162
FXUS64 KHUN 071149
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
549 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 855 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

 - Low to medium chances of fog tonight with the potential for
   some to see it become freezing fog as temperatures drop to
   freezing below in several spots.

 - Low to medium (20-40%) chances of periodic light rain late
   Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

 - Colder temperatures return early next week with sub-freezing
   lows Monday night, followed by a warming trend through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 428 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, our forecast area will remain beneath a
belt of 55-65 knot WSW flow for the duration of the near term
period, downstream from an amplifying shortwave trough that will
dig southeastward from the central Rockies into the Arklatex
vicinity by 0Z. At the surface, light SSE return flow (between a
high migrating eastward across the central/southern Appalachians
and a decaying area of low pressure across eastern KS/western MO)
has already begun across the western portion of the CWFA, where an
overcast layer of low stratus (based around 500 ft AGL) has
surged northward. Although this evolution has contributed to a
minor increase in temperatures and less risk for development of
fog, that is not the case yet across our northeast AL/southern
Middle TN zones and a Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for
this portion of the CWFA that will run until 9 AM CST.

As has been the case for the past several days, there is a high
degree of uncertainty regarding when the overcast stratus layer
will begin to lift and scatter today (if it does so at all).
Current thinking is that this is unlikely to occur, and we have
adjusted NBM deterministic highs in the lower 50s downward by a
few degrees. That said, light low-level flow veering to the SSW
with time should allow for some increase in temperatures this
afternoon, with most locations at least briefly touching the m-u
40s. Well to the southwest of the region, precipitation (both
stratiform and convective in nature) is predicted to expand from
the Sabine Valley northeastward across the Lower MS Valley, as a
lower latitude wave of low pressure tracks eastward along the
northwest Gulf Coast. Although some light rain may enter northwest
AL prior to 0Z, the majority of the precipitation with this event
should occur beyond the end of this forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 855 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Any lingering patchy fog/freezing fog issues will dissipate with
sunrise. We will warm up to lower 50s on Sunday, much closer to
seasonal values that we have been. That unfortunately, will be
short lived. The trough`s who center is located up in the Hudson
Bay will amplify on Sunday and the associated sfc low in the
eastern Great Lakes will pull a cold front into the region. The
cold front will enter the TN Valley Sunday night and bring low to
medium chances (20-40%) of rainfall with it that lingers into
Monday. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 30s.

Behind the frontal passage, high pressure will build in and funnel
in the colder air with a northwesterly wind. Drier air will
decrease cloud cover, but highs on Monday will be back in the 40s.
Monday night will be 10-15 degrees cooler than the night before
with lows in the mid 20s under mostly clear skies. High pressure
will shift eastward on Tuesday, allowing southerly flow to return.
This will help daytime highs get back into the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 855 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Wednesday may be the best day of the entire forecast as high pressure
at the surface will promote dry and mostly sunny conditions. As a
result, high temperatures will make a run at the 60 degree mark in
some locations by the afternoon. A fast-moving trough over the Great
Lakes will attempt to push a cold front south toward the region from
the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. This front
will probably struggle to make it all the way into the area, but a
secondary shortwave will interact with this feature and generate some
low chances (20-40%) chances for rain showers Thursday and Thursday
night. In wake of this system, a cooler, drier air mass will settle
into the area by Friday.

A broad upper-trough situated over southern Ontario will
become the dominant weather feature over the eastern CONUS late this
week into the weekend. Several subtle shortwaves will traverse this
feature, bringing additional reinforcing shots of cooler air into the
region. Highs on Friday will peak in the mid to upper 40s, with
overnight lows dropping into the lower 20s. Saturday looks to be even
chillier as high temperatures will struggle to climb above the 40
degree mark -- with lows Saturday night in the Teens being common.
Saturday night we may need to watch wind chills as readings in the
single digits in a few locations may occur along the higher terrain.
Regardless, it`s important to recognize that a spill of colder
weather and below normal temperatures will be favored late next week
into the following week for mid-December. Make sure you review common
sense safety rules for cold weather and make sure you`re prepared.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation
forecast reasoning, with IFR-level stratus and brief vsby
reductions in lgt BR expected to continue at both terminals thru
at least 16Z. Beyond this point, it is uncertain how much of an
impact SSW winds will have in terms of mixing the boundary layer
and forcing the stratus layer to rise, but we have not indicated
this occurring prior to the arrival of lgt rain by 23Z/MSL and
1Z/HSV. In the wake of evening precipitation, winds will shift to
NNW as a cold front crosses the region, with cigs perhaps
returning to MVFR levels by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ006-
     008>010.

TN...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...70/DD