151
FXUS63 KGLD 052013
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
213 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog and patchy dense fog potential through the morning and
  possibly again tonight.

- Cooler temperatures continue today.

- Chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday morning, and again
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning. An isolated instance or
  two of large hail possible into the morning and again
  Wednesday night. Severe chances are very low however.

- Warming back towards the 100s over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Upper ridge centered over Utah will be the dominant upper
feature through the short term. While it does amplify somewhat,
its orientation is such that there will be a slight northwest
flow over the central plains. This will leave the door open to
disturbances rotating around the ridge and low thunderstorm
chances.

For tonight, convection will be tied to the low level jet. A 30
kt LLJ develops in southwest Kansas this evening as well as a
convergence zone at 700 mb which lifts north into areas south of
Interstate 70 in Kansas and Colorado. CAMs develop elevated
convection south of Highway 40 by around 03z which moves east
through about 09z before dissipating or moving out of the area
by 12z. This is the same area that received rainfall last night
in a similar situation. Morning precipitation reports from
COCORAHS were fairly light, generally less than a quarter of an
inch, through Scott City did report near 1". For tonight, CAMs
show spotty amounts of up to 0.50", so not expecting any
flooding concerns. CAMs still showing up to 1500 j/kg of MUCAPE
in a narrow band where the convection develops, as well as 50
kts of 0-6 km shear, so cannot completely rule out pea to
perhaps quarter size hail if a stronger updraft develops.
However, probability of severe weather remains low. Areas of fog
will develop overnight and persist into Thursday morning. Models
suggest that it may be fairly widespread and dense at times.

After morning fog and clouds burn off, Thursday afternoon will
be mostly sunny and warmer with highs in the lower 90s. CAMs
have gone dry despite the presence of moderate instability. This
can probably be attributed to slight height rises as the ridge
begins to strengthen and the absence of a low level jet Thursday
night.

On Friday, despite the upper ridge continuing to strengthen,
CAMs want to initiate isolated convection on the dry line in
northeast Colorado. That area will be on the western fringe of
the better instability in Kansas and Nebraska, but the REFS does
show up to 1000 j/kg in Colorado just on the moist side of the
dry line. There is also around 35 kts of deep layer shear due to
the northwest flow aloft. Forcing is rather weak, with only a
hint of an upper shortwave, but if something can initiate the
environment would be supportive of a wind and hail risk during
the late afternoon to early evening hours for the Colorado and
Kansas border area. Temperatures continue to warm with highs in
the middle 90s.

On Saturday, northwest flow continues around the upper ridge
with another possible embedded wave. At the surface, the dry
line moves east to about Highway 25 but mixes out somewhat.
Models want to develop a surface low in southwest Nebraska, and
the RFS initiates convection there in the afternoon which moves
east through the evening. Forecast instability is weak to
moderate at best, but deep layer shear does increase to up to 40
kts by the afternoon. Confidence is on the low side that there will
be any convection at all given the strength of the ridge and
overall weak forcing, but does not take much in northwest flow
for at least a low severe risk should something develop.
Temperatures continue to rise with highs in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. Afternoon humidity minimums fall into the teens west
of the dry line, lowest in Colorado, but winds are more
marginal for critical fire weather conditions, however there
will be at least elevated conditions in those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Beginning Sunday, the Tri-State area is forecast to be under a
mostly zonal upper-level flow with a ridge building west of the
Rocky Mountains. High temperatures are forecast to remain
unseasonably warm for the county warning area (CWA) through Tuesday
with highs in the 90s to 100s. A weak cold front moving through
Tuesday night will bring modest cooling, but high temperatures are
still forecast in the 90s for Wednesday.

Starting Monday evening through at least Wednesday evening, there is
a chance for showers and thunderstorms overnight due to embedded
shortwave passages. Currently, Wednesday is looking like our best
chance with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 30-50% for the
CWA.

Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures, fire weather concerns
are minimal for the forecast period. Relative humidity (RH) values
for the western CWA are forecast in the low teens to 20s for Sunday
and Monday. Peak wind gusts are forecast to be around 25 mph, but
highest wind gusts do not coincide with lowest RH values of the day.
Beginning Monday afternoon, winds will primarily be from the east
advecting more moisture into the Tri-State area allowing minimum RH
values to gradually recover into the 20s to 30s after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1047 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Light upslope winds will result in the MVFR ceilings persisting
well into the afternoon at both KGLD and KMCK. A return to VFR
is expected around 22-23z. Tonight, the low ceilings will return
to both terminal by around 09z and continue through Thursday
morning. A period of reduced visibility in fog is also possible
around sunrise, especially at KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...024