Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 920 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

First update was to add remaining counties along and south of the
interstate to Red Flag Warning.

Latest guidance shows strong west winds possibly gusting to 50 mph
in spots rapidly spreading east along and south of the interstate
in the next several hours. This will quickly lower dewpoints and
push afternoon temperatures into the mid 70s to mid 80s causing
relative humidity values to drop below 15 percent. Very late in
the afternoon winds gradually veer to the northwest.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for east central Colorado and
west central Kansas from mid day through early evening today.

The primary forecast concern in the short term period is are the
possible critical fire weather conditions today.

The upper ridge in place over the region early today gets pushed
east as a short wave trough moves through the central Rockies and
across the central high plains region this evening. the surface
low deepening over the eastern Colorado border today in response
to the approaching upper trough will produce gusty southwest winds
across the forecast area ahead of the low that transition to
northwest by late this afternoon in the wake of the low. With the
weak instability and lift being generated by very warm
temperatures and the transitory system concentrated in the
vicinity and north of a nearly stationary boundary located across
the northern sections of the forecast area, a few thunderstorms
are possible across mainly the northern half of the forecast area
during the afternoon and early evening.

Weak short wave ridging will be in place aloft in the wake of the
exiting short wave trough on Saturday with the upper flow sags
south and becomes more southwesterly as a trough deepens over the
west. Cooler high pressure moves in at the surface tonight and
Saturday following the exit of the surface low. This will bring
daytime highs back down mainly into the 60s after peaking in the
70s and mid 80s today. The cooler air remains mostly over the
eastern sections of the forecast area as another lee trough
deepens over Colorado late Saturday and into Sunday ahead of a
series of disturbances in the southwest flow aloft. With breezy,
dry and warmer conditions remaining primarily over the
southwestern sections of the forecast area Saturday and into
Sunday, fire weather conditions will remain elevated. Critical
FWX conditions aren`t expected at this time, but deserve to be
watched given the relatively dense and well cured fine fuels
present across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Monday and Tuesday: Active weather prevails on Monday and Tuesday as
a cut off low dives into the southwestern States. Showers will
develop late Monday morning as a theta-e boundary drifts southward
out of western Nebraska. CAPE values approaching 1000 J/Kg will be
in place across the eastern and northeastern portions of the CWA and
will expand westward as the afternoon hours progress. We could see a
few potentially stronger storms form along this boundary. Colder air
moves in after sunset with showers changing over to snow during the
overnight hours from west to east. Snow is expected to change back
over to rain after sunrise Tuesday, tapering off around midday with
high temperatures climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday: A weak shortwave traverses the region on
Wednesday, bringing a brief chance of snow mainly to the
southwestern portions of the CWA during the morning hours. This will
change back to rain showers after sunrise, tapering off during the
mid to late afternoon. High temperatures on Wednesday will reach the
middle 50s. Thursday looks to remain dry with highs in the middle to
upper 50s as high pressure begins to influence the region from the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. However, could
see mvfr cigs a few hours either side of 11z. Southwest winds
gusting 25kts at taf issuance expected to increase and slowly veer
to the west then northwest through 23z with gusts to 35kts
possible. Isolated thunderstorms possible around the terminal in
the 20z-00z timeframe, right now confidence not high enough to
include in the forecast for the terminal. For tonight northwest
winds 10-12kts expected. Could see some stratus a few hours either
side of 11z. Around 17z winds veer to the northeast under 10kts.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through 11z. Winds begin the period
from the southeast near 12kts then back to the northeast then
north after 22z with gusts to 25kts possible. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible in the 21z-02z timeframe with
winds backing to the north around 10kts. Stratus expected with
mvfr cigs in the 09z-16z timeframe and have added to the forecast.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.



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