990
FXUS63 KICT 151127
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms possible from late afternoon
  through tonight, mainly north and west of the KS-turnpike.

- Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across
  portions of central and south central KS.

- Additional storms possible again Tuesday-Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A compact shortwave trough axis is starting to emerge over eastern
Colorado and will move across Kansas from mid-afternoon through late
evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will
be possible by early afternoon and thru the evening as the
associated PV wave impinges on the CWA. Best chances (20%) for
storms across the area will be mainly north and west of the KS
turnpike. Storms that can form may be strong to marginally
severe. Increasing moisture advection is expected to expand
across the area through tonight with a modest LLJ overhead, thus
chances (20-25%) of elevated showers and storms will continue
thru the overnight.

By tomorrow afternoon, longwave troughing will begin to dominate the
western CONUS while ridging dominates the eastern CONUS resulting in
continued southerly to southwesterly flow overhead. Heat indices
will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central
and south central KS. Lee troughing will tighten up the
pressure gradient across the state and bring gusty southerly
winds to the area thru mid week, with temps in the 90s
continuing area wide. By late Tuesday to Wednesday a wave
through the main western trough will push a cold front through
the region increasing chances of showers and storms. Late week
the pattern turns more zonal with chances of intermittent
shower and storms continuing through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Main aviation concern will once again be storm chances today.

Storms that tracked across north central and northeast KS are
now moving into northwest MO. An upper impulse will track
across northern KS into Nebraska today. This feature may allow a
few storms to develop late this afternoon and early evening
across central and south central KS. However, at this time,
confidence is not high enough to insert into TAFs. This is
mainly due to lack of a surface focus.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...RBL