Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 242331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
531 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

Tonight-Thursday:
While surface ridge axis will be moving across the area,
increasing upper jet will result in increasing midlevel clouds
tonight and into Thursday. Trended temperatures up a bit in the
south where there should be fewer clouds.

Thursday night-Friday:
Upper trough moves through Thursday night. Held onto a tiny area
of low chances of rain in far southeast KS, but chances are
looking slim. On Friday will get a brief upper ridging followed
quickly by approaching trough. With split/diffluent upper flow,
significant cirrus is likely, but not as sure about the amount of
850MB moisture being advertised by models. Confidence in
temperatures Friday during the day is low.

Saturday:
Forecast is a bit more straight forward with good dry/downslope
700MB flow during the day. Bumped initialization maximum
temperatures up to NBM median values. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

Considerably better agreement between 1200 UTC GFS/ECMWF compared
to last night at least through Tuesday. Whether this is
coincidence or actual converging of solutions remains to be seen,
however have trended forecast this direction.

This period starts will development of a cut off low in AZ, with
northern energy moving off to the east. Not very optimistic about
low chance of precipitation Sunday, with only ECMWF showing
precipitation in the area, which appears generous given its mass
fields. Both weaken and eject cutoff low across OK by Tuesday.
1200 UTC ECMWF spreads precipitation over southeastern half of
forecast area Monday night-Tuesday, while GFS with weaker more
southern track of cut off low keeps forecast area dry. NBM was
much more generous spatially with chance of precipitation, and
inconsistent with little in the way of sky cover (generally less
than 20 percent) at the same time. After collaboration with
neighboring offices, trimmed back precipitation chances and also
increased sky cover mainly in southeast KS. Both show front moving
through on Wednesday, but given model run to run variations, not
particularly optimistic on this. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021

Winds will become light and variable as high pressure settles
across the region overnight. We`ll see increasing mid and high
level clouds, however VFR is anticipated across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    29  48  29  50 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson      27  46  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          27  46  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        28  48  30  50 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   29  50  31  51 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         26  45  25  53 /   0  10   0   0
Great Bend      26  45  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          26  47  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       26  46  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     29  50  31  50 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         28  48  30  48 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            28  46  29  48 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    29  49  31  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM


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