497
FXUS63 KGLD 170446
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1046 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather with rising temperatures today through
  Saturday.

- A low pressure system anticipated to develop in the lee of
  the Rockies late this weekend may bring severe weather to
  portions of the Central Plains on Sunday May 19.

- Unsettled pattern with daily potential for showers/storms
  expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Overview: Both the northern and southern stream branches of the
upper level jet will be well-removed from the Tri-State area in
this period.. as an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest
extends northeastward over the Central Plains.

Expect benign weather and a warming trend, with well-above
average temperatures on Friday.. when highs may approach 90F
over much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Active weather is anticipated from the latter half of the
upcoming weekend through much of next week.. as cyclonic flow
/troughing/ aloft becomes established over the western CONUS.
Guidance indicates a rather complicated flow pattern
characterized by varying degrees of interaction/phasing between
two distinct (northern and southern stream) branches of the
upper level jet. In such a pattern, confidence in forecast
specifics is well below average. Broadly speaking, one would
expect an increased potential for convection.. and episodic
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites,
however LLWS has been present at both terminals. Near surface
winds have been around 10 kts while winds around 200-600ft above
the surface have been observed to be around 40-45kts. This is
forecast to continue to around 13-15Z. Otherwise, near surface
winds will remain around 12kts from the south.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...BV
AVIATION...KAK