


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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845 FXUS63 KGLD 160714 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 114 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for storms continue today, with the chance for severe storms late in the day into the evening. - Daily chances for showers and storms continue through early next week. Strong to severe storms are possible as well. - Temperatures return to the 90s Friday, continually warming into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 111 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Stratus and patchy fog, along with north-northeasterly winds, will keep temperatures today in mid 70s in the northern CWA with upper 80s expected along the southern edges of the CWA. Light showers or a few storms may form in the morning and linger through the day as multiple boundaries interact with each other and we a near saturation at the surface. Starting around 23Z, we are expecting the main wave of storms to start firing in eastern Colorado and move east. Another area of development may occur in the southeastern CWA around 1-3Z. These storms could be capable of producing hail up to 1.5-2 inches initially, but will become more of a wind threat as the event progresses. Gusts up around 70 MPH would likely be the max winds from this event. There is a <10% chance of localized flooding. Areas will be most susceptible to flooding if they receive showers during the day and multiple rounds of heavy rainfall during the event. Most of the storm activity will occur south of I-70, but weaker storms are still likely across the northern CWA. The storms look to start exiting the area around 6Z, but lingering precipitation will continue until Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight look to cool into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Thursday is forecast to be post frontal as high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 70s. It may be even cooler as moisture will still remain across the area especially if cloud cover lingers through the day. Some weak vorticity off of the Rockies during the day may lead to some additional shower and storm potential but at this time am not expecting any severe weather at this time. Into the weekend a surface high develops across the southeast portion of the CONUS as longwave trough develops across the western portions of the CONUS. Moisture is forecast to remain in place as well which suggests that daily chances for showers and storms and potentially severe weather through the weekend. The surface high pressure across the south does appear to begin to shift to north during the start of next week which favors hot temperatures returning to the area. Depending on the orientation of the high some monsoonal moisture may advect into the area as well which would support storm development along the western periphery of the high pressure. If the high pressure shifts to the east then a better coverage of storms would be possible across the area, but if it shifts to the west then rainfall would be confined to Colorado. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1116 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 0715Z Update: Stratus is forming ahead of schedule across the area with ceilings around the 700 feet AGL height. Winds are sporadically weakening to less than 7 kts, but then pick back up. Overall, an unpredictable night to fly. Conditions at both KGLD and KMCK are expected to worsen by sunrise. Gusty winds will be far more common at KGLD until about 12Z, with gusts around 20 kts expected until then. KMCK could see some gusts around 20-25 kts by sunrise, but they are expected to be less common. A LIFR stratus deck is expected to move in from the north around 9-12Z. Patchy fog is also possible, but prolonged visibilities below 3SM is not expected. Stratus looks to lift to MVFR heights around 16-18Z. Around 0Z, the next round of storms are forecast to move in. KGLD is expected to be more impacted by these storms. Timing is still a bit of a question, but expected a pretty widespread convective system in the evening and overnight hours. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...CA