Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 242337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Early this afternoon a 1040mb high sits over central Canada with its
axis extending southwest into the Tri-State area. The leading edge
of a stratus deck resides from near McCook to Hill City east.

For tonight am expecting southeast winds to increase into the 15 to
25 mph range with some higher gusts as the pressure gradient between
the sfc high and front range low pressure slowly increases, a low
level jet develops overhead. Question becomes how far west the
stratus deck makes it. NAM pushes it all the way across the forecast
area which typically happens. The GFS brings it as far west as the
extreme west and southwest corners of our area. Some weak elevated
instability develops across the extreme west and southwest around
midnight then again across the far east toward sunrise. Confidence
not high enough for thunder mention but I will keep some some
showers going out east. For the rest of the area could see some
drizzle and fog. Low temperatures should range from around 30/low
30s east to the mid/upper 30s west.

Difficult forecast for Sunday. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF all have the front
range surface low west of our area from near Limon to La Junta by
the end of the day. The northeast 2/3 or so of the area will have
east to southeast winds which will keep much cooler air and
clouds over the area compared to the other side of the stationary
front where mostly sunny to sunny conditions expected along with a
south to southwest wind. Where that front ends up will be key to
the forecast for all weather parameters. Currently have high
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s on the cooler
side of the front with 60 to around 70 on the other side. Some
weak instability also develops along the frontal boundary and will
keep the mention of slight chance low chance pops for showers and
isolated thunderstorms from Goodland north and northwest around

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

For Sunday night will be adding some light showers, drizzle and fog
as boundary layer resaturates with dry slot above. Low temperatures
should range from the mid 30s to around 40. Will have to monitor
temps for possibility of flurries or light snow showers being added
to forecast.

Main area of interest is the precipitation chances for the
beginning of the week.

Monday afternoon the dry line over the southern part of the forecast
area will rotate east and merge with the cold front that will move
south.  Behind the front some rain may develop due to lift from the
upper level short wave trough over the west.

Monday night the placement of precipitation will depend on where the
band of mid level frontogenesis sets up.  Consensus favors the
frontogenesis being over Eastern Colorado, which would give a
favorable chance for the western half of the forecast area.  If data
continues to support this, precipitation chances will need to be
increased.  During the night the rain will transition to snow as the
colder air moves in.  The 700-600mb frontogenesis lingers well into
the overnight hours before shifting south, but the theta-e lapse
rates are quite stable, which prevent anything more than small
precipitation amounts from occurring.

Winds may increase during the night as stronger winds from the low
level jet mix down to the ground.

Tuesday morning the precipitation will shift south of the forecast
area with the frontogenesis.

Tuesday through Saturday there will be a couple more chances for
precipitation.  The chances for precipitation mid week look more
promising than at the end of the week.  Wednesday night an upper
level short wave trough will move through with a cold front.  The
upper level short wave trough will move fairly quickly, so am not
expecting anything more than small precipitation amounts.  On
Saturday the upper level short wave trough that moves through will
give the forecast area a glancing blow, so to speak, as it moves


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru 08z Sunday...then IFR/MVFR mix
from 08z-21z w/ ceilings ranging from OVC008-025 and 6sm in light
drizzle/fog. Winds...ESE 10-15kts.

For KMCK...VFR conditions thru 06z Sunday...then IFR/MVFR mix
with ceilings ranging from OVC008-015 and 5-6sm in light drizzle
and fog. Winds...ESE 10-15kts.




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