403
FXUS63 KGID 080535
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1135 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will move through tonight and bring big
  changes for the weekend - including strong NW wind gusts 35-45
  MPH, elevated fire weather, and much colder temperatures. Wind
  chills in the single digits to mid teens likely Sunday AM!

- After bottoming out in the lower teens Monday AM, unseasonably
  warm temperatures return Tuesday and continue much of next
  week. Several days of highs in the 60s (at least) are expected.

- Light rain showers may clip NE portions of the forecast area
  late tonight into Saturday AM, and additional sprinkles and/or
  flurries will be possible Saturday evening/night. Otherwise,
  dry conditions likely for the next 7+ days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

It`s turned into a pretty nice, albeit a bit breezy, end to the
work week with mostly sunny skies helping temperatures rise into
the 60s to near 70 area wide. Pleasant conditions will continue
into/through the evening as winds decrease around sunset and
high clouds increase from the west.

A strong cold front remains on track to slice through the region
tonight - generally in the 09Z to 13Z time frame. A sfc low
pressure center, attendant to the cold front and associated
upper disturbance, will track right over the CWA from NW to SE.
To the N/NE of the low, areas of light rain showers/sprinkles
will be possible. Greatest chances for our area will be along
and NE of a line from Greeley to York. Not expecting much for
amounts ourselves, but not too far to the N & NE of the area
could get some decent rain and even some accumulating snowfall.
The main story for the daytime hours Saturday will be the strong
NWrly winds gusting 35-45 MPH, and perhaps even around 50 MPH
in the Ord, NE area. Some sun will help take the edge off the
wind a little bit, and highs should manage to make it into the
50s.

A reinforcing shot of (even) cold(er) air will surge southward
Sat eve/night, and this will be the real slap in the face to our
recent warm/mild conditions. In fact, temperatures plummeting
into the teens combined with continued blustery N winds will
drive wind chill values into the single digits to mid teens by
Sunday morning! The strong cold air advection Sat eve could
easily squeeze out some sprinkles and/or flurries per recent
simulated reflectivity progs and associated forecast soundings.
Have expanded this mention later into the evening and further S.
Shouldn`t be heavy enough to amount to any accumulations (rain
or snow), just know there could be some light precipitation in
the blustery N winds and falling temps Sat eve/night.

Surface high pressure will gradually build into the region on
Sunday and allow for decreasing winds. Latest deterministic EC
remains consistent in building the core of a nearly 1040mb high
pressure center into the local area Sunday night into Monday AM,
which would really allow for temps to tank to coldest levels of
the season. Latest forecast blend calls for widespread lows in
the teens, but latest CONSMOS and NBM 10-25th percentile
suggests some single digits can`t be ruled out from around
Lexington to Ord. Far cry from the 60s we have now!

Fortunately, the sharp cold spell is going to be a brief one as
upper ridging and unseasonably warm temperatures return in
earnest on Tuesday and persist through the end of the week.
Despite the calendar showing the middle of November, it`s
looking increasingly likely we`ll be able to squeeze out
multiple days with highs in the 60s, perhaps even 70s in spots,
Tuesday through at least Friday of next week. Pattern MAY turn a
bit cooler (though may still be mild) and more active towards
days 8-10.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cold front moves through the area around 09-12z, with winds
switching to the northwest behind the frontal passage and
increasing. Sustained winds around 15kts, gusting 20-25kts are
expected behind the cold front on Saturday, gradually increasing
towards the late morning hours. The strongest winds are
expected during the afternoon, sustained around 20-25kts, and
gusting 30-35kts. Winds gradually decrease after sunset on
Saturday, as gusts fall below 20kts around the end of the TAF
period.

Briefly MVFR ceilings are possible around the cold
frontal passage, but the best chances look to remain northeast
of the TAF sites, and decided to keep this potential indicated
with a FEW-SCT015 mention. SCT-BKN clouds around 050-100 are
expected Saturday afternoon. Around sunset on Saturday, MVFR
stratus moves into KGRI, and continues through the end of the
TAF period. Kept MVFR conditions out of KEAR, as stratus looks
to stay just north/east of the terminal.



&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Davis