Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 072146
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2023

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
an upper air low over the central AZ/NM border with a ridge over the
Pacific Northwest. Current satellite imagery and surface
observations display sunny skies and dry conditions across the
region with some snow cover still seen in a good portion of the CWA.
Forecast guidance show the low advancing northeastward into NM with
the ridge moving over the Northern Plains. On Wednesday, models
depict the upper air low moving over the CWA by the afternoon and
then opening up into a wave as another trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest. During the evening hours, this trough moves eastward into
the Northern Plains with the wave being absorbed into the trough
overnight.

At the surface, dry conditions are expected for the remainder of
Tuesday for the CWA with a localized surface high expected to move
into the CWA causing light winds as well. On Wednesday, models show
a surface low moving from eastern TX up through central MO
throughout the day. With this system, a cold front looks to move
through the region bringing chances for a wintry mix to the
western portion of the CWA that will transition to all light snow
showers overnight. Snowfall accumulation for late Thursday expect
to be a few tenths at most. Behind the cold front, winds become
north-northwesterly and start to speed up overnight particularly
in the western half of the CWA with soundings showing potential
wind gusts up to around 40 kts. Will continue to monitor this as
winds look to increase more beyond the short term period.

The Tri-State Area looks to see overnight lows in the upper teens to
the lower 20s. Daytime highs on Thursday expect to be in the lower
40s to lower 50s followed by overnight lows in the upper teens to
upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2023

Main focus for this part of the forecast is the high wind potential
Thursday behind the cold front.

An upper level low will move south across the Plains Thursday behind
the cold front from Wednesday night.  Ahead of the upper level short
wave trough northwest winds will increase.  Data is indicating the
low level winds will be strongest during the morning, then decline
through the afternoon as the trough shifts into the Southern Plains.
The peak wind gusts look to be around the 800mb level, which is
close to the top of the mixed layer.  Soundings in East Central CO
show the gusts of 60 MPH or higher being in the top half of the
mixed layer.  One complicating factor is the uniform cloud deck
expected during the day.  However lapse rates are rather steep, so
am thinking there should be some mixing occurring.  Another
complicating factor is the influence the snow field over Northern CO
will have on the winds.  The CAA off the snow could cause an
inversion to form just above the surface which could limit the wind
gust potential.  There is also the unknown influence of how much
snow will melt today and tomorrow ahead of the high winds.

Looking at the potential for wind gusts of 60+ MPH, models have high
likelihood of these winds occurring over East Central CO, extending
into West Central KS. Given the above considerations, was initially
skeptical of issuing a watch. However the model potential for high
winds was enough reason to atleast issue a watch.

Regarding wind potential, the strongest gusts look to occur over the
western part of the forecast area.  The strongest gusts look to
occur during the mid to late morning, maybe into the early
afternoon, before the winds begin to trend down.

There will be some weak lift occurring during the day along with
steep lapse rates.  Am thinking the steep lapse rates will be the
main contributor to snow showers forming.  Given the high winds, we
could see snow squalls occur.

Blowing dust may occur, however the main threat area looks to be
more over Southeast CO.  Over East Central CO the surface winds may
not be quite strong enough, and the lapse rates may not be steep
enough to allow the dust to go very far vertically.

Beyond Thursday a short wave ridge moves over the forecast area for
the weekend.  This will allow warmer weather into the forecast area.

Early next week another upper level moves across the Southern
Plains. The GFS continues to move the trough well south of the
forecast area, while the ECMWF has it further north over the TX/OK
Panhandles.  This setup looks like a split flow pattern, which is
usually not favorable for precipitation for the forecast area.  As
such am skeptical of the current forecast for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1025 AM MST Tue Feb 7 2023

Both KGLD and KMCK expect VFR conditions during the 18Z TAF period
starting with northwesterly winds around 10 kts that turn variable
around 5 kts by 23Z. Westerly winds around 7 kts then are
expected to begin around 15-16Z at both of the terminals.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ027-041.

CO...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...076


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