Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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887 FXUS64 KHUN 251619 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1018 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 -Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon for areas east of I-65 with a threat for damaging winds and a tornado. -Cooler conditions will build in behind the cold front and remain for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1018 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Our weather today will be driven by an approaching surface cold front prompting high rain chances and some strong to severe storms this afternoon. Our main forecast challenge for this event will be evaluating how parameters change throughout the day. Currently, stratiform rain and overcast conditions, which plagued the area most of the night, are beginning to both dissipate and push east out of our area. In its wake, some clearing and subsequent heating is expected. How much clearing we see will dictate how unstable we get. The 12Z CAMS that have come in support around 1000 J/KG of CAPE in NE AL. This could be more or less depending on how long cloud cover sticks around, increasing/decreasing our severe threat. While the amount of CAPE is still somewhat uncertain, the remaining parameters have become pretty clear. Storms are expected to fire slightly ahead of the front with the cold front acting as the main forcing. While the front will move through our entire area from NW to SE, it will remain weak through its duration in our area. Associated with the frontal boundary, we look to have plenty of shear through the afternoon. Based on the available 12Z models 0-1 KM shear will be around 40 KTs with 0-6 KM shear between 40-50 KTs. Along and ahead of the front SE surface flow will support some moisture return with dew points looking to rise back into the 60s in NE AL by this afternoon. Based on all of these parameters it appears convective initiation will happen somewhere in NW AL to north central AL in the late morning. The shear and boundary orientation show the potential for some discrete supercells, but storms will likely congeal into multicell clusters as they move SE. Available CAMs show the best thermodynamics in NE AL this afternoon (highest CAPE and moisture overlapping with sufficient shear and forcing). This area will be most favorable for damaging winds and, with low LCLs forecast, a tornado or two and hail. A secondary threat will be urban flooding especially with any clogged drainage from fallen leaves. We will be keeping an eye on surface observations and satellite trends to refine our convective initiation timing through the morning. Storms look to exit the area around 6 PM with rain chances dropping significantly through the night. With the departure of the front surface winds will veer to the west with zonal flow taking precedence both at the surface and aloft. While temps look to drop into the high 40s to low 50s, cloud cover does look to remain through most of the night. Paired with winds remaining elevated, this will dissuade any additional cooling from radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 1018 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Surface high pressure will build behind the front and remain dominant through the short term forecast. This will present a significant pattern change from or recent warm days as NNW flow along the base of high pressure will usher in much cooler and drier continental air. As high pressure builds in the northern Plains, NNW flow will be maintained through the end of the week. This will significantly drop both temperatures and dew points. Dew points look to drop through the day on Wednesday from the 50s to the high 20s. Temperatures will see a similar drop through the day on Wednesday with our high temps in the low 50s likely being observed before noon with temps steadily dropping through the afternoon. The remainder of the week will maintain these cool temps with highs in the 40s on Thursday and Friday and overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 As we dive into the weekend, dry and warming conditions are forecast under the influence of sfc high pressure residing over the Southeast US. High temperatures are forecast to reach the 40s on Friday before warming into the mid 50s by Sunday. Saturday night, sfc high pressure begins to shift eastward as an upper level trough begins to slowly push into the Mississippi Valley, bringing medium chances of showers on Sunday and Monday. As an upper level closed low pushes more eastward towards our area, a cold front is forecast to bring increased shower chances (50-60%) ahead of it Monday evening into Tuesday. Due to this system being almost a week out, we will have to continue to monitor trends throughout the week. However, as of now, looks to be showers with potentially heavy rainfall. If you have post- holiday travel plans early next week, check back in for forecast updates as we approach the weekend! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Showers and storms have spread across the region this morning, with MVFR to IFR conditions associated with convection at times. Latest surface observations around the region do suggest a brief return to VFR conditions are possible as a lull in activity occurs behind this mornings convection, however, additional scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop late morning to mid day and continue into the afternoon. Additional MVFR to IFR cigs are possible with this activity, and wind gusts up to 50kts cannot be ruled out in the event of severe activity. The cold front is expected to progress through the area later this afternoon with a return to VFR conditions this evening. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation: The Climate Prediction Center has included all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation for December 2nd. Precipitation exceeding 1.5 inches is possible during this period. More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...99