488
FXUS63 KICT 120537
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1237 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and gusty northerly winds will prevail
  for today.

- Very High to Extreme Fire Danger is expected for Thursday
  afternoon with strong southwest winds and warmer temperatures.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected through Saturday, with
  another cool down and isolated precip chances for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently, the upper level trough axis extends across the High
Plains with the surface low situated over the Great Lakes region. A
corresponding frontal boundary is draped from Michigan into the
Southern Plains. For us, much cooler air has filtered into the
region behind the front with brisk north-northwesterly winds. A few
showers still linger across far eastern Kansas with mostly cloudy
skies for south-central and southeast Kansas. As the frontal
boundary pushes eastward through the day, rain and clouds will clear
from west to east. Some sunshine is expected later this afternoon
and temperatures will reach only into the lower 50s for most. Winds
will stay breezy through the day with gusts between 30-35 mph
possible. For locations that did not see rain last night,
specifically across central Kansas, the gusty winds and dry
conditions will lead to areas of Very High Fire Danger. Though, the
cooler temperatures may help to limit fire concerns some.

For Thursday, the trough will race quickly off to the east and
strong northwesterly flow will set up over the region. Increasing
heights and strong WAA will allow for temperatures to warm into the
60s and close to 70 degrees in central Kansas. A strengthening low
pressure system in the Northern Plains will create a tight pressure
gradient against the surface high to our south. This will lead to
strong southwesterly winds areawide with gusts between 35-45 mph
during the afternoon. These conditions will lead to widespread Very
High to Extreme Fire Danger, especially across central and south-
central Kansas where a Red Flag Warning has been issued.

For Friday and Saturday, ridging will continue to build in
supporting a quiet weather pattern with a corresponding warm-up.
Temperatures on Friday will reach into the 60s for most with
temperatures on Saturday topping out in the lower to middle 70s.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected. By Sunday, a
rapidly deepening trough will dig into the Plains bringing with it
light rain and snow chances for the day Sunday. Temperatures will
fall in the wake of this system with highs on Sunday and Monday
falling below normal once again. With spring on our doorstep, these
cool downs will continue to be shorter lived and as such,
temperatures will rebound back above normal by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs, however winds will
begin to ramp up quickly over central Kansas by mid-late
morning, then expand southeast during the afternoon. Very
strong southwest winds with gusts of 40 to 50mph are expected
over central/south central Kansas from late morning through the
afternoon hours. The winds will begin to decrease around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Very high fire danger will continue to affect central Kansas this
afternoon with gusty northerly winds and dry air. Thursday remains
the day of focus for dangerous fire weather conditions. Very strong
southwest winds, warm temperatures, and low RH values will create
Very High to Extreme Fire Danger across central and south-central
Kansas. Sustained southwest winds between 25 to 35 mph and gusts up
to 45 mph will impact the area. Despite recent rains across portions
of the area, the warmer temperatures and gusty winds can dry out
fuels quickly. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Fire
Weather Warning and is in effect from noon till 8pm tomorrow. Any
fires that develop tomorrow afternoon will have the potential to
spread quickly and behave erratically.

We could see very high fire danger again for Sunday afternoon with
strong northerly winds, however that fire weather risk will
depend on the arrival time of colder air and any potential
precipitation. If the colder air moves in sooner or if
widespread showers materialize, this could lower the fire
weather risk.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...AMD