957
FXUS63 KGLD 261608
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
908 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather and near normal temps around Thanksgiving.

- Strong N winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage Fri night into Sat, strongest (30-40 G 55 mph)
  Sat morning. A few snow showers may accompany the frontal
  passage early Sat morning (prior to sunrise).

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

For today, the area is forecast to remain under northwest flow
aloft. With the surface high pressure still over the area, this
should lead to little change in temperatures with highs in the
mid to upper 40s instead of the lower 40s. The day is forecast
to start partly cloudy, but see cloud cover increase as mid
level moisture around 700-400mb moves through the area in the
flow. As this moisture moves through, virga or maybe even some
sprinkles may form with dry air near the surface prohibiting
measurable precipitation. Winds should generally be light below
10 mph, except for counties along the Colorado border which may
be close enough to a surface low along the Front Range to have a
slightly stronger pressure gradient and winds around 15 mph.

This evening and tonight, the mid-level moisture is forecast to
move off to the east through the night. As it does so, there is
the chance that some lower level moisture also moves in from
the northwest and provides brief chances for showers. Otherwise,
sprinkles and flurries will remain possible. There should be
some breaks in the clouds that allow temperatures to cool to
near 20 with light winds at the surface.

Thanksgiving remains forecast to be an average fall day as we
remain under northwest flow aloft with a weak pressure gradient
at the surface. Temperatures should be able to warm to around 50
before more cloud cover and chances for virga/sprinkles return
later in the day as more mid-level moisture moves through. Winds
should vary in direction with speeds around 5 to 10 mph.

Thanksgiving night, mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are forecast
with mid and high level moisture forecast to stream over the
area. Winds are forecast to strengthen to around 10 mph from the
south/southeast as lower pressure begins to develop and deepen
along the Front Range. This should also bring in some lower
level moisture as the night goes on, allowing for a chance of
some fog. That being said, if the higher level cloud cover does
develop, fog may not form at all as the area remains insulated
and temperatures don`t reach the dewpoints.

Friday, a trough is forecast to move through the Northwest
United States towards the area. As it does so, the low pressure
along the Front Range is forecast to deepen and spread further
east. This will likely lead to a scenario where the western half
of the area sees winds around 10 mph and clearer skies
underneath the center of the low. The eastern half of the area
conversely may have lingering cloud cover or fog with the
southerly moisture advection. Winds would also be a bit stronger
around 15-20 mph with the stronger pressure gradient. Highs are
forecast to be in the 50s across the area, though some 40s in
the east is possible depending on how thick the cloud cover is.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday night, a 500 mb trough will be digging south over the
Northern Rockies with a corresponding 850 mb low coming out of
the Northern Rockies. Guidance continues to show the low and
associated cold front entering the northwestern CWA around 3-6Z
Saturday and over 4 to 6 hours clearing the CWA. Looking at
cross-sections, Equivalent Potential Temperatures and lapse
rates show brief pockets instability and fairly widespread
conditional instabilty. Additionally, 1-12 microbars of forcing
and a mostly saturated column are expected. There does appear to
still be some dry air intrusion around 700 mb, but this signal
looks much weaker now than it did 24 hours ago. Temperatures
will likely have already cooled to below freezing before the
cold front hits, and will drop into the uppers teens to low 20s
by morning. Gusty winds look likely with and behind the front,
but how fast is still in question. Before sunrise, gusts ranging
from 20-30 kts are likely, but gusts up to 45 kts are possible.

To boil it down, snow is expected early Saturday morning as a
quick moving cold front sweeps through the area. The gusty winds
will likely lead to blowing snow. With the instability, there
is potential for a fast moving convective snow squall. Either
the blowing snow or snow squall would lead to a rapid reduction
in visibility, making travel hazardous. Confidence in visibility
reduction to under 3 miles in this system is about 30%.
Thankfully, snow accumulation is expected to remain less than an
inch. With the ground temperature being so warm, most of the
snowfall is expected to melt within a few hours of falling.

Saturday`s temperatures will be kept in the 30s between the
northerly winds and cloud cover. While there could be lingering
flurries during the day Saturday through Sunday, a lull in
precipitation is expected before the next system. The more
concerning parameter is the winds. The 850 mb LLJ from the north
is forecast to be roaring around 35-45 kts. There is a 50%
chance these winds will mix down to the surface Saturday midday.
What lowers confidence in 40+ kts mixing to the surface include
the ~20% potential of too shallow of lapse rates, and the ~30%
chance the LLJ jet will set up to the east of the CWA. If the
stronger gusts are able to reach the surface, there is a 10%
chance 50-55 kts gusts mix down. The strongest wind gusts are
expected to favor the eastern CWA and weaken in the late
afternoon.

Sunday night, a heavily tilted 500 mb shortwave ridge and an
850 mb high are expected to move into, if not through, the CWA.
During this time, a lull in the precipitation is very likely and
winds will weaken. Temperatures will cool to around 10 degrees
and there is a 5% chance patchy freezing fog will form.

Throughout the day Sunday, the 850 mb high will move east of
the CWA and will be pushing moisture back into the area. The
next 500 mb trough will start impacting the CWA later in the
day. Guidance is in even less agreement as to what Sunday and
Sunday night will hold vs 24 hours, but there is a 30% chance of
precipitation for most of this time. The GFS and CMC-NH are
showing a well saturated column through Sunday night with mild
to moderate forcing, which would give the area some snow, likely
less than 2 inches. The ECMWF is showing us getting dry-slotted
and prevents majority of this round of precipitation. The one
things models and ensembles are agreeing on is that there is
less than a 10% chance of the area receiving more than 3 inches
of snow Sunday through Monday morning. NBM/NDFD QPF is basically
0, which is not representative of the expected precipitation
amounts.

The cold temperatures will also become a hazard. Sunday`s
temperatures look to remain below freezing. Low temperatures are
forecast to drop to around 10F, again. While winds will not be
overly strong during the coldest times, wind chills are expected
to drop around and below zero Sunday and Monday mornings with
Saturday and Tuesday mornings cooling into the single digits.

There is a 30% chance the heaviest snowfall will be early
Monday morning and continue into the morning commute. The NBM is
barely showing this in the NDFD PoPs grids. However, the GFS,
ECMWF, and CMC-NH all show a moderately moist column while the
the 500 mb trough axis passes through the area, around 18Z
Monday. What would prevent precipitation occurring midday Monday
would be if dry, northerly air intrudes and we lose the
moisture. This would keep temperatures around, if not below,
freezing Monday, instead of the mid to upper 30s the NBM/NDFD
are showing.

Precipitation is expected to cease by 6Z Tuesday and a weak
ridge will start building in. Overnight lows Monday night look
to be in the low teens. During the day Tuesday, temperatures
will start warming again and it should be a few days before our
next system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 905 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with
ceilings confined to upper level cloud cover (at or above
~10,000 ft AGL). Light southerly winds will modestly increase to
10-15 knots during the late morning to early afternoon. Winds
will weaken and become variable shortly before sunset and remain
light/variable through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Scattered
cirrus (at/above 18,000 ft AGL) will give way to broken mid-
level ceilings (~5,000 to 10,000 ft AGL) late this aft and eve,
mainly ~23-04Z when virga and/or a few flurries are possible.
Light and predominantly variable winds will prevail throughout
the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent