000
FXUS63 KICT 211128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

GOES-16 channels 8, 9 and 10 continue to indicate a robust
mid/upper trough moving into the Rockies early this morning while
KGLD WSR-88D shows a cold front beginning to impact northwest
Kansas. This mid/upper trough is progged to emerge over the
Central Plains states late in the day and into the overnight
hours. As it does, the cold front will become the focus for deep
moist convection. Cinh is progged to weaken sufficiently between
19-21Z with relatively strong convergence progged along the front.
The timing from yesterday continues to appear on track with
storms expected to develop by around or shortly after 2 pm when
the front stretches from near Salina to Hutchinson. The front will
impact locations along a line from near Harper to Wichita to
Cottonwood Falls by around 4 pm while continuing to surge eastward
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Severe
storms are still anticipated given 0-1km MLCAPE of 1700+ J/KG and
0-6km bulk shear vectors around 50 knots. While a couple of
initial supercells may be possible, a relatively quick transition
to a linear mode still seems like the most likely scenario along
the front with damaging winds the primary concern. An unseasonably
moist airmass is in place across southeast Kansas with PWATs
progged to rise to around 1.65 inches which is around 225 percent
of normal. So, as the front slows down a bit over southeast
Kansas, efficient rainfall production could lead to some flooding
concerns through the evening and overnight hours.

Sun-Mon...storms are expected to be east of the area by 12Z Sun with
a cooler and drier airmass in their wake. Seasonable temperatures
are expected ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another
progressive shortwave trough will drive a cold front south across
the area late Mon but not before highs rise into the lower 70s under
shortwave ridging. Low level moisture will be shunted south of the
area so the front coming in late Monday is expected to come through
with dry weather conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Breezy northwest winds will prevail across the area on Tuesday in
the wake of a clipper-like system digging across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area. Winds will need to be increased as
confidence grows in the coming days. Northwest mid/upper flow will
prevail through the middle of the week before another shortwave
trough arrives late Thu. Some differences in amplitude remain
between the GFS and ECMWF but both models tend to agree with much
cooler air arriving in the wake of the system. As high pressure
settles across the area Thu night/Fri Morning conditions may
become favorable for the first widespread hard freeze across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Strong southerly winds will continue for the morning hours with some
rogue gusts to 30 kts still possible.  As the daytime progresses,
attention will turn to a strong cold front expected to move into the
region for the afternoon. This will lead to a wind shift to the
northwest for most of central KS by 17z for KRSL and KGBD.  As the
front pushes SE, convergence along the front will lead to SHRA/TSRA
developing along it, generally from KSLN to KHUT to KICT by 18-20z.
So will include SHRA and VCTS for this chance.

The cold front will continue to progress into south central Kansas
and southeast Kansas, with a wind shift to the NW expected for the
KICT/KHUT and KSLN taf sites by around 22z.

The SHRA/TSRA chances will become widespread over SE KS for the
evening hours, with some of the heavier storms reducing vsbys values
to MVFR.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  45  70  45 /  70  50   0   0
Hutchinson      74  43  70  44 /  50  20   0   0
Newton          75  43  69  45 /  70  40   0   0
ElDorado        75  46  69  45 /  80  70   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  46  69  45 /  80  80   0   0
Russell         71  37  71  45 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      71  37  71  45 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          74  43  71  45 /  50  20   0   0
McPherson       74  42  70  44 /  50  20   0   0
Coffeyville     78  51  68  43 /  70 100  10   0
Chanute         77  49  68  43 /  80  90  10   0
Iola            77  50  67  43 /  80  90  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    77  51  68  43 /  70  90  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham