839
FXUS63 KICT 150006
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
706 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible across south central into
  southeast Kansas tonight into Sunday morning.

- Storm chances, especially at night, will continue into next week
with the best chances late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

- Much warmer temperatures expected for the end of next week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

An early morning MCS moved southeast into the area and lead to rain
and storms across much of central and eastern Kansas this morning.
Cloud cover and convection has caused temperatures to struggle
to warm up and it looks like we`ll have another day of highs
remaining slightly below normal for this time of year as highs
reach into the middle 80s areawide. As convection dissipated
from the lingering MCV, it left in its wake numerous outflow
boundaries across eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. The
environment will slowly rebound this afternoon with abundant
moisture and moderate instability across the KS/OK border. With
the introduction of the LLJ later tonight, strong to severe
storms look to develop across south- central and southeastern
Kansas that could produce some high winds, large hail, and an
isolated tornado. This activity will eventually congeal into
another MCS that will push southeastward out of the area during
the early morning hours on Sunday.

The ridge axis to our west will slowly shift eastward over the next
couple of days. Though some rain and storm chances are possible
during the overnight hours as convection over the High Plains
pushes eastward, chances will remain slightly lower on Sunday
night into Monday as the midlevel ridge is situated over the
Plains. Better chances for convection will move back into the
area on Tuesday with the approach of the next midlevel trough. A
corresponding surface low and associated frontal boundary will
traverse the Central Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night
bringing with it decent rain and storm chances. SPC currently
has portions of central and northern Kansas outlooked for severe
weather on their Day 4 forecast. This setup will need to be
monitored going forward.

Beyond our Tuesday night rain and storm chances, a ridge will build
back in behind this next system and usher in a drier and hotter
pattern. Temperatures through early weak will remain about normal
for this time of year. But underneath the stout ridge for the middle
and end of next week, temperatures will soar into the middle to
upper 90s. It`s even looking possible that some in the area will see
their first triple digit temperature for the year by Friday or
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The main concerns for this forecast period are the next round of
thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday morning and MVFR
ceilings Sunday morning. There could be a repeat of what
occurred this morning across central into southeast Kansas, but
there is uncertainty in the coverage and associated impact from
the activity which will likely be more isolated for the northern
sites (RSL, GBD and SLN) and more scattered across the southern
sites (HUT, ICT and CNU). A strong to severe storm in southern
Kansas cannot be ruled out with up to 70 mph winds and golf ball
sized possible. It was decided to keep the PROB30 given this
uncertainty in coverage as well as the window of time expected.
This may be refined with the next issuance. MVFR ceilings are
still anticipated particularly across southern Kansas during the
morning hours before scattering out in the late morning into
the afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...VJP