Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 AM MST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 323 AM MST Fri Nov 16 2018

Looking at latest guidance it appears that the models have dried
out aloft a bit further, and soundings show a saturated area
below the inversion. That stated, wetbulb temperatures through
the lower saturated layer (below 700 mb) will be warmer than -10
degrees Celsius, so expecting supercooled water instead of ice and
snow. As a result, went ahead and decided along mostly our
Colorado/Kansas border and Colorado/Nebraska border to add in
freezing drizzle at the start of the FROPA. Some slight ice
accumulations could range from a trace to 0.04 inches with the
potentially highest ice accumulations in Kit Carson County,
Colorado. Confidence is low on the ice accumulation values at this
time. Not expecting any WWA to be issued for this event.

Expecting freezing precip to transition to snow on Saturday. Cold
front will continue southward finally moving out of our area by
Sunday morning. Storm total snowfall amounts will range from a
light dusting to an inch and a half. Some localized areas may see
more, but not expecting that at this time. Expect daily highs on
Saturday to be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with overnight lows in
the teens.

Afterward, high pressure will move over the Tri-State area drying
us out and warming us up come the start of the work week, back to
more seasonably average temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 145 AM MST Fri Nov 16 2018

A relatively quiet period of weather is expected for the Central
High Plains for next week. With a trough deepening over the eastern
United States and upper-level ridging developing over the western
United States, relatively weak upper-level winds will be present
over the Tri-State area for several days. Large scale subsidence on
the convergent side of the eastern upper-level trough will put a
damper on any precipitation or cloud formation chances through the
end of the coming work week.

With no major air mass changes, temperatures will be fairly steady
next week. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 50s while lows
will gradually warm up from the mid 20s Monday morning to the low
30s by next Friday morning. No precipitation or other impactful
weather is expected at this time. Things will likely get more active
again next weekend weather-wise as the next upper-level trough comes
in Friday evening over the Rocky Mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 416 AM MST Fri Nov 16 2018

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through this evening at the
Goodland and McCook terminals. However, late this evening, a cold
front will move across the Tri-State area, bringing in lower
ceilings, gusty winds, and reduced visibilities as a result of
wintry precipitation. Conditions may warrant sub-VFR categories,
but confidence on exact timing and impacts are low at this time.




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