437
FXUS63 KGLD 260127
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
627 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures Sunday, above normal temperatures
  Monday through Saturday.

- Precipitation chances (20%) return Wednesday night with
  20%-40% chances of light rain and snow Thursday through
  Saturday morning. Small window for light freezing rain late
  Wednesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2025

Overall forecast remains on track. I did nudge overnight low
temperatures up a few more degrees due to the continued thick
cloud cover that looks to remain across the area due to moist
mid and upper levels through the night. I also did nudge low
temperatures up a couple degrees tomorrow night (Sunday night
into Monday AM) as winds ranging from 230-260 degrees does
support climatological downslope warming with the strongest
occurring across Kit Carson county and into NW Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2025

Tonight...a difficult low temperature forecast. A 1034mb surface
high settles over the area, allowing for light winds and cold
temperatures. However, there will also be quite a bit of cloud cover
streaming across the area from the west, which would tend to prevent
temperatures from getting to some of the guidance numbers. Blending
the better performing temperature guidance from the past 7 days
suggests low temperatures will generally be in the 10 to 20 degree
range.

Sunday-Sunday night...cloud cover steadily decreases during day with
a clear sky overnight. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in
the lower to upper 30s with low temperatures in the 11F to 17F
range.

Monday-Monday night...widespread sunshine is expected with a clear
sky overnight. High temperatures rise into the middle 40s to middle
50s with low temperatures in the middle teens to lower 20s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...daytime temperatures remain mild for late
January with upper 40s to upper 50s forecast, supported by 850mb
temperatures of 7C to 9C. Low temperatures are forecast to be
slightly above normal, in the upper teens to middle 20s. Not much in
the way of cloud cover as we`re in some upper level ridging, in
between a cutoff low over Arizona and a trough over the northeast
US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2025

Wednesday...some cooler air moves in, lowering daytime temperatures
into the lower 40s to around 50. Low temperatures remain slightly
above normal in the upper teens to lower 20s. The operational
GFS/GEM/ECMWF models continue to forecast very dry air in the 850-
500mb layer ahead of the cutoff low which is forecast to be along
the Arizona/Mexico border by 12z Thursday. This mornings NBM model
solution is now advertising dry weather during the day with a 20%
chance of light rain showers through midnight, transitioning to
light freezing rain and light snow showers after midnight as far
north as Interstate 70. Will need to watch this in the coming days
as the precipitation forecast may be a bit too fast and optimistic
given the above mentioned operational models.

Thursday...this mornings GFS/GEM/GEFS models are moving the upper
low northeast toward northeast New Mexico/southeast
Colorado/southwest Kansas area by 12z Friday. The 12z and yesterdays
00z ECMWF models have the low over southern New Mexico.

Presently, the forecast is calling for a 20%-30% chance of light
rain and snow showers mainly from Flager to Hill City and points
south during the day, similar to the precipitation shield moving in
from the south from the GFS/GEM models. Overnight, the precipitation
shield continues moving north with 20%-30% chances for light rain
showers and snow showers in the evening, changing over to all snow
after midnight. Snowfall accumulations remain in the little to none
category at this time.

High temperatures are forecast to be above normal in the middle 40s
to lower 50s with low temperatures in the 20 to 25 degree range.

Friday...this mornings guidance (GFS/GEM/ECMWF/GEFS models) has the
upper low becoming slightly negatively tilted as it lifts northeast
toward the Oklahoma panhandle area during the day, continuing
northeast into parts of central/eastern Kansas overnight.

The GFS/ECMWF models show the mid level dry slot entering the entire
area from the south with varying solutions on its placement
overnight. The better moisture wrapping around the low is in the 850-
700mb layer. There is currently a 20%-40% chance of rain showers and
snow showers during the day and 20%-40% chances for rain
showers/snow showers changing over to snow showers overnight.
Presently, snowfall amounts arent anything to write home about and
confidence in any solution this far out in time is on the lower end.

Not much wind to worry about either for the moment. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s to middle 40s with
low temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Saturday...there may be some light wraparound rain/snow showers (20%
chance) across Norton/Graham counties in the morning before dry
weather returns for the afternoon and overnight hours. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 40s with low
temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Sat Jan 25 2025

KGLD...VFR conditions are forecast through the period. A light
northerly wind at taf issuance will become light and variable
from 01z-11z. After 12z, a southeasterly wind under 10kts veers
to the south at speeds up to 11kts after 17z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are forecast through the period with light
and variable winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99