051
FXUS63 KICT 212257
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
457 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain chances continue in central KS through the
  evening.

- Additional rain chances Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

- Mild temperatures through Monday, then a cooldown arrives on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a mid-level
shortwave progressing through the Central Plains as a second
mid/upper wave sits over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, low
pressure is centered over eastern Kansas with the associated warm
front spanning east toward the Ohio River Valley. Isentropic ascent
associated with this boundary has allowed for continued showers and
stratiform rain across north central and northeast Kansas as
trailing precipitation in the deformation zone lingers across
portions of west and northwest Kansas. Additionally, the cold front
associated with this system has brought relatively cool air to the
western half of the forecast area so far today.

PRECIPITATION:

Chances for light rain and drizzle will look to continue across
central Kansas through the evening and overnight hours as the
surface low continues tracking to the east. Still thinking this
will largely be confined to areas along and north of I-70, with
additional accumulations remaining minimal (less than 0.10") per
model consensus.

Dry weather is expected to resume for most of the weekend following
the departure of today`s system. Model consensus then highlights the
arrival of another mid/upper shortwave Sunday evening that will
likely bring additional chances (60-80%) for rainfall through Monday
evening. The track of the best forcing for this system remains a bit
uncertain at this time, with models now carrying higher rainfall
amounts to the northwest and southeast of the forecast area. As
such, it still appears that southeast Kansas will see the highest
amounts with totals decreasing to the west. Guidance continues
to suggest that this upcoming system will bring lower totals
than today`s, though uncertainty remains regarding exact ranges
at this time.

Dry conditions will return to the area by Tuesday with the arrival
of northwest flow aloft. The quiet pattern is progged to hold in
place through the rest of the week.

TEMPERATURES:

Mild temperatures are forecast into the start of next week with
highs near 60 and lows in the 30s and 40s. The arrival of a cold
front on Tuesday will bring a modest cooldown to the area, with
highs near 50 and lows around freezing anticipated to prevail
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 455 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low clouds in IFR category with occasional drizzle reducing
visibility will affect central and south central into the
overnight hours. Conditions will gradually improve from west to
east into the morning hours on Saturday with low clouds
gradually eroding.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ