Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270450
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Warm and humid conditions will continue across the region tonight
through Sun, as an upper ridge slowly moves across the region. this
will lead to temps well above normal for late May.  Return flow on
the west side of the ridge will probably lead to convection
developing across the high plains for Sun afternoon/evening, but
most of this convection will shift NE and stay well west of central
KS.  Another well above normal day is expected on Sunday.  Could see
some high clouds temper the max temps some, but still think some
locations may flirt with record highs (see climate section below).

The warm temps will continue for Memorial Day as well, but as the
ridge shifts a little further east, diurnally driven convective
chances will also shift a little east and possibly affect portions
of central KS by either Mon night or early Tue morning as the upper
ridge slowly flattens out.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Pattern looks to become more unsettled for Tue through Thu as the
mid level flow become more zonal.  As it flattens out, latest GFS
and ECMWF suggests that a weak frontal boundary will sag south
across portions of central KS and become somewhat stationary.
Moisture pooling along or over the top of boundary, will lead to
periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms for the evening hours,
which will probably evolve into MCS`s each night from Tue thru Thu
as weak impulses move through the zonal flow.

Even with the flow becoming more zonal, above normal temps will
continue through the end of May.

Medium range models suggest that the mid level ridge will try and
reestablish itself going into next weekend, with the above normal
temps continuing.  Could see some of the warmest temps of the season
move over the area by Fri/Sat.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

All areas maintain VFR status thru late Sun Night & likely beyond
as a massive mid-upper ridge covers the Midwest. S winds across C
& SC KS may reach ~15kts sustained with 20-25kt gusts from ~18Z
onward. SCT-BKN Cumulus ~5,000ft possible across SE KS from late
Sun morning onward.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Current max temp forecast for Sunday suggests that a couple of
record high temperatures could be jeopardy.  Here are the record
highs for May 27th:

Chanute:  Record: 92 set in 1927,  forecast high 93
Russell:  Record: 95 set in 2006,  forecast high 94
Wichita:  Record: 96 set in 1896,  forecast high 94
Salina:   Record: 98 set in 1895,  forecast high 96

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  94  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      67  93  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          68  93  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        68  92  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  92  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         66  94  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      66  92  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          68  95  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       67  94  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     68  93  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         67  93  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            67  92  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    68  93  68  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
CLIMATE...Ketcham


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