Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230810
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Overnight high plains convection is slowly dropping south across wrn
KS, or diminishing as it pushes east into central KS. Could see a
few showers possibly make it into central KS by sunrise, but think
most of the showers will end during the late morning hours.  NW flow
will remain on control for today and Tue, as a ridge of high
pressure moves across the northern plains.

Upslope flow in this regime, will push most of the convective
chances well west of the area into the high plains for late this
afternoon into this evening.  Most of the convection expected to
develop over the high plains will drop S-SE in the prevailing flow
towards KDDC.

The dry and cooler weather is expected to continue on Tue as return
flow on the backside of the surface ridge pushes convective chances
well to the NW of the forecast area into western Neb.  The Neb
storms will probably evolve into some sort of SE moving complex of
storms late Tue night, which could clip portions of central KS by
Wed morning, so will include a small pop for this chance.

The NW flow and ridge of high pressure will lead to max temperatures
closer to seasonal normals for both today and Tue, but drier air
pushing in from the north will also lead to less humid conditions.

Pattern looks to become alot more unsettled for Wed through Sat, as
low level moisture gradually increases across KS, and as a quasi
stationary boundary drops into central KS for Wed afternoon. By Wed
afternoon, instability and convergence increases along the front for
a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing across most of the
central KS by Wed afternoon/evening.  Bulk shear of 45-55 kts and a
moderately unstable airmass suggests strong to severe storms will be
possible for Wed evening across central KS.

Expect the convection to grow upscale into a convective complex
(MCS) for Wed night, with this complex expected to dive south-
southeast across the western sections of the forecast area. As the
complex pushes south, think it will lose some of its punch, as it
outruns the better bulk shear across central KS, but certainly
some strong storms look possible.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

Some uncertainty on how Thu will evolve and Wed nights MCS will
possibly push the synoptic front further south of the forecast area
for Thu afternoon, which may lead to a lull in the convective.
chances for Thu afternoon. ECMWF suggests this scenario playing out,
while the GFS keeps chances around.

The active weather pattern looks to continue for Fri-Sat, as the
main frontal boundary pushes back into the forecast area, and stalls
over central Kansas. Expecting evening and nighttime convective
complexes to develop over the forecast area both nights, as the low
level jet increases both nights with increasing moisture transport.
Increasing bulk shear and moderate instability also suggests that
the forward propagating complex of storms may also produce large
hail and damaging winds early its life cycle, with an ever
increasing chance of damaging winds both nights as the cold pool
increases.

As the moisture transport increases, precipitable water values
increase to 150-180 percent of normal, which suggests a heavy
rainfall threat both nights.  Given recent heavy rainfalls across
portions of central KS, could see increasing chances for localized
flooding and possible river flooding by the weekend.  Progressive
nature of the Fri night MCS chance suggests mainly a localized
flooding threat for most of southern KS where rainfall still run 5
to 20 inches below normal, but a bigger flash flooding threat may
exist for Sat night, as the low level jet may become parallel to
the mid level flow, which may create training of the convection.
stay tuned.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs
as surface high pressure continues to dominate over central and
eastern Kansas. Light easterly winds will switch to the north
during the late morning and afternoon hours on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  70  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      88  69  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          89  69  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        89  68  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   89  69  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         89  67  89  66 /  20   0   0  10
Great Bend      88  67  89  65 /  20   0  10  10
Salina          90  69  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       88  68  89  64 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     90  68  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         89  68  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            89  68  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    89  69  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ


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