580
FXUS63 KGLD 061906
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
106 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and drizzle are forecast to continue through the
  evening and overnight.

- Fog could develop over portions of the area Monday night into
  Tuesday morning. If cloud cover thins-out and fog does not
  develop, some potential for frost may exist over northern
  portions of the area Tuesday morning.

- Warming trend begins Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s by
  late week and into the weekend.

- Next potentially impactful system may occur this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

High pressure and associated cold air advection continue to filter
into the area. Thick cloud cover remains in place as well although
some breaks are seen across central Nebraska where some drier
mid level air resides. High temperatures for the day remain
forecast in the low 50s across the area. If cloud cover can
remain thick enough then some spotty locales may not even hit 50
degrees. Have added drizzle into the forecast for the majority
of the day for most of the area as some weak omega remains
around or just below 850-800mb range; which correlates well with
what is occurring now and what hourly RAP13 guidance is
depicting the current omega to be. Overnight a weak 500mb
shortwave is forecast to move across SW Kansas which may lead to
some showers and isolated storms primarily along and south of
Highway 40. Guidance has trended a little further south with
this wave however so have nudged rainfall chances down some.
Also am noticing some continuation of weak surface omega as well
before 09Z so have drizzle mention continuing but 12Z RAP
soundings are not as saturated in the profile as they are as of
right now which leads to me think it may be a bit more spotty
what is currently being observed.

A surface high is forecast to nudge into the area from the north
leading to light and variable winds across mainly northern portions
of the area which may result in some shallow radiational fog
potential as 15Z RAP soundings around sunrise across northeast
portions of the area. If fog doesn`t develop then some patchy frost
may develop. Further to the west mainly along and near the Highway
27 corridor from Dundy down towards Greeley county, winds have been
trending towards more of a northeasterly direction which is
climatologically favored for fog. Guidance has been trending
more towards cloud cover breaking across northern portions of
the area overnight. If this does occur then strong radiational
cooling potential would ensue as dew points may fall as low as
the mid 30s. Some patchy frost may occur as well if this would
be the case favoring mainly river valleys. Due to the
conditional nature of this and the very low probability it would
affect a large area of a county will forego any Frost
Advisories at this time.

Tuesday, zonal flow returns to the area with influences of the
surface high remaining especially for eastern portions of the
forecast area. Guidance is starting to trend towards stratus
continuing across western and southwestern portions of the area
through the day which will again impact temperatures so have
begun a lowering trends; high temperatures at this time are
currently forecast in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area.
The surface high across the area does look to lead to continued
lighter winds across the area eventually turning to the east as
the high pressure departs the area. A weak wave off of the
Rockies during the evening may lead to 15-20% chance of
additional showers during the evening hours mainly south of
Interstate 70. Tuesday evening and night winds will start
turning more southerly however eastern areas may continue to
keep the southeasterly winds. If this is the case then the
potential exists for fog again to develop; perhaps even dense
fog with a high mixing ratio difference between the surface and
1km AGL. Will preclude from including fog in the forecast for
now to assure consistency with guidance due to such subtle wind
difference .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The start of the extended period sees some ridging developing across
the southern Plains resulting in a warming trend for the area with
temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s currently. The ridge is
forecast to amplify some into the weekend with 80s returning for
highs. Winds on Wednesday are forecast to become breezy as a surface
trough moves through the area gusting 30-35 mph. We are forecast to
get a surge of low level moisture helping keep humidity values
well above any concerns for fire weather. Humidity values on
Thursday are forecast to be lower on the backside of the trough
along with warmer temperatures, but due to the fact we are
currently forecast to be behind the trough winds are forecast to
remain at bay to preclude fire weather concerns.

Friday and into the weekend, another trough is forecast to develop
across the western CONUS. Warmest temperatures are forecast to occur
during this time with highs in the mid 80s forecast on Saturday.
Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to develop during the day
Saturday possibly gusting into the mid to upper 40s via a
strengthening 850 and 700mb jet in response to a developing
surface low across northeast Colorado. At this time, it appears
that dew points will remain higher than what occurred this past
weekend; even with deep mixing perhaps elevated fire weather
conditions could occur. A cold front is then forecast to move
across the area Sunday which may be the only potential for
rainfall seen in the extended period at this time. It is worth
noting that the 12Z GFS indicates a strong 850mb jet with the
front and has been speeding up and strengthening from previous
runs. If this does pan out then gusty to windy conditions may
also accompany the front. An interesting feature to keep an eye
on over the coming days to see if this trend does continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Stratus and a combination of fog/drizzle remains across the area
resulting in MVFR to IFR ceilings. Anticipating some temporary
improvements (IFR to MVFR for GLD and MVFR to VFR for MCK) as
the afternoon goes on as some drier air aloft moves in.
Drizzle/fog is a bit more favorable for GLD so will continue the
4sm tempo as well for that. Current forecast has the potential
for VFR ceilings returning starting around 01Z although there
could still be some periods of MVFR ceilings occurring however.
Towards the morning, watching for the potential for some
radiational fog to develop favoring MCK at this time. This
threat seems a bit more conditional at this time as forecast
soundings don`t have much saturation in the low levels. Will not
include at this time but will need to be monitored in upcoming
TAF issuances.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg