Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Today-tonight...dry weather is expected behind last nights upper
trough passage. Lots of sunshine expected today with highs
temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80. Little in the way of
cloudiness tonight. Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to
around 50 in far eastern Colorado to the low and mid 50s east of the
CO/KS border.

Monday-Monday upper level trough and associated closed
low pressure center is forecast to move southeast toward Las Vegas
during the day then into Arizona during the night with southwest
flow aloft over our area. Some moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves
across the eastern 1/3 or so of the area during the night from the
GFS/ECMWF while the NAM is much drier. Per coordination with
surrounding offices we`ve agreed to lower precipitation chances at
this time given somewhat lacking moisture in the above mentioned
layers. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s. Overnight
lows range from the low 50s in far eastern Colorado to the mid 50s
to low 60s east of the CO/KS border.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...the forecast area is under northwest flow
aloft as the low pressure center mentioned Monday dives south
into northern Mexico. Dry weather is expected with high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures range from
the mid 40s to low 50s in far eastern Colorado, low to mid 50s
east of the CO/KS border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Mainly dry conditions are forecast throughout the extended period,
with fluctuating temperatures due to a couple of frontal passages.
At the beginning of the period, a broad trough spans across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest, placing the region under weak
northwesterly flow. A closed low spins near Baja California, where
it remains nearly stationary to start.

A cold front is expected to push through the region early Wednesday
as the trough over the northern portion of the country swings
further towards the Great Lakes. The trough progresses east on
Thursday and zonal flow transitions to southwesterly. The closed low
once over Baja California advances to the Desert Southwest,
continuing onto the High Plains on Friday as an open wave.

This disturbance generates a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for locations north of the Nebraska border Thursday
night. At this time, confidence in how the wave will track is low
and the forecast calls for mainly dry conditions. It does appear
that there could be another cold front moving through on Friday
before stalling on Saturday and returning north as a warm front on
Sunday. Meanwhile, a large trough with a closed low over the Pacific
Northwest develops along the west coast. Will be interesting to see
how this trough and the strengthening ridge over the eastern CONUS
interact at the start of next week.

High temperatures range in the 70s to mid 80s during the long term
period, with Wednesday being the coolest day (70s region-wide). Low
temperatures have a slightly larger spread, fluctuating within the
mid 40s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. North winds
around 10kts at taf issuance will back to the west by early afternoon
then southwest at 6kt increasing to around 10kts tonight (KGLD)
and variable 6kts or less (KMCK) tonight.




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