Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202339
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

A cold front was stretching across southern Nebraska this afternoon
and extended west and southwest across the high plains of
northwest Kansas. North of the front, afternoon temperatures were
in the 70s and 80s. This front is progged to move slowly
southward tonight and is handled fairly well by the various
available model guidance, most of which just brush the northwest
corner of the forecast area by 12Z with much of the area remaining
in the prefrontal airmass. Storms developing across the high
plains this evening will move eastward tonight and are expected to
diminish prior to reaching our forecast area although low pops
are gradually introduced across much of central Kansas as we
progress through the overnight period. Often times the front
and/or outflow boundary will be driven further south and east when
compared to the various model guidance.

With the front remaining north and west of the bulk of our forecast
area as we start the day on Sunday, one more hot and sultry day
is likely for many locations and the excessive heat warning will
be extended for portions of south central and all of southeast KS
during the day on Sunday. Low level southwesterly flow will likely
result in deeper mixing/advection of drier air across much of
south central KS which may limit maximum heat indices, but as the
sfc low/frontal boundary approach late in the period, low level
flow may back allowing some pooling of the low level moisture with
enough confidence to extend the heat warning across portions of
the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and behind the sagging frontal boundary as the
mid/upper ridge breaks down through the period. The best chance
for storms may remain along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. A few
strong to marginally severe storms with gusty winds may be
possible through the evening hours before the pbl stabilizes. Low
level moisture transport would favor mainly southeast KS through
the evening hours or until around 06Z before activity dissipates
or propagates away from the area.

Mon-Tue...A dry post-frontal stable regime is anticipated as we
head into the work week with unseasonably cool temperatures.
Afternoon highs through the period are only expected to climb into
the lower 80s for many areas which is around 10 degrees below
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Temperatures will slowly moderate as we move through the week with
highs returning to climate normals toward the weekend. The
mid/upper ridge is progged to remain across the Southwest/Rockies
leaving the Central Plains states in northwest mid/upper flow.
This is expected to result in seasonable temperatures and mostly
dry weather conditions across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

VFR conditions expected to prevail for most locations thru the
forecast valid period. The exception will be across the higher
terrain of central Kansas behind a cold front on Sunday, where
MVFR stratocu is expected. Otherwise, the main impact of the front
will be the wind shift and a slight chance for isolated convection
on Sunday.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  97  67  83 /  10  30  50  20
Hutchinson      74  93  65  83 /  10  30  40  10
Newton          76  94  66  82 /  10  30  50  10
ElDorado        76  95  67  82 /   0  30  70  20
Winfield-KWLD   75  98  70  83 /   0  20  60  20
Russell         71  85  61  83 /  30  40  20   0
Great Bend      71  87  62  83 /  20  30  30  10
Salina          75  90  64  83 /  20  30  30  10
McPherson       74  91  64  82 /  10  30  40  10
Coffeyville     76  96  72  83 /   0  10  60  30
Chanute         76  95  70  83 /   0  10  60  20
Iola            77  95  70  82 /   0  20  70  20
Parsons-KPPF    76  96  72  83 /   0  10  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ053-069>072-
083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>052-067-068-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED


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