864
FXUS63 KGLD 312319
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
519 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog chances continue tonight and tomorrow morning.

- Chances for rain through Monday.

- Monday could bring some strong winds with gusts around 30-60
  mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

At 500 mb, we have a potent shortwave trough moving over the central
High Plains. This is providing some light to moderate forcing,
allowing showers to occur along and east of U.S. 83 early this
afternoon. West of U.S. 83, there is a small amount of forcing,
allowing some drizzle to fall. The shortwave is forecast to be
exiting the CWA to the northeast over the next few hours, taking
with it any lingering rain.

Also this afternoon, a low-level lee low is forming in Colorado.
This is leading to a roughly 30 kts 850 mb LLJ, which is mixing down
to the surface in the form of 20-30 kts gusts. These gusts are
forecast to weaken around sunset, but southeasterly winds will
persist.

The stronger winds and the showers are working to keep fog from
becoming dense this afternoon. Fog is expected to lift a bit more
over the next few hours, but return tonight. As it stands, there is
90% confidence that widespread fog will reduce visibilities down to
1-3 miles again by Sunday morning. There is also 70% confidence that
areas along and west of a line from Tribune, KS to McCook, NE will
see at least patchy dense fog, reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or
less. The threat of more dry, southerly winds is hold back the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. Due to less favorable winds Sunday
night and onward, tonight may be our last night of widespread fog.

Temperatures over the next 18 hours are forecast to change less than
15 degrees for any given location. Highs will be capped in the 50s
to low 60s while lows will only cool into the 40s to mid 50s.

At 500 mb Sunday, there is a broad, but fairly strong, low moving
onto the U.S. west coast as a weak ridge builds in over the Great
Plains. Down at 850 mb, the lee low in Colorado stays pretty
stationary during the day, but overnight it ejects to the northeast.
This will lead to strong south-southeasterly winds Sunday afternoon
and evening. We expect to see sustained winds around 15-20 kts with
gusts of 30-45 kts, the strongest of which look to be along and west
of KS 27. Timing for the strongest winds is forecast to be between
21-06Z, as supported by the HREF and REFS.

We should get a bit of a reprieve from the winds for a few hours
Monday morning. However, if the nocturnal inversion does not set up
or the surface pressure changes can overcome the inversion, these
gusts will persist throughout the early morning hours Monday and
spread east, across the rest of the CWA. There is a 40% chance that
the gusts persist throughout the early morning. Either way, we
should see a ~3 hour weakening in the winds Monday morning ahead of
the cold front from this incoming system.

Monday morning, the 500 mb low driving this incoming system will be
coming over the Rockies and still be pretty broad. As the system
moves over the High Plains throughout the day, guidance is showing
this system remain as a large open trough or two separate lows
acting as a large trough. There is also a hint of a shortwave ridge
near the CWA, which supports the two low theory. Down at 850 mb, by
12Z Monday, the low from the night before will already be in South
Dakota. Around the same time, another 850 mb Colorado lee low could
be forming, reinforcing the cold front that will be entering the CWA
Monday morning. This second 850 mb low will be the primary factor
determining how strong our winds are Monday behind the cold front.

Trailing the cold front we expect strong northwesterly winds. The
closer the southern 850 mb low is to the CWA, the stronger the winds
will be Monday. The favored path of the low, which has 60%
forecaster confidence of occurring, is near the OK panhandle. This
would produce widespread 30-45 kts gusts and isolated gusts up to 50-
55 kts. There is a 30% chance the low`s path shifts north, in which
case widespread 35-55 kts gusts and isolated gusts up to 65 kts
would be possible. In either case, the strongest winds will be
northwest of a line from Tribune, KS to McCook, NE and occur Monday
afternoon and evening, between 18-06Z. Potential for blowing dust is
less than 2% due to weak lapse rates and recent moisture.

Bottom line for the wind, widespread gusts over 50 kts have a 25-30%
chance of occurring; widespread gusts up to 45 kts with isolated
gusts up to 55 kts has a 55% chance of occurring; blowing dust is
not expected to pose a threat.

Regarding precipitation, there is a 20% chance that light rain will
be off and on across the area starting late Sunday morning and
lasting through Monday evening, with a brief break early Monday
morning. The first good chance for rain will be Monday 6-9Z east of
KS 25 as a pre-frontal shortwave trough forms and pushes eastward.
The second main chance will be with the cold front Monday afternoon
as it sweeps across the entire CWA. Both of these precipitation
focuses have a 70% chance of having some embedded storms. There is a
5% chance the storms with the cold front could produce some small
hail and help mix down some stronger winds.

Finally, temperatures. Sunday is forecast to remain in the 60s,
slightly warmer thanks to the stronger southerly flow. Monday can
expect highs to be in the 50s in the northwestern CWA, where the
cold front hits early, and up to 70 in Graham county where sunshine
and southerly winds will be present. Overnight Sunday will remain
fairly stable, likely only cooling into the 50s, but Monday night
will be getting cooler. The persistent cloud cover and northwesterly
winds will be duking it out and will likely cool temperatures into
the 40s, but areas near the Tri-State border may cool into the upper
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Next week starting on Tuesday and through Friday, we are
forecast to be in a revolving upper-level trough and ridge
pattern over the area. On Tuesday, it is expected that the
trough system from the short-term period will slide east,
bringing in a cold front, and putting us into northwesterly flow
aloft as a de-amplifying ridge follows in from the souther
Rockies on Wednesday. Once the ridge completely de-amplifies and
flattens out over us, it would likely put us into zonal flow on
Thursday. After this, a possible additional ridge could form in
to the south and amplify to the north on Friday. With this being
said, there is some marginal spread of uncertainty within the
overall evolution of the pattern. While zonal flow is favored,
GEFS ensemble spread shows some variability of the small trough
on Thursday that could lead into slightly northwesterly flow
before the ridge arrives Friday. There is low confidence (30%)
that upper-level northwesterly flow will occur earlier on
Thursday.

Afternoon temperatures for this long-term period continue to be
fairly consistent with highs forecast to be in the 50s. However
on Wednesday and onward, near freezing morning temperatures are
expected to occur in the Tri-State border area. With the spread
of the overall pattern later in the week, there is low
confidence (20%) that temperatures could drop a few degrees into
below freezing over the entire County Warning Area (CWA) if the
pattern becomes northwesterly. Otherwise, morning lows will
likely be in the 30s and slightly above freezing.

On Tuesday, showers and strong winds are expected to end once
the initial trough system passes by. Showers are likely to exit
out of the area before the mid afternoon hours with winds from
the northwest decreasing from 30 mph to 10 mph. For the rest of
the period, we can expect the winds to be calm and shift a
couple of times with the changing pattern. Clouds should remain
relatively low before possibly building back up on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 447 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For KGLD, IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast to start the TAF
period. Expect ceilings to generally stay around 500-900 ft for
the majority of the period. From 02-17Z, patchy fog will likely
occur again this evening. Visibilities could be reduced to
around 1/2 SM with the most dense fog, but will likely be around
1-2 SM. Winds to start the period will likely be south-
southeasterly and light. Beginning early tomorrow afternoon
winds will likely pick to around 15-20 kts with gust up to 35
kts.

For KMCK, MVFR to IFR conditions are forecast to start the TAF
period. Expect ceilings to generally stay around 600-900 ft for
the majority of the period. From 02-16Z, patchy fog will likely
occur again, reducing visibilities to around 2-4 SM. Winds will
stay light and from the south-southeast for the beginning of
the period. Starting early tomorrow afternoon winds should begin
to pick up to around 15 kts, with gusts up to 35 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...Holdren