Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
636 FXUS64 KFWD 302254 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 454 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 12 AM to 11 AM Saturday due to wind chills ranging from 0 to 15 degrees. - Much colder temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected Saturday into Sunday. - A warm up will occur Sunday through early next week, with rain chances returning to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 Late morning water vapor imagery shows a broad longwave trough stretching from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast, with shortwave energy embedded within the flow continuing to dig southeastward across the Plains. At the surface, a sprawling high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is beginning to sag southward and is expected to strengthen the pressure gradient across the Southern Plains by this evening. Ahead of this, afternoon temperatures will remain seasonably cool, generally in the 40s to lower 50s with light northerly winds around 10 mph or less. Tonight, a reinforcing push of colder air will move in behind a secondary cold front resulting in another night of widespread freezing temperatures. This boundary is expected to reach North Texas shortly after sunset, with a more pronounced increase in north winds (up to 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 25 mph) developing after 9 PM. The resulting cold air advection will drive temperatures well into the teens north of the I-20 corridor and into the low to mid 20s across Central Texas by sunrise Saturday. The combination of cold temperatures and brisk winds will yield wind chills ranging from near 0 up to around 10 degrees across North Texas and 9 to 15 degrees farther south. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the entire region from midnight through Saturday morning amid these dangerously cold conditions. Only a modest moderation of temperatures is expected during the daytime hours on Saturday as surface high pressure slides southeast into Oklahoma and weak height rises ensue aloft. Despite increasing insolation, highs will once again remain below seasonal norms (ranging from the low 30s to near 40 degrees) with continued north/northeast flow. While weak perturbations in the NW flow could induce areas of mid/high cloudiness at times, any precipitation potential remains well displaced to the north during this period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 A fairly progressive and amplified pattern will persist into early next week with broad troughing remaining entrenched over the eastern half of the U.S. and a more zonal to northwesterly flow regime extending across the Southern Plains. In the wake of Saturday`s reinforcing cold push, quiet and dry weather will continue through early next week. Surface high pressure will slowly shift eastward, allowing low-level flow to gradually veer to the south by Sunday. This will result in a modest warming trend beginning Sunday, with highs returning to the 60s for most areas by Monday afternoon. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement on a shortwave digging through the Southwest before emerging over the Southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. In response, surface cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern plains, allowing for a better return of low-level moisture and increasing rain chances across North and Central Texas beginning early Tuesday. The degree of moisture return still appears modest given the recent cold/dry pattern, but enough recovery looks likely to support at least scattered showers, primarily across Central and East Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night. While instability will be meager, some embedded convection can`t be ruled out near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Severe storms are not expected at this time. A cold front is expected to accompany or follow this system, ushering in another round of cold and dry air for the latter half of the week. Current guidance favors a return to subfreezing temperatures by Wednesday night into Thursday morning across much of the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 451 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026 A reinforcing shot of colder air will surge southward this evening with gusty north winds and some scattered clouds. The front is currently moving through central Oklahoma and should spread through the D10 airspace around midnight. Light northerly winds will increase to 15G25KT for much of the night before diminishing during the morning hours on Saturday. VFR should prevail through the period although there may be some SCT/BKN050 cigs late tonight. Otherwise, VFR will prevail on Saturday with north winds around 10 kt. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 19 34 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 25 37 22 54 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 15 32 20 46 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 14 32 19 53 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 16 32 20 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 20 35 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 18 34 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 23 37 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 24 40 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 18 36 20 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Saturday for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162- 174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Dunn