396
FXUS63 KGLD 050520
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1020 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for rain in far southern portions of the area this
  evening and overnight, mainly in Greeley/Wichita counties.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Through Tonight: An upper level low and accompanying surface
low currently in vicinity of Salt Lake City (ref 19Z Pot Vort on
SPC Mesoanalysis) will track ESE across southern CO (this
evening) and the TX Panhandle (Thursday morning). Low-level /850
mb/ warm advection and frontogenesis on the northeast periphery
of the eastward advancing surface low and DPVA associated with
the progressive upper low will foster the development of
elevated convection over southeast CO this evening and southwest
KS early Thu morning, when/where ~250 J/kg MUCAPE will be
present. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent
runs of high resolution guidance continue to suggest that rain
will be confined along/south of Hwy 40 (mainly Greeley/Wichita
counties) and that heavy rain will largely, if not entirely, be
confined south of the NWS Goodland county warning area. Expect
overnight (Thu morning) lows ranging from the lower 30`s to
lower 40`s, warmest along/south of Hwy 40 where cloud cover is
most likely to mitigate radiational cooling and increasing low-
level moisture with southern extent is expected to maintain
surface wetbulb temperatures in the upper 30`s to lower 40`s.

Thu-Thu night: A west-to-east clearing trend will occur during
the late morning and early afternoon as the aforementioned upper
wave and accompanying surface low progress further downstream /
ESE into Oklahoma and an upper level ridge over the Rockies
builds eastward over the Central and Northern Plains. An ill-
defined MSLP to 850 mb height gradient will maintain light winds
across the entire Tri-State area. Expect daytime highs in the
mid 50`s. Mostly clear skies, light winds and a relatively dry
airmass will foster seasonably chilly overnight (Fri morning)
lows in the upper 20`s to lower 30`s, coldest in northeast CO.

Fri-Fri night: Guidance indicates a transition to a weak low-
level southerly return flow regime in this period as the
aforementioned ridge progresses east toward the Mississippi
River Valley and an elongated, SW-to-NE oriented shear axis
progresses east across the 4-Corners and central-southern
Rockies. Guidance suggests that thick upper level cloud cover
will modulate temperatures / dampen the diurnal temperature
range, leading to daytime highs in the lower to mid 50`s and
overnight (Sat morning) lows in the 30`s. No precipitation is
expected in this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Model guidance continues to show signs of a small upper-level
ridge system exiting the Great Plains this weekend. Behind this
ridge, a mini-trough enters the region, which guidance also
shows is likely to be positively tilted. Thus, 300-500 mb flow
is likely to be meridional through Sunday. North to northeast
flow aloft should dominate the weekend until another, much
larger, ridging system starts to build throughout the County
Warning Area (CWA) on Monday. Ensembles mostly agree on a
transition to zonal westerly flow Monday as the ridge axis
passes through the region. Thereafter, southwesterlies are
expected as the ridge propagates eastward into the Missouri and
Mississippi river valleys. At the surface, high pressure
prevails through Monday. There is medium confidence on a frontal
passage Tuesday, but nothing is expected to come of it other
than a windshift.

Guidance foresees a lack of any significant weather through
this long-term forecast period as dry air takes control.
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) currently stand at 5% or
less for the entire CWA throughout the weekend and beginning of
next week. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s as well as Relative
Humidities (RHs) in the 30-50% range signal dry air not only
aloft but at the surface as well. Cooler than normal
temperatures present initially as highs in the 50s are expected
everywhere in the Tri-State area through Saturday. Ensembles
then project a bit of a warming trend with this ridging pattern
as highs in the 60s are more likely heading into next week.
Overnight lows are also forecast to be colder earlier in this
four- day period, with around freezing to below freezing lows
Saturday/Sunday. Slightly warmer low temperatures are expected
Monday and Tuesday mornings as upper 30s to low 40s are
projected. Fire weather concerns remain very low as RH values
mostly stay above 25% and surface winds are forecasted to be on
the weaker side (5-15 mph gusting up to 20 mph).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions continue to be expected at both KGLD and KMCK through
the duration of the TAF period. The only concern is a weak low level
jet producing wind shear at both terminals. Wind shear is expected
to last through around 13Z at KGLD, and 15Z at KMCK. Otherwise,
winds will remain primarily weak and out of the northwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...Davis