Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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438
FXUS63 KICT 121659
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1059 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will increase for tonight into Wednesday morning

- Mild above normal temperatures for Thursday-Saturday

- Another round of precipitation looks to arrive for early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Some fog has developed early this morning across northwest Kansas in
a light upslope flow regime. Looks like this will mainly stay west
of central Kansas. Otherwise, early morning satellite water vapor
imagery shows next weather system currently over southern Nevada.
This system will move east across Rockies today and reach western
Kansas tonight with decent moisture streaming northward. This will
generated scattered to numerous rain showers tonight along with some
thunderstorms over central/south central Kansas. The activity will
shift east into southeast Kansas by late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Severe weather is not expected given lower values of
elevated instability and less favorable wind shear for more
organized storms to develop. In addition, heavy rainfall is also not
anticipated given the speed of the upper level system moving east
across the central plains this period. Temperatures will remain
above normal for Thursday-Saturday with dry weather as upper level
ridging builds over the Heartland. South winds will become breezy on
Friday and Saturday as surface pressure gradient tightens up across
central Kansas.

Meanwhile a more pronounced and stronger weather system advertised
by the models looks to dive southward into the southwestern states
this weekend. The latest timing/evolution of this upper trough
ejecting out into the central plains by the models is favoring
Monday, however we are seeing some trends slowing this down a bit.
All model signals point to a tapping of much deeper Gulf of Mexico
moisture streaming northward from Texas into Kansas which would
result in widespread precipitation early next week for the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Main aviation concern will be increasing shower and storm
chances tonight.

Shortwave over the Four Corners region is expected to continue
tracking east and will bring shower and storm chances to the
region tonight. Will go ahead and introduce showers/storms at
KHUT-KICT-KSLN in the 05-06z time frame and KCNU around 10z. We
may also see some MVFR cigs accompany the precip tonight but
confidence is not high enough in IFR at this time. As the upper
wave tracks off to the east, winds will flip around to the
northwest by late Wed morning at most sites with some gusts in
the 30-35mph range likely for locations along and especially
west of I-135.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Gusty southerly winds will result in a very high grassland fire
danger for parts of central Kansas this afternoon. Winds will
shift to the northwest on Wednesday with much drier air
overspreading the area resulting in a very high grassland fire
danger for parts of central Kansas on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...MWM