880
FXUS63 KGID 240633
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
133 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms could clip eastern parts of the area this
  morning, but otherwise dry conditions are favored through
  today.

- Thunderstorms arrive from the west this evening into tonight.
  The main severe threat remains over western Nebraska, but a
  few strong to marginally severe storms are possible (5%
  chance).

- Thunderstorms redevelop late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
  evening. Some of these storms may become severe.

- There are only low chances (20%) for rain/thunderstorms on
  Wednesday and Thursday. Better chances return Thursday night,
  and off-and-on chances continue through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Recent CAMs suggest that most (if not all) of convective
development should remain over eastern Nebraska/Kansas this
morning. Its not impossible that areas near Highway 81 see a
brief shower/storm, but most of the area will remain dry during
the daytime today. Plenty of sunshine this afternoon should
allow for near- normal high temperatures (80s to low 90s).

Convection is once again expected to develop over the Sandhills
late this afternoon, and it may approach western areas this
evening into tonight. Most HREF members show storms weakening
as they approach central Nebraska, but the convective
parameters remain favorable for at least a few strong to
marginally severe storms (which the 00Z HRRR hints at).

Tuesday is the primary day to watch for severe weather. A more
defined upper wave will potentially allow for convective
initiation much earlier in the day. Exact details remain
uncertain and are somewhat dependent on how things evolve
tonight. But there is potential for one or more clusters of
storms of storms to move through the area in the 3pm to 10pm
timeframe. Damaging wind would be the primary threat, but some
marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out as well.

Scattered showers/storms could linger into Tuesday night, but
overall drier conditions are favored for Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Currently...

An upper level shortwave disturbance sliding southeast across
portions of the Central Plains has resulted in a damp end to the
weekend for a good chunk of the forecast area today...with activity
taking its sweet time pushing through eastern portions this
afternoon. This disturbance is embedded in continued larger scale
northwesterly flow...set up in a well amplified pattern across the
CONUS. The main area of high pressure continues to sit over the
Desert SW, with ridging extending northward through the
Rockies...sandwiched between a large area of low pressure spinning
over the Great Lakes with troughing dominating the East Coast, and
another area of low pressure pushing east along the WA/Canada
border. Outside of at times heavy rainfall rates, this activity
hasn`t amounted to a whole lot...as better instability has remained
focused off to the west of the forecast area. Satellite imagery has
shown the development of quite a range of cloud cover across the
area...with mostly cloudy skies across the eastern half, more sun
further west. This has resulted in mid-afternoon temps ranging from
the mid 60s in the east to the low 80s in the far southwest...though
those eastern areas still have the potential for late day highs if
the cloud cover diminishes. At the surface, the forecast area sits
between high pressure gradually working its way east and a deeper
trough axis along the High Plains...bringing southeasterly winds
this afternoon, at times gusting near 20 MPH.

Tonight into Monday...

For most locations, the forecast for this evening and tonight
remains dry. Models continue to show the potential for at least
scattered showers/storms developing late tonight (mainly
around/after midnight) into the early morning hours on
Monday...focused along the edge of a SSWrly low-level jet. Models
remain consistent showing the best potential for this activity is
across eastern portions of mainly our Nebraska counties...but vary
some on just how far west coverage actually gets. Chances remain in
the 20-40 percent range, with overall lift looking to be on the
weaker side, currently not expecting notable coverage of activity.
Not out of the question that a few storm could be on the strong side
with MUCAPE potentially around 1500 j/kg, but the threat for severe
weather continues to look low.

Any activity that lingers into the daytime hours on Monday is
expected to diminish by mid-morning...with the remainder of the day
and at least part of the evening currently dry. Models showing
little change in the overall upper level pattern, with the main
high/ridging remaining over the Desert SW and Rockies. Forecast has
lighter winds turning more easterly through the day, speeds topping
out around 10-15 MPH. Expecting to have a bump up in afternoon
highs, with generally mid 80s across central/eastern portions of our
NE counties, with upper 80s-low 90s further south and west.

Monday night into Tuesday...

A little more uncertainty with preciptiation chances works its way
back into the forecast late Monday evening into the overnight hours.
Looking aloft, models showing that upper level low currently over
WA/Canad having continued trekking ENE...ending up over south-
central Canada by Monday evening. A southward extending sfc front
(although on the weaker side) and shortwave energy looks to spark
off afternoon thunderstorm development over portions of the Dakotas
into the Sandhills...the main question then turning to how much of
that activity works its way into our forecast area overnight. There
are some notable differences between models...some showing little
diminishment in activity as it moves in...others with notable waning
with time. Made no changes to the NBM PoPs Monday night-Tuesday AM,
which have a notable range from the 20 percent range in the ESE to
50-60 percent range further WNW. At this point, this activity is not
expected to be severe.

Some questions then linger through the daytime hours on Tuesday into
evening/overnight...if activity does move in, how long into the day
does it linger, and what impact could it have on the next expected
round of thunderstorms to move through the region. Plenty of details
to iron out in the next 48hrs...but additional shortwave energy is
expected to fire off another round of thunderstorms off to our NW,
but exactly where is a little uncertain at least partly due to where
any sfc frontal boundaries may ultimately be/set up. There will be
the potential for another MCS to sink SSE across the region...with
models showing both better instability and shear developing to tap
into. This will bring better potential for storms to be strong to
severe...and the entire forecast area remains included in the SPC
Day 3 Marginal/Slight risk areas, with the Slight risk area roughly
from the Tri-Cities southwest-ward into western KS.

Wednesday and on...

Moving into Wednesday, the same overall pattern of ridging over
the Rockies and troughing in the east holds in place with upper
level northwest flow holding in place over the region. High
temps stay consistent in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday.
Currently models are suggesting drier conditions on Wednesday
with more storm potential beginning overnight into Thursday.
However, as long as the northwest flow remains in place any
shortwaves/disturbances through the pattern will bring potential
for precip/storm development.

Moving into Friday and the weekend, model guidance suggests a change
in the upper level pattern as the ridging over the Rockies broadens
into the plains creating a more zonal westerly flow, however a
slight northwest component remains in place. A slight rise in the
mid/upper level heights accompanies this pattern shift. With the
rise in heights, a slight warming pattern occurs with high temps
reaching into the mid 80s-low 90s on Friday before rising into the
upper 80s-mid to upper 90s on Saturday/Sunday. While the northwest
flow is not as strong, shortwaves and disturbances moving through
this pattern continue to bring chances of convection, especially in
the overnight hours. Models are not super consistent on which days
have the best chance for storm development but the chance for storms
will likely remain in place until the larger pattern breaks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry, VFR conditions expected through the TAF. A high level
stratus layer from decaying convection is starting to make its
way eastward in the area. Skies will be mostly clear by this
afternoon/evening, before another midlevel cloud layer moves in
near the end of the TAF due to some approaching thunderstorms
(that may impact the next TAF). While some spotty
showers/thunderstorms are still possible (10-15%) this morning,
confidence has decreased that they will affect the terminals
(models have pushed them eastward), hence their removal from the
TAF. SE surface winds between 5-7kt are expected to continue
through the morning hours, becoming more southerly late this morning,
and returning to SE by the afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...ADP/McGrew
AVIATION...Scott