289
FXUS64 KFWD 141732
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions expected today and Saturday with
  isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms along and east of
  I-35 (20-40% chance).

- A complex of thunderstorms may push into parts of North Texas
  Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance).

- Low rain chances (15-25%) continue into early next week with
  temperatures warming into the mid 90s by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms currently over Central
Oklahoma will shift east-southeast this afternoon potentially
swiping a few of our Red River counties, namely Grayson, Fannin,
and Lamar in 2-3 hours. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be
possible in the stronger segments of the line. Scattered
convection will also shift into our southeastern, Brazos Valley
counties this afternoon and evening. The stronger cores will
produce brief, heavy rainfall and lightning. Otherwise, expect a
warm, humid afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak
heat indices in the 98-105 degree range.

North and Central Texas will remain on the northeastern periphery
of a building mid-level ridge over West Texas and New Mexico
through the short-term forecast period. This will keep northerly
flow aloft and allow another thunderstorm complex to shift out of
Oklahoma toward our forecast area Sunday morning. High-resolution
guidance has come into larger agreement that this complex of
storms will push south of the I-20 corridor by midday Sunday
before dissipating during the afternoon. However, the ultimate
track of this system will be determined by its origin, so
confidence is still on the lower end regarding its placement.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but isolated 50+ mph
wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of this
thunderstorm complex with the best chances for strong winds
residing north of the I-20 corridor. Scattered convection is
likely in our Brazos Valley counties again tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be similar to today.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/
/Sunday Night Onward/

We will have additional opportunities for MCS activity to cross
the Red River into North Texas Sunday night into Monday. Much of
the latest guidance is beginning to hone in on the development of
an MCS (or two) during this time period. While there are still
significant discrepancies in the timing and location of these
storms, there`s certainly a strong enough signal to warrant an
increase in PoPs. For now, have kept them capped at 20-30%, but
they may be increased further as confidence increases over the
next couple of days. Any MCS activity that makes its way into
North Texas would be accompanied by a damaging wind threat, so
ensure you monitor the forecast this weekend for the latest
information.

Otherwise, flow aloft will become more zonal Tuesday and
Wednesday as a mid-level ridge to our west shifts slightly
towards the area. As a result, rain chances will be near-zero
Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge axis may retreat back to the
west late Wednesday, resulting in the brief return of
north/northwest flow aloft. This will allow low rain chances to
return Wednesday night and Thursday as another shortwave trough
clips the region. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected
throughout the week, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s and warm/muggy mornings in the 70s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

SCT MVFR cigs will continue to lift this afternoon with VFR and
south flow at 7-12 kts prevailing through much of the TAF period.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected across parts
of North and Central Texas later this afternoon and evening, but
this activity should largely remain SE/E/NE of the D10 sites (~20%
chance of an isolated storm within D10). A boundary will shift
northwestward out of SE Texas this afternoon potentially bringing
isolated convection into parts of Central Texas this evening.
Greatest potential for an isolated shower or storm in the vicinity
of KACT will be in between 22Z-01Z, however coverage is expected
to remain too low for a TAF mention. The rest of the overnight
should remain rain-free with MVFR likely returning to at least
Central Texas after 09Z tonight.

Looking ahead, the latest CAMs have been highlighting a
thunderstorm complex shifting out of Oklahoma into the Metroplex
toward the end of this TAF period. Confidence is too low at the
moment to include a VCTS mention after 16Z Sunday for this
potential activity, but an addition may be needed in future
forecast updates.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  75  91  76  93 /  20  10  30  30  30
Waco                91  75  90  74  91 /  20   5  30  20  20
Paris               87  73  88  73  88 /  30  10  30  30  30
Denton              92  75  92  74  93 /  20   5  30  30  30
McKinney            90  74  91  74  91 /  20  10  30  30  30
Dallas              93  76  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  30  30
Terrell             89  73  88  74  90 /  20  10  30  30  30
Corsicana           90  74  89  75  90 /  20   5  30  20  20
Temple              91  74  91  73  92 /  20   5  30  20  20
Mineral Wells       93  74  93  74  95 /  10   0  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$