Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 070950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
350 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Today-tonight...the forecast area is under southwest flow aloft
today, in between low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and high
pressure over Missouri. Tonight the upper low slowly moves east into
Montana and northwest Wyoming with the upper high also shifting
slowly east. At the surface the pressure gradient across the
forecast area reaches 9 to potentially 10mb which is a mb or two
higher then 24 hours ago. With plenty of sunshine expected we should
see another day of south winds gusting up to 60 mph. The exception
could be Norton and Graham counties where winds may gust closer to
45 mph. Will continue with the High Wind Warning for the entire area
at let incoming shift know about the far eastern counties
potentially not reaching criteria. With the strong winds cant rule
out a few areas of blowing dust, especially those areas that have
recently had work done in the fields the past few days. High
temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100
degrees. A few high based thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon from around Trenton to Goodland and Cheyenne Wells within
an area of 700mb moisture.

Breezy to windy conditions are expected this evening slowly
decreasing after midnight as a cold front makes its way into the
northwest corner of the forecast area. Low temperatures are expected
to range from the mid 50s to low 60s in far eastern Colorado, mid
60s to low 70s east of the CO/KS border.

Monday-Monday night...the cold front works its way into the
northwest 1/2 or so of the forecast area during the day with
northeast winds behind it and south to southeast winds ahead of it.
High temperatures are expected to range from the low 80s to near 90
behind the front with mid to upper 90s ahead of it. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Oberlin and McCook
areas south by mid to late afternoon where moisture/lift and low
level convergence along the front are maximized. For the overnight
hours much cooler air moves in with windy northwest winds as the
upper trough starts moving through the area. Precipitation chances
increase a bit along and north of the interstate where better 850-
500mb moisture exists. Low temperatures will be much cooler compared
to the past few nights with readings ranging from the low to mid 40s
in far eastern Colorado, mid 40s to mid 50s east of the CO/KS

Tuesday-Tuesday night...the NAM/ECMWF bring the upper trough axis
and a large area of 850-500mb moisture through the area during the
day and out of the area by mid to late evening. The GFS is about 6
to 9 hours faster moving the moisture in and out of the area. Right
now we have slight chance to low change pops for rain showers. We
currently have high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s but those
are in question if the NAM verifies with its slightly slower
movement of the upper trough. We could see much lower readings. Low
temperatures are expected to drop into the low 40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Upper ridge will gradually rebuild over the area from the west
with the ridge axis reaching the central plains on Saturday.
Temperatures will correspondingly warm from near normal on
Wednesday to above normal the remainder of the period.
Precipitation chances appear slim to none under the ridge.
However, the GFS does show a backdoor cold front sliding into the
area on Friday with light precipitation. The feature is notably
absent from the ECMWF, so confidence is low and will leave Friday
dry for now. Wednesday and Thursday will see low relative humidity
values in northeast Colorado where fuels remain susceptible,
however wind speeds are currently forecast to be light, leading to
elevated rather than critical fire weather conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. The
main weather impacts will be strong southerly winds gusting to
around 50kts at both terminals, higher confidence at KGLD.
Isolated high based thunderstorms cant be ruled out at KGLD in the
23z-02z timeframe and may impact or just be west of KMCK during
the same time periods. Strong southerly winds shortly before
sunset will slowly decrease overnight while continuing gusts
around 30kts til sunrise when sustained speeds are expected to be
around 15kts with some higher gusts.


Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across far
eastern Colorado where south winds gusting to 60 mph will combine
with relative humidity readings near 10 percent to create
potentially dangerous fire weather conditions.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible next weekend across
far eastern Colorado.


KS...High Wind Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-

CO...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ252>254.

NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.



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