Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
900 PM MDT Mon May 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 16 2022

As of 3 pm CDT...2 pm MDT...skies were partly cloud across most of
the region as high clouds move in from the west. Temperatures have
warmed well into the 80s for most locations. Winds varied from south
at 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph east of Highway 83 to sustained
20 to 30 mph and gusting up to 45 mph along the Colorado border. At
the surface, a lee trough has developed along the Colorado Front
Range. Aloft, a shortwave trough was moving northeast across
southwest Colorado. This is the disturbance that may lead to storms
moving across the forecast area this evening. Current radar and
satellite imagery show storms forming along the Front Range,
beginning to spread east onto the High Plains near the Denver and
Cheyenne, WY areas.

For this evening through tonight, attention is focused on what
may/may not come in from the west in terms of thunderstorm activity.
While convection has been developing along the Front Range, it does
not currently look visually impressive from radar or satellite
perspectives. Overall, the convection seems to be suffering from a
lack of substantial moisture to work with initially. As the storms
and disturbance move further east, there is more moisture and
instability to work with which may promote additional development
across eastern Colorado. Convective allowing models do indicate some
strengthening in current storms and further development, and storms
will also spread into Kansas and Nebraska...but not making it past
Highway 83 as daytime heating will be lost by the time storms make
it that far east. The main threats for these storms looks to be
damaging winds with large hail as a secondary threat. Inverted V
soundings as well as higher DCape would allow for a few
downbursts/strong convective outflows to occur. However, the severe
threat in general doesn`t appear to be too ominous and widespread
severe weather should not be anticipated at this time.

For tomorrow, moisture return is expected across the forecast area
with a few boundaries also taking shape...a dryline and cold front,
along with a surface low, should provide opportunities for storms to
develop east of Highway 25 during the afternoon hours. In addition,
storms should also develop over northern Colorado and spread across
the area generally along and north of Interstate 70. Overall, for
both areas of storm development, wind shear isn`t optimal...perhaps
30 kts or so of 0-6 km bulk shear. Moisture and instability is much
higher for the eastern area of development as this area will be east
of the dryline. Further west, instability may not be as high but
there is dry air to work with at the surface, which may allow for
cold pool formation and thus propagating MCSs. Therefore, there may
be two distinct rounds of forming along the
dryline/cold front east of Highway 83, and the second coming in from
the west/northwest and moving across the forecast area laying
along/north of Interstate 70. Damaging winds and large hail look to
be the primary threats. A tornado/landspout tornado can not be
totally ruled out, but this does not have the makings of a
significant tornado day. Afternoon high temperatures will be quite
warm, approaching or exceeding 90 degrees for many locations. Winds
should be lighter Tuesday compared to Monday, especially with the
center of the low moving through which should lead to a lull in the
light winds for most locations during the late morning to afternoon
hours. Unfortunately, these thunderstorms don`t seem to be heavy
rain makers expect for the few fortunate locations that may see two
rounds or slow moving thunderstorms initially in the event so
drought conditions won`t be significantly impacted from this event.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 16 2022

Similar to prior days this week, Wednesday will see another
shortwave trough come out of the central Rockies in the zonal flow
aloft, resulting in scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Models tending to favor the southwest and southern
parts of the forecast area for best chances. Instability is
forecast to be rather weak, but deep layer shear of 30-40 kts may
be sufficient for a marginal risk of a few severe storms on
Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 80s and lows in the

Thursday will be the hot day of the period with southwesterly
downsloping winds both aloft and at the surface. Trended towards
warmer guidance and raised highs a bit to the lower to middle 90s,
maybe some upper 90s in typically hotter areas from McCook to
Hill City. Despite the warm temperatures, instability is very weak
and even then appears to be capped, so will keep it dry for
Thursday. However, critical fire weather conditions are currently
forecast for western half of the area and a watch may be needed.
As for winds, strongest winds will be in northeast Colorado where
mixed layer taps into about 40 kts, with lesser speeds in the
mixed layer further east. Rather potent cold front for late May
will move through Thursday night. May see some brief gusty winds
along/behind the front with pressure gradient. Low temperatures
Thursday night/Friday morning will range from the upper 30s in
northeast Colorado to around 50 in Hill City.

Friday will be much cooler with high temperatures in the 50s and
60s and breezy north winds. As upper trough moves through, will
see scattered showers develop first in northeast Colorado Friday
afternoon and rest of the area Friday night. Late Friday night,
may see rain mix with or change to snow along the Palmer Divide
area in northeast Colorado. However, not expecting accumulating
snow at this time. May need frost and freeze highlights for
Friday night/Saturday morning with lows currently forecast in the
lower 30s in northeast Colorado to around 40 in Hill City and all
areas well into the growing season.

For Saturday-Monday, currently expecting dry conditions and a
warming trend. However, GFS does show another trough moving
through Sunday night and Monday with precipitation chances, though
the ECMWF is dry. In fact, by Monday the GFS and ECMWF become
nearly out of phase with the upper pattern. Given the
discrepancies, low confidence in the latter periods, especially
with regards to precipitation chances. Temperatures will be below
normal on Saturday, near normal on Sunday, and slightly above
normal by Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon May 16 2022

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A south
wind around 12kts at taf issuance will continue through 10z before
falling below 12kts from the south around 11z. Winds veer to the
west-southwest around 10kts by 16z then to the north at similar
speeds by 18z, continuing through 22z on the leading edge of the
dryline. After 23z winds veer to the northeast, occasionally
gusting over 20kts. Have introduced VCTS in the 02z-03z timeframe
as storms approach the terminal from the northwest. Severe weather
is possible with wind gusts over 50kts and large this
time latest HRRR shows the stronger wind gusts far enough away
from the terminal to prevent inclusion into the forecast but this
may change as we get closer to the event.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through 02z. A southeast wind
around 11kts at taf issuance will continue through 16z then veer
to the southwest at similar speeds through 18z then become light
and variable through 21z. From 22z-01 northeast winds around 10kts
are expected. From 02z-06z thunderstorms will be possible, moving
in from the west. Have added a PROB30 group for 02z-05z for wind
gusts to 45kts and 5SM -TSRA which becomes sub VFR conditions.
Current 00z HRRR has strong wind gusts than currently in the
forecast and severe weather is possible (hail and wind).




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