226
FXUS63 KGLD 062206
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
406 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering rain and some snow mixed across far western Kit
  Carson and Cheyenne (CO) will slowly wane through the early
  evening.

- Tonight through Thursday morning, temperatures are forecast to
  cool below freezing. A Freeze Warning has been issued for
  areas along and west of Highway 25 and a Frost Advisory for
  areas to the east.

- 20-30% chance of showers and storms Thursday afternoon mainly
  for areas along and north of Highway 36. Wind gusts of 50-60
  mph are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Precipitation continues across the area with the final round of
moderate precipation moving into eastern Colorado as of 16Z as
noted by an enhancement in channel 10 water vapor imagery. RAP
analysis also indicates localized 700mb FGEN which is where
corridors of more persistent precipitation  is forecast to
occur in. Snow continues to be the primary concern across
eastern Colorado as another inch or two is possible especially
across the higher elevations of our three counties. High
pressure is and associated drier air is developing across
eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska which will bring a gradual
end to the precipitation from north to south through the
afternoon hours.

Focus then turns to temperatures for tonight. The high pressure
mentioned above is forecast to be moving across the area leading to
light winds this evening. Clouds as well are forecast to slowly
dissipate through the night leading to potential for a period
of radiational cooling. The signal and confidence for a hard
freeze is not as strong as it was 24 hours ago as this is due to
a surface trough shunting the surface high out of the area
quicker and allowing for more of a downsloping westerly wind to
occur. Winds are also forecast to increase as well to around
15-20 mph sustained with gusts of 25-30 mph. Freeze Warning
still remains due to around 70- 80% confidence in temperatures
falling below 32 degrees but only a round 30-40% of a hard
freeze at this time. Did expand the Freeze Warning from
Hitchcock down through Wichita county after collaboration with
surrounding offices and upgraded the remaining Freeze Watch to a
Frost Advisory and expanded into Graham and Norton counties.
However with the newer support of guidance turning winds to the
southwest quicker does lower confidence of these hazards but
with it being early May and budding or full leafed out
vegetation it was more of an impact based issuance. Also am
watching for some fog development overnight across Cheyenne
(CO), Greeley and Wichita counties as some 850mb moisture
advection remains through around 12Z. This also correlates with
an area of lighter winds as well which would further help
support fog formation. 12Z HREF also supports a 50% chance of
visibility falling below 0.5 miles as well which goes well along
with what 12Z NAM soundings suggest as well with a fairly deep
low level saturation. With all of this opted to include patchy
fog wording into the forecast.

Thursday, northwesterly synoptic flow is forecast to be in place for
the area as warmer temperatures return to the higher as high
temperatures in the 70s are forecast. Breezy winds gusting around 30
mph are forecast to occur across northwest portions of the area
due to a localized 850mb jet developing during the afternoon.
During the afternoon hours a NW to SE oriented shortwave within
the flow is forecast to move through leading to some showers and
thunderstorms mainly for areas along and north of Highway 36.
Severe weather is unlikely but Corfidi  upshear vectors
suggests that there may be some potential for wind gusts of
50-60 mph with weaker effective bulk wind difference and DCAPE
of 750-1000 j/kg. Confidence in severe weather is around 20-30%
at this time and if it were to occur it would favor the 3pm-7pm
MT time frame. With the recent prolonged precipitation not
very concerned with blowing dust potential but still can`t
completely rule it out especially near source regions.
Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast
to continue through the evening but currently thinking is that
these would remain sub severe due to lessening instability.

Similar NW synoptic flow pattern remains in place on Friday with
similar high temperatures forecast. 850mb moisture content is
forecast to be high as well which leads me to believe that
clouds may be bit more pronounced than what guidance is
currently suggesting. Guidance shows increasing pressure
heights which is currently forecast to lead to a dry forecast
for the area. Breezy winds are forecast to be in place as well
with sustained winds around 20 mph gusting 30-35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Saturday temperatures warm up to the low to mid 80s. The lows for
the day remain in the 40s across the County Warning Area (CWA).
Moving on to the winds, gusts reach up to 35 mph from the northwest.
The main threat for Saturday is a shortwave disturbance that brings
along a low pressure system with an associated front / dryline. The
timing of this system looks to be Saturday afternoon into early
Sunday morning. Guidance shows there being a signal for storms and
severe weather. Looking at MUCAPE, there are values in the 1000 J/kg
range. In the warm sector , lapse rates are in the 7.5-8 C/km as
well as dew points in the 50-60 degree range. Looking at sounding
profiles they are currently showing a inverted v profile, which
shows signs of winds being one of the main hazards. NCAR AI-NWP
guidance also shows signals of severe weather in the CWA, which
helps boost confidence. One thing to keep in mind, is there is a
good amount of uncertainty with the timing and location of the
system.

Sunday, highs cool down to the 70s and lows in the 40s. Winds remain
calm throughout the day as well. For precipitation chances, the main
focus would be on the system on Saturday and the timing on when it
moves through the CWA and as we move into the new upper-level
pattern on Monday.

On Monday, the upper level flow begins to transition into a ridge
and will bring warmer temperatures. The high temperatures for the
day will be in high 80s to low 90s, with lows in the low to mid 40s.
There is a low chance (10-15%) of reaching 90 degrees. Winds look to
be in the 20 mph range. However guidance does show some
uncertainties with the probability of gusts above 25 mph is about 25-
50% depending on the scenario. One other thing to note unfortunately
is the Relative Humidity (RH) values. Currently they are forecast to
be in the low to mid teens. There is some uncertainty with how
amplified the ridge becomes. Guidance has shown some possibilities of
the ridge amplifying and also de-amplifying.

Tuesday, the highs are currently forecast in the low to mid 90s. If
the ridge amplifies the probability of exceeding 90 degrees is about
30-50%. The low temperatures look to be in low 50s. Currently, RH
values are trending to be in the teens. The winds are in the same
scenario except with high confidence (30-60%) for seeing winds
higher than 25 mph. The other concern for the winds is the location
the NBM mainly shows the higher values over Yuma and Kit Carson
Counties in CO. The LREF shows the higher values southeast portions
of the CWA.

Wednesday temperatures remain to be warm with highs in the mid to
upper 80s and lows in the low 50s. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-
30 mph range. One future feature to look at is a trough that begins
to develop of the west coast of the US and could be our next system.
This is seven days out so there is a solid amount of uncertainty and
a lot can change.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Pesky and periodic MVFR ceilings continue to linger at GLD but
are forecast to become less frequent for the start of this TAF
period; however dissipating showers are forecast to remain in
place initially. Winds are forecast to become more
southwesterly as the night goes on and increase in strength
with some gusts around 20-25 knots forecast especially for GLD.
MCK looks to be more of a higher sustained wind according to
forecast soundings. VFR conditions are currently forecast to be
in place for the duration of this TAF period but will need to
keep an eye out for some showers and storms especially for MCK
towards the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM
     MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-
     041-042.
     Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday
     for KSZ003-004-015-016-029.
CO...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM MDT Thursday for
     COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM
     MDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079-080.
     Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Thursday
     for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg/Holdren
AVIATION...Trigg