Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS63 KICT 171134
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

A series of subtle shortwave troughs will move across the Central
Plains today through Thursday and will bring multiple chances for
storms to portions of central and southern Kansas. Widespread rain
is not expected but locally heavy rain will be possible for anyone
who does see a storm.

Today there will likely be lingering convection from a morning MCS
that is expected move across south central Kansas early this
morning. As instability and moisture increase, weakening storms
may begin to refire somewhere over south-central or southeast
Kansas during the mid to late morning period. Can`t rule out a few
severe storms from this due to a leftover weak MCV that will be
crossing the area just behind the storms. The MCV would provide an
increase in shear, which could lead towards large hail.

For this afternoon and evening the chance for storms will heavily
weigh on how the morning convection plays out. If convection is
stronger it could overwork the atmosphere and keep us capped. If
the atmosphere destabilizes, then there will be potential for
isolated severe storms. Capping may still be an issue even if the
atmosphere destabilizes, but as the subtle shortwave moves across
the area it may provide enough lift to get storms going. Overall,
confidence is low in isolated storms, but the main threats would be
large hail and damaging winds. Confidence is higher in the
development of an MCS in southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas
where strong moisture transport will meet an unstable environment
and a weak cold front for forcing. This cluster of storms is
expected to progress southeastward and may move into southeast
Kansas late this evening and overnight. Damaging winds would be the
main threat with this line of storms.

Another impulse is expected to move across Kansas Wednesday into
Thursday, which may kick off another MCS over western Kansas. Shear
and instability are marginal at best so confidence is low in an MCS
maintaining itself this far east. By Thursday evening a much deeper
trough will begin to dig out of the Pacific Northwest and move into
the Northern Plains. A shortwave will race out ahead of the main
energy but the best forcing will be further north so rain chances
remain low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

A trough is expected to move out of the northern Rocky Mountains and
into the northern Central Plains Friday into Saturday. Models have
trended further west with this trough but is still progressive and
positively tilted. Confidence is increasing on precipitation
chances in southeast Kansas due to the slower trends. If the trend
continues confidence in precipitation chances will continue to
increase. Models begin to differ towards the beginning of the week.
The GFS holds energy back and forms another trough Sunday night into
Monday. This would bring another chance for rain to the region. The
Canadian and Euro don`t hold any energy back and end up much
shallower with the trough. In this scenario better forcing would be
further north and precip chances would be low. Trends will need to
be watched to see whether or not energy gets left behind from the
first trough.

Williams

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

A complex of thunderstorms is currently moving across the Flint
Hills and southeast KS at this time, with some lingering TSRA even
as far back as KICT. So will go with prevailing SHRA and VCTS for
the KCNU and KICT for a few more hours this morning.

Expect VFR conditions later this morning for all locations. For the
late afternoon and evening hours, there is a chance of SHRA/TSRA
developing across northern KS and NE KS.  Some of this activity may
clip portions of central KS. So will include a VCTS for the KSLN and
KRSL tafs for this chance.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  65  84  62 /  20  10   0  10
Hutchinson      87  63  83  59 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          84  64  82  60 /  30  20   0  10
ElDorado        83  65  82  61 /  30  20   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  67  87  63 /  30  10   0  10
Russell         89  60  83  58 /  20  30   0   0
Great Bend      90  60  83  58 /  10  20   0   0
Salina          85  63  84  58 /  30  30   0   0
McPherson       86  63  82  58 /  20  20   0   0
Coffeyville     81  68  87  65 /  50  20  10  20
Chanute         81  66  85  63 /  40  30  10  10
Iola            81  65  84  62 /  40  30  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    81  67  87  64 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRW
LONG TERM...CRW
AVIATION...Ketcham


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.