577
FXUS63 KGLD 270237
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
837 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Monday for all of
  Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska, where air temps and
  heat indices ~105-110F and overnight lows in the 70`s will
  lead to a high risk of heat related illnesses and place
  considerable stress on livestock and outdoor pets.

- A few severe storms are possible Monday aft-eve, mainly in
  eastern CO. Localized wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary
  hazard. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage.

- Potential for late aft-eve thunderstorms through mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 354 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over
the Rockies and adjacent portions of the Central and Southern
Plains will persist through the short term period.

No significant changes; Heat Advisory remains in place, as-is.

Today-Tonight: Record breaking heat. As of 2 pm MDT (20 UTC),
air temperatures were at or above 103F in most locations,
hottest in Leoti, where the air temperature was 109F. High
temperature records (for the date) have already been broken in
Goodland, Burlington and McCook. Most locations have seen heat
indices at or above 105F, hottest (110-114F) in northeast /
lower elevation portions of the area where low-level moisture is
relatively deeper and surface dewpoints require additional time
to mix out. Diurnal Cu (and a turkey tower or two) has
developed in vicinity of a poorly defined surface trough / weak
low-level convergence zone over eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE
border counties where surface temperatures rapidly reached
104-108F, removing convective inhibition. While warm upper level
temperatures (-2 to -3C at 500 mb) and a considerable amount of
dry air aloft will tend to suppress convective development, a
few high-based updrafts capable of producing brief/sporadic dry
lightning strikes are possible until sunset. Expect overnight
(Mon morning) lows ~70-80F, warmest along/east of Hwy 83.

Mon-Mon night: Mainly a persistence forecast. With little
change in the synoptic pattern, expect sensible weather
conditions similar to today. Guidance insists that scattered
diurnal convection will develop in the typical, topographically
favored areas of Colorado (e.g. Palmer Divide, Front Range) at
peak heating, possibly assisted by small amplitude disturbances
progressing anticyclonically around the ridge (i.e. NE-ENE from
the Desert Southwest to central Rockies), though.. this is far
from clear. With such weak steering flow beneath the ridge, one
would think that convection developing on the Palmer Divide
would be hard-pressed to progress east of the CO-KS border.
Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of
the HRRR and NAM NEST exhibit poor model-to-model and run-to-run
continuity, suggesting that mesoscale features (e.g. an MCV)
emanating from upstream convection will play a role in
convective development and coverage in the Goodland county
warning area. With the above in mind, eastern CO appears to have
the best chance for thunderstorms and brief, localized wind
gusts ~70 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Synoptically, not much has changed; the ridge that has been in
place over the Four Corners region is still likely to stay
nearly stationary over the next week. By Saturday, guidance is
starting to signal that the ridge will begin to de-amplify as a
trough moves along the US/Canada border. Throughout the week,
there should be a few shortwaves moving through the area.

High temperatures for the week look to "cool" down to the mid
to high 90s. Winds look to remain calm to breezy, with minimum
relative humidity values staying above 25%.

Moving to precipitation chances for the period:

Tuesday`s PoP`s are currently forecast to be in the 30-60%
range, with the highest percentages in eastern Colorado.
Guidance indicates that the surface low just to the south of the
CWA will likely remain there throughout the day. With the low
stationary, winds should mainly be from the east-northeast,
promoting upslope flow for showers/storms. After looking at
instability and shear for severe storm potential, there are
signs that if storms were develop, they would mainly stay on the
marginal side. For the northwestern portion of the CWA, there
is a 25-40% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation from the
afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday still looks to have higher precipitation chances of
the long-term period as a shortwave propagates through during
the afternoon and evening. Guidance indicates a boundary moving
in from the northwest toward the southeast, though models
disagree on its exact location and timing. Currently, both the
GFS and Canadian models show the boundary; however, the GFS
brings it in late afternoon, whereas the Canadian delays it
until early Thursday morning. Other guidance doesn`t have the
boundary. If it does materialize, severe storm potential would
be marginal. PoPs are currently forecast to be 40-65% where once
again eastern Colorado having the highest percentages. Eastern
Colorado currently has a 2545% chance of exceeding 0.10" of
precipitation. Given this is roughly four days out, it will be
interesting to see how guidance trends for the location and
speed of the boundary.

For the rest of the week and weekend, PoPs steadily decrease.
Thursdays chances are around 2030%, and Friday through Sunday
stays around 10-20% each day. However, with shortwaves passing
through, any favorable lifting mechanism, like a boundary or
front, could nudge these precipitation chances up or down as we
get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A brief high-based updraft capable of producing a dry lightning
strike cannot be ruled out near the Goodland terminal late this
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light/variable winds
are expected to rule through the TAF period at both terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Vincent