577
FXUS63 KGLD 230618
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1218 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are forecast to move through the area this
  afternoon and evening. They may be severe with large hail and
  wind gusts around 60-70 mph. There is also a low chance for
  flooding.

- Triple digit temperatures are likely to return to most of the
  area this weekend. Heat indices in the mid-100s are possible
  Saturday through Monday, increasing the risk for heat related
  illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

|Showers and storms that had developed along the higher terrain in
Eastern Colorado are currently moving slowly to the east. There
remains a fair amount of MUCAPE late in the evening, but convective
inhibition continues to build. With this, storms will likely either
make it to either Highway 27 or Highway 25 before beginning to
falter and dissipate. That being said, the outflow pushing through
in the moist environment may allow additional storms to fire up with
the remaining portions to the east seeing storms. The benefit is
that it looks like the severe and flooding threat are minimal for
the remainder of the night as the environment gets less supportive.
Temperatures should remain in the 60s, while winds remain from the
southeast around 10-20 mph.

For the daytime Thursday, the cloud cover is forecast to slowly burn
off from west to east as a shortwave slowly moves through and the
surface low pushes further east to just south of the area. This,
along with the slight deamplifying of the upper ridge, is forecast
to keep most locations north of I-70 in the low to mid 90s while
those further south should near 100 again. Winds should remain from
the east/southeast at 10-20 mph, with the stronger winds in the
eastern half of the area on the leading edge of the surface low.

More showers and storms are forecast to fire up during the afternoon
and evening hours, potentially in two batches. The first batch looks
to form in Southeastern Colorado around 2-4pm MT and push northeast
along the front-center of the low. The second batch would be with
the usual development along the higher terrain of the Palmer Divide
that would push east/southeast with the surface low. The overall
environment for locales north of Highway 40 would be pretty similar
to Wednesday, favoring an occasional wind gust up to 65 mph and
heavy rainfall. The main difference is that the storm motions are
all about 5-10 kts faster, which would have lowered the chance for
flooding if it was for the possibility of two batches of storms and
clustering allowing for multiple storms to move over a given area.
Flooding should generally be spotty and nuisance level, but
keep an eye out for rainfall totals nearing 4 inches in spots.
The biggest change for Thursday is that those south of Highway
40 could be in an environment with 0-6km shear closer to 40 kts
and MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg. With this, a strong storm may be
able to produce large hail up to ping pong ball in size. Most
hail should be small with high LCLs and freezing levels again,
but keep an eye out for a persistently strong storm and larger
hail.

Most of the storms activity should leave the area by about 2-3am CT
as both the shortwave and surface low push the storms off to the
east. This should allow skies to begin clearing late in the night
and have temperatures drop into the 60s. Those east of Highway 83
may still closer to 70 if the cloud cover lingers and/or some fog
tries to develop and linger through the remainder of the night.

Friday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to shift back east over the
High Plains and amplify. With this, clear skies and lighter winds
around 5-10 mph are forecast for the area. Temperatures are forecast
to again top out in the 90s with the main axis of the upper ridge to
just a bit west of the area and low level flow from the north
inhibiting warmer air from moving in. Precipitation is not expected
with the upper level subsidence and lack of forcing with a broad
surface low over the Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance is supportive of a
longwave upper-level ridge centered across the High Plains for the
entirety of the long term period. The feature appears strong enough
that shortwave troughs from the Aleutian Islands will be redirected
northeastward before they encroach into the United States. However,
broad surface lows in association with these troughs look to favor
southerly surface flow across the forecast region at least through
Sunday night. Hot conditions appear favored over the weekend, with
highs forecast in the mid 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and upper 90s
to mid 100s Sunday. Heat index values in the mid 100s are possible,
especially Sunday along and east of Kansas Highway 25 where dew
points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are possible. NBM guidance
suggests over a 90% chance for much of Northwest Kansas and
Southwest Nebraska to experience temperatures over 100 degrees
Sunday afternoon. Confidence in a Heat Advisory being needed Sunday
is around 30%. In addition to the hot weather, dry conditions are
forecast as well. Relative humidities (RH) are forecast to be low,
especially on Sunday when they drop into the upper teens across
portions of Eastern Colorado. Even so, critical fire weather
conditions are not yet a concern, as wind gusts are forecast to max
out in the low to mid 20 mph. NBM guidance suggests a 20% chance or
less across Eastern Colorado that wind gusts will meet critical fire
weather criteria (25 mph or greater). As such, confidence in a Red
Flag Warning being needed across this zone is less than 5%.


GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance shows a stationary low
developing across portions of Utah and Colorado Monday. This may
allow for showers and thunderstorms to return to the area Monday
through Wednesday. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows the
highest chances to receive greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation
across Eastern Colorado, with some areas over a 40% chance each day.
Thunderstorms are not favored to become severe during this period,
as GFS and EC model soundings show 0-6km shear maxing out around 30
kts. However, it may be important to note that GFS soundings are
showing a deep inverted-V profile up to nearly 500-mb. If
thunderstorms could occur with this sounding profile, microbursts
would be possible, with a chance of experiencing severe winds.
Confidence in severe weather occurring is about 5% for each day
Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures in the mid 100s may continue
into Monday as well. NBM guidance suggests between a 70-90% chance
for temperatures to rise above 100 degrees. Confidence in a Heat
Advisory being needed Monday is around 15%. High temperatures begin
slightly dropping on Tuesday into the mid 90s to lower 100s, and low
to mid 90s Wednesday, which would dramatically decrease the
likelihood of further Heat Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected, but chances for
storms continue. Both terminals are forecast to have showers
overhead with storms in the vicinity through at least 08Z, but
potentially as late as 12Z (especially at KMCK). There may also
be a brief period of ceilings around 1000-1500 ft once the
storms clear. The daytime hours should see mostly clear
conditions or clouds above 6000ft. Storms are forecast to
develop again to the west and push east. KGLD has an 80% chance
for showers and storms after 21Z while KMCK only has a 20%
chance. Be alert for wind gusts potentially reaching 50-60 kts
with storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...KAK