Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
762 FXUS64 KFWD 301836 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 136 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will persist through the week. Increasing humidity may push heat indices near advisory levels by Tuesday or Wednesday. - Most areas will remain dry through Monday, with low rain chances returning to eastern Central Texas Tuesday through Thursday as Gulf moisture increases. - Elevated fire weather concerns will persist, especially across western North Texas, due to hot temperatures, low afternoon humidity, and worsening drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 The subtropical ridge will continue shifting east toward the Mid- Mississippi Valley through Monday while remaining the dominant influence across North and Central Texas. Hot and dry conditions will persist, though modest height falls and slightly cooler low/mid-level temperatures should shave a degree or two off Monday`s highs. Triple digit temperatures will still be common across much of North Texas, with upper 90s more prevalent farther south. Despite the eastward moving ridge, the better moisture and convective signal should remain closer to the Gulf Coast and Southeast Texas this afternoon, so no measurable rain chances were included locally. Southerly winds will be a little stronger this afternoon than in recent days, while aggressive daytime mixing continues to lower relative humidity across most of the region. Combined with very dry fuels and worsening drought, this will maintain elevated fire weather concerns through early evening, especially across western North Texas. Apparent temperatures should remain fairly close to the ambient temperature through Monday as afternoon moisture continues to mix out efficiently, keeping heat headlines unnecessary for now. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 The upper ridge axis will remain east of the region through much of the week, keeping North and Central Texas hot while opening the door for somewhat deeper Gulf moisture to spread inland from the southeast. A weak surface low associated with a tropical wave will move west beneath the ridge early to midweek. Guidance continues to keep the surface reflection weak, but deeper moisture should accompany the wave, allowing low rain chances to edge into our southeastern counties from Tuesday through Thursday while North Texas remains dry. Temperatures should change little through the period, but increasing low-level moisture may become more important for heat impacts than the air temperatures themselves. Heat indices may begin approaching advisory criteria by Tuesday or Wednesday, particularly across the more humid eastern and southeastern portions of the area. Confidence decreases somewhat toward next weekend as guidance diverges on the eventual ridge placement, but no clear signal yet supports a significant break from the prevailing hot pattern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the current TAF period with mostly clear skies, southerly winds around 10 to 12 knots, and occasional gusts to 15 to 20 knots through the afternoon. No thunderstorms are expected near the D10 terminals or KACT through the period, with the better moisture and convective potential remaining well south and east of the region. Winds should ease somewhat overnight with speeds settling around 8 to 10 knots through Monday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 76 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 78 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 74 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12