Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
132 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 109 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019

As of 2 PM CDT, 1 PM MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
mostly cloud with a few breaks being observed over east central
Colorado and west central Kansas. Temperatures are currently in the
60s to lower 70s south of US Highway 40. Winds are generally from
the northeast at 5-10 mph. At the surface, a low pressure/mesoscale
convective vortex (MCV) from remnant convection was centered roughly
over Rooks County Kansas, slowly migrating east. Surface high
pressure is building in from the northeast in the wake of this
system. Aloft, a weak shortwave trough is moving across Colorado.
WSR-88D radar and GOES-16 satellite trends indicate an uptick in
convective trends, particularly over Colorado as the shortwave
trough moves in and atmosphere destabilizes with the breaks in the

For the rest of the day, expect thunderstorms developing over
Colorado to slowly move in from the west. A few storms may become
severe with this batch of convection. The Colorado environment is
currently characterized by SBCape of 1500 J/kg, 2-6 km lapse rates
of 7+ C/km, DCAPE to around 300 j/kg, and effective bulk shear of
around 25 kts. These parameters indicate that a few
strong/marginally severe storms are possible with hail as the main
threat, and perhaps a damaging wind gust. Further east closer to the
low pressure, cloud cover has significantly hampered the instability
and would expect little to know thunderstorm activity, especially
severe activity. The main show in terms of Kansas severe weather
will be well to the south and east.

For tonight, all convective activity should dwindle before midnight.
A surface high building into the region, in addition to light winds
and high low level moisture content, may lead to favorable
conditions for fog development. The only caveat is the amount of
cloud cover may limit radiational cooling. However, stratus may
continue to lower throughout the night and with the amount of
surface moisture, some reduced visibilities should be expected.

For tomorrow, it may be an interesting day in terms of
thunderstorm activity. The Storm Prediction Center has already
outlooked the region for a marginal risk of severe weather.
Looking at the parameters, high resolution guidance indicates
SBCape of 1500-2000 j/kg, 850-500 mb lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, and
30 to 40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear suggest an environment supportive
of severe storms. Would expect convection to fire on any
boundaries left over, especially differential heating boundaries
left over from the morning stratus. The shortwave that will help
initiate storms is relatively weak, so coverage may not be too
great. That being said, it is a northwest flow pattern which has
produced some significant wind/hail events over the years in this
region. Not saying this will be the case tomorrow, but the severe
threat is something to closely monitor.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Unsettled weather returns for much of the long term period.
Northwest flow aloft transitions to southwest on Thursday as an
upper trough develops along the west coast. Moisture filters into
the region and a nocturnal low level jet is anticipated to
strengthen overnight as a shortwave moves off of the Rockies.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a result, mainly along
the Nebraska border and north. Shear and instability will be
sufficient for a few strong to severe storms.

A surface low deepens near northwest Kansas on Friday as a cold
front enters the area. Meanwhile aloft, a closed low travels across
the northern Plains as its upper trough approaches the region. The
trough pushes across the area through the weekend. This system
generates showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, with a
potential for severe weather each day. Due to varying guidance,
confidence in timing and other details is too low at this time.

Drier conditions are forecast on Monday and Tuesday behind the
exiting wave. Cannot rule out a slight chance of precipitation as
weak disturbances move through the westerly flow.

Temperatures cool for the first half of the period, with highs in
the 80s/low 90s on Thursday decreasing to the 70s/low 80s on
Saturday. Temperatures rebound next week, with highs in the 80s to
low 90s on Tuesday. Low temperatures range in the mid 40s to mid 60s
throughout the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Periods of poor aviation conditions are expected to continue
throughout the next 24 hours. A low pressure system is moving off
to the east. In addition, surface high pressure will build in
tonight. This will lead to a period of calm winds and, with the
widespread moisture in the area, should lead to another round of
IFR/LIFR ceilings and perhaps visibility. Some guidance members
indicate potential dense fog along an axis from roughly KMCK to
GLD. Therefore, put in a mention of fog at both sites in addition
to the low ceilings from stratus. Showers associated with the low
will slowly spread east with the low pressure system. Instability
continues to be lacking so have removed thunder once again in the
near-term (next 3-5 hours). Will need to monitor thunderstorms
developing over Colorado and heading east this evening. That will
provide the next potential opportunity for thunderstorms at both
TAF sites.




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