000
FXUS63 KICT 211145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
545 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Water vapor imagery shows the next shortwave to affect our area
tracking over the Great Basin with the shortwave that brought us
our rain/snow Fri, departing the northeast CONUS. At the surface,
lee troughing continues to strengthen.

Pressure gradient will continue to strengthen today as surface
low continues to deepen over eastern CO. This will result in
strong south winds by this afternoon, with sustained speeds 30 mph
common with gusts around 40 mph. Went ahead and ran with a wind
advisory for this afternoon and also extended it into the evening
as the gradient continues to strengthen. With the bulk of the
saturation in the low levels and good isentropic lift right off
the surface, confidence is high that we are looking at drizzle
late tonight, mainly for southeast KS.

By 12z Tue, vort max will extend from central Nebraska into NM
with surface low situated over north central Kansas. Winter precip
associated with deformation zone will primarily be over
Nebraska/northwest KS Tue morning. Much colder air will start to
spill into central KS Tue morning with the strong cold front
making it through the forecast area by early Tue evening. With the
bulk of the mid level saturation for cloud ice staying north and
west of the forecast area, feel that freezing drizzle maybe the
main concern as cold air quickly saturates the low levels. Not out
of the question to also get a few hours of snow as saturated low
levels get close to the -10c range Tue afternoon. Not planning on
running with a winter weather advisory at this time, but not out
of the question a few counties could be added to one in central KS
if the freezing drizzle potential continues to look decent.

Cold air doesn`t look to stick around too long as we get back to
seasonal temps by Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Models remain consistent in carving out a very pronounced upper
trough from Ontario down across the Plains Thu into Thu night.
This will allow a strong arctic front to push through the area
Thu. Confidence is low on how far west and how quick the cold air
will be to move out. At this time there is some model agreement
that the really cold arctic air will remain just northeast of the
forecast area Fri into Sat, but this could change as medium range
models get a better handle on airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Strong southerly winds will develop this morning and increase for
the afternoon hours, with high clouds streaming overhead during
the daytime hours. Meanwhile low clouds will increase across the
south central and eastern Kansas for tonight as low level moisture
increases. Could also see some wind shear with a strong low level
jet developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  39  42  21 /   0  10  20   0
Hutchinson      44  37  39  20 /  10  10  20  10
Newton          44  38  40  19 /   0  10  20  10
ElDorado        44  39  42  20 /   0  20  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   48  41  44  21 /   0  20  20   0
Russell         41  28  29  18 /  10  20  30  10
Great Bend      43  30  30  20 /  10  10  20  10
Salina          42  35  36  19 /  10  20  20  10
McPherson       43  37  39  19 /  10  10  20  10
Coffeyville     46  41  51  22 /   0  30  40  10
Chanute         44  39  49  20 /   0  30  50  10
Iola            43  38  47  20 /   0  30  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    45  40  50  21 /   0  30  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for
KSZ067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ