472
FXUS63 KGLD 152307
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
407 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through early next week. Return to more seasonable as the
  work week goes on.

- Slight precipitation chances Sunday night in Colorado, but
  most will stay dry.

- Better precipitation chances late in the week, including snow
  for some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Temperatures are slightly cooler today in the wake of an earlier
frontal passage. However, with shortwave ridging quickly
rebuilding from the southwest temperatures remain above normal.
That will be the case tomorrow as well with temperatures back
into the upper 60s under the ridge axis. Models have finally
come into agreement with the track of the upper low Sunday
night and Monday. It will move from central Colorado to the
Nebraska panhandle, a track that will dry slot most of the local
area. The only exception might be far northeast Colorado where
some light rain showers may develop Sunday night as the upper
low moves by. Otherwise, no impacts expected from this system.
Monday will see another mild day with temperatures back into the
60s and lows Monday night in the 30s. A cold front Monday night
behind the departing low will bring slightly cooler temperatures
on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows
Tuesday night in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

The next system for late in the week is trending more impactful
with better model agreement. It will be over the Four Corners
Thursday morning then slowly work its way into the central
plains through Friday. ECMWF now on board with the GFS solution
showing a closed upper low over northwest Kansas Thursday night
and Friday with a large swath of precipitation. As colder
temperatures work in on the backside of the system, rain may
change to snow in northeast Colorado Thursday night through
Friday morning, and potentially further east for areas generally
along and north of Interstate 70 on Friday. This is still
several days out so would expect the models to change over the
next few days, especially regarding any snow potential.
Temperatures are marginal at best for snow so precipitation
type will be very sensitive to any changes. Timing currently
shows the system lifting out on Saturday with temperatures near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light southerly winds
will continue through the night, becoming breezy after 18z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL