757
FXUS63 KICT 171834
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
134 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely this morning and again this afternoon/evening

- Storms may linger into the daytime hours Wednesday

- Dry and warm Thursday-Sunday with rain chances returning early
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

As of 2 AM Tuesday morning, an intense complex of thunderstorms were
progressing southward from north-central KS. Several reports of 60-
80 mph wind gusts have been observed. This complex is expected
to continue propagating southeastward on the nose of the LLJ and
the area of greatest low-level moisture transport. DCAPE values
exceeding 1000 J/kg will allow the threat for damaging winds to
continue into central/south-central KS.

Transitioning into this afternoon and tonight, the ongoing MCS will
progress southeast and ultimately dissipate. There remains some
uncertainty with the amount of destabilization that will occur this
afternoon. With the very moist boundary layer and surface heating,
it seems plausible that destabilization will occur ahead of the main
surface trough. The latest 00Z runs have shifted southward with the
position of the effective front/outflow boundary. Confidence is
greatest for the redevelopment of surface based instability
generally south of Highway 50. The expectation is for upslope flow
across southern KS into eastern CO will allow for storm development
this afternoon. Rapid upscale growth is expected across eastern
CO/western KS with the forward propagation of an intense MCS across
the southern half of KS. The chief concern with this complex is wind
gusts near 80 mph. An additional area of strong to severe
thunderstorm development is expected along the main synoptic front
near I-70. It`s uncertain whether surface based instability will
recover in time for surface based storms. Should surface based
convection develop after 3-4 PM, all hazards are possible including
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. This frontal zone will be
slow to move southward. Storm motions are likely to parallel the
boundary and will support training of convection. Short range
ensemble guidance suggests additional amounts of 1-3" with locally
higher amounts likely. Given all of the concerns above, have
hoisted a Flood Watch for the entire through midday Wednesday.
Lingering storms are possible across southeast KS Wednesday
morning into Wednesday afternoon.

Longwave, midlevel ridging will build across the area for
the second half of the week, setting the stage for drier and warmer
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

In the immediate short term, ongoing thunderstorms are the
concern which have focused along a mid level boundary. They have
generally stayed between the TAF sites but could encroach on a
couple which is why tempo groups were utilized. Amendments may
be needed given the ongoing activity.

This is a complicated forecast in trying to determine the
timing and location for the next round for many sites which
could become more surface based. There could be a longer
stretch of time with continued showers and storms. Severe storms
with up to baseball sized hail and wind gusts to 80 mph are
still a possibility, but it depends on the response in the
environment. The best chances are for KHUT and KICT to see
severe storms. Changes are likely to the forecast given
observational trends. Precipitation should shift to the east
tonight into Wednesday morning. Clouds should push east as well
with better flying conditions anticipated for Wednesday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...VJP