Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240315
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
815 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

Current forecast generally on track, just a few adjustments using
latest 00z and 01z data.

Upper level low was spinning south of Dodge City near the KS/OK
border. Wraparound precipitation extended from near Norton to
Goodland, Burlington and Kit Carson south. Predominant
precipitation type was rain except across parts of Cheyenne county
Colorado, Wallace, Greeley and maybe Wichita county where surface
temperatures were in the 32F-34F range and light snow was
reported.

For the rest of the night precipitation will steadily move
southeast and out of the area around 09z or so, maybe a tad sooner
as upper low moves away. Current thinking is as the low and precip
move away, that will be when some colder temperatures start to
move in from the northwest. So except for the counties listed
above any threat of snow looks to be minimal, cant completely rule
it out where temperatures are in the 35F-36F range but
accumulations are not expected.

Snow accumulations look to be limited to Cheyenne county CO,
Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties where additional
accumulations up to an inch, maybe two are possible.

Low temperatures look to range from the low to mid 20s across the
north and west to around 30 in Hill City.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1218 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

1830 UTC Water Vapor imagery/RAP Analysis indicated large closed
low circulation centered over southern Colorado, with dynamic
tropopause/pv analysis indicating forcing for large scale ascent
entering the southern portions of the CWA. Radar mosaics
indicating large area of precipitation developing across west
central Kansas and slowly lifting north.

While there was some uncertainty going into today, appears good
portion of the area south of Interstate 70 will see some
meaningful precipitation through tonight, although specific type
remains somewhat uncertain.

This Afternoon-Tonight...Aforementioned closed low will continue
to lift to the north, with H7 frontal zone acting as a focusing
mechanism during the early evening hours. Frontogenesis and
stability profiles support a strong response to the lift and
isentropic fields indicate a decent feed of moisture being lifted
over front, potential exists for high precipitation rates. With at
least a 100 j/kg of MUCAPE present...embedded convection (weak
thunderstorms) may make the higher amounts fairly spotty. How far
north precipitation shield makes it harder question to answer as
precipitation will have to overcome a very warm/dry airmass which
will eat away at precipitation amounts, especially if instability
not present. Given position of H55 frontal zone and isentropic
trajectories, think a Flagler to Hill City line will likely be the
cut off between more widespread precipitation and lower
amounts/less coverage. Cannot say for certain there will not be
rain north of this line, but chances do diminish quickly as one
goes north. Other concern for the period will be if/when
precipitation can change over to snow and what impacts this may
cause. Much warmer temperatures have delayed any potential change
over, which if it occurs now looks to be after 4 pm MST and with
warm ground accumulations will be diminished. The best chance for
snow looks to be roughly from Flagler to Tribune during the
evening hours...with amounts around an inch. Winds have increased
today to 20 to 30 mph in some locations and this will continue as
low deepens and moves east tonight. Could be a period where
blowing snow creates travel problems, but think duration and
uncertain change over time keep confidence pretty low in this
happening.

Monday...Quick on the heels of tonights system, a strong shortwave
trough will approach from the northwest. This will drive a cold
front across the area through the daytime hours. Behind the front,
northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts exceeding 45mph are
expected. In addition to the winds, low level profiles and legacy
shallow convective indices (TQ) support a period of showers
along/directly behind the front. Think the amounts will be spotty,
but these showers could have an impact tomorrow. Despite warm
temperatures in the 40s/low 50s, wetbulb temperatures are near
freezing. If precipitation reaches the ground, it could easily be
in the form of snow. A little bit of snow, combined with the
strong winds may cause brief snow squall like conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 118 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

For the extended not much has changed since yesterdays discussing.
Some areas will start out as rain showers then give way to Snow
showers and strong winds over the Tri-State area through Tuesday
afternoon. This is due to the influence from an upper-level low that
is transiting over the northern High Plains. In addition to the snow
and winds, Monday`s overnight lows will drop into the upper teens to
the lower 20s. Tuesday`s highs will reach into the upper 20s to
middle 30s with Tuesdy`s overnight lows dropping into the lower
teens to single digits.

As this upper-level low moves out of the High Plains and into the
Great Lakes region strong northwesterly winds aloft will continue
behind it through the end if the week. As of now, all indications
are that dry conditions will return to the Central High Plains
region for the rest of the period. However, with a shortwave trough
embedded within the strong northwesterly winds aloft, it is possible
to have a pop-up shower or two on Thursday. End of the week temps
will see the highs in the lower to upper 40s with the overnight lows
in the lower to middle 20s.

Heading into the weekend, an upper-level ridge looks to move into
the Western US from the Eastern Pacific and build. This pattern will
continue with the dry conditions and produce highs reaching the
lower 60s next Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 435 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. VFR conditions will
fall to MVFR as the precipitation moves over KGLD this evening.
KMCK should remain VFR. Rain should change to snow by 3z, with the
changeover moving in from the west. Conditions improve at KGLD
around 6z when the precipitation ends.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL


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