023
FXUS63 KGLD 270712
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
112 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Northwest Kansas and
  Southwest Nebraska through the early evening hours today.
  There is a low chance that early showers/storms develop and
  lower temperatures during the afternoon.

- Showers/storms are possible through the day today. The best
  chance for showers/storms is during the late afternoon though
  the overnight hours. This is also when the area may see severe
  weather, including wind gusts to 75 mph, large hail, and maybe
  some flooding.

- Showers/storms are possible through much of the week, mainly
  during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Current observations show the upper ridge still in place over much
of the United States, though it looks like it is deamplifying
slightly. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure is draped
across the area. Cloud cover continues to dry and develop,
mainly over the western portion of the area in the wake of old
storm outflows. With a bit of low level jet that has developed
ahead of the low system, it wouldn`t be unreasonable for a few
showers and maybe even a storm or two to form overnight.
Otherwise, the increase in cloud cover and winds from the
south/southwest around 10 mph are keeping temperatures a bit
elevated. With temperatures close to midnight still in the 80s,
lows will likely only drop into the 70s.

During the daytime hours today, the surface low is forecast to track
south while deepening. This may allow a few showers to develop
during the morning hours, mainly on the backside of the surface low
and closer to the Tri-State border. With this, Eastern Colorado will
likely be cooler, so they were kept out of the Heat Advisory for
today. Otherwise, the Heat Advisory continues for Northwest Kansas
and Southwest Nebraska with temperatures and heat index values
expected to again climb into the mid to upper 100s. In the scenario
though where showers and storms are forming during the morning,
those west of Highway 83 may have cloud cover and storms cap their
temperatures more in the 80s and 90s, which would end the heat
threat. Confidence in an early end is currently around 35%.

Going into the afternoon hours, if early showers/storms did not
develop or alter the environment too much, then storms are expected
to fire along the surface convergence zone with the low and the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. This currently is forecast to be
around the I-70 and Highway 40 corridors. This would start the
severe threat for the area as storms would likely be stronger at
this point. That being said, effective shear around 20 kts due to
the overall weak flow will likely limit the chance for severe hail
to a few isolated instances up to half-dollar and ping pong ball in
size. Tornadoes also seem unlikely due to the weak shear and high
LCLs around 9000-10000ft. That being said, it wouldn`t be impossible
for a landspout or hybrid tornado to form with any initial
storms along the surface convergence boundary. This then leads
us to the main threat of wind. With high based storms, high
PWATs, and somewhat skinny CAPE with values around 2000-3000
J/kg, there may be enough precipitation loading for microbursts
with the likely pulsey storms. Most of these are suggested to be
in the 40-60 mph range by guidance, but there are some hints of
gusts around the 75 mph range. This would likely favor the
western half of the area, where not only could the initial
storms develop with the boundary, but a secondary cluster from
Colorado could also push in if the environment again was not
made too stable by earlier storms. This secondary group also is
giving some concern for flooding. With storm motions forecast to
be fairly slow around 10 kts and high freezing levels around
18000ft suggesting that melting hail is possible, storms may be
able to produce 1-3 inches over a given area. If a few of these
storms could develop and then track roughly over the same area,
flooding may result.

The short version of all this is that storms are possible through
the day, with a main wave during the evening if prior showers/storms
don`t stabilize the environment too much. Most of the area would see
beneficial rain, but there could be isolated instances of
severe weather and flooding.

Tonight may see showers/storms linger as long as the main wave
pushes through the area. The combination of outflows and the surface
low lingering nearby may be enough to spark a few extra showers.
Otherwise, locales that don`t have their area cooled off by outflow
would see temperatures again linger in the 70s and 80s. The only
change is that winds would likely be from the north, with the area
on the backside of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Synoptically, not much has changed; the ridge that has been
in place over the Four Corners region is still likely to stay
nearly stationary over the next week. By Saturday, guidance
shows a signal that the ridge will weaken as a trough moves
along the U.S./Canada border. Throughout the week, there should
be a few shortwaves moving through the area.

High temperatures for the week look to "cool" down to the mid
to high 90s. Winds look to remain under 25 MPH with RH values
staying above 25%, minimizing fire weather concerns.

Tuesday`s PoPs are currently forecast to be in the 30-60% range,
with the highest chances in eastern Colorado. Guidance indicates
that the surface low to the south of the CWA will likely remain
there throughout the day. With the low stationary, winds should
mainly be from the east-northeast, promoting upslope flow for
showers and storms. After looking at the instability and shear
for severe storm potential, there is a low end chance that they
would be severe, something we will need to watch over the next
few days. For the northwestern portions of the CWA, there is a
25-40% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation from Tuesday
afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday still look to have higher precipitation chances of the
long-term period as a shortwave propagates through during the
afternoon and evening hours. Guidance indicates a boundary moving in
from the northwest toward the southeast, though models disagree on
its exact location and timing. Currently, both the GFS and Canadian
models show the boundary. However, the GFS brings it in during the
late afternoon hour, whereas the Canadian delays it until early
Thursday morning. Other guidance doesn`t have the boundary. If
it does materialize, the severe storm potential is again low,
but not 0. PoPs are forecast in the 40-65 range, giving eastern
Colorado the highest PoPs. Eastern Colorado also has a 25-45%
chance of seeing 0.10" of precipitation. Give this is roughly
four days out, it will be interesting to see how guidance trends
for the location and speed of the boundary.

For the rest of the week and weekend, PoPs steadily decrease.
Thursday`s chances are around 20-30% while Friday-Sunday stay around
10-20%. However, with shortwaves passing through, any favorable
lifting mechanism could increase the precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both sites
through the period. Winds are forecast to generally be below 10
kts and vary through the night. By mid-morning, winds should
stabilize from the east around 10-15 kts. There will be some
persistent 20% chances for storms starting around 18Z, but the
better chances are around 0Z for KGLD, and 3Z for KMCK. Winds
may gust above 50 kts with storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA/Holdren
AVIATION...KAK