485
FXUS63 KGLD 260426
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1026 PM MDT Tue Mar 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through the rest of the week
  with occasional elevated fire weather conditions.

- An active pattern is expected Friday afternoon through the
  weekend, including the potential for storms, rain and snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM MDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Subtle shortwave within the northwest flow coinciding with
increasing mid level moisture in the 700-500mb level is leading
to an area of virga or sprinkles at best moving into western
portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties. Additional mid
level moisture is forecast to move in through the rest of the
evening so will maintain a silent pops for Kansas Highway 27 on
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Northwest flow today will turn more zonal on Wednesday as a
shortwave ridge moves across the Central Plains. The flow then
turns southwest on Thursday ahead of a deep trough moving
onshore in the Pacific Northwest. A weak shortwave trough will
be ejecting into the central High Plains ahead of the main
system Friday night.

Due to the proximity of the upper ridge and low level southerly
flow, temperatures will be above normal through the short term
period. Highs will be in the 70s on Wednesday then 80s both
Thursday and Friday. Some record high temperatures will be
possible. Low temperatures will be in the 30s tonight, then 40s
for Thursday and Friday.

Occasional elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
due to breezy to windy conditions and low afternoon humidity.
Wednesday will see breezy south winds by the afternoon with
gusts in the 25-30 mph range and humidity dropping to around
25%. On Thursday, winds will be lighter with a surface trough
moving into the area. On Friday, southerly winds increase again,
particular east of Highway 83 where they will be gusting up to
30 mph, with humidity dropping to around 25% in that area.
Humidity will be lower further west toward the Colorado border
area on Friday, as low as 15%, but winds will be lighter.

Precipitation chances through the period will be low but not
zero. An isolated late afternoon shower or thunderstorm will be
possible on Thursday in eastern areas (Gove, Graham, Norton
counties). Those areas will be on the northern periphery of a
plume of weak instability. However, forcing will be quite weak
with perhaps only the hint of a weak disturbance coming out of
Colorado in the zonal/southwest flow aloft. Friday night,
somewhat better forcing will accompany a shortwave trough, but
it does not arrive until late in the night. It will also bring a
surface cold front through overnight as the accompanying surface
low strengthens. Scattered light rain showers can be expected,
with perhaps an isolated early evening thunderstorm in far
eastern areas if something can develop that early. Instability
will be very weak and severe storms are not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Slightly cooler air moves in on Saturday behind the first
shortwave, but the main system will be in the Four Corners
region to start the weekend. Some light wraparound rain showers
will be possible Saturday, mainly north of Interstate 70, but
again not seeing much in the way of forcing other than low level
upslope in the afternoon as winds begin to veer northeast,
gusting up to 30 mph through the day. Highs will be mainly in
the 60s. Precipitation chances will increase in earnest Saturday
night and continue through Sunday as the upper trough moves
into central Colorado and through the Central Plains.
Precipitation type will be problematic. NBM probabilities show
rain predominate through the day Saturday, but then near equal
probabilities for rain and snow Saturday night in
Colorado/adjacent counties, progressing eastward through the
remainder of the area by Sunday afternoon. However, the
deterministic runs are more suggestive of snow, particularly the
GFS. Uncertainty is high at this point. Temperatures will cool
on Sunday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
Sunday morning through the remainder of the period. A broad
zonal flow develops early next week in the wake of the weekend
system, a pattern which translates to dry conditions and
slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1009 PM MDT Tue Mar 25 2025

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. Easterly
winds are forecast to continue along with a gradual shift to the
south. An increasing 850mb jet through the day will lead to
breezy winds through the day with gusts of 25-30 knots. The jet
is forecast to intensify through the evening leading to to low
level wind shear concerns for each terminal Wednesday evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg