000
FXUS63 KICT 230337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1037 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front has made its way through Kansas and inhibited the
chances of any thunderstorm activity. A couple of showers and one
thunderstorm developed in Chautauqua County, but otherwise nothing
was able to form. The stratus across the southeast portions did
influence the lack of daytime heating to help aid any development.
In the mid and upper levels, a trough is positioned over the
Great Lakes into Hudson Bay while a ridge is over the western half
of the CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The above mentioned trough over the Great Lakes brings a
secondary wave which will likely stay east of the area for
Wednesday. An approaching onshore system off of the west coast
will move its way east on Wednesday. As this system continues
towards the Rockies into Thursday, there will be the potential for
development of thunderstorms along the frontal boundary in the
High Plains. This activity could track into central Kansas on
Thursday night. Better instability is west in the High Plains.
Temperatures are going to continue with highs in the 80s.

As mentioned in the previous discussion there are tropical
remnants from Harvey that gather steam before moving onshore on
Friday between South Padre to just north of Corpus Christi
depending on the chosen model. If you believe the GFS, this system
will quickly wind up; this model is certainly strengthens it much
greater than the ECMWF. Consistency in the models are noted
leading the National Hurricane Center to have a 90% chance of
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. The Gulf will open up
nicely in advance of this tropical activity which will pool
moisture into Kansas in time for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Loaded model blends are consisting on keeping chances of
precipitation through the weekend thanks to a southerly wave off
of the main low in Canada. This wave could lead to initiation of
thunderstorms this weekend. As this tropical system slowly moves
northeast, it maintaining its Texas roots through the weekend.
This system finally kicks out once the northern system gets enough
gusto at the first part of next week. Texas will be in for plenty
of water. Depending on the track of this system, there could be
an influence to Kansas, but likely this will not be the case as it
anticipated to stay off to the east. Persistent highs in the 80s
will keep on going through the rest of the forecast as well which
is certainly quite a way to end the month of August. The previous
forecast was in pretty good shape and only minor tweaks were made
to the precipitation chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Low VFR ceilings will remain at or just south of the KS/OK border
for a few more hours, before continuing to sink south. Otherwise,
sunny/clear skies expected all areas the next 24 hours. Winds
will be light northeast tonight, turning southeasterly and
strengthening a tad for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      56  83  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          57  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        58  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   59  83  59  85 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         55  86  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      56  85  59  85 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          57  85  58  86 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       56  83  58  84 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     60  83  58  84 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         57  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            57  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    59  82  59  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Juanita
SHORT TERM...Juanita
LONG TERM...Juanita
AVIATION...ADK