Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212024
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Low clouds continue to slowly erode west to east this afternoon,
however as the sun sets and temperatures start to cool they will
begin to retreat westward. In addition, models strongly suggesting
fog will accompany the low clouds, and already see some lower
visibilities just east of the area. Will follow the HRRR closely
and have dense fog advisory starting this evening for areas east
of the Colorado border, through Thursday morning. It is possible
areas not in the current advisory may be added later, but
confidence in western/southern extent of the fog not quite as
high. Some drizzle also possible. Low temperatures will be in the
upper 30s to middle 40s, so no freezing precipitation expected.

Cold front will sweep through the area Thursday morning and scour
out the low clouds and fog. Timing has the front through the
entire area by 16-18z. Lowered high temperatures a bit more based
on that timing. As for wind and dust, confidence has dropped
compared to yesterday. Winds will primarily be driven by pressure
rises behind the front rather than deep mixing, and with a strong
cap around 700mb do not see anything in that surface layer higher
than about 30-35kts. Rather than remove mention of blowing dust
completely, which is tempting, changed wording to patchy. Winds
will diminish by early evening. High temperatures will range from
around 50 in northern areas to lower 60s in southern areas. Freeze
watch continues for Thursday night/Friday morning with low
temperatures ranging from the upper teens in northeast Colorado to
the upper 20s in Norton/Graham counties.

Will be under zonal flow aloft on Friday with no real weather
impacts expected. Skies will be partly sunny at best with cirrus
moving off the Rockies. It will be much colder with high
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Low temperatures
Friday night will drop into the lower to middle 20s.

Will see temperatures briefly warm on Saturday ahead of the next
system. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s in eastern
areas to the lower 60s in northeast Colorado with breezy southeast
winds and increasing clouds. As shortwave trough approaches from
the northern Rockies, there will be a chance for rain and snow
after midnight, mainly north of Interstate 70. Little to no
accumulation expected through Saturday night. Low temperatures
will be in the teens and 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Southwest flow prevails at the start of the long term period on the
east side of an upper trough. The trough deepens as it digs into the
Rockies on Sunday, and colder air filters into the High Plains.
Currently, the forecast calls for this disturbance to generate
chances for light snow through Sunday night and continuing through
Monday night as the trough slowly pushes east. Then, dry weather
returns Tuesday into Wednesday. Light snow accumulations will be
possible.

However, there is some disagreement among guidance, particularly
with the timing and placement of this system. There are major
differences on how the trough evolves/when it closes off to a low
over the desert southwest. These factors will need to be resolved in
the coming days to get a clearer picture of the forecast. Right now,
forecast confidence is low as a result.

Much colder temperatures are expected during this timeframe. On
Sunday, highs range from the mid 20s in the northwest to mid 30s in
the southeast. This is followed by the mid 20s to near 30 degrees
from west to east on Monday. A warming trend is anticipated on
Tuesday (upper 30s/low 40s) and Wednesday (upper 40s/low 50s). Low
temperatures drop into the single digits and teens Sunday and
Monday nights, then "warm" up to the upper teens/low 20s Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2020

Low ceilings will slowly erode west to east this afternoon, with
KGLD returning to VFR early this afternoon and KMCK by mid
afternoon. However, low ceilings and fog will quickly retreat
westward this evening, with both terminals IFR or VLIFR by 06z
tonight. The widespread fog and low clouds will continue through
the overnight, with some drizzle also possible, until a cold front
arrives Thursday morning. Winds will shift to the north and
increase through late Thursday morning, with visibility improving
first and ceilings slowly improving behind the front.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10
     AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     NEZ079>081.

     Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10
     AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024


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