Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 242335
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Stationary front currently extends from eastern Nebraska to near
KICT and into the TX Panhandle. Airmass east of this feature
remains extremely moist with PW values around 175%-200% of normal
with dewpoints around 70. 850mb moisture transport into the
boundary has allowed sct convection to persist early this
afternoon along the front. Should see an increase in activity
later this afternoon as low level moisture continues to work back
to the northwest and 850-700mb moisture transport continues to
ramp up with retreating boundary allowing for maximum convergence.

Confidence is increasing that we are in for yet another round of
heavy rain late this afternoon and especially this evening for
areas generally along the Turnpike into the Flint Hills. Obviously
with antecedent conditions, flash flooding will be likely with
the extreme rainfall rates we are expecting. With CAPE values in
the 2,000/3,000J/KG range and 0-6km bulk shear 30-40kts, large
hail will be possible with stronger storms this afternoon and
tonight. Would like to rule out tornado threat, but with very
high 0-3km CAPE, very low LCLs and a boundary floating around,
cant` rule out a couple brief tornadoes into the early evening
hours.

Surface boundary, along with rich moisture, will work back to the
west tonight into Sat, with the front making it all the way back
to near the KS/CO border. Current thinking is that the bulk of the
daytime convection Sat will be out over western KS, where pesky
boundary will be situated. Models agree on rapid increase in
moisture transport early Sat evening into southwest KS which will
result in a large MCS developing and tracking east Sat night. With
this, will continue Flash Flood Watch through Sat night. Best
chance for daytime severe storms Sat affecting our forecast area,
would be for something to develop along the warm front as it
lifts northwest, which would affect generally the northwest
portion of our forecast area.

Sun looks like a repeat of Sat, at least for location of
convection. Should see daytime development over western KS where
boundary will be floating around. In addition, there looks to be
decent model agreement some shortwave energy lifting out of NM.
Anything that develops out west Sun will also work east Sun night
into Mon morning, affecting much of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

By Tue morning, main upper low is expected to be situated in the
southwest Nebraska/northeast CO area and is expected to lift
northeast Tue afternoon. Cold front is expected to stretch
generally along the Turnpike Tue afternoon and will provide a
chance for at least some sct convection Tue afternoon into Tue
evening. Looks to be some agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in
finally pushing the boundary and moist airmass south and east of
the area for Wed into the end of the work week, which would
finally bring an end to day after day of flooding and severe
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Main aviation concern will be storm trends.

Currently expecting storms to continue for the next few hours for
areas generally along and southeast of the KS Turnpike with heavy
rain and strong winds the main threats. Should see an overall
decrease in areal coverage after 03z with southeast KS having the
best chance later tonight. Expecting a lull in activity for most
of Sat with daytime storms developing over western KS with a large
complex of storms moving into the area after 00z Sun.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

There will be an enhanced risk for flash flooding from now through
the evening hours for areas generally along the KS Turnpike into
the Flint Hills. This is where the best low level moisture
convergence will be situated as the surface front lifts back to
the northwest. Rainfall rates into the evening hours will easily
be over 1.5 inches per hour with rates up to 3 inches per hour not
out of the question. Should see a lull in flash flood potential
during the day Sat, with the better focus shifting to western KS.
However, the MCS that forms over western KS will track east Sat
evening and will bring additional flooding threat first to the
areas west of I-135 early Sat evening and further east later Sat
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  81  66  82 /  90  20  60  20
Hutchinson      65  82  64  82 /  60  20  60  30
Newton          65  81  65  81 /  80  20  70  30
ElDorado        67  80  65  81 /  90  20  70  30
Winfield-KWLD   67  81  67  82 /  80  20  60  20
Russell         62  83  60  81 /  20  30  60  30
Great Bend      63  82  61  82 /  20  30  60  30
Salina          66  82  62  83 /  20  20  60  30
McPherson       65  82  64  82 /  40  20  60  30
Coffeyville     70  82  69  84 /  50  30  50  30
Chanute         69  81  67  83 /  50  30  60  40
Iola            69  81  67  82 /  50  30  70  50
Parsons-KPPF    70  82  68  84 /  50  30  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ049>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
morning for KSZ047-048.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
HYDROLOGY...RBL



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