Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260352
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
952 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Tonight-Saturday night...zonal flow aloft will be over the area in
between high pressure to our west and southwest and low pressure
near North Dakota. At the surface light and variable winds tonight
shift to the northwest and north Saturday afternoon with some gusts
to perhaps 25 mph at times along and north of the KS/NE border. For
Saturday night a cold front moves through with northeast winds 5 to
15 mph, highest along and south of the interstate. No precipitation
is expected.

Sunday...much cooler temperatures are expected behind Saturday
nights cold front. 850mb temperatures drop about 24F to 27F
supporting a host of better performing bias corrected grids yielding
high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. It will be breezy to
windy in the late morning through afternoon hours with gusts up to
around 50 mph. Highest winds are expected along the CO/KS border.
Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 30s to around 40
in far eastern Colorado, upper 30s to mid 40s east of the CO/KS
border.

Regarding precipitation chances, it appears that sufficient moisture
in the 700-500mb layer moves into the northwest half of the area
during the afternoon and overnight hours to produce a chance of
light rain showers.

The 12Z NAM and to a slightly lesser extent the 12Z GFS are
suggesting a little less confidence in an organized threat for
blowing dust generally in the late afternoon hours along and south
of Interstate 70. The best chance albeit small at this time would be
across Cheyenne county KS, Wallace and Greeley counties in KS. Will
refrain from mentioning blowing dust in the forecast at this time
given its 2 days out but if the guidance continues to suggest the
threat tomorrow I`ll add some blowing dust to the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Monday through Tuesday...the upper level pattern features a high
amplitude ridge axis over the western United States with low
pressure over the central and eastern parts of the country. Breezy
northwest winds are expected during the day Monday with slightly
less wind Tuesday. 850mb temperatures Monday fall another 7F to 10F
compared to Sunday supporting highs in the low to mid 60s. On
Tuesday the influence of the western ridge axis moves a little
further east bringing warmer air to the area. Currently have high
temperatures in the mid 70s. Low temperatures Monday night in the
mid 30s to around 40 with low to upper 40s Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday...the upper level pattern continues to
suggest a strong upper ridge across the western United States with
low pressure to our east. No precipitation is expected. High
temperatures Wednesday and Friday in the low 70s with mid 60s
Thursday. Low temperatures Wednesday night in the mid 30s to low 40s
with mid to upper 30s Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Reduced visibilities associated with smoke/haze (emanating from
renewed wildfires along the CO Front Range) are possible at the
MCK terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule through the TAF
period. Light/variable winds will prevail overnight, becoming
WNW at 7-12 knots a few hours after sunrise (~15Z), backing to
the west and increasing to 15-20 knots by noon. Gusts up to 25-30
knots are possible during the afternoon (19-23Z), mainly at the
MCK terminal. Winds will abruptly shift to the north at 15-25
knots near the end of the TAF period (00-03Z Sunday).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Here are the record high temperatures for 9/25 and 9/26:

                  Friday (9/25)       Saturday (9/26)

Goodland KS          97F/1998              90F/2008+

McCook NE           103F/1998              96F/1919

Burlington CO        95F/1998              91F/2008

Hill City KS        102F/1998              96F/2013

Tribune KS           96F/2005              99F/1998

Yuma CO              95F/1998              91F/1999

Colby KS             96F/1966             100F/1998

A (+) for Goodland KS on 9/26 denotes multiple years for the record.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...JN


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