Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
112 FXUS64 KFWD 091055 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 555 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions are expected today and Friday with heat index values near 105 degrees. - Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A weak upper level disturbance that had been hanging out across the Ozarks and extending back into northeast Texas has finally pulled away from the region allowing mid level ridging to build back into North Texas. This will result in hot and rain free conditions today and again on Friday with highs at or just above 100 degrees and heat index values near 105 degrees. Deep boundary layer mixing and slightly higher wind speeds will allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 60s during peak heating which should keep heat index values at or just above the ambient air temperature. The only exception to this may be across our northeast counties where recent rainfall has allowed dewpoints to remain slightly elevated. Heat index values may briefly top 105 degrees here this afternoon. Otherwise, no significant weather is expected through tonight with southerly winds remaining breezy through the overnight hours into early Friday. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Hot and dry weather will continue Friday and Saturday as mid level ridging expands but changes will be on the way for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Until then, high temperatures at or just above 100 degrees will continue with heat index values near 105. Ridging will expand and shift westward over the Intermountain West by late Saturday which will allow troughing to dig through the Central and Southern Plains by Saturday night. A weak frontal boundary will also slide southward into the Plains during this time and should serve as a focus for convective development mainly to our north. In addition, we may see an uptick in sea breeze convection to our southeast which may spread into our far southeast counties late Saturday afternoon/evening. With weak synoptic forcing for ascent spreading through the Southern Plains late Saturday night, ongoing convection to our north should spread south toward the Red River during the late overnight hours into early Sunday. It`s a little uncertain how much activity will be ongoing during this time, but the weak frontal boundary should sag south toward the I-20 corridor during the day Sunday. Moisture pooling along this boundary and continued weak ascent atop an unstable boundary layer should result in a quick uptick in convection during the day Sunday across much of North Texas where we`ll have 30-60% PoPs. A moisture rich atmosphere featuring fairly weak low and mid level flow should favor slow moving thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy rainfall. Given the broad but continued synoptic ascent through the overnight hours with little capping, convection may persist well into the nighttime hours Sunday night beyond the normal summertime diurnal convective cycle. The weak frontal boundary and mid level trough will continue to sag farther south on Monday with rain chances continuing primarily along and south of I-20 where we`ll continue with 40-60% PoPs. As we get into the middle part of the week, the mid level ridging to the north will expand a bit farther south and should push the bulk of the rain/storm chances well into Central TX. We`ll continue with some 20-30% PoPs Tuesday into Wednesday mainly south of I-20. While the threat for severe weather appears to be pretty low during this time, we will have to monitor for some potential heavy rainfall given a setup favoring persistent moisture transport into North and Central TX and persistent synoptic forcing for ascent. In an uncapped and unstable environment, we can often see bands of training rainfall set up with little advance notice of location. That being said, the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe will feature some of the higher rain chances that we`ve seen in a while along with slightly cooler temperatures given the increased cloud cover. Things will wind down toward the middle and latter part of next week with temperatures climbing back above seasonal normals. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around 15 kt. No significant aviation concerns expected through the period. Dunn/Purlee && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 97 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 101 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$