931
FXUS63 KICT 151109
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
609 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best opportunity for another round of more widespread showers
  and storms will arrive late Wed night into Thu night across much
  of the area.

- Warmer on Tue-Wed with a brief cooldown followed by rising
  temperatures this coming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Warm and breezy conditions will prevail over the region today with
only some passing high level clouds. Afternoon highs will climb into
the 90s across the area, highest in our central Kansas locations
where upper 90s will be common. A rogue storm could impact parts of
southeast KS this afternoon and evening in a buoyant and uncapped
airmass but probabilities remain low.

Low level moisture advection is progged across the area tonight
ahead of a southward advancing cold front. It should result in a
mild night with lows in the 70s. As the LLJ picks up tonight there
could be an attempt at some elevated convection although higher
probabilities should remain north and northeast of our area.

Wed-Fri...A shortwave trough moving east across the Northern Plains
will drive a cold front south into the area Wednesday night. This
front will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms late Wed
night and into Thursday night as it moves slowly southward over the
area. Widespread showers and storms will likely drive the effective
frontal boundary further south Thursday night before it mixes back
northward over the area on Friday. Another hot day is anticipated on
Wed before a brief break arrives on Thu. Some locations may struggle
to climb out of the 70s with plenty of clouds/precipitation. The
cooldown will be short-lived with 90s returning across the area on
Friday.  There is some potential for efficient rain with storms
along and north of the frontal boundary on Thu-Thu night. PWATs are
progged to climb to around 2 inches which is well above the 90th
percentile with deep warm cloud depth approximations.

Sat-Mon...The mid/upper ridge may begin to have a greater influence
on the weather across the area as we move into the weekend and early
next week. Rising heights/increasing thickness should allow
temperatures to rise into the upper 90s/around 100 in may areas while
some isolated or widely scattered diurnally driven storms may remain
in the forecast from time-to-time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR will prevail today across the area. Some patchy morning fog
could briefly impact KCNU but it should dissipate by 13Z. Breezy
southerly winds will impact central KS with some gusts in the
15-17 knot range this afternoon. Showers and storms may impact
northern Kansas late tonight but the activity is expected to
remain north of our TAF sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM