282
FXUS63 KICT 121834
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
134 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions this week, with potential for record
  high temperatures on Wednesday.

- Chances for showers and storms return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates a negatively-
tilted trough situated over the southeast CONUS as a mid/upper wave
arrives onshore in the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, southerly
winds have been observed over most of Kansas as a surface low exits
to the east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. These winds
will continue to support seasonably warm high temperatures in the
low to middle 80s through Tuesday as the upper ridge builds in.

Downslope surface flow is anticipated to commence late Wednesday
morning through the afternoon hours as a dryline/PAC front moves
eastward through the region. The associated shortwave is progged to
eject out of the Rockies and into Nebraska, and while moisture will
remain well to our north, above-normal to near-record high
temperatures are expected across central and south central Kansas.
Though models largely carry values in the upper 80s and low 90s for
now, current thinking is highs could overperform and reach the mid
90s along and west of I-135, with some locations near the Kansas-
Oklahoma border approaching 100 degrees.

Seasonably warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s will persist
through the end of the week. Attention then turns toward the
weekend, when models begin to strong southwesterly flow back to the
Central Plains along with the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the details of
this upcoming storm system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR will prevail over the upcoming period. Southerly winds will
increase into the 15-20 knot range over parts of central KS this
afternoon while remaining light over south central and southeast
Kansas. Southerly winds will increase some over the area as we
move into the day on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Record High Temperature Information for May 14th:

Site:      Forecast:      Record:

Wichita      95           94 (2018)

Salina       95          101 (1941)

Chanute      87           91 (2022)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...BRF/JWK