098
FXUS63 KICT 081142
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near 100 degrees through Tuesday before heat
 relief arrives for some by Wednesday; Much cooler for Thursday

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning
  across central KS and this afternoon across eastern KS;
  Additional rain chances Tuesday night and beyond

- Increasing potential for a strong cold front early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

As of 3 AM Tuesday morning, a midlevel ridge axis is gradually
shifting east across the MS River Valley as a shortwave trough
ejects across the northern Rockies. An attendant surface trough axis
extends from southeast CO through northwest KS and into eastern NE.
Thunderstorms accompany much of the trough axis from far northwest
KS into NE. As the shortwave trough continues to lift into into
southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the surface trough will slow its
southeastward progression. By afternoon the frontal zone is forecast
to reside from southwest KS into central KS and northeast from
there. Weak convergence along the front should allow for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. MLCAPE of 500-
1000 J/kg and effective shear values less than 20 kt will support
pulse convection. Inverted-v soundings yielding DCAPE up to 1500
J/kg will support downburst wind gusts near 60 mph. As far as
temperatures go, the airmass will remain unchanged ahead of the
front with highs surging into the low 100s across all of central,
south-central, and southeast KS.

A secondary midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the northern
Plains late tonight, pushing the surface trough axis further
southeast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue in the
vicinity of the trough axis overnight time. Transitioning into
Wednesday, the exact timing of the front will be pivotal for high
temperatures Wednesday afternoon. Areas ahead of the front are
likely to surge near 100 degrees with post-frontal areas in the 80s
or low 90s. The frontal zone should sweep across the entire forecast
area by Thursday with high temperatures in the 80s for most
locations. As the frontal zone progresses across the area, shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase as well. PW values may exceed
2" near and ahead of the front, suggesting heavy rainfall is
possible.

Transitioning into Thursday night and Friday, zonal midlevel flow
will become established across northern half of CONUS with the next
shortwave trough emerging across the Pacific northwest. The initial
cold front will slide well-southeast of the area with the next
surface trough developing across the high Plains. This will return
southerly flow to the forecast area. WAA driven showers and
thunderstorms are possible late Thursday night and Friday morning.
Temperatures will surge back into the 90s areawide Friday afternoon
ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will sweep across the
area Saturday with additional shower/thunderstorm chances as well.
This frontal passage will similar to Wednesday`s with southerly flow
quickly returning Sunday into Monday as another lee surface trough
develops across the high Plains. The frontal passage that many
Kansans have been hopeful for looks to sweep across the area during
the Monday/Tuesday timeframe of next week. A stout 1025 mb post-
frontal surface high will usher in a taste of fall with temperatures
in the 70s/80s!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly
will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, mainly across
central KS. Wind speeds will decrease to near 10 kt by 01Z. A
few thunderstorms are possible this evening across central KS
and continued the PROB30 mentions at RSL/GBD/SLN.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF