Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200436
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1136 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

There is a trough moving through the central CONUS which has brought
beneficial rains to the Plains once more. Each round helps locations
get closer to their seasonal normal values and diminish the level of
drought. Amounts have ranged from around an inch to near three
inches. Lower temperatures with values in the 70s and showers aren`t
too bad of a way to cap off the weekend. Hope you are able to get
out and enjoy it with a stroll or bike ride this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Challenge: Lingering precipitation chances and high temperatures for
Monday

Minor breaks in the cloud cover across the southeast portion of the
state could maybe help initiate a strong thunderstorm this evening.
There is some instability with the current mesoscale analysis
indicating 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE and roughly 30 kts of effective
bulk shear. Models suggest a line of convection in this area this
evening. Coverage is less than previously thought given the lack
of clearing/warming over southeast Kansas. The Storm Prediction
Center has removed the mentioned area from the slight risk with
their latest update.

The trough in the central CONUS will deepen as it heads east to the
Missouri Valley on Monday. Cloud cover is going to stick around to
start the work and school week which will help inhibit temperatures
combined with the cooler air in place. A lower trend in temperatures
was inserted for northeast Kansas into the Flint Hills based on this
lingering cloud cover. It is possible that values could trend closer
to the previous forecast, but this will depend on the clearing with
the further eastward progression of this system. As the system
deepens, the tightening gradient is going to bring an increase in
wind speeds for Monday; they are going to be what many consider to
be the Kansas average at sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph. This
trough tracks to be over the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

A ridge is expected to move in after this system for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs will be brought up into the lower 80s which is
nearly 10 degrees below seasonal averages in the lower 90s. There is
weak wave that will move through late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning bringing a return in the precipitation chances.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Challenge: Precipitation chances for the week

Another trough will move from along the Front Range and track
eastward towards the Plains on Thursday. Chances of thunderstorms
exist again late Wednesday night into early Thursday. Another round
could occur on Friday. Multiple chances throughout the forecast are
going to be without a doubt adjusted in future issuance. It has been
a bit here and a bit there with the previous issuances and does not
look to change given the pattern. Temperatures are going to rise
back to lower 90s for next weekend. There is another wave progged to
pass through to end the weekend or start the last week in August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

The main aviation concerns for this TAF forecast period will be
MVFR cloud ceilings Monday morning and gusty winds out of the
northwest.

Latest radar imagery shows a small line of showers with occasional embedded
thunder that has developed in central Kansas in the vicinity of
Lincoln and Ellsworth Counties. This activity is already east of
KRSL and KGBD (and thus will not affect these terminals), but may
allow KSLN to see a short-lived VCSH around 06z.

Otherwise, as cooler air continues to move in from the north and
dewpoint depressions drop, expecting MVFR cloud ceilings to affect
most terminals during the morning hours on Monday. Additionally,
by mid-day, a tightened pressure gradient will produce fairly
strong northwest surface winds. Gusts reaching into the 25-30kt
range will be possible, especially in central Kansas. VFR flight
conditions should return across the area during the latter half of
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  79  62  83 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      64  79  60  82 /  30  10   0   0
Newton          63  77  60  81 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        64  77  60  81 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   65  81  62  83 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         62  78  57  80 /  50  10   0   0
Great Bend      62  79  58  81 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          64  78  60  82 /  30  20   0   0
McPherson       64  78  60  81 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     67  80  63  84 /  20  20   0   0
Chanute         66  77  63  83 /  30  30   0   0
Iola            66  77  63  82 /  40  30  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  79  63  83 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...TAV


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