Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242331
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
531 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2020

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect across the entire forecast
area Sunday through Sunday night.

Have gone with the colder side of model guidance and leaned
towards the blend of models that has introduced more freezing
precipitation Saturday night through mid day on Sunday.

Confidence has risen in the higher snow amounts expected with the
storm system moving through the area between tonight and late
Monday. Confidence has also risen in the possibility of freezing
drizzle developing across the region between midnight tonight and
noon on Sunday ahead of the snowfall that is expected to begin
spreading from north to south across the region from late Sunday
morning through the remainder of the day on Sunday.

If the light freezing drizzle ends up developing, anywhere from a
light glaze to near one tenth of an inch of ice will be possible
between midnight Saturday night and noon on Sunday. One thing that
may end up moderating the amount of ice accumulating on the roads
is the fact that soil temperatures at the 4 inch depth are still
in the lower 40s. But with temperatures turning decidedly colder,
that may be enough to drive surface temperatures down enough to
accumulate ice. The primary snowfall is expected between mid day
on Sunday through about midnight Sunday night.

During the advisory period between 6am Sunday and 6am Monday,
between 2 and 4 inches of snow is possible along and south of
Interstate 70 with 4 to 6 inches of snow possible north of the
Interstate. Beyond the Advisory period, another inch or so of
snow is possible through the day on Monday before things wind down
and get really cold Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For the long term, the development and progression of an upper level
low will be the main focus. Guidance has a potential cut-off low
located in the Desert Southwest during the beginning of the week.
This upper low will then move east to east-northeast across the
Southern CONUS during the remainder of the week. For the Tri-State
area, this low looks to be too far south to lend support for
precipitation. However, there is disagreement on the track of this
upper low and a more northern track will allow for higher chances of
precipitation late Wednesday and into Thursday when it would pass
south of the area.

Otherwise, drier conditions will take over through the remainder of
the week as a drier air mass sets up over the area along with higher
surface pressure. Tuesday looks to be well below normal in
temperatures with morning lows in the single digits and highs
struggling to get into the upper 30`s. Tuesday morning may also see
wind chill values in the negatives. Wednesday will see a slight warm
up as morning lows stay in the upper teens and highs climb into the
upper 40`s and 50`s. Wednesday night does bring the potential for
some rain/snow mix mainly south of I-70 with the upper low mentioned
previously. But this again will depend on the track of the upper low
and moisture aloft that goes with it.

From Thursday on, warmer temperatures are forecasted as high`s get
into the 60`s by Saturday. Lows will mainly be in the 20`s and low
30`s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2020

For both terminals, deteriorating conditions as the forecast
period progresses, is expected with wintry weather approaching.
VFR/MVFR mix is around the area currently, and will give way to
mainly IFR skies by 05z-07z Sunday. Some LIFR is possible by 12z
Sunday. The area will see a mix of freezing rain/snow by 12z-13z
and eventually all snow by 15z-17z Sunday. Visibility will range
2-3sm, but down to around 1sm at times especially as precipitation
transitions to all snow.

For winds, KGLD will see E around 10-15kts thru 09z, then NE
around 10kts. By 13z Sunday, NNE 10-20kts with gusts to 30kts
after 17z. KMCK will see E 10-15kts thru 08z Sunday, then NE
around 10kts. By 15z, NNE around 10-20kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Record/near record low temperatures are possible at the following
locations:

October 26:

Goodland..........10 set in 1997
McCook............12 set in 1997
Burlington.........8 set in 1997
Colby.............12 set in 1997
Tribune...........15 set in 1997
Yuma...............8 set in 1997

October 27:

Goodland..........17 set in 1925
McCook............11 set in 1997
Burlington........14 set in 1957
Tribune...........12 set in 1997
Yuma..............11 set in 1997

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday to 6 AM
     MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
     042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday to 6 AM
     MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...JSL



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