000
FXUS63 KICT 191133
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Today:
Numerous showers have continued to move NE from West TX through OK
during the night. As early morning progressed, the leading edge of
the showers had just crossed the OK/KS line. The showers are being
sustained by fairly pronounced 850-800mb moist advection operating
in tandem with a sharp, positively-tilted mid-level trof that
extends from Southern Ontario, thru Nebraska & Western KS, almost
to the OK Panhandle. With the mid-level trof continuing to deepen
as it pushes SE across the Great Lakes & Mid-MS Valley late this
afternoon, it`ll sweep a pre-cold frontal surface trof that should
reach Central KS late this afternoon. This would shift the showers
east as morning progresses with most of the showers confined to
the Southeast KS section of the CWA by midday. The compressional
warming induced by the approaching surface trof should be enough
to produce highs in the mid 70s in Central KS.

This Weekend:
With the cold front crossing KICT Country this evening, it would
certainly be cooler tonight with lows ~10F lower than this
mornings. There`ll be nice weather as a sharp, negatively-tilted
upper-deck ridge pushes slowly east, reaching from the Northern
Rockies to about the OK/TX panhandles late Sunday Night. With the
surface high advancing SE across the Mid-MS Valley on Sun, winds
would shift from NE-E Sat & Sat night, so highs both days would be
cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

After dry weather from Mon thru Tue evening, rains are still set
to arrive primarily South-Central & Central KS late Tue night &
cover much of the CWA Wed & Wed night. Reasons are that a mid-
level shortwave will scoot east across the Rockies & Western
Plains on Wed while the eastward-moving surface trof ventures
into KS. The lower-deck trof would of course inject greater
moisture into the KS Neighborhood as mid-week nears with both
providing the impetus for the shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Aviation concerns: 1) IFR/MVFR CIGs this morning (central KS) and
through this afternoon (southeast KS). 2) Wind shift with cold
front passage this afternoon/early evening.

A cold front is beginning to advance out of the High Plains this
morning and will eventually push through the forecast area by this
evening. Ahead of that front, areas of light to moderate rain and
lower CIGs will impact much of the area. However, the back edge
of the lower clouds is already showing up on satellite imagery as
of this writing and conditions will improve from west to east
today. The heaviest showers could cause reductions in VIS to MVFR,
but the main concern will be the lower clouds. CIGs will mostly be
MVFR, but there will be a brief window of IFR CIGs, especially
KHUT/KICT and possibly KCNU. Confidence is highest at KHUT where
this has already been observed. A wind shift can be expected as
the front moves through later today/this evening.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  44  67  38 /  40   0   0   0
Hutchinson      74  42  66  37 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          69  43  65  37 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        68  43  65  36 /  40   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  44  68  37 /  50   0   0   0
Russell         74  41  64  40 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      74  41  65  39 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          74  42  65  37 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       73  42  65  37 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     62  45  68  35 /  70   0   0   0
Chanute         66  44  66  34 /  70   0   0   0
Iola            66  44  65  33 /  60   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    64  45  68  34 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RM