155
FXUS63 KGLD 120900
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively breezy conditions expected through mid-week.

- Monday will be hot ahead of a cold front that brings much
  cooler conditions for Tuesday-Wednesday. Portions of the area
  may see lows dip into the upper 40s Wednesday morning.

- Scattered strong storms may develop along this front Monday
  evening. Gusty winds would be the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Overview: Modest unidirectional /westerly/ flow aloft will
weaken over the weekend as the main belt of mid-latitude
westerlies shifts northward (over the Northern Plains) in
response to an amplifying ridge over the Southern Plains.

Today-Tonight: Surface pressure rises over the Canadian
Prairies, associated with height rises / synoptic subsidence in
the wake of an upper level trough progressing east across
Saskatchewan and Manitoba.. augmented by outflow from scattered
high based convection over portions of southeast WY, northern CO
and the NE Panhandle and a linear mesoscale convective system
over south central and southeast NE.. will propel an inverted
surface ridge southward through the Tri-State Area this morning,
the leading edge of which will manifest as a northeasterly wind
shift and effective cold frontal passage prior to sunrise
(~08-12Z). Expect cooler temperatures in the wake of the front,
with highs ranging from the mid 70`s (north) to lower 80`s
(south). If low stratus develops after the frontal passage, as
forecast soundings from current and recent runs of the HRRR and
RAP suggest, highs could easily be several degrees cooler,
especially if status persists into the afternoon. Low confidence
in stratus development, coverage and duration. Expect Sunday
morning lows ranging from the mid 50`s to lower 60`s. While
convection is not anticipated during the day, guidance suggests
that strengthening low-level (850 mb) warm advection over
southwest and south central Kansas could facilitate the
development of elevated convection in eastern portions of the
area late this evening, mainly along/south of I-70 in Logan and
Gove counties ~03-06Z. A variety of factors may influence the
evolution of the 850 mb height/temperature pattern today.. e.g.
morning convection in central-eastern KS, whether or not low
stratus develops over portions of western KS (and if so, to what
extent/duration).. which, in turn, may influence the location
and magnitude of low-level warm advection tonight. Increased
pattern complexity equals increased uncertainty.. decreasing
forecast confidence.

Sun-Sun night: Expect a warming trend as an upper level ridge
amplifies over the Southern Plains and surface high pressure
over the Dakotas/Northern Plains (and associated surface ridge
extending southward into the Central Plains) shifts east toward
the Mississippi River Valley, though.. early morning convection
and low ceilings in central KS may temporarily reinforce the
surface ridge and delay airmass modification.. resulting in a
thermal gradient over far northeast portions of the Goodland
CWA. Expect highs ranging from ~80F (portions of Red Willow/
Norton counties) to upper 80`s and lower 90`s elsewhere, warmest
south of I-70 near the KS-CO border. Precipitation is presently
not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

The new work week will start off on the hot and breezy side as
the area remains sandwiched between a potent (but progressive)
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies and a strong upper
ridge over the Deep South. Deepening lee troughing, in response
to the N Rockies trough, will lead to moderately breezy
southerly winds and efficient mixing of an impressive late
summer low level thermal ridge. Latest NBM blend calls for high
temperatures in the 90s across the entire area. Far S/SE zones
may be even warmer given exceedance values of 100 degrees in the
15-25 percent range. Another caveat to keep an eye on will be
the timing/placement of a cold front associated with
aforementioned trough. General consensus is that this front
should remain near or just N of the KS/NE state line through
peak heating, but any minor trends one way or another could lead
to forecast changes in these areas. Fire weather shouldn`t
become a concern as latest RH forecasts generally keep values at
or above 25%. Also, wind speeds may actually decrease through
the afternoon (esp. central and northern zones) with closer
proximity to the approaching cold front.

Main question/potential weather impact for Monday evening and
overnight will be if deep convection can develop along the cold
front. If storms can indeed form, conceptual model would support
high-based convection with potential to tap into hot/deeply
mixed boundary layer (inverted-v profiles) and produce
strong/severe wind gusts. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates
(~7.5 C/km), and hints of locally enhanced deep layer shear
immediately along the boundary (35-45kts?) could also support a
large hail threat. It`s not a forgone conclusion that everyone
will see storms/rain, though, as moisture/instability will be
lacking (at least initially) and best upper forcing will slide
across the Dakotas...but this does look to be our next best
chance for precipitation (60-80%).

Tuesday will be significantly cooler behind the front as latest
ensembles show 25th to 75th percentile temperatures mainly in
the 70s. Exception could be the far S/SE that still manage to
warm into the lower 80s. Regardless...solid 20-25 degrees cooler
than Monday. Cooler temperatures will also come with a
refreshing NE breeze. With drier air may come a brief taste of
40s for esp. N/NW zones Wednesday AM. High pressure nosing in
from the N. Plains should keep mild temperatures going through
midweek, but would expect some gradual air mass modification
back to near or just above normal for the end of the week.

Extended periods are littered with off an on POPs, though
confidence in any given period getting precipitation is low. The
area will be located on the western side of a flattened upper
ridge that`s centered over the Deep South. This will promote
advection of monsoonal upper moisture and at least a few weak
perturbations in SW upper flow. These could support development
of late afternoon convection along the Front Range that shifts E
during the evening, but again, confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

GLD: Low confidence in ceilings for much of the TAF period.
Current and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP continue to suggest
a potential for IFR ceilings to develop in the wake of a cold
frontal passage this morning, and that MVFR ceilings could
persist through the remainder of the morning (possibly into the
afternoon). -If- MVFR ceilings develop and persist through much
of the day, improvement during the late afternoon would likely
be short-lived, with ceilings quickly deteriorating to IFR
after sunset. Breezy (15-20 G 25 KT) northeasterly winds will
prevail through mid-morning, decreasing to 10-15 knots during
the late morning to early afternoon, veering to the E during the
late afternoon and ESE or SE during the evening.

MCK: Low confidence in ceilings for much of the TAF period.
Current and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP continue to suggest
that MVFR ceilings (2000-3000 ft AGL) may develop in the wake
of a cold frontal passage this morning, and that MVFR ceilings
could persist through the remainder of the morning (possibly
into the afternoon), though.. the strongest signal for stratus
development is generally south of the McCook terminal. Breezy
(15-20 G 25 KT) northeasterly winds will prevail through mid-
morning, decreasing to 10-15 knots during the late morning to
early afternoon, veering to the E during the late afternoon and
ESE or SE during the evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...Vincent