Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
438 FXUS63 KICT 121659 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will increase for tonight into Wednesday morning - Mild above normal temperatures for Thursday-Saturday - Another round of precipitation looks to arrive for early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Some fog has developed early this morning across northwest Kansas in a light upslope flow regime. Looks like this will mainly stay west of central Kansas. Otherwise, early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows next weather system currently over southern Nevada. This system will move east across Rockies today and reach western Kansas tonight with decent moisture streaming northward. This will generated scattered to numerous rain showers tonight along with some thunderstorms over central/south central Kansas. The activity will shift east into southeast Kansas by late tonight into Wednesday morning. Severe weather is not expected given lower values of elevated instability and less favorable wind shear for more organized storms to develop. In addition, heavy rainfall is also not anticipated given the speed of the upper level system moving east across the central plains this period. Temperatures will remain above normal for Thursday-Saturday with dry weather as upper level ridging builds over the Heartland. South winds will become breezy on Friday and Saturday as surface pressure gradient tightens up across central Kansas. Meanwhile a more pronounced and stronger weather system advertised by the models looks to dive southward into the southwestern states this weekend. The latest timing/evolution of this upper trough ejecting out into the central plains by the models is favoring Monday, however we are seeing some trends slowing this down a bit. All model signals point to a tapping of much deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming northward from Texas into Kansas which would result in widespread precipitation early next week for the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1059 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Main aviation concern will be increasing shower and storm chances tonight. Shortwave over the Four Corners region is expected to continue tracking east and will bring shower and storm chances to the region tonight. Will go ahead and introduce showers/storms at KHUT-KICT-KSLN in the 05-06z time frame and KCNU around 10z. We may also see some MVFR cigs accompany the precip tonight but confidence is not high enough in IFR at this time. As the upper wave tracks off to the east, winds will flip around to the northwest by late Wed morning at most sites with some gusts in the 30-35mph range likely for locations along and especially west of I-135. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Gusty southerly winds will result in a very high grassland fire danger for parts of central Kansas this afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest on Wednesday with much drier air overspreading the area resulting in a very high grassland fire danger for parts of central Kansas on Wednesday afternoon. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...RBL FIRE WEATHER...MWM