305
FXUS63 KGLD 081109
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
409 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average highs expected into early next week. Near record
  highs possible.

- A series of weak shortwaves move through the region next week
  and may bring precipitation. Low confidence on timing and
  accumulations at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1215 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Mild and dry conditions will continue through the short term
period. Northwest flow today downstream of a shortwave ridge
moving through the Intermountain West will transition to zonal
flow on Monday with a jet max moving through Nebraska. High
temperatures today will be around 70 and high temperatures on
Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. Record temperatures both
days are generally in the mid to upper 70s, so can`t completely
rule out a few record highs on Monday. Afternoon relative
humidity minimums will be in the teens both days resulting in
elevated fire weather conditions. However, wind speeds appear
to be lacking for critical conditions. Today, there may be a
brief period from mid to late morning near the Kansas/Colorado
border area where winds gust to 20-25kts, but winds diminish in
the afternoon at the time of peak heating/lowest humidity. On
Monday, strongest winds will be just north of the area where the
upper jet is located. It is possible that gusts of 20-25kts
will develop further south in the afternoon along the Highway 34
corridor from northern Yuma County through southwest Nebraska,
but confidence is low in meeting criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

An upper level trough and attendant upper level jet streak at its
base look to be in the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Region Tuesday
morning. A surface high pressure system across the Northern United
States and Southern Canada is forecast to create northerly flow
across the forecast area through most of the afternoon hours. Cooler
temperatures compared to the past week are forecast, with highs in
the low to mid-50s across the area, and a 40-50% chance of sub-50
temperatures primarily for portions of Eastern Colorado and far
Southwest Nebraska.

Ridging looks to set up over the forecast area by Wednesday morning,
as a trough slowly digging into the West Coast produces
southwesterly upper level flow across the Desert Southwest.
Southerly surface flow ahead of an embedded shortwave could allow
for a little higher temperatures Wednesday afternoon, though
cloud cover in association with a winter lee cyclone could
limit how warm temperatures are allowed to reach. Current
forecast highs are in the mid-50s to low-60s.

This shortwave, in addition to the digging trough across the West
Coast, will have the opportunity to impact the forecast area between
Thursday and Saturday. A cold front in association with the lee
cyclone looks to pass through the area between the early morning
hours and afternoon on Thursday. Forecast highs are currently in the
mid to upper-50s. Additionally, NBM guidance suggests that light
rain and snow are possible with this system through the night hours
on Thursday. Measurable accumulations are currently not anticipated
as this system moves through.

The second system is forecast to come through sometime between
Friday morning and Saturday afternoon. Light rain and snow are
possible with this system as well, though about 15% of GEFS and
ECMWF Ensemble members show the possibility of accumulation 2 inches
or higher somewhere in the CWA. High temperatures are currently
forecast in the 50s both days, though lower temperatures are
possible if the snowy scenario occurs. Upon passage of this system,
upper level ridging appears to be favored, which may allow warmer
temperatures going into Sunday and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 408 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Surface winds will be light with occasional high clouds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK/Davis
AVIATION...024