Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 241158
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Low pressure area continues to spin across south central NE at this
time, with a cold front associated with the low swinging southeast
across portions of central and south central KS early this morning.
Expect the front to continue to make progress into SE KS later this
morning, with a few showers and even a few thunderstorms still
possible for areas east of the KS Turnpike. Could even see some
patchy fog just ahead of the front for a few hours. Most of the
showers will shift east of the area by mid morning, with possibly
some lingering showers over southeast KS. Downslope effects on the
west and southwest side of the low will still lead to max
temperatures similar to yesterday. Could see a few diurnally
driven showers, during max heating this afternoon across NE KS, in
the cyclonic curvature, but think these will stay northeast of
the forecast area.

Expect cooler air to advect south across most of the area by tonight
into Monday, with temperatures slightly below seasonal normals for
Mon.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Not expecting the cooler temps to last long, as mid level ridging
builds over the plains. This will lead to a warming trend for
Tue/Wed as breezy south-southwest winds return to the area.  May
have to keep an eye on Wed as breezy conditions may lead to some
elevated fire weather concerns (see the fire section below).
Latest GFS and a to a lessor degree the ECMWF, show a weak
shortwave will trek across the area for Wed through Thu. Moisture
quality seems a little lacking as it moves across the area, but
may be enough for some scattered showers.

Lots of uncertainty on how the end of the week will play out. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show a cold front will push south on Thu night,
with a chance of post frontal showers and a few thunderstorm. Latest
GFS is coming around to the ECMWF solution of pushing the front
south across the area on Fri. The question mark is how much cold air
gets pulled south behind the cold front with the ECMWF stronger with
the colder air.  As the colder air moves south, some lingering
moisture may actually lead to a mix of rain/snow for late Fri or
early Sat, especially for areas east of the KS Turnpike.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

The only concern(s) early this morning are those of "low-end" MVFR
stratocu wrapping around a weakening sfc low that at 12Z was
situated over extreme SE Nebraska. The MVFR cigs would be confined
to Nrn, Ern & SE KS. Cigs would gradually lift to near 3,000ft by
~17Z with all areas VFR thereafter, although cigs ~4,000ft would
cover most of C KS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Breezy conditions and dry weather will return to the area for
Tuesday thru Thursday, which will lead to the grassland fire danger
again climbing into the very high category for Tuesday afternoon and
certainly by Wednesday afternoon.  Could even see some grassland
fire danger values climb into the extreme category for Wednesday
afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  43  57  39 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      64  42  56  38 /   0   0  10   0
Newton          62  42  54  37 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        64  43  56  37 /   0   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  43  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         60  40  55  37 /   0  10  10  10
Great Bend      62  40  55  37 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          61  42  54  37 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       62  42  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
Coffeyville     70  45  58  38 /  10   0  10  10
Chanute         67  45  56  38 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            65  45  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  45  57  38 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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