Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 041121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
421 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021

Today... Quiet conditions are anticipated as the Tri-State area sits
under NW flow aloft. The lee surface trough will broaden over the
area as a mid-level trough moves over the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains through the overnight hours. With the lee trough`s
expansion east, southerly winds over the area will increase to 10-20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible mainly along/west of Highway
27. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler with highs in the low
50s to low 60s. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Sunday... Upper level shortwave disturbances will move across the
High Plains, pushing the mid level low across North Dakota and the
lee trough away from the Front Range. A cold front will move south
across the Tri-State area during the day, causing the winds to shift
from the south to north. Wind speeds are expected to increase to 20-
30 mph sustained with gusts up to 45 mph during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures are currently expected to climb into the upper 50s to
mid 60s, with the warmest values in our southern counties. If the
front moves through faster than expected, temperatures may be cooler
than currently forecast. With the strong winds and dry conditions,
near critical fire weather conditions are expected mainly along and
south of a Wray to Goodland to Russell Springs line where RH values
are expected to drop into the mid teens to around 20%. Looking at
the blowing dust parameters determined from office research, there
is potential for blowing dust along the Nebraska border around
noon and into the early afternoon. 0-2 km lapse rates are around
8.5 C/km while the 2-2.5 km lapse rates are ranging from ~6 to 8.5
C/km in the area of concern. Low level winds speeds are also
borderline. The threat for high winds and blowing dust will need
to be monitored closely over the next 24 hours. An area of high
pressure at the surface is expected to move south over the area
Sunday evening as cold air also advects into the Central High
Plains. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the teens across
majority of the area Sunday night with wind chills possibly
dropping into the single digits by sunrise Monday morning.

Monday... The High Plains is expected to return to northwest flow
aloft during the day due to high pressure sitting off the West
Coast. The surface high is expected to move south across the area
during the day, keeping the area dry. During the late afternoon to
evening hours, the upper flow is forecast to become zonal as another
trough moves across the Intermountain West and a lee trough moves
over Colorado. Cloud cover is expected to increase throughout the
day, limiting our warming potential. High temperatures are forecast
to be in the mid to upper 30s with overnight lows in the upper teens
to mid 20s. Southerly winds could gust up to 35 mph during the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021

A rather stark transition to a progressive and highly amplified
synoptic pattern is anticipated over the CONUS in this period..
the climax of which may be a powerful/expansive mid-latitude
cyclone late next week (Thu-Sat). In such a volatile synoptic
pattern, considerable day-to-day variation in sensible weather
conditions can be expected.. along with a potential for
significant/extreme weather.. especially late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 411 AM MST Sat Dec 4 2021

VFR conditions are anticipated through the 12Z TAF period. An area
of stratus and possibly fog is expanding southwest across southern
Nebraska and may move within the vicinity of KMCK from 15-17Z.
Confidence is not high at this time, so any mention has been left
out of the TAF for now. Future amendments will be issued as
needed. Southerly winds are expected 06Z Sunday with light to 10
kts speeds increasing to 10-15 kts this afternoon with gusts up to
25 kts possible over both terminals through the late afternoon
hours. Winds will shift to the southwest after 06Z and continue
towards the west through the end of the period with speeds
remaining at 10-15 kts. KMCK could experience some LLWS from 05Z
through the end of the period from the northwest at ~35 kts.




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