649
FXUS63 KGLD 211723
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1123 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe weather possible late this afternoon into
  tonight. Very low confidence in storm development and
  coverage. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  hazards. Overall, severe weather potential appears to be lower
  than yesterday (Thursday).

- Weekend precipitation chances mainly at night with showers and
  storms moving out of Colorado. Severe chances will be low with
  this activity.

- Heat peaks today, then slightly cooler over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026


Overview: NW flow aloft will gradually weaken in this period,
as an amplifying upper level ridge over the Rockies expands
eastward over the High Plains.

Today-Tonight: Expect sensible weather conditions similar to
Thursday, albeit warmer with highs in the mid-upper 90`s. Very
low confidence in thunderstorm development, coverage and severe
weather potential. Environmental conditions remain supportive of
severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However, in such a weak forcing regime, precipitation
chances and severe weather potential will, once again, largely
be tied to upstream development. High-res guidance presently
suggests a potential for scattered diurnal convection on the
Palmer Divide in eastern CO late this afternoon, when/where
localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible with any storms.
Organized severe weather would likely need to be `imported`,
i.e. upstream convection propagating into the Goodland CWA
during the evening hours, similar to yesterday. Simulated
reflectivity forecasts via high-res convection allowing guidance
vary considerably from model-to-model and run-to-run, as is
typically the case in weak forcing regimes. -Vincent

For the weekend, the ridge migrates eastward on Saturday with
the axis over eastern Colorado. Southwest flow over the Rockies
will initiate afternoon convection which will move northeast
across the plains Saturday night. Some of this remnant
convection will reach areas generally north of Interstate 70 in
the evening and overnight hours, but probably in a much weakened
state. On Sunday the ridge moves south into the Texas panhandle
area, with a zonal flow over the top in Colorado and Kansas. An
embedded wave will once again initiate convection over the
mountains and Front Range, reaching the area Sunday night. If it
gets here early enough may see a limited wind and hail threat,
mainly in Colorado, where SBCAPE is forecast up to 1500 j/kg and
deep layer shear up to 30 kts. Storms will tend to weaken into
Sunday night with mainly a marginal wind threat.

Temperatures peak on Friday with upper 90s to near 100, but then
will be slightly cooler over the weekend behind the front with
highs around 90 both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting the extended period Monday, 597 dam high pressure is
forecast to be in place over the SW CONUS. As long as it remains
situated in that position the potential for lobes of vorticity
to move around the high will keep our shower and storm potential
in play. The current forecast for the precipitation continues
to look reasonable as guidance has been coming into better
agreement with shortwave moving off of the Rockies during the
afternoon hours on Monday and possibly an even stronger wave
Tuesday as well. Do have some concerns about Monday however as
CAPE and shear may be a bit lacking which seems like a decent
scenario for outflow to get out ahead of storms and they
dissipate which which ECMWF ensemble qpf output on most members
suggest that this could be a realistic concern. Both may have
the potential for severe weather but Tuesday is currently
forecast to have a bit better CAPE and shear. Some qpf outputs
are also showing the potential for heavy rainfall as well so may
need to keep an eye on some flooding issues as well.

Wednesday and into the latter part of the week, guidance
suggests that heights rise as some ridge amplification occurs
which is synoptically favored to help suppress any additional
storm development. If this signal were to change then a similar
pattern to Monday and Tuesday would ensue and keep our daily
storm chances in play.

High temperatures are continued to be forecast in the 90s for
the extended period. 850mb moisture is forecast to remain in
place as well which will help keep temperatures in the lower to
mid 90s instead of warming up into the upper 90s to even triple
digits. However if the overall high pressure were to shift
northward a little more then the higher temperatures could be
realized.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop through
the afternoon, with low probabilities of directly impacting
either KGLD or KMCK. Tonight, some modest increase in coverage
may increase the chances of a thunderstorm, especially at KMCK,
with brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility due to rain.
Overnight, a cold front will move through around 12z with
surface winds shifting to the east. The front may result in
patchy fog and a period of low clouds, mainly at KGLD, through
early Saturday morning. A return to VFR is expected by mid
morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024