Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 021007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
307 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

Overview: An upper level ridge.. situated over the central/
southern Rockies and central/southern Plains.. will persist. A
cut-off upper low in the eastern Pacific -- presently located
~600 miles west of San Francisco CA -- will meander southward
(Today-Tonight), then track decidedly eastward (courtesy of a
strengthening westerly STJ) to the southern CA coast (Wed) and
into the Intermountain West (Wed night).

Light/variable flow aloft will back to the west and undergo modest
strengthening in this period.. as the aforementioned upper ridge
flattens /height gradient tightens/ in advance of the upper level
low progressing ashore the southern Pacific coast. Throughout
this time.. a fairly nondescript MSLP and H85 height pattern will
prevail over the Tri-State area. A warming trend.. assoc/w
gradual airmass modification.. will persist. Clear skies are
anticipated to prevail through Wed, followed by an increasing
potential for transient orographic cirrus late Wed-Wed night.. as
W-WSW flow aloft strengthens over the Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

Potential for decent rainfall Thursday and into Friday remains.
The rest of the extended period looks dry with above average

An upper cut-off low is still expected to cross the region late
Thursday and into Friday. At the surface, a low is expected to
form in Southeastern Colorado off the Front Range and move off to
the East-Southeast across the Panhandles. As this system moves
through, moisture from the Gulf and aloft from the Pacific are
forecasted to get pulled into the Tri-State area. This would allow
the area to see rain during the night Thursday and through the
morning Friday. Locales further to the south have a better chance
of seeing rain and would likely see higher amounts. Given the
amount of moisture present, (situational awareness tables show
forecast precipitable water to be in the top 2.5% for this time of
year), some areas could see half an inch or more of rain total
from the event. There are hints of maybe some MUCAPE being
embedded within the broader precip area that is expected, but most
of the convective instability is still low and favored further
south. The system still needs to be watched as model runs have
been trending slightly more towards Southwestern Kansas and
ensemble members still show some alternate solutions. However, the
solutions have been converging on the system bring a majority of
the rain through West-Central and Southwestern Kansas.
Temperatures both Thursday and Friday are forecasted to reach the
50`s and low 60`s as there is not a cold air mass associated with
this system. However, even with highs reaching at least the 50`s,
overnight temperatures may drop to freezing or just below
freezing. Snow may mix in at that point though there would be
little if any snow accumulations due to the overall warm

Friday and Saturday will have the system push off to the south
and east and allow for ridging aloft to move in. Surface high
pressure will also move in which will dry the area out and allow
for high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 60`s on

Sunday brings a bit of uncertainty as both the ECMWF and GFS
suggest a shortwave aloft will move either through the area or
just to the north. Likely, this would not affect the temperatures
and Sunday would still see highs in the 60`s. The question is if
some more rain will move into the area late in the day. The ECMWF
is more on board with bring precip from the Front Range east into
our area but this is because it brings the shortwave further south
than the GFS. Will have to see how this plays out.

Monday and Tuesday have us between a ridge to the east and a
trough to the west aloft. Guidance agrees on this as the general
trend though smaller differences remain. The forecast currently
calls for the continuation of above average temperatures and
relatively dry conditions through Tuesday. Tuesday on may change
with that suggested trough but for now the focus is on the systems
at the end of this week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 305 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

VFR conditions /clear skies/ will rule through the TAF period at
both terminals.

GLD: SW winds at 10-15 knots will veer to the WSW late this
morning, decreasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon. Winds will
become light/variable AOA sunset.

MCK: SW winds at 10-15 knots will veer to the W-WNW late this
morning.. perhaps gusting up to 20 knots for a brief period
during the early-mid afternoon (20-21Z). Winds will weaken during
the late afternoon, becoming light/variable AOA sunset.




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