607
FXUS63 KICT 210408
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1108 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms are possible in southeast KS this afternoon.

- Seasonable and dry weather conditions are expected  Monday through
  Wednesday.

- Increasing probabilities for showers/storms late Wednesday
  night into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A cold front was bisecting southeast Kansas this morning with a
considerable amount of post-frontal stratus impacting much of
northern and portions of central Kansas. This is expected to keep
temperatures in the 70s for most areas behind the front with some
modest low level caa. Meanwhile, some breaks in the clouds will
allow highs to climb to near 90 in the far southeast corner of KS
early in the period with steady or falling temperatures anticipated.
Some showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
buoyant and weakly capped airmass along and ahead of the front this
afternoon while the focus gradually shifts south and east of the
area as we move into the evening and overnight hours. A moist
upslope flow regime over the Central High Plains is expected to
result in a complex of showers and storms developing this evening.
This activity is expected to drift south and east across western
Kansas possibly clipping our central KS counties during the
overnight hours before diminishing, although higher probabilities
are expected to remain further west.

Mon-Wed...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated through the
period with light northeast winds. The mid/upper ridge is progged to
build over the stable shallow airmass with minimal impacts to
sensible weather. Highs are expected to range from 75-80 through the
period with lows mostly in the 50s, which is near climate normals
for late Sep.

By Wed night, we may see some increase in shower activity as rich
moisture wraps around the mid/upper ridge centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley area. PWATs are progged to rise above 1.5" as
more subtle features rotate around this feature. This moist plume is
progged to remain across the Central and Southern Plains into the
upcoming weekend with multiple opportunities for beneficial rainfall
through the period. Temperatures are expected to moderate by this
weekend with above average values returning to the area Sat-Sun. The
threat for a few strong or severe storms may be hard to rule out
over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Aviation concern remains low clouds through at least Mon
morning.

Not much has changed over the last several hours with MVFR
cigs encompassing all of central and much of southern KS. Will
stick with the thinking that they will remain in place through
the overnight hours and into Mon morning. For now will have them
lifting to VFR levels in the 17-18z time frame. Looking further
ahead, confidence is increasing that low cigs may work back into
the area late Mon night into Tue morning. Will be something to
keep an eye on.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL