349
FXUS63 KICT 191814
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
114 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some strong and severe storms are expected late this afternoon and
  evening.

- Some strong storms are possible for southeast Kansas on Sunday.

- High confidence for below average temperatures Mon-Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A cold front was bisecting northwest Kansas this morning while a
trough of low pressure extended SSW of this frontal boundary. As the
low level flow backs late this afternoon/early this evening we may
see some pooling of low level moisture allowing the cap to weaken
sufficiently. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the frontal zone after 4 pm. Meanwhile, another hot day
is anticipated south of the front where a deeply mixed pbl is
expected once again. This deeply mixed pbl will become
moderately unstable with large DCAPE. Strong downdrafts are
likely with any storm that develops while the threat for large
hail appears slightly less favorable given modest mid-lvl lapse
rates. PWATs around 2 inches or above the 97th percentile will
support efficient rainfall with some localized flooding concerns
where training occurs. Another cluster of storms is expected to
develop across the Central High Plains this evening as the
mid/upper trough moves into the Northern Rockies. This cluster
may be aided by a developing LLJ nosing into central KS allowing
the storms to persist arriving across the area after midnight.
The frontal boundary is progged to become stationary across the
Flint Hills late tonight. As mid-lvl lapse rates steepen through
the night, we could still see a few lingering strong/severe
storms across the area.

Some showers and storms may be ongoing early in the day on Sunday
with considerable convective debris leading to little or reduced
insolation and temperatures were trended lower. The front will
become a focus for showers and storms once again as we move through
the day. An earlier onset appears likely which may limit the threat
for more widespread severe weather before the focus shifts south and
east of the area late in the day. Maintained some low pops into
Sunday evening with some lingering mid-lvl waa as the pv anomaly
moves across the area. Much cooler air will arrive in the wake of
the cold front while a slower fropa will result in another mild day
in parts of southern KS on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday...a stable post-frontal regime is anticipated as we
move through the middle of the work-week with cool weather expected.
Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the 70s with lows in the
50s.

Thursday-Sunday...The mid/upper ridge is progged to reside over the
Southern Plains while nosing into the Central Plains as we move into
the latter portion of the week. This will allow temperatures to
begin to moderate with seasonably mild values anticipated. Flow
around this ridge may help steer some shortwave troughs toward the
area late in the week and into the weekend and some modest pops were
maintained through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A slow moving cold front will become a focus for showers and
thunderstorms after 4 pm. Winds will shift to the northeast in
the wake of the front with breezy southwest winds ahead of the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous across parts of central and south central Kansas after
4 PM with some strong and severe storms possible. Gusty and
erratic winds are expected in and close to thunderstorms. Another
complex of storms may arrive after midnight across parts of
central Kansas bringing a threat for strong winds. Low ceilings
will also develop in the post-frontal airmass with widespread
IFR low ceilings possible during the predawn hours over central
and parts of south central KS. Low ceilings may be slow to mix
out on Sunday while the better chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be across southeast Kansas during the day on
Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM