685
FXUS63 KGLD 292218
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
418 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated marginally severe storm is possible this afternoon
  in northeast Colorado with hail up to quarter size through
  early this evening.

- Potentially widespread light to occasionally moderate rainfall
  Wednesday night through Thursday for areas along and south of
  Interstate 70 in Colorado and Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A surface high is exiting the area leading to the dissipation of the
morning fog. 700mb frontogenesis is seen across portions of
Yuma county this morning which looks to be the main focus for
rainfall development for the area. RAP cross sections show that
some lingering dry air near the surface is present across most
of the area which is impacting the coverage of rainfall this
morning but should gradually improve as the day goes on as the
dissipation of the rain should improve the moisture quality in
the low levels. Rain coverage is forecast to improve across the
area as synoptic forcing improves as the area is in the right
entrance of a 500mb jet. Forecast soundings indicate around
800-1000 j/kg of MUCAPE along with 7.5-8.0 c/km and 0-6 shear
around 40 knots. If a robust enough of an updraft can occur then
hail around quarter size may be able to occur. Wind does not
look to be much of a concern but wind gusts of 45-55 mph may be
present as well.

Overnight, a strengthening 250mb jet puts locales along and
south of I70 in the left exit region of a 140 knot jet streak. A
700mb FGEN band is forecast to be in place as well which may
lead to a corridor of moderate rainfall rates but the exact
location of this band varies between the RAP and NAM as the NAM
keeps it north of I70. 00Z LREF favors the RAP solution of the
further south placement so will focus higher rainfall chances
across southern portions of the area. Overall a prolonged light
rain is forecast to be in place especially south of the
Interstate. The increase in clouds and precipation is forecast
to keep overnight low temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s
across the entire forecast area.

Thursday, a stationary boundary is forecast to be in place south of
the Interstate where rainfall is forecast to continue to be in place
through the morning hours. An additional shortwave is forecast
to move through the area leading to another round of showers and
storms across the area. An isolated thunderstorm is possible as
a couple hundred j/kg of MUCAPE is forecast to remain in place
across the area but overall shear and lapse rates are more
meager so any threat of strong to severe storms looks fairly
minimal at this time. Thursday night, high pressure is forecast
to move into the area from the north bringing an end to the rain
from north to south as drier air moves in. As this occurs skies
are forecast to clear out and winds become light and variable.
Due to this temperatures are forecast to fall to around freezing
due to radiational cooling.

Friday, disorganized ridging is forecast to be in place across
the western CONUS. Winds are forecast to be in light and
variable during the morning. Forecast soundings are forecast to
be saturated so fog is possible as well for the morning hours.
A large mixing ratio difference from the surface to 1km AGL
supports the potential for dense fog as well. A strong 500mb
vorticity maxima is forecast to move across Kansas associated
with a large low pressure system across the Great Lakes.
Currently this forecast to remain to the east of the area. GFS
spaghetti is favoring a bit of a further west trend with this so
will need to be monitored to see if this does become the norm
with guidance. If this does occur then some additional afternoon
showers and storm may become possible as well. Any storms
however would be mainly gusty to strong winds with inverted
soundings in place with dew points in the upper 20s to low 30s
across the area which does bring some concern for dry lightning
should anything develop with this. High temperatures for the day
are currently forecast in the 60s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Going into the weekend, we transition to more of a ridge
pattern. Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures forecast in
the 70s for Saturday and 70s to 80s for Sunday. Elevated fire
weather conditions are possible for a few hours Sunday. Relative
humidity (RH) values are forecast in the the mid teens with gusts up
to 25 mph possible for the western CWA. RH values will likely change
in response to showers and thunderstorms earlier in the week, but
still something to monitor for as the week progresses. Sunday, a Rex
blocking pattern is forecast to develop on the west coast with a
ridge near the Canadian border and a low pressure system near
California. Until this blocking pattern starts to move east, we will
see fairly consistent weather for the remainder of the forecast
period. Expect mild temperatures in the 70s and potential for
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as several shortwaves
traverse through the region. GEFS Ensemble members differ on when
this pattern will move on, but it will likely move on after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rain is currently moving across the MCK terminal with the
potential for off and on showers remaining through the rest of
the evening. Watching an outflow moving towards GLD which has
been producing more showers as it moves but confidence is not
high enough to ensure this will continue to be the case as it
moves through GLD. A wind shift to the north and slightly higher
winds are forecast as it moves through the terminal. Rain is
forecast to continue at GLD through the night along with the
potential for MVFR ceilings for GLD. MCK is forecast to remain
at MCK through the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Trigg