400
FXUS63 KICT 211142
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
542 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances gradually waning from south to north today.

- Additional rain chances Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

- Temperatures remaining mild through Monday, then a cold front brings
  cooler weather Tuesday onwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis show deep
longwave troughing across much of the western and central CONUS.
This morning, an embedded lobe of vorticity is progressing
across the central plains while the main system remains located
over southern California. Across Kansas, broad synoptic lift
from the approaching shortwave continues to support the
development and persistence of widespread showers generally
along and north of US-54 this morning. As this system slowly
lifts northward today, rain chances will gradually end from
south to north. Lingering low rain chances may persist into this
evening along the I-70 corridor as a result of weak deformation
band; however, any rainfall from this should be relatively
light. At the low levels, northerly winds on the back side of
the surface low will usher in cooler air today with many areas
across central Kansas struggling to rise above the 40s this
afternoon.

With clearer skies and westerly winds on Saturday, temperatures
should have an easy time recovering back into the 60s area wide
during the afternoon hours. However, this break in active
weather will be short-lived as the next system is forecast to
arrive on Sunday. Similar to Thursday`s rainfall event, broad
synoptic lift from height falls and vorticity advection aloft
will support a large swath of rainfall that sweeps across the
forecast area Sunday night through Monday afternoon with rain
chances ending from southwest to northeast. On the back side of
another surface low that will traverse across the forecast area,
low-level cold air advection on Tuesday, supported by breezy
northwesterly winds, will establish a cooler and drier air mass
across the region that is expected to persist through the
remainder of next week. Afternoon temperatures Tuesday through
Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the 20s
and low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Continued IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to continue through
much of the day, mainly driven by persistent low ceilings.
Scattered showers continue across portions of eastern and
central Kansas, and pockets of moderate rainfall may briefly
reduce visibilities at times. Rain chances should come to an end
later this afternoon or this evening. Gradually conditions
should improve this evening or tonight to MVFR or VFR as low
clouds slowly diminish.

Winds will be a bit variable as a surface low tracks across the
area this morning. However, winds should become more uniform out
of the north or northwest this afternoon into tonight.
Generally, wind speeds will be between 5 and 15 knots over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC