566
FXUS64 KFWD 121036
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through Friday. The
  highest flood threat will shift slowly east across Central
  Texas. Isolated strong storms with small hail and gusty winds
  are possible.

- Rain chances will decrease over the weekend and early next week,
  but a warming trend will begin with highs in the 90s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue moving east this
morning, with the flood threat now east of the I-35 corridor.
Training thunderstorms will continue to dump copious amounts of
rain across Central Texas, resulting in another 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall. Isolated areas will continue to have the potential for
rainfall totals up to 5 to 7 inches. The main round of rain today
will be the ongoing showers and storms which should exit the
region mid to late morning. However, additional scattered showers
and storms may develop through the afternoon near and east of
I-35. The Flood Watch currently runs through 7 pm this evening,
but we will monitor for a potential early cancellation depending
on how things evolve throughout the day today.

The previous forecast remains in good shape this morning, so no
major adjustments were needed. Some minor tweaks were made to
PoPs on Friday, mainly to expand low storm chances further west
across North Texas where isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible throughout the day.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage along
and west of the I-35 corridor late this evening, with this trend
expected to continue for the remainder of the night. Slow storm
motions and cell training will attribute to a threat for flash
flooding tonight. The latest WoFS runs continue to advertise a
few 5-7+" bullseyes across portions of Central Texas through
approximately 4 am this morning generally south of I-20 and
near/west of I-35/Highway 6. The ongoing convective activity will
likely merge into an MCS through the remainder of the night, which
will continue to slowly move east across the forecast area during
the day today. Shortly after sunrise this morning, the main flash
flood threat will shift east of the I-35 corridor. In these
areas, an additional 2-4" of rain can be expected on average
today, with isolated areas (10% coverage) seeing rainfall totals
between 5-7". The severe weather threat will remain low overnight
and Thursday, but isolated strong to marginally severe storms
can`t be ruled out. Small hail and gusty winds would be the main
threats. The tornado threat will also remain low but not entirely
zero. The main area to watch for an isolated tornado will be
across Central/Southeast Texas later tonight and into Tuesday
morning.

The upper low responsible for this period of active weather and
heavy rain will become increasingly displaced from North and
Central Texas Thursday night into Friday, shunting the best rain
chances into the Deep South. However, mid-level ridging will
remain well to our west, with a couple of weak shortwaves expected
to pass overhead. With moisture and instability both still in
abundance, we`ll maintain some low storm chances through Friday,
primarily east of the I-35 corridor. This activity could pose a
threat for isolated severe hail and damaging winds, especially
Friday afternoon. A lack of any noteworthy forcing mechanisms
will keep storm coverage fairly isolated. Otherwise, below normal
temperatures will continue today with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A warming trend will begin on Friday as highs return to
the 90s across portions of the area, but temperatures will still
be near or slightly below normal for most locations.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/
/Friday Night Onward/

A slow-moving upper trough with an enclosed low will continue
shifting northeast and away from the region this weekend as a
mid/upper ridge builds in from the west. Rain chances will hence
decrease and shift east into the eastern counties of North and
Central Texas this weekend into the early part of next week. One
exception may be Saturday night, when recent operational
deterministic guidance has indicated a complex of storms
developing in Oklahoma and pushing south through North Texas
around the east flank of the ridge. That scenario is not unusual
for June, so POPs may need to be raised for areas north of I-20
for Saturday night. If this MCS does develop, a brief damaging
wind concern could materialize for the Red River counties.

Whatever the case, temperatures climb to above-normal values late
weekend through the middle of next week. At this time it looks
like the warmest weather will occur on Tuesday, when highs will
range from the lower 90s in the southeast to near 100 in the
northwest. The ridge will break down Wednesday into next Thursday
as a shortwave moves east across the Rockies, bringing additional
storm chances along with slightly cooler temperatures mid to late
next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the region this
morning, with this activity expected to gradually exit to the east
mid to late morning. The thunderstorm activity should finally be
south/east of the terminals, but can`t entirely rule out a stray
lightning strike for the next couple of hours. We`ll need to
monitor for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon along/east of the I-35 corridor, but there is low
confidence in if and/or where this activity will develop.

Otherwise, MVFR/intermittent IFR ceilings will continue this
morning. Some improvements are expected by late morning, with VFR
returning early to mid afternoon. Have introduced MVFR ceilings
overnight Thursday night, as confidence is increasing that we`ll
see another round of stratus. However, timing is still a bit
uncertain and may need to be adjusted in future issuances. In the
wake of the departing showers and storms, winds may swing out of
the east or even northeast through the afternoon. Fortunately,
wind speeds should remain around 5 to 7 knots during this time
period, with southeast winds returning this evening.

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  72  90  76  92 /  40   5  20  10  10
Waco                82  71  88  74  90 /  50   5  20   5  10
Paris               76  69  86  72  87 /  80  30  40  20  20
Denton              83  69  91  73  92 /  40   5  20  10  10
McKinney            80  70  89  74  91 /  60  10  20  10  10
Dallas              82  71  91  76  92 /  50   5  20  10  10
Terrell             80  70  88  73  90 /  70  10  20  10  20
Corsicana           82  73  89  75  91 /  70  10  30   5  20
Temple              84  71  90  74  91 /  50   5  20   5  20
Mineral Wells       85  69  93  73  93 /  10   5  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-117>123-
130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$