Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
109 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Overview: Potent shortwave energy digging southeast through the
Rockies this morning will progress into the Southern Plains this
afternoon into tonight, promoting the development of a vertically
stacked lee cyclone over the Northern Plains this afternoon and
amplifying a broad upper trough over the central US. NW flow aloft
will prevail over the High Plains Mon-Mon night -- on the western
periphery of a full-latitude trough progressing east across the
MS River Valley.

Today-Tonight: With the Tri-State area progged to remain on the
far southwest periphery of the vertically stacked cyclone over the
Northern Plains, expect dry conditions to prevail. Given that the
system will rapidly develop today, a fair amount of uncertainty
persists with regard to the areal extent and magnitude of wind
this afternoon/evening -- which will depend on the depth of the
mixed layer and magnitude of low/mid-level flow on the southwest
periphery of the developing cyclone -- further complicated by
uncertainty in cloud cover/coverage and the possibility of virga
/enhanced downward momentum transport via evap cooling/. 00-06Z
guidance suggests that the best potential for high winds will be
over portions of northeast Colorado, extreme southwest Nebraska,
and extreme northwest Kansas this afternoon and early this
evening, where sustained winds as high as 35 to 45 mph and gusts
as high as 55 to 65 mph will be possible. With this in mind, a
High Wind Warning is in effect from 12-7 pm MDT for Yuma/Kit
Carson counties in Colorado, Dundy county in Nebraska, and
Sherman/Cheyenne counties in Kansas. It is possible that the High
Wind Warning may need to be expanded in time (later into the
evening) and area (further east along the KS/NE border) --
depending on the evolution of the cyclone over the Northern
Plains. The Red Flag Warning will remain in place as- is, with
dangerous fire weather conditions expected mainly south of
Interstate 70 during the afternoon.

Mon-Mon Night: Breezy NW winds will persist through the day on
Monday. All else being equal, high temperatures and minimum RHs
will primarily be a function of cloud cover/coverage -- which
remains uncertain. Regardless of whether or not Red Flag Criteria
will be met -- hazardous fire weather conditions are anticipated
to persist over the majority of the Tri-State area Monday
afternoon. Expect decreasing winds and clearing skies Monday

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

On Tuesday, a strong low pressure system continues to push
further away from the region, nearing the Great Lakes. This
results in northwest flow aloft across the High Plains on the
backside of the trough, with winds lighter than previous days for
the forecast area. Dry weather is anticipated through Wednesday

Flow becomes zonal on Wednesday while another disturbance digs
into the Rockies and a cold front traverses the region. The system
generates rain chances Wednesday afternoon with rain
transitioning to snow overnight into Thursday morning as
temperatures fall. Precipitation comes to an end midday Thursday,
with light snow accumulations possible in eastern Colorado and
little to no accumulation for areas east. Guidance disagrees on
the placement and timing of this disturbance, so will work to
refine details in the coming days.

Dry weather and a warming trend are forecast Friday into
Saturday. The trough moves south/east of the area on Friday as
surface high pressure slides in behind. The next upper trough
progresses from the Rockies to the Northern Plains on Saturday,
sending a cold front south in time for Sunday.

A cooling trend starts the long term, with high temperatures
falling from the 60s on Tuesday to the 40s/low 50s by Thursday.
Temperatures warm thereafter when highs reach the upper 50s/low
60s on Friday and 60s/low 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures range
in the low 20s to low 40s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at the Goodland and McCook terminals. Main
concern will be for breezy conditions this afternoon. Winds will
be northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph increasing
to 55 mph in the afternoon. Tonight winds will relax to around 15
to 25 mph after midnight with still strong gusts 45-50 mph.


KS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for

CO...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ090-091.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.

NE...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ079.



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