950
FXUS63 KGLD 122332
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday night has a better chance for showers (30-50% chance).
  Patches of dense fog may also form.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Wednesday could see the return
  of strong winds with gusts above 50 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mid morning observations showed a cold front had moved about
halfway through the area. The front should be through the entire
area by the early afternoon hours. With front through the area,
winds should be from the north with drier air in place at the
surface. With this, dry conditions are forecast with mostly
clear skies. Temperatures should generally level out in the 70s
and low 80s. Mid to upper level moisture should stream over the
area late in the day and increase cloud cover.

Tonight, mostly cloudy skies are forecast as the higher level
moisture moves in. The moisture moving in may allow for a few
higher based showers to form, similar to the last few days. If
the showers do form, they will likely provide minimal
accumulation as the front brings in dewpoints in the 20s and 30s
near the surface. Winds should lower with higher pressure
slowly moving in and with the surface low broadening and
becoming less deep. The current forecast calls for lows to be in
the 40s, but some 30s may be possible in the west due to the
lighter winds if cloud cover can clear.

Monday, the area is forecast to be in southwest flow aloft with
another trough to the west and a ridge amplifying to the south.
So while colder air and higher pressure will move into the
area, we are unlikely to see the coldest air and higher pressure
as it gets deflected north. Highs should still be much cooler
in the 60s with mostly cloudy skies, but not as cold as it could
be. This setup is also forecast to give the area low level flow
from the south/southeast. While unlikely to lead to anything
during the day, the low level flow should advect moisture in and
maybe allow for some showers.

Monday evening and night, low level moisture advection is
forecast to continue. As the air saturates, chances for showers
and fog will increase, favoring the southern parts of the area
where moisture is advecting into. Isentropic analysis suggests
that there will be enough upglide for showers to develop across
most of the area. In areas where it is not raining, the
saturated lower levels and upslope flow from the southeast winds
could allow for pockets of dense fog to form. With the increase
in moisture and cloud cover in the area, low should generally
be around 50, with 40s possible further north if the moisture
doesn`t move in fast enough.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Tuesday is forecast to be a fairly seasonable day as the area
remains in southwest flow aloft and sees clearing from moisture
slowly pushing off to the east. There could still be a few
showers that linger, especially in the east and south.
Otherwise, the cloud cover and lack of airmass change should
have highs around 70. Winds should strengthen a tad as low
pressure redevelops along the Front Range with speeds around 10
to 25 mph.

Wednesday, guidance is becoming more aggressive on the upper
trough in the west advancing east and deepening. In this
scenario, Wednesday would be a warm and windy day. The advancing
trough may help the ridge amplify which would give temperatures
in the 80s, especially with southerly warm air advection. The
winds would become strong as the low on the Front Range would
deepen with the trough and increase the pressure gradient. The
height fields to would become tighter with the advancing trough.
In this scenario, speeds around 25-35 mph and gusts to 60 mph
are possible. If this scenario doesn`t pan out, the trough would
instead broaden as it moves east, lessening how deep it becomes
and how deep the surface low becomes. We would still likely
warm into the 80s, but winds would be more likely to be like
Saturday, with speeds around 20-30 mph and gusts to 50 mph.
Precipitation chances are currently low with dry air forecast to
intrude into the area.

For the end of the week, the current forecast pattern is for
the Plains to be under broad troughing aloft after the main
trough axis swinging through. With this, the area would be more
seasonable with highs in the 60s and 70s and winds around 10-20
mph. Showers and storms are possible, especially on Thursday as
the remainder of the front passes through and potentially drags
some mid-level moisture through with it. We`ll need to keep an
eye out for any reinforcing trough or cold air surge, as that
could allow us to have better chances at reaching freezing
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. NNE winds
at 15-25 knots will decrease to 10-15 knots this evening and
gradually veer to the E by sunrise (~12-14Z Mon). Winds will
veer to the ESE and increase to ~12-17 knots by early-mid Monday
afternoon. Broken or overcast ceilings ~5,000 ft AGL may
develop during the late afternoon.. near the end of the TAF
period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. NNW winds
at ~15 knots will decrease to ~10 knots and veer to the NNE
this evening. Winds will veer to the E after sunrise (~14-15Z
Mon), further veering to the ESE and increasing to ~12-17 knots
by mid-late Monday afternoon. Broken or overcast ceilings
~4,000 ft AGL may develop during the late afternoon.. near the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent