Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 050435
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
935 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are forecast for much of the upcoming week
  with near average temperatures today and tomorrow.

- Chances for precipitation return late Wednesday and could
  linger through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

Synoptic Overview: Broad troughing /cyclonic flow/ aloft will
prevail over the western and central CONUS through mid-week.
Meanwhile, an upper level low in the northern Pacific.. centered
~1000 miles west of San Francisco (~41N 141W) at 18Z.. will
steadily track ESE-SE toward the CA coast Tue-Wed, moving ashore
southern CA Wed night.

Today: A ~1005 mb surface low, centered invof Topeka KS at 18Z,
will continue progressing east toward the MS River Valley.
Northerly low-level flow on the western periphery of the
aforementioned low advected a cooler airmass (850 mb temps 2-4C,
~5C colder than 24 hours ago) into the Tri-State area this
morning. Expect highs similar to yesterday.. albeit several
degrees cooler.. ranging from ~50-60F (coolest in Yuma CO,
warmest in Graham/Gove, KS).

Tonight-Tuesday: Shortwave energy presently situated invof the
ID-UT-WY border will progress ENE across central WY (this eve)
and southwest SD (tonight). Guidance suggests that an
evaporatively cooled airmass.. emanating from precipitation
accompanying the aforementioned shortwave energy (over eastern
WY and far western NE).. will surge southward through the Tri-
State area overnight, serving as an effective cold frontal
passage / reinforcing bout of [modest] cold advection. This,
along with increasing upper level cloud cover, will foster
relatively cooler temperatures (compared to today).. with highs
ranging from the mid-upper 40s to mid 50s.. coolest in eastern
CO (western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties).. in closer vicinity
to the Rockies, where upper level cloud cover should be thicker/
more pervasive.

Wed-Wed night: Expect a warming trend in association with
southerly return flow.. as the MSLP-H85 height gradient re-
orients and tightens in response to upstream pressure falls. A
broad mid-latitude cyclone will develop in the lee of the
central/southern Rockies (invof the CO-KS-OK border) late Wed
and Wed night.. as flow aloft backs to the SW in advance of the
aforementioned upper low. Guidance continues to suggest that
low-level /850 mb/ warm advection and frontogenesis on the
northern fringe of the developing cyclone will aid in the
development of elevated convection -- showers, perhaps with
embedded storms -- over portions of northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

The long term begins with potential for more rain and snow over the
area as we end the work week. The Tri-State area will be under SW
flow aloft Thursday as a deep trough moves over the Western CONUS.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure is currently expected to
move east over Southern Kansas and Oklahoma before moving northeast
over Central Kansas. This track keeps the area in the favorable
region for wrap around moisture all day. Precipitation chances up to
60% are possible through the overnight hours on Wednesday to the
afternoon, with chances decreasing to 50% overnight Thursday. A cold
front moving through the area will bring potential for weak
thunderstorms throughout the day for those generally east of the
Highway 25 corridor while the remainder of the area is expected to
see rain. Any storms that occur in the morning hours are expected to
be elevated. The morning to early afternoon does look to be the best
window for storms given the weak instability seen in soundings. high
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. With
overnight lows falling below freezing into the 20s to lower 30s
thanks to the frontal passage, a conversion to snow is anticipated
from west to east Thursday night through Friday night. It is
possible with low to medium confidence (30-50%) that those east of
Highway 25 may only see rain with this system. This snow looks to
have a lower than average snow to liquid ratio for our area at ~8-
11:1, favoring more of a wet snow. Light snow accumulations
currently forecast to range from a dusting to less than 1" are
possible. Precipitation chances should taper off from north to south
overnight Friday. Temperatures Friday are expected to be in the 40s
for highs and the upper teens to lower 20s overnight.

On Saturday, the upper trough axis will swing across the Great
Plains while an upper ridge moves over the Four Corners region. As
the surface high moves over the Rockies, we see a return of above
normal temperatures and dry conditions for the remainder of the
period. Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be in the lower 50s
with overnight lows in the mid 20s. Sunday is even warmer with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows will be in the upper
20s to lower 30s. Monday is currently forecast to have highs in the
60s with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 932 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period for both KGLD and
KMCK. Winds will remain light and variable throughout the day as
a high pressure system moves over the region. Winds will become
southeasterly and a bit stronger around 20Z for KGLD and 0Z for
KMCK. Safe flying!

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...CA


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