Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 081243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
643 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021

Synoptic Overview: An upper level low (presently situated in
northern Idaho and far western Montana) will stall/cut-off over
the northern Rockies tonight.. slowly retrograding W-SW toward
Idaho Sun-Sun night.

Today: A developing lee cyclone in Colorado will track eastward
through southwestern and central Kansas today.. as cyclonic flow
aloft strengthens over the Rockies. Guidance suggests that small
amplitude waves rounding the base of the upper low (over the
central Rockies) will aid in convective development along the CO
Front Range and adjacent High Plains this afternoon.. on the
northwestern periphery of the aforementioned lee cyclone. Strong
evaporative cooling /wetbulbing/ associated with the
aforementioned convection will result in the development of a
meso-high over northeast CO and adjacent portions of KS/NE..
augmenting/enhancing a frontal zone (situated invof Garden City--
Quinter--Hill City--Phillipsburg at 21Z) and propelling it
southeastward into central Kansas late this afternoon. Simulated
reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that two
distinct areas of convection will develop ~21Z this afternoon: (1)
along the aforementioned frontal zone in the warm sector and (2)
behind the front, on the Palmer Divide.

(1) Aside from southeastern portions of Gove/Graham counties at
onset.. convection initiating along the front (in the warm sector)
will likely be confined east/southeast of the NWS Goodland CWA.

(2) Convection initiating on the Palmer Divide (behind the front)
will track eastward into northwest KS during the late afternoon
and should largely be elevated in nature.. and less intense than
activity along/ahead of the front in central KS. Despite marginal
instability, deep layer shear will be sufficient for organized
updrafts capable of producing marginally severe hail and damaging
winds.. mainly between 21-02Z.

Additionally, strong northerly winds (30-45 mph with higher gusts)
and (possibly) blowing dust will develop in northwest KS during
the late afternoon.. as the MSLP/H85 height gradient tighten in
response to abrupt pressure rises assoc/w a developing meso-high
(to the north and west) and pressure falls attendant the advancing
lee cyclone (to the south and east). Strong northerly winds will
be short-lived in nature (1 or 2 hours).

.LONG TERM...(Monday Morning through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021

Active weather expected for bulk of the period as slow moving H5
trough works its way across northern Colorado through Wednesday,
placing much of the CWA in favorable warm air advection and upslope
pattern Monday through Tuesday leading to a period of precipitation
and well below normal temperatures for the start of the week. Signal
remains quite strong that widespread precipitation will develop
across western half of CWA with combination of persistent WAA and
easterly near sfc flow providing forcing for ascent. While models
differ on exact moisture profiles overall pattern very similar. Main
concern will be potential for snow to develop overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning. Wet bulb temperatures and WBZ heights support
rain/snow line making it as far east as the state line and a few
locations in eastern Colorado seeing up to 2 inches of snow not out
of the question. With very warm ground temperatures and marginal
temperatures for snow, think accumulations will struggle to stick
around long before melting.

Precipitation should taper off by Wednesday afternoon as ridging
begins to build over the area, resulting in temperatures rebounding
to the low 80s by the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Sat May 8 2021

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through early to mid
afternoon. Adverse conditions associated with scattered
thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon (22-02Z),
mainly at the GLD terminal. Gusty/erratic winds can be expected
in vicinity of any thunderstorms.

Initially light/variable winds will shift to the NW-NNW at 10-15
knots late this morning, increasing to 15-25 knots during the
early to mid afternoon. NNW winds may further increase to 25-35
knots with gusts up to 40 knots during the late afternoon
(23-02Z), particularly at the GLD terminal. Breezy NNW-N winds
will persist this evening and overnight.




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