Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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256
FXUS63 KICT 150531
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1131 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Currently have shortwave trough lifting over the Northeast CONUS
with additional upper energy coming onshore over central CA. At
the surface, cold front extends from the Ohio Valley into
southeast OK.

Models currently agree on a lead piece of energy moving out of the
Four Corners region tonight and into KS by Sun morning. Ahead of
this impulse, isentropic lift will steadily increase tonight and
continue to ramp up into Sun afternoon. Still looking like we will
be lacking cloud ice across southern KS through most of Sun. This
should result in freezing drizzle for areas generally south of
Highway 50, starting as early as a couple hours after sunrise.
Further north, saturation should be higher, allowing for snow to
be the predominant precip type. Surface temps will obviously be
crucial Sun for ice accumulation and feel confident that most of
the area will be within a degree or two of 32 degrees. Even for
those areas that climb above 32, elevated surfaces will still be
cold enough for light ice formation. Current thinking is the most
likely time frame for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
will be during the day Sun, with a decrease in coverage possible
Sun evening. Further north, north of Highway 50, periods of light
snow will be possible Sun, with a couple inches of accumulation
possible.

Models continue the trend of this system coming out in two phases,
with the main vort max moving across the area late Sun night
through Mon. By 12z Mon both ECMWF and GFS agree on this feature
moving out across the TX/OK Panhandles and sliding across northern
OK/southern KS during the day Mon. This piece of energy will
bring our best chance to see a more traditional deformation zone
banded snow. Both the ECMWF and GFS set this band up after 12z
Mon, generally along the KS Turnpike. Woldn`t be shocked if this
band produced a quick couple inches of snow during the day Mon,
and maybe the Wichita and south central KS best chance for
accumulating snow. NAM is currently the outlier with regards to
QPF and that seems reasonable. However, the 12z ECMWF did come in
quite a big higher with QPF compared to the GFS with the ECMWF
being fairly consistent with this solution the last few runs. So
not ready to completely discount some of these ECMWF qpf values
just yet. Will be something to keep an eye on.

Did not change much in the way of snow or ice accumulations with
generally 2-4 inch range for snow and less than a quarter inch of
ice for southern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

Still looking like upper ridging will slide over the area for Tue
through Thu, shutting off precip chances. Both ECMWF and GFS move
another shortwave out into the Plains by Fri. However, the GFS is
much further north with this wave compared to the ECMWF. With
confidence so low, will keep pops out of the forecast at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

**Snow, freezing drizzle, and low clouds to impact aviation
 through Monday**

Latest satellite imagery shows an area of low stratus building
east from western into central Kansas. Surface obs beneath this
stratus have fallen into the MVFR/IFR category across western
Kansas and a similar reduction in CIGs is expected over the next
6-12 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. In
addition, areas of light snow and freezing drizzle/freezing rain
will likely develop during that same time frame. Wintry
precipitation should continue into much of the day Sunday, before
drier air leads to a temporary lull in precip by Sunday evening.
During this lull, I can`t completely rule out some BR development
beneath the lingering low clouds. It should be noted that the
precip type through Sunday afternoon looks to remain mostly snow
across central KS, with predominantly freezing drizzle further
south.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: After a lull in precip Sunday evening, a second
wave of precipitation is expected to develop over western or
southwestern Kansas Sunday night, spreading east through Monday.
Model guidance appears to be shifting the focus of this band south
just a bit which could put the greatest aviation impacts south of
I-70. Stay tuned for updates as IFR/LIFR conditions will likely
occur wherever this band develops.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    28  33  21  34 /  40  50  50  50
Hutchinson      24  30  18  34 /  30  50  50  50
Newton          25  31  19  32 /  50  60  50  50
ElDorado        27  33  21  32 /  50  60  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   29  36  23  35 /  30  40  40  40
Russell         21  29  16  34 /  40  60  40  50
Great Bend      22  29  16  34 /  30  60  40  40
Salina          23  30  17  33 /  50  70  40  50
McPherson       24  30  18  32 /  50  60  50  50
Coffeyville     30  39  26  36 /  30  50  60  50
Chanute         28  35  23  32 /  30  60  60  60
Iola            27  34  23  31 /  50  60  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    29  38  25  33 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RM



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