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000
FXUS63 KICT 290454
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1154 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

As expected the modest instability/precipitable water axis has
shifted eastward across central Kansas into the Flint Hills with
the upper shortwave lifting out across the northern Plains.
Elevated convection has developed over the Flint Hills this
afternoon on the eastern edge of this moisture flux. An apparent
mesoscale pv anomaly over the Oklahoma panhandle, which was not
handled well by the 12z short term models, should focus another
area of stronger surface based convection thru the late
afternoon. This will likely develop into an MCS which is expected
to move east-southeastward along the OK/KS border region through
the evening. Widely scattered convection is expected in between
the aforementioned convective areas through the late afternoon
and evening across the rest of central and south central Kansas.
There is a narrow zone of modest bulk shear of 25-30 kts across
western portions of the forecast area, so a strong to marginally
severe storm is possible late this afternoon. Very weak, yet
perturbed flow aloft continues Monday through Tuesday with the GFS
and NAM remaining somewhat similar (though differing still on
timing and placement) in depicting mesoscale vorticity center(s)
moving slowly east-southeastward across the Kansas/northern
Oklahoma region. Though subject to their development/movement,
plan to show the relatively better precip/convective chances in
concert with the now progged pv anomaly/lift and higher PWAT
values. The relatively weak shear and moderate instability combo
will continue to lend to pulse-type marginally strong storms with
the main risk being heavy downpours and localized minor flooding.
Temperatures should continue to average near or slightly above
climo with the warmest daytime readings in central Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

The weather pattern will remain relatively unsettled for the end
of the week into the start of next weekend with more of an
influence from shortwave upper trofs ejecting from the Southwest
conus into the Plains. Temperatures should continue to average
above climo with daily precip/convective chances, though daily
trends/timing are somewhat subjective for now.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Predictability is low regarding shower/thunderstorm chances and
coverage overnight, given weak forcing and weak flow aloft.
However, a weak upper wave approaching from the west in concert
with a modest low-level jet amidst seasonable precipitable waters
may allow hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm activity to fester
across the region through the night. Given the high uncertainty,
did not include VCTS in the 06z TAF issuance.

For Monday...additional hit-or-miss showers/storms are expected
across the region, as another weak wave approaches from the west
amidst a weakly capped and seasonable PW airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  81  63  84 /  20  40  20  20
Hutchinson      61  82  61  85 /  20  30  20  20
Newton          62  81  62  84 /  20  40  20  20
ElDorado        62  81  62  82 /  30  50  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   62  81  62  83 /  30  50  30  30
Russell         59  84  61  88 /  50  20  20  10
Great Bend      59  83  60  87 /  30  20  20  10
Salina          62  83  62  87 /  50  30  20  20
McPherson       61  82  61  85 /  20  30  20  20
Coffeyville     61  82  62  81 /  20  40  30  50
Chanute         61  82  62  81 /  20  40  30  50
Iola            61  81  62  81 /  20  40  30  50
Parsons-KPPF    61  81  63  81 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK