Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 031256

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
656 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Issued at 656 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Update to forecast sent to adjust higher pops southward to follow
the remaining area of rw/trw. The remaining batch of precip
should taper in the next couple hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Around the Tri State region this morning, skies are mainly clear
as much of the CWA lies under a surface ridge that continues a
slow S/SE trek over the central Plains. As with last night, at the
nose/surface ridge axis, there is another narrow band of showers
and storms that is making a NW to SE trek. This band currently
runs from western portions of Dundy county, SE into central Logan
county. This band of precip is elevated and is tied to a weak
narrow band of 700 mb frontogenesis and associated shortwave.
Winds aloft at this level are from the NW. Temperatures are
currently ranging from the mid 50s into the mid 60s. Western
locales are seeing a SSE fetch ahead of the ridge, with eastern
areas near calm due to the proximity of the ridge.

Comparing to similar activity yesterday morning, expected this band
of precip to begin to wane towards sunrise and taper off. The focus
for the remainder of the day and on into the midweek timeframe
shifts back to the strong H5 ridge. This amplified system has sat
over the central Rockies and will still have a slow shift eastward
for the remainder of the short term period. This sets up W/NW flow
aloft during this time. At the surface, high pressure remains to the
east of the CWA, with weak troughing west over the Front Range. This
will provide a southerly gradient over the region, allowing for
gusts to reach into the 30 mph range, especially Tuesday.

Models still have a couple of shortwaves that will pass over the
northern periphery of the upper ridge and across the area. The
strongest system will bring best areal coverage chances for rain on
Tuesday, but all rainfall will mostly be focused on a late
afternoon/evening timeframe for occurrence. The southerly fetch will
allow for consistent flux of moisture into the region. Storms that
do develop will have the main hail/wind threats, by locally heavy
rainfall will be of concern as well.

Outlook concerns from the SPC, remain from yesterday. Marginal Risk
area is west of the CWA, with general thunder concerns today. For
Tuesday, NE Colorado has been increased to a Slight Risk, with areas
in KS/NE up to Highway 83, in Marginal. The shortwave moving over
the area Wednesday has mainly the western CWA under a Marginal Risk.

The approach of the upper ridge from the west continues an upward
trend in temps as highs will go from mainly around 80F today, to the
mid and upper 80s by Wednesday. Overnight lows in the 50s tonight,
and upper 50s to mid 60s by Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Overview: Expect drier conditions and a warming trend late this
week through the upcoming weekend. NW flow aloft will transition
to WNW-W flow aloft by Thursday -- as an upper level ridge shifts
eastward from the Rockies into the Central/Southern Plains. Long
range guidance suggests that the aforementioned ridge will amplify
over the Central/Southern Plains this weekend.

Thursday: Prior to amplification of the ridge, convective
development will likely be (1) diurnal in nature and (2) tied to
topography (i.e. differential heating along the Colorado Front
Range/Palmer Divide) -- with the relative best potential for
isolated storms in Eastern CO and adjacent KS/NE border counties.
Expect highs in the upper 80s.

Friday-Sunday: As the ridge amplifies over the Central/Southern
Plains and the mid-latitude westerlies retreat northward into
Nebraska and the Dakotas, diurnal convection at this latitude may
be relegated to the Colorado Front Range.. or suppressed
altogether. Otherwise, convection may largely be confined north of
I-80.. in closer vicinity to the mid-latitude westerlies.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

For KGLD, a broken VFR sky thru 22z, then VFR. 3-6sm in tsra this
morning. Winds SSE around 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts from 00z
tuesday onward.

For KMCK, VFR skies thru the forecast period with winds near




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