246
FXUS63 KGLD 091745
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Continued dry forecast through the week until next weekend.

-Potential for lows close to 10 degrees over McCook to Hill City
area tonight.

-Gradual warming temperature trend through the work week.

-Low relative humidity Tuesday and Friday with breezy winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Latest upper air analysis and satellite imagery show the closed low
continuing to slowly move east of the Tri-State Area.  Water vapor
imagery showed a large area of dry air/subsidence over the forecast
area on the backside of the closed low despite a narrow corridor of
low clouds extending from the north.  Further north clouds and
higher water vapor content were seen over the northern Great Basin.
This was rounding the next ridge to move in from the west. At the
surface winds were from the north.

For the rest of today light to breezy winds will occur into the
early afternoon, with light winds prevailing after that.

Tonight continue to see the potential for lows to fall close to 10
degrees over the eastern part of the forecast area.  Dew points
continue be lowest over the eastern part of the forecast area as
drier air from the northeast moves in and meets the higher dew
points coming up from the south.  Where the surface high pressure is
will be where the coldest temperatures will occur due to the
favorable setup for radiational cooling there. The probability
for dew points falling below 10 degrees over the McCook to Hill
City area is 60-70%. Probabilities fall to 40% for dew points
falling below 7 degrees. The 10th percentile for lows is 9-12
degrees for that part of the forecast area tonight. This seems
like a reasonable forecast given the potential for dew points to
be 10 degrees or less. The coldest temperatures will be in the
river valley. Elsewhere lows will be similar to last night.

Monday there looks to be a north-south corridor of breezy low level
winds moving east across the forecast area during the morning.
However the cool morning temperatures should prevent the breezy low
level winds from mixing down to the ground.  By the time
temperatures warm enough to mix the winds down, those winds are east
of Graham/Norton counties.

Tuesday morning an upper level short wave trough moves through the
forecast area during the morning.  However the large dew point
depressions will prevent even clouds from forming as the short wave
trough moves through.  At the surface a trough will accompany the
feature through.  Behind the trough winds will be from the
northwest.  Around noon the winds may become breezy, gusting 20-25
MPH.  Toward mid afternoon the breezy winds move east of the Tri-
State Area. Maximum gusts for the afternoon could reach 30-35
MPH. However there is only a 20-30% chance for wind gusts
exceeding 25 MPH during the afternoon. As such, there may be an
hour before 3 PM when the breezy northwest winds combine with
the low relative humidity to be of concern before relative
humidity increases and the winds begin to slacken. Based on
similar past events with winds declining through the afternoon,
confidence is 30% for critical fire weather conditions
occurring during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to slowly move toward and over
the forecast area during this part of the forecast.  Thursday the
winds look to be similar to Tuesday, breezy but too low for meeting
a fire weather concern.  Friday the winds will stronger as the upper
level trough approaches.  If relative humidity values fall further,
this day will be a concern for fire weather conditions.
Additionally, suspect the forecast winds for the afternoon
should increase in the coming days.

Looking at the weekend, the latest GFS model run is now mirroring
the ECMWF, which has had a closed low moving south of the forecast
area.  The GFS track has the closed low in a favorable position to
bring precipitation to most of the forecast area, while the ECMWF is
slightly further south and about a day slower.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Satellite imagery shows
the cloud cover ending. This will allow winds to strengthen due
to the lack of cloud cover.  Winds will become light before 0z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Briefly critical fire weather conditions are currently forecast
Tuesday mainly across eastern Colorado but may sneak into northwest
Kansas. A bit of a tricky fire weather forecast may be in store as
winds are forecast to be the breeziest during the morning hours as
an 850mb jet weakens. Humidity during this time is forecast to be
around 20-30% but will drop as temperatures warm into the low 70s.
As the afternoon goes on the the low level flow is forecast to
weaken but the 700mb flow increases to around 30-35 knots resulting
in the potential for wind gusts as mixing becomes deep around 5000-
6000 feet. This leads me to believe that off and on wind gusts
of 25-35 mph remain possible through the afternoon with
sustained winds remaining around 10 mph. The better potential
for the deep mixing is across Kit Carson and Yuma counties. With
the more consistent breezier winds occurring before humidity
falls and the overall potential off and on nature of the
stronger wind gusts confidence is to low to warrant a Fire
Weather Watch at this time. Use extra caution with any sparks on
Tuesday as 10 hour fuel moisture approaches 10% suggesting dry
duels in place which correlates very well with the lack of
precipitation that has occurred over the past several weeks.
Confidence in one hour of critical fire weather conditions is
currently around 50-60% but only 15-20% for 3 or more hours.
There is potential that with the deeper mixing that warmer and
drier conditions may mix down leading to a bit more of a
widespread briefly critical conditions but confidence in that
is only around 5% at this time as well.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg