982
FXUS63 KGLD 200853
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
253 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooling trend continues today!

- Patchy fog is possible this morning, potentially returning
  Tuesday morning.

- Scattered showers possible throughout the day before strong to
  severe storms this afternoon and evening. All hazards are
  possible, so be prepared to act!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Early this morning, there is a 10% chance flash flooding and 50-60
MPH come out of the storms moving into the CWA from the north. Most
likely areas impacted will be areas along and northeast of a line
from Max, NE to Hill City, KS. This threat looks to gradually wane
after 9Z, but lingering showers and weak storms have a 25% chance of
persist into the midday.

Also this morning, there is a 50% chance for widespread 2-5 mile
visibility in fog with patches of dense fog. This would likely start
forming around 9Z and may last until 15-18Z. Widespread stratus is
also expected. Lows are expected to be in the 50s to low 60s this
morning.

The morning fog and northeasterly flow will work to keep
temperatures fairly cool today, likely topping out around 70 for
most of the CWA. The upper level low will be coming out of the
Northern Rockies into the the Northern Plains this afternoon and
evening, potentially providing forcing for another round of storms.
As it stands, there is only about 60% forecaster confidence that
storms will form. Reason being is that the low may not be as strong
as some models are showing, providing zonal flow without a jet
streak.

However, if storms are able to form, we can expect 1-4 supercells to
form to the west of the CWA and proceed southeast at 20-50 kts.
These storms will be in a well sheared environment with marginal
CAPE. This does pose a threat for all hazards being possible,
including a limited tornado risk. The tornado risk would peak around
20-0Z. Eastern Colorado has the highest potential risk of a tornado
today. Wind gusts of 60-70 MPH and 1-2 inch hail are the more likely
threats from these storms, with a 10-15% chance of occurring. The
severe threat looks to conclude by 6Z. Also, there is a localized
blowing dust potential in Cheyenne county Colorado, where lapse
rates may get steep enough with dry conditions to support lofting
dust. This risk would end before 2Z.

Once again, Kit Carson county will be at risk for some flash
flooding Sunday afternoon and evening. The recent rains will make
them more susceptible to flooding than other locations across
the CWA. Storms would need to be a right or left mover to really
pose a risk of flooding, as their movement speeds are around 20
kts. The main flooding threat looks to cease around 6Z, too.

Fog is unlikely Sunday night into Monday morning, but stratus will
likely return. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 50s.

Monday, temperatures will remain cool, in the low to mid 70s, as the
lows over the northern CONUS move on east and we remain under zonal
flow until the evening. During the evening hours, a ridge is
expected to start moving into the region. This leads to a 20-30%
chance of showers and weak storms in the southwestern CWA, but most
of the area will remain convection free.

Cool temperatures persist into Monday night and Tuesday morning,
where lows will cool to near 50. A surface high near the Great Lakes
will work to provide easterly flow and moisture return. This
advection has a 30% chance of providing patchy to dense fog across
the area Tuesday morning. This fog may persist until the mid to late
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Beginning Wednesday, a weak ridge should begin to develop over the
central plains, slowly propagating to the east through Saturday.
Ensemble guidance is in general agreement on the ridge axis
positioning to the east of our county warning area (CWA) which
should give us upper level flow from the southwest as we head into
next weekend. Higher confidence exists at the moment of this ridge
weakening through Saturday, bringing zonal westerly flow aloft to
the region during the weekend. A weak upper-level jet streak should
be in place Wednesday, ushering in breezy conditions to the area.
Confidence is medium that this feature will move out of the area by
Thursday. At the surface, weak surface low pressure is forecasted to
influence the area through Friday. Simultaneously, a frontal
boundary moves through the area Wednesday which should give us
boosted chances for showers and thunderstorms. Chances for
precipitation the rest of the week will be dependent on shortwave
passages through the ridging system.

With respect to Probability of Precipitation (PoPs), forecast
guidance displays 25-40% Wednesday during frontal passage. Eastern
portions of the CWA may see up to 50% PoPs overnight into Thursday
morning as the front moves off to the east. Heading towards the
weekend, 15-30% PoPs for Thursday as well as 25-45% Friday are
highlighted by guidance. 15-30% is the current probability range
Saturday as the overall pattern becomes zonal. Instability and bulk
shear are forecasted to be low during this long-term period, making
any chance for precipitation limited to showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures are expected to be near the seasonal average for
this time of the year for the Tri-State area heading into the
weekend. Highs in the upper 70/low 80s are anticipated for the
entire four-day forecast period. Surface winds should start off
breezy on Wednesday at around 15-25 mph in the eastern and central
parts of our CWA and 25-30 mph in eastern Colorado, gusting up to 40
mph. Winds should die down to a general 5-10 mph Thursday
accompanied by gusts up to 15 mph. Finally winds likely bounce back
a bit to 10-20 mph Friday and Saturday with gusting up to 25
mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

9Z Update. METAR issues fixed, products will be updated as
normal.

Stratus, storms, and fog will lead to MVFR then LIFR,
potentially minimum, categories for both KGLD and KMCK.
Conditions are expected to gradually improve in the late
morning, but more storms and stratus conditions look to return
Sunday evening and night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...CA