


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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282 FXUS63 KICT 121834 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 134 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and dry conditions this week, with potential for record high temperatures on Wednesday. - Chances for showers and storms return this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates a negatively- tilted trough situated over the southeast CONUS as a mid/upper wave arrives onshore in the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, southerly winds have been observed over most of Kansas as a surface low exits to the east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. These winds will continue to support seasonably warm high temperatures in the low to middle 80s through Tuesday as the upper ridge builds in. Downslope surface flow is anticipated to commence late Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours as a dryline/PAC front moves eastward through the region. The associated shortwave is progged to eject out of the Rockies and into Nebraska, and while moisture will remain well to our north, above-normal to near-record high temperatures are expected across central and south central Kansas. Though models largely carry values in the upper 80s and low 90s for now, current thinking is highs could overperform and reach the mid 90s along and west of I-135, with some locations near the Kansas- Oklahoma border approaching 100 degrees. Seasonably warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s will persist through the end of the week. Attention then turns toward the weekend, when models begin to strong southwesterly flow back to the Central Plains along with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the details of this upcoming storm system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 VFR will prevail over the upcoming period. Southerly winds will increase into the 15-20 knot range over parts of central KS this afternoon while remaining light over south central and southeast Kansas. Southerly winds will increase some over the area as we move into the day on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Record High Temperature Information for May 14th: Site: Forecast: Record: Wichita 95 94 (2018) Salina 95 101 (1941) Chanute 87 91 (2022) && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM CLIMATE...BRF/JWK