself plenty of time during the
morning commute and to drive carefully and slowly.

Tomorrow will fare even warmer, with highs expected to peak in
the 40s to around 60 degrees. A shortwave disturbance currently
moving towards Utah will continue its trek across the CONUS,
sending it`s attendant cold front south through the region over
the afternoon and evening on Thursday, bringing colder
temperatures and breezy winds with gusts up to 20-25 mph. A lack
of meaningful moisture ahead of the front will keep this frontal
passage dry as it moves through North and Central Texas. We`ll
continue the trend of melting in the afternoon, however, any
lingering melt/slush on the ground will refreeze Thursday night
as temperatures dip below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

With the front expected to be south of the region, Friday will be
a bit cooler than the day before with afternoon highs in the low
40s to low 50s. A re-enforcing shot of cold air will be shunted
across North and Central Texas on Friday as an upper low to our
east swings from the Great Lakes towards the Carolinas. This will
result in even colder conditions as we head into the weekend.

The coldest conditions will be Saturday morning to Sunday
morning. Morning low temperatures will dip in to the teens and
20s both mornings. There is potential for another Extreme Cold
Watch or Cold Weather Advisory to be issued Friday night through
Saturday morning, as wind chills range between -5 and 15 degrees
due to breezy winds. Any Watch/Warning/Advisory will come in the
next day or so as we get closer in time. Saturday afternoon will
see highs only in the 30s, with much of North Texas at or slightly
below freezing. Latest NBM probabilities also show that much of
Central Texas has a 20-50% chance of staying at or below 32
degrees. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this potential as we go
through the next couple of days. Thankfully, this frigid cold will
be temporary as a rapid warm up is expected Sunday into early
next week.

Unsettled weather is in our future as long-range guidance shows
multiple shortwave disturbances breaking down the western CONUS
ridge, and eventually swinging across the Plains. Rain chances are
expected to increase beginning early next week across North and
Central Texas. Thankfully, we will be above freezing during both
the days and nights, so all precipitation at this time will remain
liquid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Northwest winds will gradually back towards the southwest late
this afternoon, with flow change expected toward 23Z in D10/01Z
at ACT. Winds will continue to back further, becoming more
southerly around 06Z. Overnight, there is another potential for
patchy freezing fog at the airports, where reduced visibilities
and light ice accumulations will be possible in any area that
develops fog. At this time, have kept 4-6 SM visibilities at the
TAF sites due to uncertainty in the extent of any fog that
develops. Any MVFR (or occasionally lower) visibilities will
improve over the morning, becoming VFR by mid-late morning. A
front is expected to move through the region tomorrow afternoon,
forcing winds to shift back out of the northwest with speeds
closer to 14-15 kts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    31  52  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                28  57  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               27  49  26  42 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              25  50  22  44 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            29  50  25  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              31  54  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             28  52  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           30  56  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              27  59  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       26  52  24  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater