Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 141140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
540 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low lifting into
southeast OK/sw AR with a shortwave trough tracking across
southwest Ontario into the northeast CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure extends from the western Great Lakes down into central
TX.

Upper low is expected to track across southern AR today as lee
troughing strengthening over the high Plains. This will turn winds
around to the west and southwest with this downslope helping bump
temps up quite a bit from where they were the last two days.
However, highs today will still be around 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. There is good model agreement in a fast moving impulse
moving out of southern Saskatchewan and across the northern Plains
late tonight into Thu morning. This feature will push a weak
surface trough into the forecast area Thu which will also help
maintain a westerly component to the surface winds. This will help
keep a warming trend in place for the end of the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

ECMWF and GFS agree well on digging a more robust trough over the
northwest CONUS on Fri into Fri night, extending from the Central
Great Basin into the northern Mississippi Valley by Sat. This will
allow for another very cold airmass to surge south across the
Plains for the Fri through Sat time frame. Cold front should enter
northern KS late Fri night and exit southern KS by early Sat
evening. Should also be a band of snow that follows behind the front
and will be tied to a mid level baroclinic zone. While it doesn`t
look like a significant snow event, it`s not out of the question
for some spots to get more than just a trace. Temps on Sat will
obviously hinge on the timing of the front but confidence is very
high in well below normal temps for Sun with highs not making it
out of the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Excellent weather continues across KS thru Thu as a nearly stacked
low pressure center, that at issuance was centered over ARKLATEX,
keeps all adverse weather well to the SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  24  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      40  25  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          39  24  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        37  22  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   38  23  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         46  27  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      45  26  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          41  24  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       40  24  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     36  20  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         35  20  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            36  20  47  29 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    35  20  48  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS


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