833
FXUS63 KGLD 251750
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1150 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An approaching upper level low will bring another round of
  precipitation to the region this evening into Monday morning.
  Low chance of flooding from this system.

- Patchy dense fog possible the next few mornings.

- Temperatures may fall into the mid 30`s Tuesday morning,
  mainly along/north of Highway 36.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

As expected, the upper level low over the Four Corners is
causing a jet streak to span from Baja California to the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Down at 850 mb, there is a weak
stationary boundary setup over the CWA, providing the forcing
for the early morning showers that will persist through most of
the day. We are also seeing weak northeasterly flow at the
surface. These northeasterly winds will promote fog development
this morning. There is 20% confidence that patches of dense fog
(0.25 mile visibility) will form across portions of the CWA
where precipitation has recently fallen and precipitation ceases
around sunrise.

The stationary boundary persists through into Sunday night, but
gradually diffuses as a new 850 mb lee low forms in southern
Colorado overnight. PoPs will lower throughout the day, but
never go away. At 500 mb, another closed low moves into the
northwestern CONUS this afternoon and will absorb the Four
Corners low into its flow this evening and overnight. With the
500 mb low moving again by Monday morning, the 850 mb low ejects
to the northeast. This will reinvigorating the stationary
boundary across the CWA, increasing PoPs for Monday morning. By
Monday evening, the 500 mb low will be pulling out of the
central High Plains and the precipitation will begin to taper
off as zonal flow and the Gulf high pushes into the region. We
expect precipitation to completely end around 0-6Z Tuesday.

With the prolonged precipitation, we are expecting notable
rainfall. More information about precipitation amounts and
potential hazards can be found in the Hydrology section below.

Today and Monday, highs look to be in the mid 50s to upper 60s.
Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings look to be in the
mid 30s to mid 40s, with the cooler temperatures in the
northwestern CWA. There is a less than 2% chance areas northwest
of a line from Vona, CO to Haigler, NE see some isolated
flurries this morning mixed in with the rain. Even with surface
temperatures being so low, the southwesterly flow at 700-850 mb
will keep a strong, moist warm nose, fully melting any
dendrites.

Tuesday morning, as the precipitation exits, temperatures along
and north of U.S. 34 look to be cooling to just above freezing.
Southerly, warm, moist air advection early Tuesday is forecast
to keep dew points above freezing and saturate most of the area,
making fog across the CWA is possible. However, there is a 20%
chance that this advection is weaker than expected. This would
likely allow temperatures to cool to just below freezing and
introduces the threat for freezing fog along and north of U.S.
34. This is a threat that will need to be monitored closely.
Additionally, minimum wind chills in this area are forecast to
drop into the mid to upper 20s. It`s worth noting that we have
passed the end of the growing season, so we will not be issuing
any Frost or Freeze products for the rest of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent
through Friday. Starting Tuesday afternoon, we transition to
more of a southwest upper-level flow. This will usher in several
days of mostly sunny skies with high temperatures forecast in
the upper 60s to low 70s through Friday. The western county
warning area (CWA) could see some breezy afternoons with wind
gusts around 25 mph possible. Compared to previous runs, models
have overall backed down on the wind potential for Tuesday
afternoon, but NBM still has around a 30% chance for wind gusts
over 30 mph for Kit Carson county.

Friday, a trough off the coast of British Columbia will begin
to dig south and has the potential to switch us to more of an
active weather pattern. Models are uncertain on the track and
evolution of the deepening trough, but beginning Friday
afternoon through Sunday evening, several embedded shortwave
passages are forecast to move through the area bringing chances
for precipitation. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are
around 20-30%, increasing from west to east. Precipitation
chances and amounts will heavily depend on where the trough ends
up setting up and how quickly it moves through the area.
Regardless of precipitation chances, temperatures are forecast
to be pleasant Friday through Sunday with highs in the 60s to
70s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

GLD: IFR ceilings will likely prevail through the afternoon.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate to LIFR or VLIFR shortly
after sunset (~02Z Mon) as ceilings lower and showers redevelop
over eastern CO and western KS. The majority of guidance
suggests that conditions will begin to improve during the late
morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF period. Light/variable
winds will prevail through tonight, becoming southerly and
increasing to 12-15 knots during the late morning, near the end
of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: IFR ceilings and occasional showers will prevail through
the afternoon. Conditions are expected to deteriorate to LIFR or
VLIFR shortly after sunset (~01Z Mon) as ceilings lower and
scattered to numerous showers redevelop over western KS and
southwest NE. The majority of guidance suggests that conditions
will begin to improve during the late morning (15-17Z Mon), near
the end of the 18Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will
prevail through tonight, becoming southerly and increasing to
10-15 knots during the late morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

As mentioned in the short-term discussion above, we are
expecting on and off precipitation to last into Monday evening.
So far, the event is unfolding as expected. As of 7Z, most of
the CWA has received some precipitation. The east-southeastern
CWA is currently the area where little/no precipitation has yet
fallen. The bulk of it has fallen in a roughly 30 mile wide band
from Towner, CO to Trenton, NE. In this band, initial reports
suggest 0.5-1.25 inches of rain has fallen. An additional
widespread 0.1-0.3 inches, a band of 1-2 inches, and pockets of
up to 3 inches of rainfall by midnight Tuesday morning is
forecast.

There is a notable variation between deterministics and
ensembles with this forecast: where the higher precipitation
band sets up. Ensembles favor it staying in place (denoted in
the first paragraph) while deterministics push it fully into
eastern Colorado. Either way, it appears that the eastern CWA
will continue to receive the least amount of precipitation from
this event.

If the band remains in place, there is a 35% chance of areal
and/or river flooding. Low water crossings will likely be the
first areas impacted from any flooding that does occur. If the
band shifts to the west, that risk drops to around 5-10%. The
risk for Flash Flooding still remains low, now around 10% and
would favor areas that received the heavier precipitation and
are south of I-70.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Vincent
HYDROLOGY...CA