Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
076 FXUS63 KGLD 230335 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 935 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for eastern Colorado early Monday morning, potentially allowing for some patches of frost. - Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Current observations show the elongated upper low over the area as satellite shows clouds swirling over the area. The precipitation has largely moved out of the area, but could see a few additional showers in Eastern Colorado before the afternoon ends. Otherwise, temperatures are warming to the mid to upper 50`s with a few breaks in the cloud cover. This evening and through the night, the upper low is forecast to continue to shift further east and help bring in drier air in the mid-levels which will clear the cloud cover out across the area. While the skies are clearing, the surface winds are forecast to become light as the pressure gradient weakens heavily. With the clear skies and light winds, lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30`s and 40`s, near the dewpoints. There is still a very low chance for patches of frost in Eastern Colorado as temps drop into the 30`s. However, the recent rains are forecast to keep dewpoints a bit higher in the mid to upper 30`s, which will limit the chance for temps to drop to or below 36. If the winds are a bit higher than forecast, there is a chance that drier air can mix in and help lower temps to the mid 30`s. Tomorrow, a sunny day is forecast with dry air across the area. With the clear skies and relatively light winds, temperatures should be fairly warm in the mid to upper 70`s. Tomorrow evening, another shortwave is forecast to move through the Plains from the north and help bring some mid-level moisture and forcing. However, the dry air near the surface is forecast to limit the area to just an increase in cloud coverage and maybe some virga. Lows are forecast to be near 50 with the increase in cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both show dry weather is on tap for the area for the entire extended period. Amplified 500mb ridge will work off the eastern Rockies and move slowly through the central Plains. For the second half of next week, the two models do differ on the placement of this ridge. There is a cutoff system that sets up over the lower Mississippi River Valley/southern Plains. This system does meander and retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF shows the best potential for some increased moisture/clouds to work towards the eastern CWA, but the overall trend keeps this east of the area. There is southerly flow at the surface for much of the extended, which will aid in keeping low level moisture/slightly higher dewpts at least into the eastern portion of the CWA. The result will still keep the area dry with the upper ridge in place w/ near to above normal temperatures for much of the extended. For temps, highs in the 70s on Tuesday will shift slightly higher with a range from the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday through next Saturday, then back to mainly 70s for next Sunday. Overnight lows will range in the 40s from Tuesday night through Thursday night. For Friday night onward, a mix of 40s and 50s is expected with warmest areas mainly along/east of Highway 25. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 935 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z. From 14z-04z, winds establish a southwesterly direction at speeds up to 10kts, backing to the southeast at similar speeds. After 05z, winds become light and variable. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a southerly component at speeds under 10kts from 18z-23z. After 00z, winds back to the southeast at speeds around 6kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...99