Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
327 FXUS64 KFWD 201200 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms occur on and off this morning. Some storms could produce small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. - Widespread showers and storms are expected this afternoon and night. The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding, particularly for areas that receive both rounds of heavy rain. Central Texas will have a low-end tornado threat. - Additional storm chances return late this weekend into early next week that could lead to additional flooding. && .UPDATE... Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 The biggest changes to the forecast this morning were to refine PoPs from latest guidance and radar trends, as well as expanding the Flood Watch to include additional portions of North and Central Texas up to around the US-380 corridor through midnight tonight. Clusters of showers and storms remain ongoing across North Texas this morning as a shortwave disturbance moves overhead. This round of activity will continue to move off to the northeast the rest of this morning, with another late-morning round already developing to our southwest. Torrential rainfall continues to occur in the more robust storms, with observation sites around the DFW Metroplex towards the Red River observing ~1-2.5" of rainfall over the last 6 hours thanks to training thunderstorms. This will be the area to watch over this afternoon and evening for flash flooding as our more substantial round of activity along the front moves through. Central Texas continues to be the area to keep an eye on for the low tornado potential this afternoon as they have remained unscathed from this morning`s convection and will not be as worked over. Low-level wind fields will be more favorable for a localized tornado threat. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1258 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 While the parent closed low of our mid-late week storm system remains centered over northwest Mexico (specifically Baja California and Sonora), minute shortwaves ejecting out ahead into the Southern Plains are spreading enough lift to promote SW-NE moving showers and thunderstorms in portions of North and Central Texas as of midnight. Showers and storms will continue to develop through the morning hours, mainly impacting the northwestern two- thirds of our CWA with this first wave. The overall severe threat with this wave is low, however, we cannot rule out small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain with any more robust storm that is able to over-perform. The tornado threat through this morning continues to be low as our low-level wind fields remains unfavorable. The upper low to our west will continue to move east over the rest of today, continuing to spread increased lift across the region. Additional convective development is expected late this morning and early afternoon just to our west along the dryline/Pacific front as shortwaves continue to eject out of the parent low. As showers and storms develop along the front, favored storm mode will be messy clusters and lines. Over the course of this afternoon and evening the Pacific front and associated convection will be ushered east as the upper low swings into the TX/OK Panhandles. Additionally, some storms could become strong to severe with small hail and strong winds. The tornado potential is currently low, but will need to be more closely watched this afternoon and evening as low-level wind fields are a bit more favorable during this time period. With multiple waves of showers and storms expected over the next 24-36 hours, training convection from this afternoon`s wave will increase the expected flooding threat. This is particularly true for areas that will receive heavy rain from any of the ongoing (early-mid morning) activity, as well as any low-lying or flood- prone spots. All in all, those that receive both waves of storms and/or training convection will likely see rainfall totals of 1-2" with isolated spots up to 4". Those that see more isolated coverage of rain through Friday will have lower rainfall totals, respectively. The Flood Watch remains in effect until midnight tonight for western portions of Central Texas, but may need be expanded in area to the north/northeast later this morning. The bulk of convection will continue east overnight into Friday, with this activity expected to exit into East Texas just after midnight. Lingering showers and storms will be possible in portions of our East and Central Texas counties through the first half of Friday as the Pacific front exits the region. The system`s true cold front will not breach our Red River counties until late in the day on Friday, so expect afternoon highs to peak in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1258 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 The aforementioned cold front will slide through as we head into this upcoming weekend, bringing cooler afternoon temperatures in the 60s and 70s. To our west, another closed low will swing from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains over the end of the weekend into next week, signifying another period of increased rain chances early-mid next week. There is still uncertainty regarding exact rain amounts and locations of highest rainfall totals, as this will be dependent on the location of surface cyclogenesis. Latest long-range guidance is now pushing this surface feature further north (which would lead to lower rainfall totals), compared to previous model runs that had the surface low developing overtop North and Central Texas (had higher forecast totals). This will need to be watched as we head through this week when higher resolution guidance begins to pick this time period up. Similar to the pattern in the short term forecast above, the system`s cold front will likely move through sometime midweek at the end of the forecast period, bringing another drop in temperatures to be thankful for. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 D10: The first wave of storms has exited D10, with VFR temporarily returning. The next morning wave is progged to reach the D10 airports between 14-1430Z, and should be another couple of hours of on and off MVFR/IFR cigs/vis as well as heavy rain, erratic, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Expect another lull in precipitation and improvement in flight conditions over early afternoon before the main round of showers and storms move through with much of the same impacts as above. Once the line exits D10 late tonight (04Z), expect deteriorating cigs and visibilities with more southwesterly winds. ACT: ACT has escaped the morning convection, but will continue to observe MVFR cigs through the morning until they lift back to VFR around noon. ACT will be impacted by the late afternoon round of storms, with greatest impact between 22-02Z this evening where heavy rain, erratic, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are expected. Once the line exits D10 late tonight (04Z), expect deteriorating cigs and visibilities with more southwesterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 62 77 53 / 90 90 20 0 Waco 78 63 77 53 / 80 80 40 10 Paris 75 62 75 50 / 90 90 30 0 Denton 74 57 75 47 / 90 80 20 0 McKinney 75 61 76 50 / 90 90 20 0 Dallas 76 63 77 54 / 90 90 30 0 Terrell 77 63 78 51 / 80 80 40 10 Corsicana 80 66 79 55 / 60 80 50 10 Temple 79 62 79 53 / 70 80 50 10 Mineral Wells 74 56 79 47 / 90 80 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ102>105-117>121-130>134- 141>146-156>159. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater