Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131905
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
105 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 104 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

The main challenge in the short term will be tonight`s temperatures.
Unlike last night, the main area of concern will be SE Kansas where
the mid and upper level ridge looks to set up shop tonight.  This
will provide a strong subsidence inversion over the region which
will allow the winds to calm out tonight.  The main difference
between tonight and last night in Central Kansas is there will be
some loss of snow cover in SE Kansas.  This loss will temper the
temperatures but it may not prevent temperatures from approaching
record territory in Southeast Kansas tonight.  Depending on how much
snow is left today, some records could be in jeopardy.

Wednesday temperatures will also be tricky.  Snow cover will again
keep temperatures in check but we are also likely to lose much of
the snow cover tomorrow.  Areas that lose the snow cover tomorrow
early will likely climb into the 40s while areas with snow cover
will likely stay in the mid and upper 30s.

Thursday and Friday will continue to see continued dry conditions
and clear skies.  Temperatures will rebound nicely on these two days
and we will actually approach normal temperatures for this time of
year.  These warmer temperatures will feel quite nice in comparison
to what the region has experience over the past few days.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

The extended range looks to get a little active once again as
another cold front looks to move through the region.  Return flow
ahead front does not look strong enough to allow for significant
rain ahead of this system.  However, both the ECMWF and the GFS
families indicate some mid level energy will be pushing through the
region behind the front.  This set up indicates the chance for
another rain/snow event for the weekend.  Confidence remains low at
this time as the ECMWF and the GFS families do not agree on the
location or intensity yet but the chances for another winter weather
event are present for this weekend and cannot be ruled out.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Excellent flying weather will prevail through the 24-hr period
with light winds and VFR anticipated.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    14  41  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      15  43  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          14  40  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        13  39  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   15  41  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         18  46  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      19  47  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          17  44  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       15  43  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     12  41  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         12  39  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            12  40  20  47 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    12  40  20  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...MWM



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