816
FXUS63 KICT 200744
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
144 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning, mainly across
southern/southeast KS; widespread rain this afternoon into Friday

- Patchy fog possible this morning

- Additional shower chances late this weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

As of 130 AM Thursday morning, shortwave midlevel ridging remains
across the central and southern Plains ahead of a strong midlevel
trough across the southwest US/Baja region. A plume of Pacific
moisture continues to overspread the southeastern half of the state.
VWP across southern KS and OK reveal modest low-level WAA, resulting
in widespread showers and thunderstorms across southeast KS.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
mainly southeast KS through the remainder of the morning hours. An
axis of 500-1000 J/kg of elevated instability remains across far
southern/southeast KS. Sufficient acceleration and veering from 1-6
km is yielding 30-35 kt of effective shear across southeast KS.
Therefore the strongest storms will continue to be capable of hail
up to quarter size. WAA will weaken after sunrise with shower/storm
coverage likely to decrease through midday. Aside from
showers/storms, the increasing low-level moisture is likely to
result in at least patchy fog areawide. Visibilities less than 1
mile are possible, especially across central KS.

Strong midlevel height falls will overspread the central Plains late
this afternoon into tonight, resulting in widespread rainfall
spreading north from OK. Additional deformation precipitation is
likely into Friday as the midlevel level trough progresses into the
MS valley. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance continues to suggest
all of central, south-central, and southeast KS stand a 90-100% for
receiving more than 0.50" of rain through Friday evening. The
potential for more than 1" of rainfall ranges from generally 50-60%
across the entire area.

Midlevel ridging will slide into the central/southern Plains
throughout the weekend with mostly sunny skies and seasonable
temperatures in the 50s to near 60 expected. Another midlevel trough
will eject into the central Plains late Sunday into Monday, likely
producing another round of rainfall (60-70%). Long wave midlevel
troughing will settle into the eastern half of the CONUS for
midweek. The arrival of this midlevel trough will shunt a strong
surface cold front through the central Plains. Much cooler
temperatures are expected for Wednesday and beyond with highs in the
40s. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Scattered light showers will impact central and south central
Kansas early this morning while gradually shifting northeastward
with the lead wave. We are still expecting some elevated storms
to impact southeast Kansas through the overnight hours. Some of
the stronger storms could produce nickel to perhaps quarter
sized hail. If we get some breaks in the mid clouds over central
KS there is still some concern that IFR/LIFR cigs may develop
during the predawn hours possibly impacting the KRSL terminal
but higher probabilities for that are expected to remain north
and northeast of our area.

More widespread showers and storms will arrive as we move into
the afternoon hours on Thursday with MVFR gradually
deteriorating to IFR late tomorrow or as we move into the
evening hours. Light easterly winds are anticipated through the
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...MWM