000
FXUS63 KICT 242355
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
655 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Surface high pressure remains sprawled across the region this
afternoon resulting in pleasant weather conditions for late June
with light winds and mild temperatures. A subtle shortwave trough
approaching in northwest mid/upper flow may bring some very light
rain showers or sprinkles to the area this evening & tonight but
confidence in timing/magnitude remain low.

The airmass may become a bit more favorable for storm development on
Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with some residual low level
moisture within an uncapped airmass as a subtle shortwave trough
approaches later in the period. This activity may drift eastward
Sunday night impacting much of the area. As the previous shift
noted, strong or severe thunderstorm potential appears rather low
with limited instability and unfavorable mid-level lapse rates. A
shortwave trough digging across the Upper Mississippi Valley area
may allow for some lingering showers & storms into Monday-Monday
night before a brief lull arrives on Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures will prevail through the period but values are
expected to rise on Tue climbing in to the mid and upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A progressive west-east mid/upper flow (high zonal index) is
progged as we move through much of next week with multiple rounds
of showers and storms anticipated. Temperatures are expected to
return to more seasonable values until a more pronounced mid/upper
trough drives a cold front south toward the end of the week. The
risk for some organized strong or even severe storms may increase
during much of the period with better instability and moderate
mid/upper flow spreading across the central Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  A weak mid level
baroclinic zone drifting over portions of central KS may lead to a
few sprinkles for the late evening hours. So will include a VCSH for
the KRSL/KSLN tafs for the late evening hours, but only expecting
trace amounts.

A gradual wind shift to the northeast from a backdoor cold front may
lead to additional chances of showers for Sun afternoon, especially
across portions of central KS, with increasing mid level clouds.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  83  62  83 /  10  20  10  20
Hutchinson      59  83  61  82 /  10  20  20  30
Newton          59  82  60  80 /  10  20  20  30
ElDorado        59  82  60  80 /  10  20  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   61  83  62  83 /  10  20  10  20
Russell         56  80  59  83 /  10  20  30  30
Great Bend      57  81  60  83 /  10  20  30  20
Salina          59  82  60  82 /  10  20  30  40
McPherson       59  82  60  81 /  10  20  20  30
Coffeyville     59  83  61  82 /  10  10  10  20
Chanute         59  82  60  80 /  10  10  30  30
Iola            58  81  59  79 /  10  10  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    60  83  61  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham