Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
528 AM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Issued at 511 AM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Update to forecast to remove mention of rw based on latest radar
trend...and to adjust sky cover based on latest satellite image.
Currently western portions of the CWA are clearing faster than
expected with only scattered lingering low clouds at best right
now. Remainder of the CWA mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions but
based on trend already...should be clearing a bit faster as well.
With no echoes showing on radar have removed pops from morning
forecast. Have continued mention of patchy fog for a few hrs this


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Across the region this morning...skies remain cloudy at this time as
area still under influence of circulation from exiting upper low.
Bulk of precip from last night has exited well south and east of the
area...w/ only a few showers remaining over the southern CWA. With
cooler air over the region...current temps are only in the upper 50s
thru the lower 60s. Full shift to a NW flow has not happen yet
despite surface front over central/southern portions of KS...but
expected as upper low pulls further east away from the region later
in the morning.

For the morning hrs though...looking for any remaining shower
activity to exit east by mid morning/midday. With ample low level
moisture from overnight rains...have a mention of patchy fog thru

With heavy rainfall from thunder now east of the region...will be
allowing Flash Flood Watch to be cancelled. Areal Flood Warning for
SE CWA remains intact and will await daytime sunshine to allow local
EM`s to assess flooding before canceling.

For the afternoon hours and on into Thursday...dry conditions
expected as skies clear out with upper ridge building into the area
from the Rockies. Model discrepancies for Thursday night as upper
ridge crests over the Central Plains. Some are showing a weak
shortwave working over the northern portion of the ridge and across
the area. With surface flow shifting to the SE some upslope
flow/precip is showing up in tandem with the shortwave. This could
trigger a few showers but will hold off mention of wx during this
time to see if models become more consistent in subsequent runs.

Friday and Friday night will see the return for another potential
round of rw/trw. High pressure east of the CWA with lee-side trough
over the Front Range allowing for southerly surface flow during this
time. Upper ridge shifts east as well during this time with a
500/700mb shortwave working off the Rockies behind it. This
shortwave will interact with with the southerly moist surface flow
to trigger rw/trw. Right now model timing has precip increasing
overnight as shortwave digs south into the moist unstable airmass.

For temps...looking for highs today to only range from the mid 70s
to around 80F as cooler air will remain over the area during the
next 24 hours. For Thursday and Friday with upper ridge cresting
over the area then shifting east...daytime highs will climb to the
lower 80s Thursday...then the lower to mid 80s on Friday. Overnight
lows will mainly range in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The active pattern continues into the beginning of next week with a
shortwave followed by a trough moving over northern Colorado and
southern Wyoming Sunday afternoon. Strong PVA from this shortwave
will lead to the return of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening into the overnight hours. The ECMWF and GFS are now more in
alignment spatially and temporally regarding upper level placement
and precipitation Sunday and Monday. Rain is expected to continue
through Monday as the upper level low moves SE over the central
Plains bringing a vorticity maximum.

The upper level low begins to move northeast Tuesday taking the rain
chances with it. By Wednesday, a ridge begins to move into the
central U.S. leading to increased temperatures and dry conditions.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

For KGLD...mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period. Brief
MVFR 12z-14z with ceilings BKN020 at times. Winds NW around 10kts
thru 15z then N 10-20kts...shifting back to NW around 10kts by
06z Thursday.

For KMCK...VFR/MVFR mix with lower ceilings BKN020-30 from 12z-
16z Wed and again 02z-09z Thursday. Winds NNW 10-20kts thru 09z
Thursday...then WNW around 10kts.




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