Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
528 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

Currently have a broad upper trough extending from the Rockies to
the Ohio Valley, with the main vort max tracking over the
southeastern CONUS. Meanwhile a much weaker piece of energy is
tracking south across the central Rockies. At the surface, cold
front stretches across northern Nebraska and is continuing to
track south.

Light snow will be possible over western KS as the upper impulse
continues to sink south over the Rockies. Some of this may make it
into the western fringes of the forecast area with flurries also
possible as the much colder air continues to spill into the area.
A cold-blustery day will be on tap today as north winds pick up
behind the cold front. Good news is that below normal temps will
not last long as we get into some downslope flow Fri which will
return temps back to seasonal normals. Warming trend looks to
continue into the weekend with upper 50s to around 60 not out of
the question Sunday for southwest parts of the forecast area.
However, a drastic change will be underway to start the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

There has been good model agreement over the last few days of a
very deep-closed upper low sinking south out of Canada and
tracking over the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes by
Tue. This will result in the coldest air of the season affecting
the northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley. By Wed,
medium range models are showing 850mb temps four standard
deviations below normal over the upper/middle Mississippi
Valley/Great Lakes. This would typically be record territory. The
big question will be how far west the really cold air makes it for
the Mon-Wed time frame. For now will definitely go well below
normal but not out of the question temps are dropped with later
forecasts, especially for Wed. While some flurries will be
possible with the surges of Arctic air, we are not looking at any
significant snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Jan 24 2019

Mid-level clouds will lower for this morning and afternoon to
around 4000-5000ft cigs, as an upper level wave moves through the
region. North winds will increase then diminish around sunset and
switch around to the south for tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  16  45  24 /  10   0  10   0
Hutchinson      29  16  44  24 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          30  14  43  23 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        32  13  43  24 /  10  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   34  16  44  24 /  10   0  10   0
Russell         27  16  43  23 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      28  17  45  24 /  20   0   0   0
Salina          26  12  43  24 /  10  10  10   0
McPherson       28  14  43  23 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     36  12  42  24 /  10   0  10   0
Chanute         33   9  41  22 /  10  10  10   0
Iola            32   8  40  22 /  10  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    34  11  41  22 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ


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