Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 302000
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
300 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

The primary challenge for the short term will be the timing of the
rain and isolated thunderstorms tonight.  Current satellite and
radar show the next disturbance pushing its way up from Oklahoma
this afternoon.  As the rain slowly pushes its way into the region
the dry air currently over the region is slowing the forward
progression down.  By the mid to late afternoon this rain will reach
the region.  Moisture transport over the past day or so has been
very weak and the NAM/HRRR/GFS/ECMWF/CONs models are all indicating
that instability is and will remain rather weak through the
afternoon and evening hours. This will keep the activity this
evening as showers for the most part.  There is a chance for an
isolated thunderstorm with this activity.  Any thunderstorms that do
occur are not expected to be strong or severe.  As this system moves
off to the east, fog and some drizzle is likely over parts of the
the western CWA during the morning Tuesday.

Tuesday, the shower activity will abate as the low pressure system
to the south and east continues to move off the east.  Winds will
kick around to the north and west and CAA will take control. This
CAA is not expected to last more than a day and is also rather weak.
As such, temperatures are not expected to drop much and are likely
to remain near normal for this time of year. By Tuesday night, a
high pressure ridge will build into the region and shift the winds
to the southeast.  WAA will return and keep Tuesday night
temperatures close to a little above normal.  This will make
Wednesday the warmest day of the week with southerly winds and
partly cloudy skies.  This will continue the evening and into
Thursday.  Thursday will again be warm but not as warm as Wednesday
as moisture transport will pick up during the night Wednesday.  This
will also bring increasing clouds Wednesday night and into Thursday
morning.  The increased cloud cover will keep the temperatures down
some Thursday.

The increased moisture transport and cloud cover is due to the next
weather system that will coming into the region.  Unlike the system
for this afternoon, this system appears to have enough moisture and
instability to trigger a round of thunderstorms along with the
shower activity.  Severe weather does not look to be widespread but
an isolated severe storm can`t be ruled out either.  The moisture
transport for Thursday evening looks strong indicating that some of
these storms could be efficient rain makers as PW values are
currently progged to be about 1-2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  The GFS/NAM both indicate this higher
possibility for heavy rain and tend to keep in Central Kansas rather
than Southeast Kansas.  Confidence on this activity is low at this
time and will need to see future model runs before confidence can
improve.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

The extended range will start out active with the system from
Thursday night moving out the region Friday morning.  As this front
moves out, a strong polar high pressure system will build into the
region.  This will kick the winds to the north and west and CAA will
regain control.  Unlike the high pressure system earlier in the
week, this high pressure system looks be much more powerful and will
bring temperatures tumbling down below normal for the end of the
week and into the weekend.  Unfortunately, this will bring the
chances for snow to mix in with the rain Thursday night and into
Friday morning.  This snow is not expected to accumulate as the
ground is now rather warm.  Temperatures will slowly recover and
will be closer to normal by Sunday and into next week. Rain chances
are minimal this weekend as well.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Main aviation concerns will be increasing rain chances along with
lowering ceilings.

Water vapor imagery shows pronounced shortwave about to move out
into the High Plains. Mid level moisture transport ahead of this
feature is resulting in showers lifting north out of OK with this
activity expected to continue into the early evening hours. While
an isolated storm cant be ruled out, the majority of the
thunderstorm activity should remain to the south. Every TAF site
should see some rain this evening, with KICT-KHUT-KCNU seeing the
most widespread activity.

As the better lift pushes east late tonight, not out of the
question to see some drizzle and fog develop after 10z, along
with lowering ceilings, especially for sites west of I-135. Did
not run with IFR levels at this time, but don`t think it`s
completely out of the question.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  66  46  69 / 100  10   0   0
Hutchinson      43  64  44  68 / 100  10   0   0
Newton          45  63  44  67 / 100  10   0   0
ElDorado        45  64  44  68 / 100  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  64  44  68 / 100  10   0   0
Russell         42  62  43  72 /  90  10   0   0
Great Bend      42  64  43  71 /  90  10   0   0
Salina          44  65  45  69 /  90  10   0   0
McPherson       43  63  44  67 /  90  10   0   0
Coffeyville     47  65  43  68 / 100  40   0   0
Chanute         46  64  43  68 / 100  40   0   0
Iola            46  64  43  68 /  90  40   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    46  64  43  68 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL



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